Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

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DangerousD said:
Pick 4 is worth 2034, what’s realistic in terms of cost to buy that pick?
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Probably an extra 800 points
macky99 said:
Most players at the 2nd tier level have a base & incentives, he will play 20 + games at another club which will equate to $400-$450k.
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It will certainly be incentive based, but which starting 3-4 mids of any club will he be in front of to warrant that deal?

macky99 said:
He is absolutely unlucky to be out of the team based on a very solid month, definitely will get a regular game at a another club next year, has shown a fantastic attitude over the last 2 years with us, can see him at any one of 4-5 clubs next year.
Hope he does well.
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Not unlucky, he is a fringe midfielder and right now he isn't a regular at any other club

I hope he does well too, no matter where he plays
 
The Blue Weirdo said:
It's probably too late, but only receiving something like pick 45 for a player that is developing like Dow, is the major reason to re-contract him.
Someone is going to get an absolute bargain.
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No point re-contracting a player you have little intention of playing...
 

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ferrisb said:
No point re-contracting a player you have little intention of playing...
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I'm not as confident that our preferred mids will all be injury free next year. I can see an opportunity for a good back up mid or sub player, if they'd accept the terms.
We really should have rested the injured George earlier this year before his form found him in the VFL for 2 games.
 
DangerousD said:
Pick 4 is worth 2034, what’s realistic in terms of cost to buy that pick?
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Very much dependent on what others are prepared to offer.

It's not just straight up points, either, as GC will be somewhat restricted in the number of live picks they can take into the draft. If they're only going to have 4 list spots open, for example, then they'll want to maximise their points position using four picks only, rather than stockpiling 7 picks with a higher total points value.

Ie. A club could offer 5 picks in the 20-30 range totaling 3400 points, but it might be more beneficial for GC to accept something like 3 picks in the 12-20 range totaling 3000 points.

It would appear that the clubs best positioned to make a play for Pick 4 would be:
GWS (Picks 6 and 13 @2963pts) (probably big overs, but depends how big a gap GWS perceive between the player at Pick 4 and the player they'd get at Pick 6)
Bulldogs (Picks 10 and 17 @2420pts)
Adelaide (Picks 9 and 20 @2381pts)

Lesser chance for the following, who may need to kick in something else to make their offer more compelling:
Essendon (Picks 8 and 27 @2254pts)
Sydney (Picks 11 and 22 @2174pts)

As a starting point, we have Pick 14 at present which is worth 1161pts. To compete with the three best-position clubs, we'd need to find another pick in the 10-12 range, or perhaps two picks in the late 20s/early 30s.

I reckon our ideal scenario would be to flip our future first for something like Pick 17 from the Bulldogs (Brisbane's pick), then package up 14, 17 and a pick in the mid/late 30s (ie. 39 from NM for Fisher) for Pick 4. Problem there is if WB want Pick 4, they're not giving away a key bargaining chip to another buyer.

The more realistic option might be our future first for an early second (21 from Freo, 22 from Sydney). Packaging that up with 14 and 39 gives them 2485pts. It's from three draft picks though, and if they're able to take three picks into the draft then GWS or WB or Adelaide could kick in a pick in the 40s to out-bid us.


Loooong story short - unless GWS are happy at 6, Adelaide don't want to overspend on interstate players, and/or the Bulldogs are worried about being able to match a bid for Croft, we're not well-placed to make a strong play for Pick 4.
 
Kreuuuzeurns said:
It has been a great 10 weeks with improvement at HFF a massive part of that but surely we cannot rely on Martin and Cuningham to play 25 games each in 2024. We will more than likely shed Honey, Philp and Fisher at the end of the season, Fogarty may also be moved on, so I hope we look to bolster HFF through FA or trade. If it is Gresham that's great as he instantly improves our best 22 but any ready to go option will do me. Williams is one that may be tried there. I would personally keep Fisher unless we get a good deal but understand we need to move money around and North could set him up long term.

Austin has a good history in drafting these types. I am confident he will set us up well long term but I feel we could end up one or two short again next season if injuries strike and we haven't made moves.
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People see a lot more in Gresham than I do. If he's a walk up start in our 22, then we aren't going as well as I'd hoped.
 
HereComesJuddy said:
Think he will be traded. Surplus to our needs and not best 22 anymore.
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For a club favourite, I've definitely gone cold on him.
He has always been inconsistent, but after his reprieve and good form in the defence, I expected him to go the extra level required to be considered in finals, but alas, same old Fish. I don't have hard feelings toward him, but I don't have any sympathy either.
 
Kreuuuzeurns said:
It has been a great 10 weeks with improvement at HFF a massive part of that but surely we cannot rely on Martin and Cuningham to play 25 games each in 2024. We will more than likely shed Honey, Philp and Fisher at the end of the season, Fogarty may also be moved on, so I hope we look to bolster HFF through FA or trade.
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Yes - good points. I'm of the same opinion. We are still a bit volatile there.
Kreuuuzeurns said:
If it is Gresham that's great as he instantly improves our best 22 but any ready to go option will do me. Williams is one that may be tried there.
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Yep. Have said it a few times myself and would love to see it happen.
Kreuuuzeurns said:
I would personally keep Fisher unless we get a good deal but understand we need to move money around and North could set him up long term.
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I won't sulk if we keep him but I'd like to see a trade done tbh.
Kreuuuzeurns said:
Austin has a good history in drafting these types. I am confident he will set us up well long term but I feel we could end up one or two short again next season if injuries strike and we haven't made moves.
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Yes, spot on. I do have full confidence in Austin though, he's barely put a foot wrong.
 
Prem17 said:
Of all the weird named places in all the far-flung places of this bizarre but beautiful country, the one I find to be the worst is actually quite a simple one.
There's a place in the south of Perth called Cockburn.
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Don't forget Innaloo.
 
If Dow gets traded, player discussion on every thread on the Carlton Board...

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gadj1976 said:
People see a lot more in Gresham than I do. If he's a walk up start in our 22, then we aren't going as well as I'd hoped.
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Id counter this by saying, his output this year speaks for itself, averaged 17.5 touches, 0.9 goals and 3.2 tackles.

He would be competing against Cuningham, Fogarty, which he is a long way better based on his output.

The biggest negative was the supposed cost to bring him over, whilst his output is better than those mentioned, Fog and Cunners would be on minimum contracts.
 
fmurphy30 said:
Rumour as fact (I assume this is not public yet): Cripps is already in Brisbane. A delegation of Carlton people went up last night. Cripps is one of them. Spotted this morning in Queensland.
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and not staying in the same hotel as doc..........no, hang on.......
 
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