Confirmed Bailey Smith: 4-way trade: B. Smith (WB) & pick 45 to Geel / pick 38 to Carl / Macrae (WB) to StK / pick 17 & Kennedy (Carl) to WB

[FootyLad0]

As far as I've read, he can nominate for the ND, or say he wants to be held over to the PSD. If he nominates for the national draft, he has to set out the $ he wants (so whatever it is Geelong is offering) and he's bound to that club for 2 years.

If he's taking unders to go to Geelong, then obviously that means a higher chance someone else will take him. If he puts in a higher $, and Geelong takes him, he can't then sign for a lower amount once he gets to Geelong.

No self respecting List manager is using a highly valued first in a deep draft on a guy that doesn’t want to be there.

Geeeeeez can we sticky this to the top of the thread as well?

List managers are not putting their careers on the line to draft a guy who doesn’t want to play for them. It is the emptiest of empty threats. We saw this with Luke Ball. No one went near touching him, he put a bunch of things in place to make sure no one would.

Smith is clearly already mentally checked out of the Doggies and checked in with the Cats, he’s not suddenly going to be all in on Richmond or Norf FFS lol

He will say, “do not draft me, I will not play for you.”

But Mackie already suggested today that they are near getting this done. Reckon it’s a bunch of beat up by the media.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

List managers are not putting their careers on the line to draft a guy who doesn’t want to play for them.

That's a fair enough statement (as is the rest of it). Other clubs might be wary of his output at a club that he doesn't want to be at.

highly valued first in a deep draft

But this is irrelevant. His expected future output is far greater than a non-top 10's future output, even in a "deep" draft. If you can be fairly certain that he is motivated to play well, his expected output is better than pick 10 in the draft. Pick 10's in recent years include Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Lochie O'Brien, Nathan Freeman and Nakia Cockatoo. Teams would gladly take Bailey Smith assuming he's as motivated as any draftee would be, rather than take pick 10 into a deep draft, to completely avoid the possibility they would bomb out and draft a Nathan Freeman instead.

I agree that teams may not draft Smith as an unmotivated player (and they he may work with Geelong to structure his salary in a way that makes it hard for teams to fit him in their salary cap anyway), but purely on footballing talent, the fact that it's a deep draft does not matter. He is a better talent than Geelong's first pick in the national draft.

 

[Xtreme]

Sam Power seemed to insinuate that they're going to ask for something similar to what Smith cost when they drafted him (pick 7)

Good

Take them to the cleaners Bevo!!

 

[Warwick]

Another year, another chance for Sam Power

Sam Power

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7.8

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3.8

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4.0

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1.8

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1.6

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to showcase those incredible hardball negotiating skills..

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm pretty sure we asked for a top 10 with Clark and ended up settling for 22 and an F3.

It was pick 8 we asked for incidentally

 

[CatToTheFuture]

ND not PSD. Geesus that should be stickied to the top of the thread.

I would prefer writing some code that, whenever someone hit post in this thread containing the text string " psd " that their phone immediately turned the volume up and made a sad trombone sound.

 

[LOZWILDA]

Richmond paying Hopper and Taranto $1m x 7
Hawthorn paying Josh Battle and $900k x 6 and Tom Barrass something similar

At least the players we rort the cap for are actually worth the price of admission. Zac Guthrie makes Battle look like an under-9 and he'd be lucky to be on $400k

Richmond paying Taranto and Hopper $750,000 a year for 7 years.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[JackOutback]

It was pick 8 we asked for incidentally

But that's kinda Geelong's modus operandi... ask for the world but offer crumbs.

 

[Ash1337]

Dogs are trying to trade their F1 into this year separate to the smith trade. Expecting to target Dons pick 9. If Smith goes to the ND there's a potential dogs at 9/10 and GWS at 15/16/17. Geelong will have to trade up in ND to secure Smith. The risk is high for Smith to end up at another club if the deal falls through.

Why I think GWS will jump on Smith? Have you seen their outs atm? They lost a lot of experience this trade and potentially more. If Smith is in the ND They'll take them with their 2nd first if he's there. He'll be worth the risk to have him for a year. He's not going to sit out a year after having already been out 1 year with an ACL.

That said a trade will get done just speaking hypotheticals.

 

[STPer18]

But that's kinda Geelong's modus operandi... ask for the world but offer crumbs.

If it ain't broke...

 

[fpm84]

My opinion is that a fair deal would be the F1 & current 2nd for Smith outright. Ultimately I think we'll bend a little and accept the current '1st' and a F2 with later pick swaps heading our way.

Ultimately the club would like a package similar to Dunkley which would land at the current 1st + F1 + F2 but Dunkley was the best and fairest winner that season.

Close to the mark IMO, I've said all along the centrepieces of the deal will be current 1st and F2nd, maybe later swaps.

No reasonable Geelong supporter is suggesting we get him for a late first alone, but Dogs fans adamant we'll give up two firsts are wide of the mark.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

But that's kinda Geelong's modus operandi... ask for the world but offer crumbs.

Everyone starts with an opening offer like that on trades like this.

 

[fpm84]

Dogs are trying to trade their F1 into this year separate to the smith trade. Expecting to target Dons pick 9. If Smith goes to the ND there's a potential dogs at 9/10 and GWS at 15/16/17. Geelong will have to trade up in ND to secure Smith. The risk is high for Smith to end up at another club if the deal falls through.

You're not suggesting the Dogs would use a top 10 pick to re-draft a disgruntled player? The AFLPA would have a bit to say about that, and it seems to me that the relationship between Bevo and Bailey is beyond the point of no return.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Dogs are trying to trade their F1 into this year separate to the smith trade. Expecting to target Dons pick 9. If Smith goes to the ND there's a potential dogs at 9/10 and GWS at 15/16/17. Geelong will have to trade up in ND to secure Smith. The risk is high for Smith to end up at another club if the deal falls through.

Why I think GWS will jump on Smith? Have you seen their outs atm? They lost a lot of experience this trade and potentially more. If Smith is in the ND They'll take them with their 2nd first if he's there. He'll be worth the risk to have him for a year. He's not going to sit out a year after having already been out 1 year with an ACL.

That said a trade will get done just speaking hypotheticals.

The dogs are not selecting Smith in the draft. That is nonsense. GWS have enough player retention issues without adding a guy who doesn't want to be there going in.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

You're not suggesting the Dogs would use a top 10 pick to re-draft a disgruntled player? The AFLPA would have a bit to say about that,

Why?
The AFLPA could have pushed for more expansive free agency rights with a trad- off of taking less money.

They didn't.

So Bailey Smith has to accept that much like the national draft itself, his fate is not in his own hands, and that if he wanted that to be the case, he had the option of accepting the Dogs' two year deal.

I'm not going to pretend that another club drafting Smith is a reasonable chance to happen (like other Dogs fans are) but at the same time it's not a non-zero chance, and its through that fact that we know other trades have occurred in the past.

 

[JackOutback]

The dogs are not selecting Smith in the draft. That is nonsense. GWS have enough player retention issues without adding a guy who doesn't want to be there going in.

GWS are in a premiership window, taking on a player knowing he will leave at the earliest opportunity may actually be worth it.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

GWS are in a premiership window, taking on a player knowing he will leave at the earliest opportunity may actually be worth it.

They will absolutely not be taking a Victorian who actively doesn't want to be there. I don't think you get how poisonous that is to a playing group that already has people that would probably rather be playing in Vic. Of all the teams that would even consider it GWS is not one of them.

 

[Ashman23]

If Bailey would end up only being picked in the ND by Geelong and Geelong only, why don't the Cats just stop negotiating with the Western Bulldogs as the pick they'll be using will be less than giving that pick to the Doggies 'plus more'.

Why would Geelong care if they 'screw over' the Doggies?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If Bailey would end up only being picked in the ND by Geelong and Geelong only, why don't the Cats just stop negotiating with the Western Bulldogs as the pick they'll be using will be less than giving that pick to the Doggies 'plus more'.

Why would Geelong care if they 'screw over' the Doggies?

Yep, that's the whole point, the act of being drafted is less smooth than the act of being traded (obviously).

While it might still be true that he is almost certainly going to Geelong, Geelong fans act as if that statement isn't true.

 

[Sewer de Lance]

If Bailey can recapture some of his best form, Geelong would get an absolute steal if they can manipulate the WBD in accepting a late 1st Round. Mackie is talking like the deal is a fait accompli. If you really want him, cough up his true worth you absolute tight arse.

 

[TylerDurden]

Mackie v Power will be no push over negotiation.

Can see Power sending this to the PSD. He won't be bent over.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Draft him then wait for the AFL to hand out a top 5 pick with FA compo when he hits free agency.

Who cares if he plays in 2025?

What did North get for Ben McKay

32

Ben Mckay

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7.5

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4.5

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3.0

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- pick 3 wasn’t it?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Mackie is talking like the deal is a fait accompli. If you really want him, cough up his true worth you absolute tight arse.

Where in that interview gives off 'fait accompli' vibes, or does it suggest not paying a fair price?????

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Where in that interview gives off 'fait accompli' vibes, or does it suggest not paying a fair price?????

I think you're missing the added context of a panicked echo chamber full of baseless innuendo there.

 

[Wojcinski]

I find it almost unbelievable that so many people are missing the fact that Smith would nominate for the ND (not the PSD) where Geelong would use their first round pick to select him. There is almost zero risk to Smith or Geelong as no other team is going to use a first round pick on him. It'd be a huge win for Geelong as it means they get Smith for a single first round pick AND they weaken the Bulldogs draft hand as they now don't get to use the pick.