Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[RUNVS]

Just to be clear, you think if you had Gablett instead of Martin, Adelaide turn around a 48-point loss and GWS an 89-point loss. This is what you’re saying?

That is what he/she is saying. It is hard to believe that is what they are saying, but it is.

Possibly one of the dumbest things I have ever read on this forum.

 

[iameviljez]

Dees didn't have a Rance or a Riewoldt or a Cotchin either.

That's true, but they did have Steven May and Jesse Hogan... and Richmond didn't have anything like Max Gawn. (Nobody else did).

 

[Take the VC not the IV]

Just to be clear, you think if you had Gablett instead of Martin, Adelaide turn around a 48-point loss and GWS an 89-point loss. This is what you’re saying?

You see you're reading my comments with a hostile spirit, that's your problem right there.

 

[tiger_tough]

That's true, but they did have Steven May and Jesse Hogan... and Richmond didn't have anything like Max Gawn. (Nobody else did).

May ≠ Rance and they didn't have the 2024 version of Hogan. True for Gawn but also average ruckman win flags all the time.

 

[Forward Press]

At the end of the day I look at like this, if the Tigers had no Dustin from '17 to '20 but instead had Pendlebury, do the Tigers still win those flags?

If we had Gary jnr instead of Dustin do we win those flags? I say No.

Selfish Gary jnr has on his resume a 38 disposal and 2 goal game whilst playing for a Norm Smith rather than allowing the Norm Smith to come to him. Now let's not forget that's Gary jnr playing for a stacked team that only lost 1 game during the 2008 H&A season, so he could no way of did for the Tigers what Dustin did in a team not as stacked as that Geelong team.

I'm not saying that Dustin is the greatest of all time, but it's not selfish Gary jnr that's better than him.

Yet another new Richmond account immediately going into this thread into bat for Dusty.

Not suspicious at all.

 

[Take the VC not the IV]

That is what he/she is saying. It is hard to believe that is what they are saying, but it is.

Possibly one of the dumbest things I have ever read on this forum.

Understand that we don't even make 3rd in 2017 with Gary jnr, and unless you're the Swans in 2024 (1st at the end of the H&A season), it's usually important where you end up on the ladder.

 

[iameviljez]

May ≠ Rance and they didn't have the 2024 version of Hogan. True for Gawn but also average ruckman win flags all the time.

Yeah, May isn't as good as Rance, who was probably the best tall defender in the game at the time.

Hogan would have been excellent for a lot longer with better service. As it was, he was still very good in an ordinary team.

 

[doppleganger]

If Melbourne had drafted Martin they probably would have won a flag before their break-through win in 2021. I'm not sure that I would be as confident with saying that about any other contemporary player. Martin was a great player.

Way too many hypotheticals in that.

The fact that Melbourne floundered with Watts, Scully and Trengrove from 08/09 drafts meant they were back at the bottom again in 13/14 which allowed them to get Trac, Brayshaw and Oliver.

Take Dusty instead of Trengrove, and they may have built a bit and avoided being back bottom couple again in 13/14 and then miss out of Trac, Oliver etc.

 

[Captain_Bender]

That's true, but they did have Steven May and Jesse Hogan... and Richmond didn't have anything like Max Gawn. (Nobody else did).

Steven May and Jesse Hogan were never on Melbourne's list at the same time

 

[iameviljez]

Steven May and Jesse Hogan were never on Melbourne's list at the same time

Fair point.

That said, I disagree with whatever that original assertion was about Dusty potentially delivering Melbourne an earlier flag.

 

[Cdog71]

He may have had a better single peak year, but overall Joel matched him.

Rubbish
He was a straight line runner who could only play one position

 

[Cdog71]

There is a difference between being in the midfield and playing in the midfield.

Are H/F’d midfielders?

Or say a player who attends centre bounces but then only plays fwd?
Like Chapman from Geelong say.

 

[doppleganger]

Rubbish
He was a straight line runner who could only play one position

Straight line runner as opposed to an indirect runner?

Yep, Selwood was that good he was straight into the guts as a kid and was too important and impactful to play anywhere else.

Player ratings, coaches votes, and brownlow votes have all spoken not much splits Dusty and Selwood.

 

[Cdog71]

Straight line runner as opposed to an indirect runner?

Yep, Selwood was that good he was straight into the guts as a kid and was too important and impactful to play anywhere else.

Player ratings, coaches votes, and brownlow votes have all spoken not much splits Dusty and Selwood.

What was bobby hills rating in the 23 gf?

Or Pendlebury’s with his 2 possesion quarter and 1 norm smith vote

 

[Cdog71]

Yep, Selwood was that good he was straight into the guts as a kid and was too important and impactful to play anywhere else.

Not really.
He could only play 1 mtr from the ball.
If there was a way to measure “Grit” he’d be the bench mark but really he was a grind it forward mid.
And a pure in and under mid no other position.
Less than half a goal a game at nearly 50/50 conversion rate with about 6 clangers and about 12 kicks.

 

[doppleganger]

What was bobby hills rating in the 23 gf?

Bobby - 12.9

Or Pendlebury’s with his 2 possesion quarter and 1 norm smith vote

Pendles had most disposals and CP in Q4 as he delivered a flag, and had a rating of 14.4.

Player ratings are never wrong, MR has proven that. Dusty's 2017 norm smith performance was almost 3x more impactful than Bobby Hill's game.

Just imagine if Dusty had been able to impact some H&A games, his career avg might be higher than Sloane.

 

[Cdog71]

Bobby - 12.9


Pendles had most disposals and CP in Q4 as he delivered a flag, and had a rating of 14.4.

Player ratings are never wrong, MR has proven that. Dusty's 2017 norm smith performance was almost 3x more impactful than Bobby Hill's game.

Just imagine if Dusty had been able to impact some H&A games, his career avg might be higher than Sloane.

H/A is the first final.
It why clubs have 44 players, but it’s not why clubs line up to play.
12.9 wow

Don’t see too many threads posted by Collingwood supporters about Rory Sloane.
Got pantsed in a Gf by a 5 gamer…wonder what his player rating was.

The other thing about your player ratings , what is it 1 kick 1 point? 1 goal 2 points?
It doesn’t take into account the intangibles like how perhaps it was Pendlebury’s 2018 GF preformance that gave him the drive to have one very good quarter in the 23 GF.

 

[doppleganger]

12.9 wow

Yeah 4 goals, a GA and most score involvements on the ground.

But as MR will tell us, Dusty was 3x better then that in 2017 GF and 2x better in 2019 GF.

Coz playa ratings.

Don’t see too many threads posted by Collingwood supporters about Rory Sloane.
Got pantsed in a Gf by a 5 gamer…wonder what his player rating was.

Why would Pies fans be posting about the consistently brilliant Sloane for?

The other thing about your player ratings , what is it 1 kick 1 point? 1 goal 2 points?

Player Ratings adopts a different approach. It creates an "equity rating" which uses historical data based on ground location to assess likelihood of the next score.

As an example, take a mark at top of goal square the result is something like 95% chance of the next score being a goal. So the start equity is 5.7, when you kick the goal (6 points) you get +0.3 rating added to player rating.

Miss the goal, you get circa -4.0 for that kick.( get a 1 for the actual behind, and then from a kick-in there is a equity factor that next score will be to your team again).

The bloke kicking the gimme goal doesn't get much reward via ratings, but the bloke who kicked it to him will...miss it and go negative. Another reason why forwards rating much more volatile, as miss a few easy goals and you cop big negative hits to player ratings.

That is applied all over the ground, and they also add in adjustments based on whether from a mark, under pressure etc. And they then do also give points to defensive acts that create pressure, turn-over etc.

Actions close to goal have a high impact on the scoreboard so efficient ball use forward of centre, accurate kicking in front of goal are all rewarded highly. They used to use that as an explanation as to why Cyril could get a higher rating with 15 disposals, then D.Swan would get with 40!!

Again, plenty doubt them as in reality they are just a different approach to supercoach scores etc., many instances where a team loses but they have a higher overall team player ratings score (starting to get into expected score territory so off track).

Main note is that any rating algorithm has their flaws, none are perfect, but they provide a good guide over dry descriptive stats.

MR spamming the player ratings so much to fluff Dusty's finals has been very convincing, won me over.

The obvious next step is to look at overall career player rating avg to help validate Dusty's overall standing. Just as they clearly show his finals dominance, they also show his overall career impact ain't at GOAT level.

MR has done a wonderful job helping prove Dusty doesn't belong in any GOAT discussions, as all you do is take his arguments re finals and review overall career.

Simples.

And this is backed up not statistical measures, he has more Gary Ayers medals than club BnFs.

 

[terrybull]

Undisputed means it's so obvious that you could not even have a discussion, like saying Ablett was an undisputed better midfielder than Tim Taranto. There's no planet where you can back Taranto's case.

Playing above average finals in 4 seasons would open the debate to players whose finals excellence was not as concentrated, but spread over a wider range of years and situations.

KB, Carey, Matthews, Ayres, Brereton, Skilton, Barrassi, Coventry, Dunstall, either Ablett, Hodge, Kennedy, Selwood, Judd, Pendlebury, Kernahan, Matera, McLeod, Mitchell, Chapman, Black - stellar big game performers with strong finals performances/series spread across very large careers.

If Martin was the undisputed greatest finals player then it would be embarrassing to even suggest other names.

Few if any had such a 4 year hot streak in finals. But most of them proved great finals players from their very junior years right through to when they were grizzled veterans. They did it in a number of close games, losing games and blowouts. In premiership teams and non-premiership teams.

Skilton only played in one Final game? A semi final loss I thinks.

 

[iameviljez]

Not really.
He could only play 1 mtr from the ball.
If there was a way to measure “Grit” he’d be the bench mark but really he was a grind it forward mid.
And a pure in and under mid no other position.
Less than half a goal a game at nearly 50/50 conversion rate with about 6 clangers and about 12 kicks.

In his last four years, yes. But certainly not in his mid-twenties, when he was excellent and would have won a Brownlow but for some freak who used to be his teammate.

Selwood and Pendlebury are commonly grouped together for good reason - they couldn't do what Ablett, Fyfe, Dangerfield and Dusty could do. But what they did have was a level of career-long professionalism that, well, Ablett and Dusty at least, couldn't match.

 

[FootyLad0]

You see you're reading my comments with a hostile spirit, that's your problem right there.

Imagine doubling down on saying Gaz Jr wouldn't be just as if not MORE impactful than Dusty in those Richmond sides.

Ablett Jr was BETTER FOR LONGER.

I swear people didn't watch him play. He was THAT GOOD.

 

[PhatBoy]

Don't you love the way these guys while pulling their hair out, scream at you that they are completely cool about Richmond & Dusty demolishing their team in 3 finals within 4 years ...

Not as much as I love the way you claim to have been watching the game for half a century but think your team is the only one that’s ever beaten Geelong in a few finals games, but that for some reason - in the one era where we’ve actually enjoyed a tonne of success - we get upset about it and can’t handle it simply because we don’t share your ‘must have’ hot-take on everything.