Confirmed Bailey Smith: 4-way trade: B. Smith (WB) & pick 45 to Geel / pick 38 to Carl / Macrae (WB) to StK / pick 17 & Kennedy (Carl) to WB

[Pure_Ownage]

You lose the benefit of the doubt now sorry. Successful all the time, making prelims without trying, turning everyone into stars. You're trading for an under 25 year old now, I suppose you extorted Pies as well (on Henry) but if you end missing finals next year it's not crippling you, nothing does.

Two firsts with a 2nd back should be a remotely fair trade considering Geelong's history of success

If they were 16 and 16 for baz and 25 sure. But next years 1st is likely top 10 so no.

 

[supahoops]

This seems like a classic two firsts with a second going back the other way trade.

Geelong are beginning to get a rep for being difficult to deal with at the trade table though, so I expect this one to go on for a while.

No we’re not. How were you with the Caddy trade - Caddy & 56 for 24 & 64, that would seem the most relevant from your point of view. Drafted at at a similar original pick & traded at a similar age..

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

If they were 16 and 16 for baz and 25 sure. But next years 1st is likely top 10 so no.

Nup, not copping that "next years is likely top 10". This year is the final straw, your future pick should be valued as 16+ until proven otherwise for like 5 years.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Nup, not copping that "next years is likely top 10". This year is the final straw, your future pick should be valued as 16+ until proven otherwise for like 5 years.

Thats very unlikely if you look at the list age wise the cliff is coming.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Thats very unlikely if you look at the list age wise the cliff is coming.

Nice try, you lost that chip 5 years ago.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Thats very unlikely if you look at the list age wise the cliff is coming.

When was the last time Geelong fell off a cliff. You sound like a Hawks supporter.
Geelong has been top 4 about 65% of the time over the last 20 years. Chances are favourable that they will be top 4 next year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don't know why Cats fans are even hesitant on paying the two (very late) firsts. If there's any club that can bet a future 1st comfortably, it's the Cats who basically make a prelim every year. ACLs don't seem as career threatening as they used to, particularly when done youngish.

At least this one will keep trade radio busy for the full two weeks.

Probably losing more games experience than North did in 2016.

As a summary the Cats are 12-3 with Dangerfield playing this year and 3-5 without.

He is 35 years old next year.

To say this year was a gift is really understating it

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Nice try, you lost that chip 5 years ago.

Our list was younger 5 years ago. And next year will be the first in nearly 20 with no selwood or hawkins and danger is 35.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

When was the last time Geelong fell off a cliff. You sound like a Hawks supporter.
Geelong has been top 4 about 65% of the time over the last 20 years. Chances are favourable that they will be top 4 next year.

Its niave to think that can keep happening forever.

 

[TylerDurden]

Cotton On deal under massive scrutiny by the AFL already.

This whole thing sounds so messy.

No wonder he hasn't nominated yet.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Its niave to think that can keep happening forever.

It won't happen forever, but history suggests that you will be top 4 next year. Of course you may not finish top 4, but if I had to bet my life on it, I would go with Geelong being top 4 again in 2025.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Cotton On deal under massive scrutiny by the AFL already.

This whole thing sounds so messy.

No wonder he hasn't nominated yet.

See

I actually think that if he did come to Geelong that his agreement with cotton on would end up having to sunset at the end of whatever terms he's signed to. If the agreement renewed I doubt it would be expanded.

Then he'd still probably do work for the through the club but for free.

I could see his relationship with cotton on being a net financial negative if he came to Geelong versus stayed in Melbourne.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Our list was younger 5 years ago. And next year will be the first in nearly 20 with no selwood or hawkins and danger is 35.

Probably losing more games experience than North did in 2016.

As a summary the Cats are 12-3 with Dangerfield playing this year and 3-5 without.

He is 35 years old next year.

To say this year was a gift is really understating it

I have no skin in this, just having fun but if I'm Power I am not trading him there unless it's both 1sts. Geelong can risk losing a trade for once and the best run club in the land for nigh on 20 years shouldn't be able to argue they aren't making a prelim AGAIN in valuing it's future 1st.

Pick 15/16/17/18 into God knows what on draft night shouldn't be close

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I have no skin in this, just having fun but if I'm Power I am not trading him there unless it's both 1sts. Geelong can risk losing a trade for once and the best run club in the land for nigh on 20 years shouldn't be able to argue they aren't making a prelim AGAIN in valuing it's future 1st.

Pick 15/16/17/18 into God knows what on draft night shouldn't be close

It will be more than 15 probably that and a future 2nd.

As for the rest i dont think power has a realistic alternative.

 

[FootyLad0]

Nice try, you lost that chip 5 years ago.

I swear i remember us finishing 12th and picking 10th in the Draft?...
And that was heading into 2024 Season, not even 5 years ago.

 

[PurpJuice]

It will be more than 15 probably that and a future 2nd.

As for the rest i dont think power has a realistic alternative.

All aboard the roundabout

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I swear i remember us finishing 12th and picking 10th in the Draft?...
And that was heading into 2024 Season, not even 5 years ago.

Pfft, fine, I picked a random year and it was one of like 2 times in forever you've missed finals.

TWO FIRSTS OR WE RIOT!!!

 

[FootyLad0]

Pfft, fine, I picked a random year and it was one of like 2 times in forever you've missed finals.

TWO FIRSTS OR WE RIOT!!!

Ok, they can have from us?....Gold Coast's First from 2024 annnnnd....

Gold Coast's first from 2025.

Deal!

 

[SweatOnMySkin]

the age cliff is coming for real guys, trust us next year it's real, definitely top 10 pick. geelong fans say as they simultaneously trade in a 23yo midfielder

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I have no skin in this, just having fun but if I'm Power I am not trading him there unless it's both 1sts. Geelong can risk losing a trade for once and the best run club in the land for nigh on 20 years shouldn't be able to argue they aren't making a prelim AGAIN in valuing it's future 1st.

Pick 15/16/17/18 into God knows what on draft night shouldn't be close

There's room for both schools of thought here I reckon.

PO is massively overdoing it acting like it's a certainty, but he's not totally wrong either.

If you could guarantee the Cats have an identical (or better) injury run next year, then I'd do the deal.

The problem is you can't guarantee that, and that's why they're list managers, and it's why we're guys on a footy forum.

The whole 'cliff narrative' the Geelong posters are talking about has nothing to do with the names on paper.

Adding Smith, as well as another pre-season into the kids will hold us in good stead to compete again if we stay fit.

The worry is our lack of depth. As CatToTheFuture points out, the experience leaving at the end of this year is no joke.

If we cop some injuries it'll literally be draftees taking their spots, rather than Rohan, Parfitt, Touhy, Stanley, Bews, Hawkins & even Duncan, who have been the fringe guys this year on top of the youngsters.

2023 would be the obvious example. On paper, that side had just as much talent - if not more - than the 2022 model, but if you get unlucky with injuries the drop off is huge.

I can totally understand the Dogs supporters asking for the future first, but by that same token, you have to understand why Cats supporters are wary of giving up the future first. It goes both ways.

It's all academic, as it's not like we have any say regardless lmao.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Ok, they can have from us?....Gold Coast's First from 2024 annnnnd....

Gold Coast's first from 2025.

Deal!

Hmm, so long as you are suffering to get GC F1 then ill allow it.

 

[Ash1337]

The way the cats are playing this season with their list it's very unlikely they wont be in finals contention next season. They find ways to compete. That's something most teams cant figure out.

 

[bzparkes]

I mean, the cats could take pick 1 off the table and just offer 2nd rounder. Take our first to the draft. WB can take it or leave it.

Then they'll probably leave it and let Smith play for Richmond.

That'll do wonders for future players requesting a trade to Geelong, knowing that Geelong will try to lowball and they'll end up playing elsewhere

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

There's room for both schools of thought here I reckon.

PO is massively overdoing it acting like it's a certainty, but he's not totally wrong either.

If you could guarantee the Cats have an identical (or better) injury run next year, then I'd do the deal.

The problem is you can't guarantee that, and that's why they're list managers, and it's why we're guys on a footy forum.

The whole 'cliff narrative' the Geelong posters are talking about has nothing to do with the names on paper.

Adding Smith, as well as another pre-season into the kids will hold us in good stead to compete again if we stay fit.

The worry is our lack of depth. As CatToTheFuture points out, the experience leaving at the end of this year is no joke.

If we cop some injuries it'll literally be draftees taking their spots, rather than Rohan, Parfitt, Touhy, Stanley, Bews, Hawkins & even Duncan, who have been the fringe guys this year.

2023 would be the obvious example. On paper, that side had just as much talent - if not more - than the 2022 model, but if you get unlucky with injuries the drop off is huge.

I can totally understand the Dogs supporters asking for the future first, but by that same token, you have to understand why Cats supporters are wary of giving up the future first. It goes both ways.

It's all academic, as it's not like we have any say regardless lmao.

The problem is in applying logic to a team that uses voodoo magic to never fall down the ladder like everyone else. You can apply all sorts of reasoning but I'm not buying it anymore until you actually fall down for more than a year. Cats supporters being weary of falling is like Essendon or Freo supporters thinking they can a flag. Cute, but not based in reality.

TWO FIRSTS OR RIOT

 

[SweatOnMySkin]

There's room for both schools of thought here I reckon.

PO is massively overdoing it acting like it's a certainty, but he's not totally wrong either.

If you could guarantee the Cats have an identical (or better) injury run next year, then I'd do the deal.

The problem is you can't guarantee that, and that's why they're list managers, and it's why we're guys on a footy forum.

The whole 'cliff narrative' the Geelong posters are talking about has nothing to do with the names on paper.

Adding Smith, as well as another pre-season into the kids will hold us in good stead to compete again if we stay fit.

The worry is our lack of depth. As CatToTheFuture points out, the experience leaving at the end of this year is no joke.

If we cop some injuries it'll literally be draftees taking their spots, rather than Rohan, Parfitt, Touhy, Stanley, Bews, Hawkins & even Duncan, who have been the fringe guys this year on top of the youngsters.

2023 would be the obvious example. On paper, that side had just as much talent - if not more - than the 2022 model, but if you get unlucky with injuries the drop off is huge.

I can totally understand the Dogs supporters asking for the future first, but by that same token, you have to understand why Cats supporters are wary of giving up the future first. It goes both ways.

It's all academic, as it's not like we have any say regardless lmao.

agree with all of this but it's still fun to argue on the internet sometimes.
I dont see a tonne of risk for Geelong though to be honest. They have the ability to attract talent, even if they somehow end up having a shocker in 25 and overpay they're one fo the best equipped clubs to bounce back. Mostly through their ability to retain players and attract new targets and free agents.

I think this is probably the part some Cats fans maybe dont get or possibly can't empathise with, and thats that the Dogs have much more to lose in this deal than Geelong by not getting paid properly. We dont have that ability to just raid free agency next year for some big ticket players or lineup the next big interstate go-homer ina couple of years. We rely on the draft, and the club owes it to itself to make sure Geelong pay what they see as being at least moderately fair. They'll threaten the chaos option and are crazy enough to follow through on it