Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[4flagsin5yrs]

What is the beef with Martin's professionalism? Always put in when available.

A fair slice of irony to question his professionalism when he had to source a treatment plan for his calf issues independently of the club.

If Martin and Williams had delivered on their potential/talent at CFC, we'd have 18 premierships now...

 

[Sam The Doc]

If Martin and Williams had delivered on their potential/talent at CFC, we'd have 18 premierships now...

Which one of them is the Key defender helping Weitering?

 

[Michael Jezz]

Doubt that Houston would cost us 2 × 1sts

I'd say pick 11, or most likely trading our F1 for a late 1st this year from Tigers after trading with the Dockers

Beware the pick downgrade...Fools Paradise thinking a pick around 25 + Houston is equal to Travaglia, Lindsay or Trainor.
I see Houston as 2 seasons as an A Grader and 2 seasons as a B Grader = 80 games
Pick 25 is at the very best Berry falls our way maybe worse.
Point is after 2 years it is quite possible the side is full of mediocrity

This is a deep draft. I am pretty Confident Travaglia projects as a 150 to 200 game Half Back Flanker
Trainor should be avallable and he is a key piece of the puzzle
Lindsay good as well.
Far more likely to get a 10 year B to A Grader

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Great post.

The only bidding war we should enter into for Owies is for other clubs bidding up his trade value.

Third rounder would be a great outcome, second rounder would be magnificent.

Yep, we sure don't want to get into some bidding war for Owies.

With all due respect, if we end up overpaying to retain him, between him and Williams we'd potentially have one of the highest paid and least productive smaller forward duo in the AFL.

Either way, save the $$ to re-sign Weiters and TDK - which should be our highest priority.

 

[Arr0w]

Beware the pick downgrade...Fools Paradise thinking a pick around 25 + Houston is equal to Travaglia, Lindsay or Trainor.
I see Houston as 2 seasons as an A Grader and 2 seasons as a B Grader = 80 games
Pick 25 is at the very best Berry falls our way maybe worse.
Point is after 2 years it is quite possible the side is full of mediocrity

This is a deep draft. I am pretty Confident Travaglia projects as a 150 to 200 game Half Back Flanker
Trainor should be avallable and he is a key piece of the puzzle
Lindsay good as well.
Far more likely to get a 10 year B to A Grader

Not sure where you are getting a 2nd rounder, from what I posted

 

[GoBlues!]

If Martin and Williams had delivered on their potential/talent at CFC, we'd have 18 premierships now...

Which one of them is the Key defender helping Weitering?

McGovern and Young should have been but haven’t delivered consistently.

 

[Sam The Doc]

McGovern and Young.

Watching a contest doesn't help Weitering!

 

[agro]

Yep, we sure don't want to get into some bidding war for Owies.

With all due respect, if we end up overpaying to retain him, between him and Williams we'd potentially have one of the highest paid and least productive smaller forward duo in the AFL.

Either way, save the $$ to re-sign Weiters and TDK - which should be our highest priority.

I’m with you I don’t want to get into a bidding war to retain him.

I want other clubs to get into a bidding war to drive up his trade price.

 

[GoBlues!]

Watching a contest doesn't help Weitering!

Martin, McGovern, Williams……a lot of salary for little return.

 

[Sin City]

Watching a contest doesn't help Weitering!

Harris Andrews is playing his second grand final in a row though. Tall defenders are very dependant on how much the midfield can limit the supply.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Really

You just cherry picked Cerra’s best season, do it by career and Cerra is no where near Walsh…

I used Cerra's last full season....

Cherry picking that is not. Entirely legitimate comparison.

Walsh had a good 2023 too.

 

[Stickitupthem]

Watching the swans and lions in disappointment
I must say what a waste of the last two years with our club we should have been the great Victorian hope especially this year
Glad to see the club delist the cloggers but they haven’t cut deep enough
Hope to see curly draft speed KPDs and good ball users and if it’s not to much to ask for a good tactician

 

[Coops93]

I used Cerra's last full season....

Cherry picking that is not. Entirely legitimate comparison.

Walsh had a good 203 too.

No wonder Walshys back is giving out, having been playing for nearly 2000 years will do that to a bloke.

 

[Crippa#9]

Zac Williams and Jack Martin were atrocious recruiting decisions, both injury prone and lacking professionalism to perform to our expectations.
Their salaries combined weighed us down, at least one is off the books completely. Poor recruiting decision which hopefully will not be repeated.

Easy to say in hindsight…

 

[JJBagger]

Easy to say in hindsight…

Everyone’s a general after the war

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Thanks for your reply…

If our list is unbalanced because of our top end talent, would the list and our chances be better, if we moved one or two of them on? Cerra & Williams..

I’d prefer to move on a combination of Motlop, Kennedy, Young, Cerra or Owies and not go after Houston. If it allowed us to get the 4-5 (B graders) in areas of need..

Then keep our first and F1 for the draft…

100% agree with you re Voss and Co, they have shown a reluctance to modernise the game plan and let the boys have some freedom to be creative..

Feel the coaching group are going to live or die by their sword and will double down with their stringent system…

I definitely make the argument that Cerra is one of the B graders you're seeking in a position of need.

 

[Blue Reaper]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

Terrifically well-reasoned post, 43.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Beware the pick downgrade...Fools Paradise thinking a pick around 25 + Houston is equal to Travaglia, Lindsay or Trainor.
I see Houston as 2 seasons as an A Grader and 2 seasons as a B Grader = 80 games
Pick 25 is at the very best Berry falls our way maybe worse.
Point is after 2 years it is quite possible the side is full of mediocrity

This is a deep draft. I am pretty Confident Travaglia projects as a 150 to 200 game Half Back Flanker
Trainor should be avallable and he is a key piece of the puzzle
Lindsay good as well.
Far more likely to get a 10 year B to A Grader

oh goodie. Another half back flanker that we will spend years and thousands of posts wanting to give him a run in midfield. Like all our current half back flankers.

 

[Blue Reaper]

Doubt that Houston would cost us 2 × 1sts

I'd say pick 11, or most likely trading our F1 for a late 1st this year from Tigers after trading with the Dockers

Agree on cost, and if the asking price is 2 x 1sts we walk away.

Houston would definitely improve us but not at the expense of 11. Prefer your future 1st option (s). And only if we can bring in some extra rnd 2 picks through our broader trading strategy. Feel we need to lean in hard on this draft.

 

[Arr0w]

Agree on cost, and if the asking price is 2 x 1sts we walk away.

Houston would definitely improve us but not at the expense of 11. Prefer your future 1st option (s). And only if we can bring in some extra rnd 2 picks through our broader trading strategy. Feel we need to lean in hard on this draft.

Yeap, if it's anymore than a latish 1st, walk away

I'm not rusted on to spending all our capital at the draft, we have the top end talent, some of that currency needs to be used on ready made best 23

 

[Blue Reaper]

Yeap, if it's anymore than a latish 1st, walk away

I'm not rusted on to spending all our capital at the draft, we have the top end talent, some of that currency needs to be used on ready made best 23

Fair. Low cost (see Acres) needs-based best 23 should always be carefully considered.

 

[bmaurizio]

Easy to say in hindsight…

Agree but up to a point, there is a network in place supping information and background details to our
List experts.
One would expect a quantum of due diligence, research before targeting a particular player.
Club has been around for while, we've been waiting about 30 years between drinks.
We swant to lift the silverware again.
Surely basic mechanics aren't to difficult to implement?

 

[TheBlueCampaigner]

Walk away now and address our actual needs. A KPD, a silky midfielder and a goal kicking small forward.

 

[Blue Reaper]

Walk away now and address our actual needs. A KPD, a silky midfielder and a goal kicking small forward.

I get that, but quality players always fit a need. Just depends how they fit with the broader multi-year list strategy.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Not sure where you are getting a 2nd rounder, from what I posted

If Carlton were to trade a future first for say 19 It will end of at pick 25 plus sacrificing pick 11. In 2 years Houston and 2nd coming back will be mediocre players compared to the probability of
2024Pick 11 - Travaglia, Trainor, Lindsay
Pick 19 next year.
I see Houston worth not more than a future first, punting we finish higher next year. Even then I back the draft