Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Blackhawk42]

The thread title is Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? I don't think Will Day and DGB fit into that narrative.

Are you saying 2016-2018 was a success or failure? The critics among us said topping up in that period wouldn't lead to much because the players coming in weren't as good as the players going out, the cost to bring in ready made players is high and the remaining core of experienced players wasn't that good.

Of the big name trades, anyone with half a footy brain recognises 23 year old Tom Mitchell was a good trade (for both clubs actually), giving up a lot for O'Meara was iffy and giving up a lot for Wingard to add to a Dad's Army team that was bounced in straight sets was also iffy. Are you better off with O'Meara and Wingard than a couple more first and second round picks on the list with a few years development?

Hawthorn have showed a bit in 2021 (didn't see any of Rd 2 but the Rd 1 trolling of Essendon was great) but if the improvement is coming from the 19-22 year olds what is the likely timeline of success? Wingard and Mitchell are 28 this year, Shiels, Gunston, Ceglar 30, Breust 31, McEvoy 32, Burgoyne 87.

2018 was a success then we approached that off-season incorrectly. Burton for Wingard and trading all our picks out of a super draft was misguided. We should have topped up on the run with quality kids through the draft and Jack Scrimshaw.
Instead we sold the farm and brought in Wingard and Tom Scully.

Scully hampered the development of Harry Morrison, then you could argue Patton affected Mitch Lewis. Those two being gone is the best thing that could have happened to us. Morrison and Lewis were both good yesterday.

We draft well this season and maybe add a quality free agent, combined with a returning Gunston, Sicily and Day and finals in 2023 should be a realistic goal.

Not expecting to be premiership contenders for a while longer though.

 

[hk89]

2018 was a success then we approached that off-season incorrectly. Burton for Wingard and trading all our picks out of a super draft was misguided. We should have topped up on the run with quality kids through the draft and Jack Scrimshaw.
Instead we sold the farm and brought in Wingard and Tom Scully.

Scully ultimately ended up being a failure, but we hardly sold the farm when you look at what Burton has become, which is a decent, perhaps slightly above average player. His best year has still been the year he was runner up in the rising star, and he's now 24, so probably with limited further upside. We gave up a player who had already peaked and hasn't reached those heights again, and pick 15, 35 and some later 4th rounders for Wingard and Scrimshaw which is close to a break even given there is easily time for Wingard to play in a finals winning side at Hawthorn, and is currently one of our few players with true class. Scrimshaw turned out to be a lot better than he'd been able to prove while at GC, which made up somewhat for the failure on Scully (who we also paid next to nothing for). Port definitely won out of the deal, based on good use of all their picks that year, but all things considered I don't think it ended up being the farm because Burton never turned into the prize pig many were hoping for after that breakout year in 2017.

We rolled the dice on a quick turnaround, and a few too many things went wrong for the gamble to pay off. We've likely extended the length of our rebuild a little by going down that road, but I'm still happy we gave it a shot, even though it was a high risk strategy.

 

[ScrewInStuds]

Just stating the facts
There hasnt been a better harvest of free first round draft choices so quickly in AFL history

Patton (pick 1, paid for with future 4th)
O'Meara (pick 1 mini draft, paid for with pick 10 and a future 2nd)
Scully (pick 1, paid for with a future 4th)
O'Rourke (pick 2, paid for with 19 and a swap of 43 for 40)
Hawks have their own source of cheap first round picks (ie the Northern teams), but thus far have been unable to assemble them into anything resembling a competitive footy team.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

The thread title is Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? I don't think Will Day and DGB fit into that narrative.

Are you saying 2016-2018 was a success or failure? The critics among us said topping up in that period wouldn't lead to much because the players coming in weren't as good as the players going out, the cost to bring in ready made players is high and the remaining core of experienced players wasn't that good.

Of the big name trades, anyone with half a footy brain recognises 23 year old Tom Mitchell was a good trade (for both clubs actually), giving up a lot for O'Meara was iffy and giving up a lot for Wingard to add to a Dad's Army team that was bounced in straight sets was also iffy. Are you better off with O'Meara and Wingard than a couple more first and second round picks on the list with a few years development?

Hawthorn have showed a bit in 2021 (didn't see any of Rd 2 but the Rd 1 trolling of Essendon was great) but if the improvement is coming from the 19-22 year olds what is the likely timeline of success? Wingard and Mitchell are 28 this year, Shiels, Gunston, Ceglar 30, Breust 31, McEvoy 32, Burgoyne 87.

You can almost narrow down the problems to the enormous prices paid for O’Meara and Wingard.

Two poor trades which have really cost the Hawks.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Patton (pick 1, paid for with future 4th)
O'Meara (pick 1 mini draft, paid for with pick 10 and a future 2nd)
Scully (pick 1, paid for with a future 4th)
O'Rourke (pick 2, paid for with 19 and a swap of 43 for 40)
Hawks have their own source of cheap first round picks (ie the Northern teams), but thus far have been unable to assemble them into anything resembling a competitive footy team.

But they were available to every team (in Victoria).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[HairyO]

Patton (pick 1, paid for with future 4th)
O'Meara (pick 1 mini draft, paid for with pick 10 and a future 2nd)
Scully (pick 1, paid for with a future 4th)
O'Rourke (pick 2, paid for with 19 and a swap of 43 for 40)
Hawks have their own source of cheap first round picks (ie the Northern teams), but thus far have been unable to assemble them into anything resembling a competitive footy team.

Scrimshaw was an absolute steal.

Mitchell with 14 was a bargain. And we used our 1st round picks in 2019 and 2020.

Hardwick is going to have the same decision with the Tigers. Does he keep going for wins or throw in the towel and rebuild? They have plent of good picks this year.

How many on kids and how many on trades ?

 

[HairyO]

You can almost narrow down the problems to the enormous prices paid for O’Meara and Wingard.

Two poor trades which have really cost the Hawks.

OMeara was probably Best on Ground yesterday. We traded for easily the best young talent in the comp before injury and took a punt.

Wingard was in our best 3 last year. And will probably be again this year once he gets started.

 

[carnthedons]

You can almost narrow down the problems to the enormous prices paid for O’Meara and Wingard.

Two poor trades which have really cost the Hawks.

They were dumb trades at the time, O’Meara especially when you consider what they gave the saints to get the pick for him and that he’d not played for two years at the time.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

OMeara was probably Best on Ground yesterday. We traded for easily the best young talent in the comp before injury and took a punt.

Wingard was in our best 3 last year. And will probably be again this year once he gets started.

I don’t think any of that changes what I said.

 

[HairyO]

I don’t think any of that changes what I said.

We used speculative picks to speculate on OMeara and got a known entity in Wingard.

I would think most clubs would do trades like that.

If you look at the picks given for Shiel Smith and Stringer Id say we did far better.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

We used speculative picks to speculate on OMeara and got a known entity in Wingard.

I would think most clubs would do trades like that.

If you look at the picks given for Shiel Smith and Stringer Id say we did far better.

O’Meara had huge injury problems. Wingard is a “nice” player, but nobody’s building a young team around him.

A lot of convoluted trades, pick swaps and steak knives here and there... but taking all that out...

To get O’Meara and Wingard, the Hawks lost:

Brad Hill
Ryan Burton
2016 Pick 36
2017 Pick 7
2017 Pick 26
2018 Pick 15
2018 Pick 35

The price was huge. Especially given the Hawks recruiters’ proven ability to draft well. That’s seven draft picks in the Top 40 - an enormous price to pay and one that would totally change the complexion of the Hawks’ list.

Both trades were huge errors. The rebuild would basically be complete without them.

 

[QuietB]

O’Meara had huge injury problems. Wingard is a “nice” player, but nobody’s building a young team around him.

A lot of convoluted trades, pick swaps and steak knives here and there... but taking all that out...

To get O’Meara and Wingard, the Hawks lost:

Brad Hill
Ryan Burton
2016 Pick 36
2017 Pick 7
2017 Pick 26
2018 Pick 15
2018 Pick 35

The price was huge. Especially given the Hawks recruiters’ proven ability to draft well. That’s seven draft picks in the Top 40 - an enormous price to pay and one that would totally change the complexion of the Hawks’ list.

Both trades were huge errors. The rebuild would basically be complete without them.

Firstly Wingard is arguably Hawthorns best player - he is a star. When he plays well Hawthorn play well. O'mera has not reached his potential but is still a solid player.

Regarding what they cost I would offer the following (assuming what you have listed is correct - I have not checked it);

Brad Hill - just a player now. You do not build a team around Brad Hill - he is a finishing piece.
Ryan Burton - Handy player but just a player. Hawks half back stocks are looking pretty good right now.
2016 Pick 36 - second round pick barely counts for anything
2017 Pick 7 - that is a good pick - the Saints took Hunter Clark
2017 Pick 26 - second round pick barely counts for anything
2018 Pick 15 - that is a reasonable pick - Port took Xavier Duursma
2018 Pick 35 - second round pick barely counts for anything

Maybe the Hawks paid too much but you do need senior players in your squad to support the kids and at the time O'Meara and then Wingard were recruited the entire Hawthorn midfield was retiring (Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis)

What the Hawks paid was not better or worse than what Essendon paid for Dylan Sheil who is probably at the same level as O'Meara.

 

[The Devils Advocate]

Essendon and Hawthorn both thought they were in premierships windows but were completely wrong, which has them both in the wilderness IMO (along with North). At least Essendon had three first rounders last year, finally realising they were rebuilding

 

[Crankyhawk]

Patton (pick 1, paid for with future 4th)
O'Meara (pick 1 mini draft, paid for with pick 10 and a future 2nd)
Scully (pick 1, paid for with a future 4th)
O'Rourke (pick 2, paid for with 19 and a swap of 43 for 40)
Hawks have their own source of cheap first round picks (ie the Northern teams), but thus far have been unable to assemble them into anything resembling a competitive footy team.

Only omeara gets on the field. The others got dumped for reasons (I suspect gws knew about the dick pic issues too- still fair play to them)

 

[RUNVS]

Only omeara gets on the field. The others got dumped for reasons (I suspect gws knew about the dick pic issues too- still fair play to them)

If GWS did know then Tom Scully should have known too. Surely he could have told Hawthorn?

 

[Crankyhawk]

If GWS did know then Tom Scully should have known too. Surely he could have told Hawthorn?

He was also too busy not being on the park and may not have been the most observant at the club..

 

[QuietB]

Essendon and Hawthorn both thought they were in premierships windows but were completely wrong, which has them both in the wilderness IMO (along with North). At least Essendon had three first rounders last year, finally realising they were rebuilding

Of course Hawthorn won three premierships in row only 6 years ago so I am not sure comparisons with Essendon are particularly relevant.

 

[The Devils Advocate]

Of course Hawthorn won three premierships in row only 6 years ago so I am not sure comparisons with Essendon are particularly relevant.

It's the current position that matters right now, also the thread title.
Yes, Essendon have been mediocre for 19 years now. Doesn't mean our lists aren't in the same terrible shape.

 

[Kozzie_Magic]

Firstly Wingard is arguably Hawthorns best player - he is a star. When he plays well Hawthorn play well. O'mera has not reached his potential but is still a solid player.

Regarding what they cost I would offer the following (assuming what you have listed is correct - I have not checked it);

Brad Hill - just a player now. You do not build a team around Brad Hill - he is a finishing piece.
Ryan Burton - Handy player but just a player. Hawks half back stocks are looking pretty good right now.
2016 Pick 36 - second round pick barely counts for anything
2017 Pick 7 - that is a good pick - the Saints took Hunter Clark
2017 Pick 26 - second round pick barely counts for anything
2018 Pick 15 - that is a reasonable pick - Port took Xavier Duursma
2018 Pick 35 - second round pick barely counts for anything

Maybe the Hawks paid too much but you do need senior players in your squad to support the kids and at the time O'Meara and then Wingard were recruited the entire Hawthorn midfield was retiring (Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis)

What the Hawks paid was not better or worse than what Essendon paid for Dylan Sheil who is probably at the same level as O'Meara.

2nd round pick barely counts for anything?

LOL, righteo mate

 

[Kozzie_Magic]

If GWS did know then Tom Scully should have known too. Surely he could have told Hawthorn?

Why? The GWS players were only interested in getting more money before leaving the sport because they knew their careers were over.

 

[QuietB]

2nd round pick barely counts for anything?

LOL, righteo mate

So these are the 2nd round picks;

2016 Pick 36 (ended up being pick 39) - Josh Battle
2017 Pick 26 - Liam Ryan (ouch)
2018 Pick 35 (ended up being pick 40) - Tom Joyce

Liam Ryan is a ripper but you can have the other two. 2nd round picks are a lottery.

 

[QuietB]

It's the current position that matters right now, also the thread title.
Yes, Essendon have been mediocre for 19 years now. Doesn't mean our lists aren't in the same terrible shape.

Hawthorn were entitled to pretend they were still a chance in 2016/17/18 when they went and got O'Meara and Wingard.

In hindsight they were obviously not still a chance but the triple premiership guys still at Hawthorn deserved some reinforcements to give them another crack.

 

[HairyO]

Essendon and Hawthorn both thought they were in premierships windows but were completely wrong, which has them both in the wilderness IMO (along with North). At least Essendon had three first rounders last year, finally realising they were rebuilding

Dont you mean:
At least Hawthorn were in the premiership window and won 3 flags in a row.

Who had Essendon in the premiership window?

Also, we let Burton go knowing we were getting Scrimshaw for nothing.

Id rate Scrimshaw far higher than Burton too.

 

[Roby]

How you can criticise getting O'Meara after yesterday's game boggles the mind.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Firstly Wingard is arguably Hawthorns best player - he is a star. When he plays well Hawthorn play well. O'mera has not reached his potential but is still a solid player.

Regarding what they cost I would offer the following (assuming what you have listed is correct - I have not checked it);

Brad Hill - just a player now. You do not build a team around Brad Hill - he is a finishing piece.
Ryan Burton - Handy player but just a player. Hawks half back stocks are looking pretty good right now.
2016 Pick 36 - second round pick barely counts for anything
2017 Pick 7 - that is a good pick - the Saints took Hunter Clark
2017 Pick 26 - second round pick barely counts for anything
2018 Pick 15 - that is a reasonable pick - Port took Xavier Duursma
2018 Pick 35 - second round pick barely counts for anything

Maybe the Hawks paid too much but you do need senior players in your squad to support the kids and at the time O'Meara and then Wingard were recruited the entire Hawthorn midfield was retiring (Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis)

What the Hawks paid was not better or worse than what Essendon paid for Dylan Sheil who is probably at the same level as O'Meara.

Both Hill and Burton were worth Top 40 picks. There’s seven round 1 and 2 picks there that the Hawks have let go for JOM and Wingard when all is said and done. It’s an enormous price.

Picks in the 20s and 30s barely count for anything? Lol... Look what the Hawks recruiters have pulled out with later picks... what could they have done with seven more picks?

That’s the whole rebuild right there. Flushed away by two very poor trades.