Yep, I reckon the Cows have about as much idea as any of us who we're looking to pick.
They obviously have a target and are looking to trade up with the assurance we don't take him. A bit like Dodoro last year.
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Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVII
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They obviously have a target and are looking to trade up with the assurance we don't take him. A bit like Dodoro last year.
bradfisher14
Not actually Brad Fisher
I still think there’s a decent chance the Tigers trade for 2. What makes you so sure they won’t?
Because everything I’ve seen says they won’t.
And if they were willing to make a trade, then how would Adelaide even be a consideration?
What have you seen that says they will?
Because they don’t want Jagga, they want the local boy
And going on what SOAP is saying they are pretty sure we want Draper
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As much as his musings throw this place into a frenzy, has he ever got anything right?
We could start a Cvlt
It’s possibleBecause they don’t want Jagga, they want the local boy
And going on what SOAP is saying they are pretty sure we want Draper
Reckon the Tiggs would prefer the Cows trading up for pick 2....would mean that Norf most likely takes Tauru at 4.
They have pick 1 (Lalor) - and in turn means that they'll get one of FOS/Jagga/Draper/Langford/Smillie at pick 6 without having to trade anything away. Rumours are they're keen on Smillie at that pick, but they'd no doubt be all over Langford like a fat kid on a cupcake if he's still available at that pick.....or even Jagga, which is also a distinct possibilty.
If we had picks 1 and 6 in this draft, I'd be sitting quite smugly....which is exactly what I can see the Tiggs doing.
JustOneTime
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I like it. Not sure whether it is right or wrong but i like it none the less. Ducks and drakes being played out by both sides.
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I think we wind up with FOS.
My preference is Draper over him though.
Draper will have the bigger impact over the next 3-4 years (he's much more 'ready to go') even if FOS lives up to his early hype and turns into the player a lot of people say he'll be (and a lot of people who know a lot more than me have him at 1 or 2 in mocks).
I'd take Lalor over both, but the Tiges snaffle him up at #1.
My preference is Draper over him though.
Draper will have the bigger impact over the next 3-4 years (he's much more 'ready to go') even if FOS lives up to his early hype and turns into the player a lot of people say he'll be (and a lot of people who know a lot more than me have him at 1 or 2 in mocks).
I'd take Lalor over both, but the Tiges snaffle him up at #1.
No, he's hopeless lolAs much as his musings throw this place into a frenzy, has he ever got anything right?
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Optimistic. I had a scan back over the drafts going all the way back to 2010 - I reckon there are maybe 3 seasons where the top 5 didn't produce a bust, and one of those years definitely had a few underwhelming selections.
Statistically speaking, odds are good that one of the top 5 selections this year will go on to have a short and/or unspectacular career.
Of course, the flipside is that if you avoid the bust....you probably got yourself an absolute gun.
JustaBattler
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I have asked a couple of people who we are targeting and many aren't sure
Seems to be we really like FOS if available but also rate Draper, Langford, Smith
My gut feel is we are still discussing as no one is 100% on what Tigers or North are doing. I reckon discussions are still on going and won't be decided until Wednesday. It's that close
Have to remember that we have so much more going on than Pick 3. I have no doubt Austin wants another pick before taking Ben Campo and it seems Lucas will get a senior spot as well.
Then we have other spots to fill. Pick 3 will be a gun regardless. I am more intersted in what we do after that and how we add to our list.
Going to be a fun week
Seems to be we really like FOS if available but also rate Draper, Langford, Smith
My gut feel is we are still discussing as no one is 100% on what Tigers or North are doing. I reckon discussions are still on going and won't be decided until Wednesday. It's that close
Have to remember that we have so much more going on than Pick 3. I have no doubt Austin wants another pick before taking Ben Campo and it seems Lucas will get a senior spot as well.
Then we have other spots to fill. Pick 3 will be a gun regardless. I am more intersted in what we do after that and how we add to our list.
Going to be a fun week
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Expanding on this - thought it might be interesting to consider whether there were any consistent traits among those top 5 picks who didn't pan out.
2010 - Harley Bennell, Jared Polec
2011 - Matt Buntine
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke, Jimmy Toumpas
2013 - no outright busts, Jack Billings definitely hanging on by the skin of his teeth
2014 - Jarrod Pickett
2015 - Josh Schache
2016 - Will Setterfield
2017 - Paddy Dow
2018 - no outright busts, Lukosius, Rankine and King underwhelming vs expectations
2019 - Dylan Stephens
2020 - Will Phillips(?)
2021 - outstanding top 5
2022 - Elijah Tsatas
2023 - too early to call
Not sure there's a consistent common thread, but a few cautionary tales. You probably don't want to gamble on a highly skilled player who lacks physicality or intensity, nor do you want to reach for a niche position of need (GWS more guilty of this with their bounty of high picks).
Based on those characteristics - FOS potentially the bigger risk, he's the one with athleticism and skills but maybe a bit too laconic and easy-going with how he plays. The only one from the above list who fails purely on shit disposal is Tsatas, and I don't think Draper is anywhere near as bad as him, even if he's comparatively slightly less classy than the others this year.
Seems the bigger risk is players that don't have genuine dual position traits
At the pointy end this year, that might be Draper
Having a 2nd position probably doesn't increase your upside but it really limits your downside as the player will be able to fit into the team even if they don't cut it as a mid (where the best players play).
JustaBattler
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1. In AFL, a player will develop into someone who can run well enough for long enough to be able to just get to where they should be or need to be - that is # defining difference between those who make it and those who dont - the first filter.
2. Second filter is if they can do that - can they actually execute in the contested area of play (and all that means)
3. The third filter is can they do both ( ie a proper balance of both) at a level lower/equal to or better ( and how much better) than the average AFL player.
4. then put it all in the context of the list they are playing with, the coach, their privste life, habits, interests, motivations - all. cornucopia of idiosyncratic persanal developmental challenges
#lotteryalwayswasalwayswillbe
#avoidruntsatallcosts
That said thr game is being 'evolved' into a running touch football game - the irony is that the more running you emphasise, skills like field kicking become harder to incorporate into the average player - because they are too buggered by the running and also operate in too much congestion all the time because of the rotations they have allowed and the ever increasing bench numbers to choose from.
All the kids selected in draft are capable athletes at schoolboy level - some are more developed because of the opportunities they have been afforded according to the schools they have gone to and the training regimes they have been under. However when they enter the AFL ystem they are all playing aginst similarly gifted athletes - who have years of developemnt uner their belts.
The Harley Reids/Nick Daicoses out there are 4 standard deviations better than the best at their age - extremely rare.
TheReal99prelim
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Nothing has changed in 100 years
Mindset is the trait that's hard to quantify when looking at the top 5-6 mids
Who wants it more?
Who is willing to want to impact when the chips are down?
Who's the most focused for the entire game; always looking around, creating option, covering unmarked player etc
Who can see that a shepherd at the relevant moment is more important than asking for the ball?
Who knows that they "don't know what they don't know" and put their U18 ego in the bottom draw at home, ready to become vulnerable and a "new" student of the game again?
Who is a disciple of the 1% and team first ethos even i they themselves are having a quiet day?
Who is the most willing to unconditionally be as physically prepared as they can be , at all times
This will separate them over the next 5 years (and yes, injuries may play a part)
Mindset is the trait that's hard to quantify when looking at the top 5-6 mids
Who wants it more?
Who is willing to want to impact when the chips are down?
Who's the most focused for the entire game; always looking around, creating option, covering unmarked player etc
Who can see that a shepherd at the relevant moment is more important than asking for the ball?
Who knows that they "don't know what they don't know" and put their U18 ego in the bottom draw at home, ready to become vulnerable and a "new" student of the game again?
Who is a disciple of the 1% and team first ethos even i they themselves are having a quiet day?
Who is the most willing to unconditionally be as physically prepared as they can be , at all times
This will separate them over the next 5 years (and yes, injuries may play a part)
Exactamondo, and who is mentally prepared to continue to gut run when your body is screaming no. Especially defensively.
A few had injuries this year, who came out the other side of that the best and who handled the setbacks the best.
Draper…..
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To me Key Risks drafting.
Players that get a uncontested ball but can't win contested ball.
Forwards that rely on leading/ getting into space. U18 anti congestion rules makes these players look a lot better than they will be at AFL level.
Half forwards with potential to go through the midfield. If they aren't good enough to play full time mid as a junior they probably aren't going to step up and do it in the AFL.
A Man child that doesn't dominate against smaller opponents in juniors.
Players that show no improvement from their underage year to their senior year in juniors
That said X factor players are always going to be high risk. Would you take Cam Rayner with his X factor or Andrew Brayshaw who will play a 7.5-8 out of 10 game every week.
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