Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Blackhawk42]

Tell me when one of those turns into Dusty Martin or Paddy Dangerfield.

Ridley has already won a best and fairest and is currently the highest averaging player in the game in 2021 according to Champion Data. Are we only rating Brownlow medalists now?

 

[hawkman]

Not really the point though is it, if we're looking at the overall quality of players taken in the second round.

Touk Miller and Maynard are more than just 'solid players' - both top 5 for their sides, Touk is one of the best defensive mids in the league, Maynard is one of the better mid-sized defenders.

That whole post is a pisstake though 'Hibberd OK' for the 2015 draft - genuine nuffie contribution.

Looking through that list though it is probably really only a 20-25% hit rate on getting a good player. We gave up 4-5 2nd round picks for Wingard and O'Meara, on balance of averages we missed out on 1 good player because of those trades. The 2 top picks are worse but don't massively move the needle for us. Clark, Duursma and 1 good player from the 2nd round for O'Meara and Wingard (Scrimshaw cheaply washes off some the Burton value in the trade)

We overpaid but i don't think those trades have set us back as bad as it has been made out

 

[Roby]

Yesterday's game from Omera was elite.. the issue is, that's how he should be playing every week for us.. that is what we paid big $$$ and trade currency for...Since coming to us, you can count on one hand how many "elite" games he has played...he is a B grade midfielder that every other team has..plays one excellent game every 5 weeks.. that's only 4-5 a year...which is simply not good enough...with his injury history, our trade for him in hindsight was deplorable and one that set us back, especially with the shape of our list...

whilst i really like wingard as well, our trade for him was just as bad...Wingard is the type of player you get when you are in a premiership window for 3-4 years... we won't be playing finals for at least the next 3 years, if not longer and won't be challenging for a flag for at least another 5-6 years, he will be retired by then..

O'meara is currently 8th in the coaches votes. I wouldn't say that's B grade. Can you please tell who the Hawks would've picked in the draft instead that provides more value now?

 

[La Dispute]

Looking through that list though it is probably really only a 20-25% hit rate on getting a good player. We gave up 4-5 2nd round picks for Wingard and O'Meara, on balance of averages we missed out on 1 good player because of those trades. The 2 top picks are worse but don't massively move the needle for us. Clark, Duursma and 1 good player from the 2nd round for O'Meara and Wingard (Scrimshaw cheaply washes off some the Burton value in the trade)

We overpaid but i don't think those trades have set us back as bad as it has been made out

This idea has been done to death, I was more unpacking the deluded set of observations about other team's drafting in the second round.

Burton gets undermined ad nauseam by Hawkes supporters, but he's had a good start to the year and certainly one of their best in their landslide loss to West Coast. No reason he and Scrimshaw wouldn't have been able to coexist, with Burton moving up to wing.

The premise of this thread has been watered down to the extreme though.

 

[La Dispute]

O'meara is currently 8th in the coaches votes. I wouldn't say that's B grade. Can you please tell who the Hawks would've picked in the draft instead that provides more value now?

He's 2 votes ahead of Sam Wicks and Noah Anderson - are these guys A-graders too?

The tally at this point in the year means very little, and a player like JOM has no trouble impacting massively a couple of times a year. Needs to do it far more consistently, which has been the knock on him for years now.

 

[La Dispute]

I'm not sure what is being argued here? Hawks tried and failed didn't they? So maybe they could in theory but they certainly didn't.

Also think the Wingard trade was good when you factor in Burton's hamstrings and general meh levels of play since.

Burton AND Duursma have both had good starts to the year, Reckon Duursma has taken another step and was probably Port's best against Essendon.

Edit: Butters, but Duursma wasn't far behind.

Even the most ardent Hawkes supporter wouldn't be backing the trade at this point in time. Wingard is still an enigmatic player who's more icing that cake - on balance Port won that trade by a landslide.

 

[hawkman]

This idea has been done to death, I was more unpacking the deluded set of observations about other team's drafting in the second round.

Burton gets undermined ad nauseam by Hawkes supporters, but he's had a good start to the year and certainly one of their best in their landslide loss to West Coast. No reason he and Scrimshaw wouldn't have been able to coexist, with Burton moving up to wing.

The premise of this thread has been watered down to the extreme though.

The premise of the thread has been proven that we couldn't do it.

Don't see Burton ever being a wingman, Scrimshaw could push up further but Day is more likely. Our backline is solid enough without Burton in there, other areas of the ground is where we are lacking

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Not really the point though is it, if we're looking at the overall quality of players taken in the second round.

Touk Miller and Maynard are more than just 'solid players' - both top 5 for their sides, Touk is one of the best defensive mids in the league, Maynard is one of the better mid-sized defenders.

That whole post is a pisstake though 'Hibberd OK' for the 2015 draft - genuine nuffie contribution.

Well from the 2015 list we have a few not including Hibberd (Does he know who that Hibberd actually was)

Ben Keays
Josh Dunkley
Mason Redman
Brayden Sier
Marcus Adams
Riley Bonner


Varying degrees but some quality amongst them.

 

[La Dispute]

The premise of the thread has been proven that we couldn't do it.

Don't see Burton ever being a wingman, Scrimshaw could push up further but Day is more likely. Our backline is solid enough without Burton in there, other areas of the ground is where we are lacking

Could comfortably see Burton occupying a wing, but Port use his read and general smarts around the ground to help them set up. Maybe it'd be Scrimshaw pushed to the outside for his class and ball use going inside 50?

Either way Hawthorn would fit them in if available.

 

[La Dispute]

Well from the 2015 list we have a few not including Hibberd (Does he know who that Hibberd actually was)

Ben Keays
Josh Dunkley
Mason Redman
Brayden Sier
Marcus Adams
Riley Bonner

Varying degrees but some quality amongst them.

Not the worst set of names.

Keays is developing into a real nice inside mid, the others are at worst solid role players.

 

[Roby]

He's 2 votes ahead of Sam Wicks and Noah Anderson - are these guys A-graders too?

The tally at this point in the year means very little, and a player like JOM has no trouble impacting massively a couple of times a year. Needs to do it far more consistently, which has been the knock on him for years now.

You've misconstrued what was said to form your stance.

Noah could be A grade soon, Wicks who knows, maybe he will be this year too.

Both those players got votes in one game this year. O'Meara has got votes in two games this year. What else is he supposed to do other then be Dustin Martin? Jaeger is the leading stoppage clearance player in the ALL right now.

My question was right now who the Hawks would've picked up in the draft that would provide better value right now? If you can't answer that your criticisms are of no value.

 

[La Dispute]

You've misconstrued what was said to form your stance.

Noah could be A garde soon, Wicks who knows, maybe he will be this year too.

Both those players got votes in one game this year. O'Meara has got votes in two games this year. What else is he supposed to do other then be Dustin Martin? Jaeger is the leading stoppage clearance player in the ALL right now.

My question was right now who the Hawks would've picked up in the draft that would provide better value right now? If you can't answer that your criticisms are of no value.

Hope these aren't the only two decent games games JOM turns out! He has form in this area. But it's largely irrelevant if he's got votes in one game OR two games - the tally at this stage doesn't discriminate. Lets revisit at the end of the year when he's got a bigger sample size.

I'd happily take Hunter Clark ahead of Jaeger FWIW - longevity of career, and week-to-week consistency are far superior (albeit Clark has had a pretty slow start to this year).

 

[Bradkli]

O'meara is currently 8th in the coaches votes. I wouldn't say that's B grade. Can you please tell who the Hawks would've picked in the draft instead that provides more value now?

No one knows who we would have picked BUT I can tell you that from the second round in 2017, I would take the following players now over Omera..keeping in mind we gave up a lot more than just the one pick.

- Oscar Allen- our key forward depth is the worst in the afl. He’s the exact player we need. Would be our number 1 forward. O’Brien is finished and kozi wouldn’t get a game for any other side. Mitch Lewis has potential to be a number 3, but his attitude so far has been disappointing.

- Tim Kelly- out midfield depth is weak..our midfield is slow and one dimensional...like Allen, an exact player we need

-Noah Balta- our half backs and running defenders are excellent but our key backs are a average at best. Hartigan and frost are a weak combo..hopefully DGB can turn into a gun defender but you need at least two to challenge for a flag.. Balta would be our best key defender

- Liam Ryan- would just about be our best player..have struggled to replace Cyril since he retired..Moore and Hanrahan won’t make it. Brockman looks like he will be a player but not close to the league Ryan is in.

 

[WillHayward]

B: Jiath (21), Grainger-Barras (18), Hardwick (24)

HB: Day (19), Sicily (25), Scrimshaw (22)

That’s as good a young defence as there is in the competition.

All Hawthorn need is two midfielders, one small forward and a key forward.

That's 4 good players.
U need to nail the draft this year.

 

[Bradkli]

That's 4 good players.
U need to nail the draft this year.

And the year after..we desperately need a gun midfielder and key forward, we probably need two of each.

Backline is building very nicely.

We will see Conor downie this season, who will be a solid AFL wingman. Finn McGinness is building nicely in the VFL, playing as a tagger. He will eventually be a consistent AFL midfielder but we just lack class. We don’t have a bont, Fyfe, dusty, Pendlebury, petrecca type.

Tyler Brockman looks to finally be our Cyril replacement as well, which we have been desperate for.

Our biggest issue atm is James Worpel. He’s horribly out of form and simply can’t play in the same midfield as Mitchell, Omera and Shiels. His skills are not good enough to play as a half back or half back, so there isn’t a place for him. It will be interesting to see what Clarko does.

 

[QuietB]

That's 4 good players.
U need to nail the draft this year.

Or get our own state

 

[Pessimistic]

6 years on only 3 clubs have a flag. 14 other than Hawks do not. Plenty haven’t succeeded despite lots of shots in the ‘elite end’

let’s follow the 3 successful clubs not the rest

 

[Joao]

Burton AND Duursma have both had good starts to the year, Reckon Duursma has taken another step and was probably Port's best against Essendon.

Edit: Butters, but Duursma wasn't far behind.

Even the most ardent Hawkes supporter wouldn't be backing the trade at this point in time. Wingard is still an enigmatic player who's more icing that cake - on balance Port won that trade by a landslide.

I think it is fair to distance the player selected from the draft pick (unless it is pick 1-3) and Wingard is still a far superior player to Duursma.

The big problem with the trade is not recognising that they were toilet and hence Chad's abilities will largely go to waste.

 

[Tulip]

6 years on only 3 clubs have a flag. 14 other than Hawks do not. Plenty haven’t succeeded despite lots of shots in the ‘elite end’

let’s follow the 3 successful clubs not the rest

Five years on

 

[La Dispute]

I think it is fair to distance the player selected from the draft pick (unless it is pick 1-3) and Wingard is still a far superior player to Duursma.

The big problem with the trade is not recognising that they were toilet and hence Chad's abilities will largely go to waste.

I guess that is the crux of the issue though. Hawthorn are going through a reset and players like Duursma and Burton would be far more beneficial in the medium-long term than Wingard. Had they not traded that pick they could have added a decent young player in a strong draft than swing for the hills with Chad.

Would have been interesting had the Bulldogs landed Chad instead. Would have missed out on Smith (which they could probably cop given the quality of their midfield, and they probably would have received a pick in return anyway), but their forwardline would be looking ominous at this point in time.

 

[Bradkli]

I think it is fair to distance the player selected from the draft pick (unless it is pick 1-3) and Wingard is still a far superior player to Duursma.

The big problem with the trade is not recognising that they were toilet and hence Chad's abilities will largely go to waste.

Exactly!! That’s the most frustrating thing when our supporters say “but the draft is a lottery..” “Wingard and Omera are better than who we would have drafted anyway”...that’s not the point!! We are no better with them than we would be playing 18-20 year olds...we’re going to be bottom 5-6 for at least the next 2-3 years. Both Wingard and Omera will be closer to the end by the time we are playing finals and challenging again.

 

[Iceman!]

How is this thread even still going lmfao.

We tried to top up and win a flag or two after 16, it didn’t work and even if we rebound now quicker than most expect we have already accessed the ‘elite end of the draft’.

I am not doom and gloom about our future, and those trades could still pay off if they are still around contributing to success in 4 or 5 years. It remains to be seen.

 

[Pessimistic]

Exactly!! That’s the most frustrating thing when our supporters say “but the draft is a lottery..” “Wingard and Omera are better than who we would have drafted anyway”...that’s not the point!! We are no better with them than we would be playing 18-20 year olds...we’re going to be bottom 5-6 for at least the next 2-3 years. Both Wingard and Omera will be closer to the end by the time we are playing finals and challenging again.

the only significant replacements needed ‘soon’ is for bigboy and Burgoyne

as I write this Joey Kennedy is hitting a purple patch at........32. Someone who left hawthorn for better opportunities

 

[Gavin Excell]

And the year after..we desperately need a gun midfielder and key forward, we probably need two of each.

Backline is building very nicely.

We will see Conor downie this season, who will be a solid AFL wingman. Finn McGinness is building nicely in the VFL, playing as a tagger. He will eventually be a consistent AFL midfielder but we just lack class. We don’t have a bont, Fyfe, dusty, Pendlebury, petrecca type.

Tyler Brockman looks to finally be our Cyril replacement as well, which we have been desperate for.

Our biggest issue atm is James Worpel. He’s horribly out of form and simply can’t play in the same midfield as Mitchell, Omera and Shiels. His skills are not good enough to play as a half back or half back, so there isn’t a place for him. It will be interesting to see what Clarko does.

Yeah Worpel seems a shadow of the 2019 version

 

[Bradkli]

Yeah Worpel seems a shadow of the 2019 version

He was the main man in 2019 after Mitchell missed the whole season with his broken leg.. Omera had some good games, but was too inconsistent...whilst 2019 was great for Worpel on a personal level, his 2020 and start to 2021 has been below average...if we had better depth at Box Hill he would be dropped this week. Other than maybe James cousins, who’s the same type as what we currently have in the midfield, there really isn’t anyone else..

it’s now a huge issue as Mitchell and Omera still have 4-5 years left and he can’t play in the same midfield as them.