Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[lopezz]

F1 and/or F2 for picks this year?
Names like Ethan Phillips (and there will be heaps of others) that we can pick up for nothing

It's very easy

I would usually agree with you on that Soap but i can't see any of the teams who have picks in a realistic trade range wanting to move out of this draft class.

Happy to give Phillips a go but he doesn't have any runs on the board yet.

 

[Banga19]

It shouldn't be one or the other though?

I meant broadly speaking, the two directions we could take in this trade period.

The reality is we could afford Houston, but it would significantly compromise our strategy of hitting the draft to ease SC and set us up with a more balanced list for the future as Tas enters etc

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Jesus Christ…..Charlie doesn’t qualify as a game turner any more????

How quickly we forget.

Yep it's full blown everyone is an emotionally charged list manager who knows best season. Don't ya love it

 

[Blue__Balls]

I'm an Owies fan but.

A bit out of left field as you would not perceive them as similar players but is the belief that Moir will play the role that Owies played this year?

I think the club's view would be that JSOS and Kemp are Best 22 marking forward options, and versatile enough that you can maybe even fit both in the team together. Then Moir has shown signs, and while he may not be able to front up 4 quarters every week we should be looking to use him when possible (ie. when forced changes open up a spot for a marking forward). Owies' rates ahead of Moir at the moment if you want a bloke to play 20+ games, but if you only need 10 games out of one of them, then investing time into the higher ceiling kid is the smart move. I don't think Owies is ever going to be a 50 goal forward, while I think if Moir kicks on he could have those sorts of seasons.

And Owies, while physically a small forward, plays like an undersized third tall. He can find space when the oppo defenders play off him, he can sneak out the back for an easy mark on the rebound, but he's not the type to rove the fall at a contest or beat an oppo small in a footrace to goal.

Leaves him as a solid fourth in line for the medium forward gig, and maybe anywhere from third to sixth in line for a crumbing small role to which he's not overly well suited (Williams Motlop, Durdin, Fogarty...a draftee?).

Output over the last two years is the argument for keeping Owies. But expected output over the next 2+ years is what the decision is ultimately made on.

 

[Opium]

I think now unlikely as the club missed it's target that would have squeezed him out

Was it from Port?

 

[Earls Smother]

Correct
Happy for someone to go through every premiership team in the last 10-20-30 years and tell me which player who came to the club in that premiership year was the difference between that club winning the flag and not winning the flag

Richmond getting Nankervis, Prestia and Caddy was a pivotal offseason. Obviously more than 1 player.

You could certainly argue that they wouldn't have won '17 without getting Nank.

 

[Sam The Doc]

To put it bluntly, I would’ve liked Sharp

The question is, does Petracca like Sharp?

 

[Aphrodite]

Did you hear Jordan Lewis tonight on fox? Saying that Port trading Ollie Lord to the Pies will unlock the Houston trade, it’s makes no sense!!

 

[LanceRomance]

Yes, stats don’t always show the full picture, but I’d absolutely argue that half back is nowhere near a position of need, no matter how elite.

I’d also argue that Newman is not that far off of Houston in terms of kicking ability, and he’s a better defender.

We are ok.

If we get Houston at our price, perfect, if not, we move forward.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Newman will be 32 at the start of the next season too.

 

[Pixelshooter]

Just out of curiosity, I had a look at the 2024 stats for Newman and Houston, thinking Houston would be a fair way ahead. Alas he's not. Total metres gained is very similar and it's also very close in disposal efficiency, which I was pretty surprised about.

 

[bigm386]

With next year being perceived as a weak draft as it stands and this year a strong draft.

Plus Cody Walker on the horizon and Tassie handouts.

Taking a few picks this year and nailing them can extend our window significantly.

If you're going to invest heavily in the draft this is the year to do it for us.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I would usually agree with you on that Soap but i can't see any of the teams who have picks in a realistic trade range wanting to move out of this draft class.

Happy to give Phillips a go but he doesn't have any runs on the board yet.

It's an unusual year. Whilst this is a strong draft class (which would normally make it tough to move up) there are plenty of clubs who either have loads of first round picks or academy bid situations.

Lions (20), Goldcoast (13), Essendon (9) all have picks that they need to move out due to bids

Richmond (assuming the freo trade goes through) will have 1,6,10,14,18 plus 3-4 2nd rounders that they don't even have list spots for.

GWS have 15,16,21.

As far as competition it's not as stiff as it seems. Any team that is a realistic chance of finishing bottom 6 can't be trading F1 for a teens pick this year. Other clubs have their currency tied up in trades.

I personally would only want our F1 involved if the pick is <15 .

We also have the advantage of knowing 33 likely gets swallowed by a campo bid so can throw it in to get a trade over the line without losing much.

 

[Earls Smother]

Correct
Happy for someone to go through every premiership team in the last 10-20-30 years and tell me which player who came to the club in that premiership year was the difference between that club winning the flag and not winning the flag

Brian Lake another one.

Particularly with all the Hawk's prelims in their premiership years decided by a kick.

 

[T2B_]

Just out of curiosity, I had a look at the 2024 stats for Newman and Houston, thinking Houston would be a fair way ahead. Alas he's not. Total metres gained is very similar and it's also very close in disposal efficiency, which I was pretty surprised about.

Newman is pretty underrated IMO, the only thing against him is age now.

 

[Soapy V]

I would usually agree with you on that Soap but i can't see any of the teams who have picks in a realistic trade range wanting to move out of this draft class.

I don't know all the ins and outs but there are a couple of clubs that are happy to trade out this year for next years picks


PS marchmurphy3 with post #7,989 explains it very well

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I’d argue 3 years for Newy (Half backs can last longer than most other positions)

Also, you’re not taking into consideration how good and handy the drafted players will be, and we will (hopefully) get 10+ years out of them.

We will absolutely be fine with or without Houston, don’t let the wanting of the shiny new toy fool you.

never have, never will.

DH is not the messiah, but anyone suggesting he wouldn't add a lot to our onfield output needs to reflect a bit more about our current skill shortcomings...

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

The sheer arrogance of Collingwood supporters calling into SEN abusing Sam Edmund for his report earlier this week, acting like Houston is already a pie

Vile, disgusting breed they are pies supporters … hope somehow Houston becomes a blue

 

[SolGoodman]

never have, never will.

DH is not the messiah, but anyone suggesting he wouldn't add a lot to our onfield output needs to reflect a bit more about our current skill shortcomings...

No one is saying he wouldn’t, we are saying he isn’t worth what port value him at is all.

The smarter play is getting 2 top 15 picks, saving a ton of money and using that one re signing our superstars.

 

[Sam The Doc]

The sheer arrogance of Collingwood supporters calling into SEN abusing Sam Edmund for his report earlier this week, acting like Houston is already a pie

Vile, disgusting breed they are pies supporters … hope somehow Houston becomes a blue

I'm trying to remember who it was but someone was interviewing Jack Crisp yesterday about how great it is to have Houston in the defence... Crisp kind of laughed and said there is still a lot of work to do...

 

[ferrisb]

Collingwood getting Houston is full blown mortgaging any future with Tasmania coming in.

That would be a real shame, wouldn't it?

 

[Max Pepsi]

The whole Owies thing doesn't sit well with me. I understand that he is the guy out of contract & there are too many small forwards etc etc. I actually like him as a player, limited as he is, but my issue is with the logic behind it.

Carlton has been the club of hope & potential for way too long. Too many players with injury history recruited in the hope that they'll come good. Too many players rushed back from injury in the hope that they'll play well. Too many contracts issued on potential.

When is the club going to be more courageous & base decisions on hard facts like actual goals kicked in AFL games? If Motlop or Durdin had two 30 goal seasons back to back, they'd get a tick. Owies does it & gets the punt because he apparently doesn't have as much potential or upside.

It just feels like more playing favorites, like we saw with selection this year.

 

[Juice030103]

See I thought they were mortgaging their future too until I remembered they are getting mcguanes kid next year whose a top 5 pick

So they aren’t losing anything

 

[ctwenty1]

The question is, does Petracca like Sharp?

Sharp is a good brand, isn't it?

 

[Stamos]

We also have the advantage of knowing 33 likely gets swallowed by a campo bid so can throw it in to get a trade over the line without losing much.

Will be interesting how we go with #34.
If we can get another 1st in, are we committed to taking both Campos in the ND, and therefore happy to move it?
Or, are we hopeful no bid comes for Lucas, and maybe Ben bid later, so we can take it as a 3rd higher pick?

 

[Proud 2 be Blue]

It's an unusual year. Whilst this is a strong draft class (which would normally make it tough to move up) there are plenty of clubs who either have loads of first round picks or academy bid situations.

Lions (20), Goldcoast (13), Essendon (9) all have picks that they need to move out due to bids

Richmond (assuming the freo trade goes through) will have 1,6,10,14,18 plus 3-4 2nd rounders that they don't even have list spots for.

GWS have 15,16,21.

As far as competition it's not as stiff as it seems. Any team that is a realistic chance of finishing bottom 6 can't be trading F1 for a teens pick this year. Other clubs have their currency tied up in trades.

I personally would only want our F1 involved if the pick is
We also have the advantage of knowing 33 likely gets swallowed by a campo bid so can throw it in to get a trade over the line without losing much.

The trading into this draft is looking more like being on draft night outside for the Richmond and GWS picks. They will be able to auction on the night to who they believe is the highest bidder.

Even the Brisbane and Essendon picks could be traded after the trade period if the are not involved in a trade. I think pick swaps can occur up until a week before the draft and then on draft night.

We’ve still got another month of this after next Wednesday. It’s going to be a slow burn this year.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com