Bluemour Discussion Thread XV - Facts Not Welcome

[Gethelred]

Don't understand your point here. Richmond already built their list and won the comp, Melbourne are still building, they don't have an x factor small forward yet. Melksham is a rehashed midfielder. Garlett is old and soft.
Essendon list build is wildly incomparable to anything because of the top up players but most would agree they've got the smalls but not the inside midfield grunt, and it's hurting them. A lot. Collingwood spent 5 years out of finals and have a really unique list composition, where true Kpps are seemingly Dunn And Cox. Who saw those two leading a grand final team at each end.

I really don't know why Essendon wasn't in the market for SPP when Port spruiked his services. He'd be perfect for them in terms of what they need to be a better side, and they don't have to make him a dick upon arrival.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

There's a massive difference in what everyone thinks and reality. Everyone thought wrong re West coasts midfield. Clearly. Except for them, internally they obviously new what they had coming through. Also, We haven't been trying to find a small forward at all. We've not drafted a player in the national draft as a small forward since SOS started. We've used stop gaps like Wright and virtual free hits like Pickett. Nothing premium like the high picks that rioli cost. They're not hard to find.

You can say that about anything really. Look how much we have invested on tall defenders. Most teams find them easy to find. SOS used pick 4 on Pickett trying to find a small forward. I could be wrong but not sure he has actually ever recruited a successful one???
Brodie also.
Agresta at least was there for Papley and Ronke.
They play a huge role you don’t just punt on being able to find one when the time is right imo

 

[CJMB]

I really don't know why Essendon wasn't in the market for SPP when Port spruiked his services. He'd be perfect for them in terms of what they need to be a better side, and they don't have to make him a dick upon arrival.

Does feel like they haven't put much effort into bringing in a genuine inside mid. Hell, Dom Tyson would have been good for them this season in reducing the amount of heavy lifting required by Merrett, Heppell, Smith, Shiel, Zaharakis, etc who all probably work better leaving the stoppage/congestion or simply operating in space.

Perhaps they have some belief in one or two of the younger guys coming, maybe Langford, or perhaps Myers somehow having a career revival, or maybe they're just going to continue the all-guns-blazing approach and hope the opposition doesn't reign them in and apply too much physical pressure.

I'm looking forward to when we play them, hopefully we'll bully them again.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Don't understand your point here. Richmond already built their list and won the comp, Melbourne are still building, they don't have an x factor small forward yet. Melksham is a rehashed midfielder. Garlett is old and soft.
Essendon list build is wildly incomparable to anything because of the top up players but most would agree they've got the smalls but not the inside midfield grunt, and it's hurting them. A lot. Collingwood spent 5 years out of finals and have a really unique list composition, where true Kpps are seemingly Dunn And Cox. Who saw those two leading a grand final team at each end.

You said players like Prestia don’t come available often compared to small forwards. Im showing possible key pieces of sides come along every year.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Does feel like they haven't put much effort into bringing in a genuine inside mid. Hell, Dom Tyson would have been good for them this season in reducing the amount of heavy lifting required by Merrett, Heppell, Smith, Shiel, Zaharakis, etc who all probably work better leaving the stoppage/congestion or simply operating in space.

Perhaps they have some belief in one or two of the younger guys coming, maybe Langford, or perhaps Myers somehow having a career revival, or maybe they're just going to continue the all-guns-blazing approach and hope the opposition doesn't reign them in and apply too much physical pressure.

I'm looking forward to when we play them, hopefully we'll bully them again.

They remind me a lot of West Coast in that they have 6 proper forwards and backs. Their midfield isn’t perfectly balanced but they are electric. People are forgetting McGragh too who will most likely play midfield/wing.
They’ll be one of the best teams to watch. If they are winning it’ll be exciting footy and if they are losing it’ll be hilarious

 

[ODNBlue]

They remind me a lot of West Coast in that they have 6 proper forwards and backs. Their midfield isn’t perfectly balanced but they are electric. People are forgetting McGragh too who will most likely play midfield/wing.
They’ll be one of the best teams to watch. If they are winning it’ll be exciting footy and if they are losing it’ll be hilarious

Well, let's hope it's the latter then.

 

[gbatman]

You just don't need small forwards who kick bags, I'm not seeing premierships won by heaps of teams who have small forwards are kicking heaps of goals, yeah some get their two a game and they are elite but you don't need it if you have good talls, pressure and a spread of goal kickers. What I am seeing is teams win Premierships with small forwards who work well as a team, apply good pressure and get that 1 - 1.5 goals per game. kick some goals, apply pressure and contribute through the midfield. Do that and we're right up there.

Premiers above 20 goal kickers

Hawthorn 2015 - Gunston (57), Breust (52), Roughead (50), Rioli (42), Puopolo (23), Smith (23), Hodge (21)
Bulldogs 2016 - Stringer (42), Dickson (40), Bontempelli (26), Redpath 20.
Richmond 2017 - Riewoldt (54), Martin (37), Butler (30), Castagna (26), Rioli (25), Caddy (21), the rest under 20.
West Coast 2018 - Darling (48), Kennedy (43), Cripps (38), LeCras (32), Rioli (28), Ryan 20.


Seems to be that having six players kick 20+ goals is about on the mark. Obviously there are other ways of getting there and who is to say we aren't going to have success without bucking the trend. Maybe we can have less players with 20 goals and 10 players with 15+ with high rotations or something like that.

The big questions are for me is who in our side will kick 40+ and who will kick 20+

40+
McKay - What he averaged last season and expected improvement suggests he's likely to be there soon.
Curnow - We all know what a gun he is and is likely to be there soon.
McGovern - Hope is that he gets fit and gets there soon but maybe not this season.

20+
Fisher - If he plays 70-80% forward Like I think he might then he'll kick over 20. I think he's capable of getting in the 30's.
Fasolo - Has kicked high 20's in 4 seasons so he's capable but might not offer enough pressure or rotations.
Polson - A young player who is yet to get there but not expected to be there. Let's hope he gets to that level.
Gibbons - A VFL star who was a midfielder who kicked goals but more time forward he could be a real goal kicker and maybe that pressure forward who kicks 20+
Murphy - At his best is a .5-.7 goals per game midfielder. With more midfield time he could be a 20+ goals per season player.
Curnow - Does like a goal but always plays most of his minutes in the midfield, could surprise people and be around the 20 mark but most likely high teens.

We also don't know what Walsh, Setterfield, Cripps, and Stocker are capable up forward. For all we know Garlett might pull his finger out but I think we are done with trying to make a forward out of him. Does Silvagni kick goals in out side?

I think with a good midfield feeding us we can kick enough goals, but can we also apply enough pressure? It's all going to unfold and it's going to be interesting to see. We're only just starting to come into a period where we should be able to kick enough goals so fun times ahead. If we find we don't have the players we will just have to get them.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You just don't need small forwards who kick bags, I'm not seeing premierships won by heaps of teams who have small forwards are kicking heaps of goals, yeah some get their two a game and they are elite but you don't need it if you have good talls, pressure and a spread of goal kickers. What I am seeing is teams win Premierships with small forwards who work well as a team, apply good pressure and get that 1 - 1.5 goals per game. kick some goals, apply pressure and contribute through the midfield. Do that and we're right up there.

Premiers above 20 goal kickers

Hawthorn 2015 - Gunston (57), Breust (52), Roughead (50), Rioli (42), Puopolo (23), Smith (23), Hodge (21)
Bulldogs 2016 - Stringer (42), Dickson (40), Bontempelli (26), Redpath 20.
Richmond 2017 - Riewoldt (54), Martin (37), Butler (30), Castagna (26), Rioli (25), Caddy (21), the rest under 20.
West Coast 2018 - Darling (48), Kennedy (43), Cripps (38), LeCras (32), Rioli (28), Ryan 20.


Seems to be that having six players kick 20+ goals is about on the mark. Obviously there are other ways of getting there and who is to say we aren't going to have success without bucking the trend. Maybe we can have less players with 20 goals and 10 players with 15+ with high rotations or something like that.

The big questions are for me is who in our side will kick 40+ and who will kick 20+

40+
McKay - What he averaged last season and expected improvement suggests he's likely to be there soon.
Curnow - We all know what a gun he is and is likely to be there soon.
McGovern - Hope is that he gets fit and gets there soon but maybe not this season.

20+
Fisher - If he plays 70-80% forward Like I think he might then he'll kick over 20. I think he's capable of getting in the 30's.
Fasolo - Has kicked high 20's in 4 seasons so he's capable but might not offer enough pressure or rotations.
Polson - A young player who is yet to get there but not expected to be there. Let's hope he gets to that level.
Gibbons - A VFL star who was a midfielder who kicked goals but more time forward he could be a real goal kicker and maybe that pressure forward who kicks 20+
Murphy - At his best is a .5-.7 goals per game midfielder. With more midfield time he could be a 20+ goals per season player.
Curnow - Does like a goal but always plays most of his minutes in the midfield, could surprise people and be around the 20 mark but most likely high teens.

We also don't know what Walsh, Setterfield, Cripps, and Stocker are capable up forward. For all we know Garlett might pull his finger out but I think we are done with trying to make a forward out of him. Does Silvagni kick goals in out side?

I think with a good midfield feeding us we can kick enough goals, but can we also apply enough pressure? It's all going to unfold and it's going to be interesting to see. We're only just starting to come into a period where we should be able to kick enough goals so fun times ahead. If we find we don't have the players we will just have to get them.

All those teams bar the Dogs had three proper near full time small forwards do it

 

[gbatman]

All those teams bar the Dogs had three proper near full time small forwards do it

A lot of them played a bit of midfield too, not much but it's not uncommon to see a lot of them play a little on the wings at times. That being said, it doesn't mean we have to go down that path of having permanent small forwards. I think in an ideal world where we can afford to Fisher is a 80% forward 20% mid. Fasolo is a 100% forward but he could probably do some minutes on a wing. Murphy could probably be a 50/50 or 80% like fisher. Polson is probably a permanent forward though he could probably go into the middle a bit if he gets good enough. Gibbons could play permanent forward but will likely rotate through the middle.

It's all going to come down to structure. If we're playing permanent small forwards one or two in the team means we only have one or two forward/mids. So we'll need the bench stocked up with midfielders. Although that is how it's going to be anyway I feel.

End of the day, we may win a flag with no permanent forwards and a group of midfielders and forwards who all rotate a bit, then everyone will be going on about how the game is changed and they should all be trying to copy us. It's doable, it's just not that common for a team to have that many players who are elite in the midfield and the forward line.

Some players are elite in the midfield and forward line but in good sides they mostly play forward because those sides often need forwards and have the luxury of not needing those/that player in the midfield. I think this is why Fisher will play mostly forward when our midfield is really strong. I see him playing a very similar role to Cyril Rioli.

The other thing is, apart from Rioli in '15 those small forwards weren't big goal kickers. They were pressure players who kicked 1 - 1.5 goals per game.

It's going to be a big auditioning process.

 

[Broadside]

Marc Murphy seems to me to be a really likely small forward who will spend less time in the midfield. Let's use his class as a finisher if our midfield now has depth.

 

[gbatman]

Building a midfield that is good enough and deep enough where we can afford to play guys like Murphy and Fisher forward will really add class to that end and if we happen to find other options well then great. Surely it's not hard to find players who are quick and apply great pressure up forward and kick around 20+ goals per game.

I think people are underselling what we have a bit because those players have been playing midfield, playing VFL and are only 20 years old give or take.

If we get to the end of next season and we find we have midfielders who can kick 20+ goals per game and really impact up forward or we have forwards who can really impact the midfield it will give our recruiting team some serious options.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

A lot of them played a bit of midfield too, not much but it's not uncommon to see a lot of them play a little on the wings at times. That being said, it doesn't mean we have to go down that path of having permanent small forwards. I think in an ideal world where we can afford to Fisher is a 80% forward 20% mid. Fasolo is a 100% forward but he could probably do some minutes on a wing. Murphy could probably be a 50/50 or 80% like fisher. Polson is probably a permanent forward though he could probably go into the middle a bit if he gets good enough. Gibbons could play permanent forward but will likely rotate through the middle.

It's all going to come down to structure. If we're playing permanent small forwards one or two in the team means we only have one or two forward/mids. So we'll need the bench stocked up with midfielders. Although that is how it's going to be anyway I feel.

End of the day, we may win a flag with no permanent forwards and a group of midfielders and forwards who all rotate a bit, then everyone will be going on about how the game is changed and they should all be trying to copy us. It's doable, it's just not that common for a team to have that many players who are elite in the midfield and the forward line.

Some players are elite in the midfield and forward line but in good sides they mostly play forward because those sides often need forwards and have the luxury of not needing those/that player in the midfield. I think this is why Fisher will play mostly forward when our midfield is really strong. I see him playing a very similar role to Cyril Rioli.

The other thing is, apart from Rioli in '15 those small forwards weren't big goal kickers. They were pressure players who kicked 1 - 1.5 goals per game.

It's going to be a big auditioning process.

Do you mean ‘15 because Breust kicked 50 odd and Poppy kicked 29?
In 17 you’re right but they are a lot more of natural forwards than our lot (including mids) they also are way more mobile than our mids bar Fisher who we could play large chunks of time forward.

The thing I see with our setup is we will most likely have 3 proper midfielders coming off the bench anyway. With the other more a utility/flanker. Why play good mids who are only handy forwards forward for large amount of times when you can play good forwards forward. You can only have 18 on the field at any one time. The majority of our midfield rotations should come from the bench to allow us as many players as possible on the ground to be very good at the position they are playing.

 

[Styxx]

What the hell is that? Why can't the cartoons these days be normal like in my day. Simple shows like Ren and Stimpy or BananaMan.

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True story, have a Bananaman tattoo on my left forearm.

 

[norway blue]

I don't subscribe (although maybe it should be prescribe) to some of the blind optimism around here .... and this is a bit of a grim read - but looking at the spread of goals from last year - http://www.carltonfc.com.au/footy/player-statistics (click on the goals total column to sort descending), we're starting at such a low base there just has to be some significant improvement .... barring another injury apocalypse.

Glass half full - I can see Cripps and Fisher kicking 15-20 from the Mid/HFF - I can see McGovern (assuming he spends the majority of games forward) and Fasolo kicking 20-30 - and I can see Curnow and McKay kicking 30-40.

If some of Kennedy, Setterfield, Murphy, Polson, SPS, Dow can all chip in with ~10 .... then it's starting to look a bit better.

Obviously lots of assumptions here about not getting smashed in the midfield and getting some quality supply forward.

Agree with the second last paragraph . All our midfielders to kick 9 or ten each. Coupled with the three talls , Faz and our new desperate , defensive goal kicking mongrel small forward .


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[Curnivore]

Agree with the second last paragraph . All our midfielders to kick 9 or ten each. Coupled with the three talls , Faz and our new desperate , defensive goal kicking mongrel small forward .


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Faz is a good player, and I think he is great get. But he doesn't play desperate, mongral, defensive football.

 

[Funk]

speaking of which, do we play in the Gold Coast this year?

Yes - and fortuitously I’ll be there

 

[Blue and Blue]

Agree with the second last paragraph . All our midfielders to kick 9 or ten each week. Coupled with the three talls , Faz and our new desperate , defensive goal kicking mongrel small forward .


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[LanceRomance]

Lachie Neale goes alright at 177cm - if Gibbons is good enough (and I think he is) he’ll make it.

PS - Zac Fisher is 175cm and I’m more than happy with him

There is no way fisher is actually that tall

 

[AceAndy]

There is no way fisher is actually that tall

That is his listed height on the club website.

 

[therubbernub]

Most teams find them easy to find. SOS used pick 4 on Pickett trying to find a small forward.

Really?

 

[HARKER]

20+
Fisher - If he plays 70-80% forward Like I think he might then he'll kick over 20. I think he's capable of getting in the 30's.
Fasolo - Has kicked high 20's in 4 seasons so he's capable but might not offer enough pressure or rotations.
Polson - A young player who is yet to get there but not expected to be there. Let's hope he gets to that level.
Gibbons - A VFL star who was a midfielder who kicked goals but more time forward he could be a real goal kicker and maybe that pressure forward who kicks 20+
Murphy - At his best is a .5-.7 goals per game midfielder. With more midfield time he could be a 20+ goals per season player.
Curnow - Does like a goal but always plays most of his minutes in the midfield, could surprise people and be around the 20 mark but most likely high teens.

We also don't know what Walsh, Setterfield, Cripps, and Stocker are capable up forward. For all we know Garlett might pull his finger out but I think we are done with trying to make a forward out of him. Does Silvagni kick goals in out side?

I think with a good midfield feeding us we can kick enough goals, but can we also apply enough pressure? It's all going to unfold and it's going to be interesting to see. We're only just starting to come into a period where we should be able to kick enough goals so fun times ahead. If we find we don't have the players we will just have to get them.

That's extremely ambitious on the 20+ goals there, gbatman.
We make it all sound so easy, but it's just not.

Fasolo and Murphy are the only two that to me (at least at this stage) seem remotely capable of kicking 20+ goals.
I'd like to see Fisher included, but don't think that's his go either. He's dangerous running into goal, but don't see in him, the player that can make things happen on both sides of his body. That alone will limit his ability to kick goals.

Ed Curnow has kicked 27 goals in 143 games but now he's going to run at a 1:1 ratio. Not going to happen and as for Polson & Gibbons.......Just can't believe in miracles.

 

[Stefchook]

While I agree with most of what you say, I can't imagine Fisher's one-sidedness will inhibit his goalkicking anymore than it does the other one-sided offensive players, like Buddy, etc.

 

[albyg]

He quit on us while contracted. Thanks but no thanks. I'd rather give opportunity to someone who has been working their bum off trying to get on a list.

Had plenty of talent and potential, but none of it was realised. As soon as it looked like he was coming good afternoon doing his knee, he bolts.

If players aren't fully invested we won't get anywhere.

So please explain why you'd like him on the list.

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I understand your frustration however he's on the other side of the world, we don't know what goes on behind closed doors. So happy to give him another chance.

 

[therubbernub]

Faz is a good player, and I think he is great get. But he doesn't play desperate, mongral, defensive football.

Yet

 

[gbatman]

That's extremely ambitious on the 20+ goals there, gbatman.
We make it all sound so easy, but it's just not.

Fasolo and Murphy are the only two that to me (at least at this stage) seem remotely capable of kicking 20+ goals.
I'd like to see Fisher included, but don't think that's his go either. He's dangerous running into goal, but don't see in him, the player that can make things happen on both sides of his body. That alone will limit his ability to kick goals.

Ed Curnow has kicked 27 goals in 143 games but now he's going to run at a 1:1 ratio. Not going to happen and as for Polson & Gibbons.......Just can't believe in miracles.

Well it's the great unknown. If a short and slow Matthew Wright who wasn't good enough for the midfield could average one goal a game in the worst side in the competition I don't see why quicker and more classier players can't do it or better in a side that will hopefully be much better.

These guys will be playing roles they have never had the opportunity to play because our midfield has been so weak for, well, this entire century!

Murphy there was a three year period where he average 0.86 - 1.35 goals per game and he's always been a midfielder. I think with a lot more forward time in a strong side he's a 30+ goal player.

Fisher to me just screams class. He's either applying elite pressure or he doing the quick clean movements and able to kick goals but for us he's mostly been a midfielder.

Cripps can kick a goal, when he was able to rest forward at times he seemed able to grab up forward.

Ed Curnow has always been a centerman and rarely afforded forward time but when he has a shot he makes the most of it and it's looked natural. Who knows what will happen if he's left down there.

Fasolo, yeah he's done it before, he's been a 20+ goal a year forward. For me though he's the potential weak link if he doesn't apply pressure. But that may just be a fitness thing, who knows.

Gibbons from what I imagine is probably the VFL equivalent of Murphy, because he's so good he probably only played midfield in the VFL. Could he have a similar pathway to Kane Lambert?

The rest are too young to judge.

I like to think of Geelong at their best during their three premierships. Chapman and Johnson were their genuine gun small forwards. At times they were both kind of potential midfield/forward players who ended up being mainly forwards who occasionally ventured up the ground. The Cats were able to kick their goals from a really wide spread though. Their last flag the goals came from more permanent forwards but the other two there were a lot of midfielders kicking goals. Ablett, Ling, Bartel all kicked plenty. Though from memory I think Johnson and Chapman spent a little more time in the midfield later on perhaps?

I just think we'll do this our own way. It's a little unusual to have three really athletic and mobile tall forwards and the other forwards might be a little unusual too but hey if they get the job done then what more can we ask.

Either way if we get to the end of the season and Curnow and McKay have kicked around 40 and McGovern not far off and two or three others, Murphy, Fisher and Fasolo 20 odd we'll be going pretty well. Especially if the mids get a handful too.