Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

[TerryWallet]

add Docherty and Motlop based on actual goals scored - Motlop kicked one fromn the boundary a while back and last week off one step under pressure from about 47 merters out - that was a wow goal to me anyway.

Little bugger has got powerful legs. Gonna be a gun player. Already good. Kicks goals.

 

[gbatman]

I still think we really need to be careful with our balance/mix of mids that we currently have/keep and how that look’s moving forward.
Imo I’d nearly rather keep Dow and let go of Kennedy. Gives us a bit of point of difference through the middle. Feels like the better mix to me.

It's true you need more quick midfielders than slow pure inside ones. Dow's value has been on display for us all to see. If we didn't have him with Cerra and Walsh going down we would not have finals sown up, IMO we would probably be on the verge of missing finals again. That has been how important having Dow has been to us.

Kennedy, Hewett and Cripps IMO don't fit into the same team. Not unless we can stick Kennedy forward for fair parts of the game which means he is playing the Jack Martin role.

We actually need them both.

When Hewett was injured it was Kennedy who stood up and vice versa. If a Cripps, Hewett or Kennedy get injured it's ok because we have that depth and we need those bog heavy hitters in the team.

If Walsh and/or Cerra get injured, it's ok because we have Dow and to an extent Docherty.

I also think that best 22 Dow is the sub and perhaps in a few years time he may be someone who goes past one of Kennedy, Walsh or Docherty if age catches up to him in the middle there.

I think it's important, if we want sustained success and not just be a flash in the pan that we keep this group together, regardless of whether they all fit into the same team or not.

 

[Stamos]

Little bugger has got powerful legs. Gonna be a gun player. Already good. Kicks goals.

And sets them up.
Against the Suns, down by a point at 3/4 time, he kicks 1 and gets 2 assists in the last quarter.
Match winning talent.

 

[JustaBattler]

Little bugger has got powerful legs. Gonna be a gun player. Already good. Kicks goals.

Being dropped cured him of some emerging laziness- and playing in a better forward mix has helped him play much better has a fair bit of upside from here and maybe not just as a small forward - will definately be strong enough for mid rotations in a couple of years.

 

[JustaBattler]

And sets them up.
Against the Suns, down by a point at 3/4 time, he kicks 1 and gets 2 assists in the last quarter.
Match winning talent.

yep - the unsung heroes of that turnaround were Martin and Motlop - both had some big important moments.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

His son is about 4 months old...

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I've never found the 'brackets' joke that funny, but obviously the family do.

 

[TerryWallet]

And sets them up.
Against the Suns, down by a point at 3/4 time, he kicks 1 and gets 2 assists in the last quarter.
Match winning talent.

Yep. He is class. One of the ones that got us going last weekend. His form has been great since he returned. Every game except Melbourne, which was a quagmire in our forward line most of the game which made it impossible for him. Great defence by Melbourne that game.

 

[Blue By Blood]

It's true you need more quick midfielders than slow pure inside ones. Dow's value has been on display for us all to see. If we didn't have him with Cerra and Walsh going down we would not have finals sown up, IMO we would probably be on the verge of missing finals again. That has been how important having Dow has been to us.

Kennedy, Hewett and Cripps IMO don't fit into the same team. Not unless we can stick Kennedy forward for fair parts of the game which means he is playing the Jack Martin role.

We actually need them both.

When Hewett was injured it was Kennedy who stood up and vice versa. If a Cripps, Hewett or Kennedy get injured it's ok because we have that depth and we need those bog heavy hitters in the team.

If Walsh and/or Cerra get injured, it's ok because we have Dow and to an extent Docherty.

I also think that best 22 Dow is the sub and perhaps in a few years time he may be someone who goes past one of Kennedy, Walsh or Docherty if age catches up to him in the middle there.

I think it's important, if we want sustained success and not just be a flash in the pan that we keep this group together, regardless of whether they all fit into the same team or not.

I think you’re pretty much spot on. One of the big list management challenges is keeping depth players or the unfortunate guys who should be best 22 but get keep getting pushed out. You can understand them moving on for more opportunity but they’re so crucial. Look at Fremantle as an example. They’ve gone backwards this year partly because they lost so many depth players. If we lose Dow, Fisher etc. that really could impact us next year.

Also agree that Dow gives us a better mix alongside Cripps and Hewett. My opinion is that at any given time the mix should be Cripps, one of Hewett or Kennedy, and one of Walsh, Cerra, or Dow. Cripps could spend some time forward allowing Kennedy to be selected also potentially. We have them all available at once finally which is a rare change but won’t always be the case as we know. Interested to see how they manage it.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Sure. He has improved. Quite a bit.

The problem is he's probably not better in a secondary position than the incumbent would be in their primary position. The only way he gets a gig in that case is through injury.

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I’d argue that he is comfortably a better player than Fog & his output & contribution his significantly higher than Cunners. Resting forward is a second position.
Doc/Fog/Cunners aren’t even close to producing when they roll thru the midfield - every stat & the eye test shows that. Doc should have Fish/Boyd roll - he is literally an AA half back.
When u stop the inaccurate rhetoric that Doc/Fog/Cunners/Fish can roll thru the midfield, a spot is open. It comes down to how u see the side, I rate Dows clearance abilty & contribution as high enough to shuffle the magnets. Would likely also involve Walsh taking Hollands wing but obviously having high mid rotation too.
Incumbents are all covered & actually upgraded- Doc is better than Boyd\Fish, Walsh is miles ahead of Hollands & removes a question on whether he’s upto the physicality of finals footy & Dow covers Fog comfortably. With higher mid rotations it also allows more flexibility & Crippa can also rest forward on occasion & gives a 3rd tall option.
That’s all a positive impact across the ground.

 

[gbatman]

I think you’re pretty much spot on. One of the big list management challenges is keeping depth players or the unfortunate guys who should be best 22 but get keep getting pushed out. You can understand them moving on for more opportunity but they’re so crucial. Look at Fremantle as an example. They’ve gone backwards this year partly because they lost so many depth players. If we lose Dow, Fisher etc. that really could impact us next year.

Also agree that Dow gives us a better mix alongside Cripps and Hewett. My opinion is that at any given time the mix should be Cripps, one of Hewett or Kennedy, and one of Walsh, Cerra, or Dow. Cripps could spend some time forward allowing Kennedy to be selected also potentially. We have them all available at once finally which is a rare change but won’t always be the case as we know. Interested to see how they manage it.

Any team that is right up there, especially teams that win the premiership always start losing players.

The thing about us is we have come from bottom and a lot of our depth players are ones who have just developed and just got there or they are players who have had a long injury history so teams probably aren't going hard at them yet.

You get another 12 months of footy at the same level of quality or better to what Dow, Marchbank, Martin, McGovern etc etc have delivered then teams start coming for them in a fairly big way and you probably start losing them. I think because the sample size of good injury free footy is small from a lot of the players we are looking to sign, that puts us at an advantage.

Basically the iron is hot now and it's time to strike in regards to signing players up. In 12 months time when we are a really good side and our out of contract players are coming out of contract after some good injury free footy things may be a whole lot harder in regards to getting it done.

If I was Carlton I would also be focused on extending some of next years out of contract players. Guys like Cincotta, Durdin, Cottrell, Martin, Boyd and Owies. Before they make a bigger name for themselves. Cincotta is straight out of the VFL, Durdin is a young player on the fringe with injury issues, Martin is injury prone, Boyd is a really good backman who if not getting a game will be chased, Cottrell is making a name for himself and Owies we all know he's good but will others be looking at him a bit more seriously in another 12 months?

I think we get this year's OOC players signed we want to keep and move onto extending the ones we know can play straight after.

I think keeping as many as we can of this group until the end of 2025. That's when some of the big names come out of contract and come into free agency and that's when things might get a bit tricky for us. I'd be hoping we would have banked a flag or two by then with this group and we would be looking at perhaps refreshing the list a little bit and probably managing things a bit salary wise.

Player retention has been terrible at Freo, they have missed their boat. You're right it's a big piece of the puzzle, building a list to do it is tricky enough but keeping them all together is just as hard.

Two of Cripps, Kennedy and Hewett and three of Walsh, Cerra, Dow and Docherty is the key IMO. Cripps, Walsh, Cerra are our big 3. So it becomes one of Kennedy or Hewett and one of Docherty or Dow as the extra grunt and extra speed player in there. Also very much like Dow as sub if he's not in the side.

One thing to consider is Docherty moving out of the onball group to a wing or back to half back at some stage. The other is the development of Dow. He's going to get better. He could develop enough as a forward to take on the forward mid role. He's right at the beginning of his career, he's been a slow burn. I think if we can fit Dow in, having Walsh, Cerra and Dow going through the middle all day makes it impossible for the opposition sides to stop us. Just too many quality runners and too much break away speed. Makes us the most dangerous clearance side in the competition by some way, especially if Docherty is also having spells in there as well.

Speed around the ball is king in the modern age of footy. Break away speed and closing speed. Come finals with the band back together I think we will see that.

Think Dow has a big role to play either as sub or inside the starting 22.

 

[ferrisb]

Yes, the typo was funny.

I have to say though, I reckon it might be time to put the Gov=fat or brackets thing to bed. He's done the hard yards to come back from that. Do we need to keep bringing it back up? At what point can we give the bloke some respect?

He has well and truly earnt that.

I just can't resist a pun.

I need help.

 

[AB_Blue]

Would love to know if the bench is going from 4 plus 1 to 6 and no sub.
6 on the bench covers for concussion, injuries and keeps players fresh

Personally I have never understood the need for a sub when you have a bench with 4 “subs” on it


All of a sudden both Dow and JSOS are best 24


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[WyntersGame_]

Just a thought about Dow and List Management. If I was the club I would be looking to the future.

Dow is 23 years old and still developing as a player but showing some great signs of improvement.

We know he is a clearance king and has a great side step with speed away from stoppage that is deceptive to those watching

We have a 28 year old captain who has been battered his whole career so I think another 3 years probably puts him toward the end of his career (not hoping just assuming).

3 years puts Paddy at 26 and entering his prime years as a player. I'd be saying to him take 2/3 years on a leaner contract, continue working on the things you know can improve and when the time comes you step into Cripps role.

If he wants a guaranteed starting position and more money then best of luck to him but I think he could become a key player in the future

To me he is a ready made replacement and still very young. His draft year he barely made the age cut off. I think that needs to be remembered

I also think people get to caught up on players playing multiple positions. I rather a great even elite player in one position than someone who plays average across many because he "has" to be flexible.

 

[ferrisb]

Just a thought about Dow and List Management. If I was the club I would be looking to the future.

Dow is 23 years old and still developing as a player but showing some great signs of improvement.

We know he is a clearance king and has a great side step with speed away from stoppage that is deceptive to those watching

We have a 28 year old captain who has been battered his whole career so I think another 3 years probably puts him toward the end of his career (not hoping just assuming).

3 years puts Paddy at 26 and entering his prime years as a player. I'd be saying to him take 2/3 years on a leaner contract, continue working on the things you know can improve and when the time comes you step into Cripps role.

If he wants a guaranteed starting position and more money then best of luck to him but I think he could become a key player in the future

To me he is a ready made replacement and still very young. His draft year he barely made the age cut off. I think that needs to be remembered

I also think people get to caught up on players playing multiple positions. I rather a great even elite player in one position than someone who plays average across many because he "has" to be flexible.

Great post.

Although a couple of thoughts.

1) How keen would a player be to wait until they are 26 to really lock down a position?

2) I agree a gun in one position is better than being average across roles. But the issue with Dow is his best position is one where we are stacked with elite and mature talent that isn't going anywhere any time soon. He's not playing ahead of Cripps, Walsh, Cerra. Probably not Hewett and maybe not Kennedy.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

I was at the game on the weekend and Dow did some really good things, especially in the second quarter when we needed it. His marking is becoming a real strength and he seems to be doing those panicked kicks and handballs less as he gets more comfortable at the level. He is really pushing for vest 22 IMO now but it’s a squeeze for sure.

His most assured game so far - first move out of stoppage is as good as Sammy W. It’s what happens next that holds him back a little - needs to be on the inside feeding out - runners flanking.

 

[WyntersGame_]

Great post.

Although a couple of thoughts.

1) How keen would a player be to wait until they are 26 to really lock down a position?

2) I agree a gun in one position is better than being average across roles. But the issue with Dow is his best position is one where we are stacked with elite and mature talent that isn't going anywhere any time soon. He's not playing ahead of Cripps, Walsh, Cerra. Probably not Hewett and maybe not Kennedy.

There are people better equipped than me to come up with a solution but maybe these responses could be food for thought

1. I guess you sell it to him as this club is the one you say you want to be apart of. We have something special at the moment and we want to be the next dynasty. We want you to be apart of it, we really rate you as a player and if you continue to show the progress you have this year as a player you could just become undroppable for this club next year. Prove that position is yours, show us that we undervalued you and your next contract will reflect that and more.

I think if he continues to improve he doesn't have to be only a back up to cripps. We have seen they work well together so maybe that is the goal for now and when cripps elects to hang up his boots the role is Paddy's.

2. I agree we have alot of elite players there but not all have to at the stoppage at the same time and can rotate through. Have two of those players being the primary midfielder and the others rotate through.

Walsh for his insane talent I don't want him in and under unless it is his direct opponent or he is apart of a defence act. His skills are much better suited to being first receiver and the person to deliver into the forward line as a result of a chain of movement with him having the time to put that perfect pass in because he is not rushed

Hewitt needs to be in there, Cerra does as well and can be in the contest but his delivery is elite so I'd prefer him as the link player or passing into the forward 50 to the forwards.

Kennedy can rotate. He is not a permanent half forward but rotating through I think he could be deadly.

And I know not everyone agrees but I find Hewitt, Kennedy and Cripps in the midfield fulltime as very one paced. We need someone to get those ball to our overlapping players. Hewitt tends to go backwards, Kennedy doesn't always have the best first touch and cripps he is our premier midfielder so he should be in there if he is fit

I'm glad you didn't mention Docherty, for me he is a AA half back and should be there

 

[Opium]

Sure. He has improved. Quite a bit.

The problem is he's probably not better in a secondary position than the incumbent would be in their primary position. The only way he gets a gig in that case is through injury.

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Does Libba or Oliver play another position? Dow is perfect to come in off the bench in the second half of quarters with his zip and energy. Great asset to have up your sleeve with rotations.

 

[Coops93]

I'll be surprised if Dow is out this week. He was probably our best mid on the weekend. It would be a huge call to recall 3 mids who have all missed a month or more out and drop one who is in good form. But also there is a chance to use the game as a warmup for those mids if Vossy is determined to play them in the first final. Obviously Walsh and Cerra come str8 in. I think on balance, Kennedy will have to train the house down during the next 2 weeks to get back in. Hopefully he does as the competition is great for Carlton.

Selection for the first final will be the intriguing one. I think Paddy gets another chance to either play himself in or play himself out this week. ATM he's playing himself in, but you get the feeling one slip up will see him out.

Play well young man. You've been a credit to yourself this year.

Agree with this. I think all things equal Kennedy is in over Dow, but as it is now with Dow being in the team, playing well and Kennedy being out injured I think for now it's Dows spot to lose - if there was a head to head between he and Kennedy for a spot.

 

[ferrisb]

Does Libba or Oliver play another position? Dow is perfect to come in off the bench in the second half of quarters with his zip and energy. Great asset to have up your sleeve with rotations.

Dow would struggle to get a game at Melb, with Oliver, Petracca, Viney there.

He'd attend centre bounces ahead of Sparrow, Jordan, Harmes. Although they are more part-time mids and offer more outside the contest.

 

[jj1978]

Agree with this. I think all things equal Kennedy is in over Dow, but as it is now with Dow being in the team, playing well and Kennedy being out injured I think for now it's Dows spot to lose - if there was a head to head between he and Kennedy for a spot.

If we don't play Kennedy in any form this week I doubt we see him in finals unless injuries are incurred. Boyd/JSOS/Kennedy sadly got injured/suspended at the wrong time for themselves and their replacements have grabbed the opportunity with 2 hands.

 

[Coops93]

Does Libba or Oliver play another position? Dow is perfect to come in off the bench in the second half of quarters with his zip and energy. Great asset to have up your sleeve with rotations.

Libba has often been played outside from his natural position. Only in patches has the genius that is Luke Beveridge put him inside.

Oliver is arguably the best in the comp at what he does, he doesn't need another position.

Dow isn't even the best in the team at what he does, so if he's going to fit in the team he needs a secondary position to play while he rotates in and out of the midfield - with everyone fit that is. As it is now covering injuries he can spend all his time as a clearance mid and that's been great, but with everyone back he doesn't have the versatility to be a role player rotating on ball and doing a job somewhere else.

 

[Coops93]

If we don't play Kennedy in any form this week I doubt we see him in finals unless injuries are incurred. Boyd/JSOS/Kennedy sadly got injured at the wrong time for themselves and their replacements have grabbed the opportunity with 2 hands.

Which, really, is exactly what you want. Opportunities arising and being absolutely grabbed onto. It's sad for the incumbents who have lost their position through not much more than bad luck, but that's professional sport for you. As much as you're a team, there's only so many jobs up for grabs

 

[jj1978]

Dow would struggle to get a game at Melb, with Oliver, Petracca, Viney there.

He'd attend centre bounces ahead of Sparrow, Jordan, Harmes. Although they are more part-time mids and offer more outside the contest

Dow would be getting offers but I'd suspect you'd be looking at teams requiring again more depth or lowly placed teams.

• North are up and coming and in a year or two when some of their kids fully flourish what then?
• Richmond would he want to play with his brother or potentially take his brothers spot?
• * and Saints? God knows why?
• GC, Melbourne, Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, Port, Adelaide... would be 5th+ depth mid

He'd be a good fit for Geelong who need some youth as well as maybe Hawks and West Coast... but would you be certain of a chance of immediate success there? Not sure he'd fit with Scott's or Mitchell's game plan.

He's actually a really good fit for us in the current window of where we lie.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Neither Kennedy or Hewett will depart

It's like saying we should let Dow go because he's not best 22

 

[ferrisb]

If I had to paint the perfect value recruit, it would be something like this

• Player aged 21-24
• Out of contract
• Is on the fringe of selection at current team
• Other team is not desperate to keep or has salary cap squeeze
• Has played 60-100 games
• Has spent a number of years building fitness and strength
• Has been working on deficiencies that have kept them out of 22
• Output is on the up; they are improving with age
• Can be picked up cheaply
• Is in a position of need

That last dot point is an issue at Carlton, but that aside... Dow is the exact kind of value recruit that we should be looking for. Could be a great bargain pickup for another side.