Can Port win a premiership under Ken Hinkley?

[Heeney2Franklin]

What if they kick 7.15 is that Hinkley fault again?

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

This is why Hinkley has been persisted with btw the players love him 95% of the Port board hates him for some reason but he gives them the chance in most seasons.

Its up to the players to want it enough.

 

[Back One Out]

Exactly.

This thread proves to me that the human brain of most people don’t really understand numbers. It’s as if people don’t understand that only 1 team out of 18 wins the premiership.

If Port are one of the 17 teams that don’t win the premiership (or 16 teams that don’t make Grand Final) this is normal, and expected.

The same fools calling for Hinkley head would be the same fools claiming Brisbane underachieved if they don’t win the premiership. How about we just award three premierships every year to give to the three-or-so teams who are good enough to win it.

The average human brain does not understand numbers and the unlikelyhood of certain events happening

And the better Hinkley coaches... the more times he gets his team into the Top 4, the more expectation everyone seems to place on him for Port to win it all. He essentially makes a rod for his own back.

It doesn't seem to occur to the nuffs over on the toxic Port Board that maybe their team has never quite been good enough to win the flag. Maybe a little like Terry Wallace's Bulldogs from 1997-2001. Close but no cigar. But they keep giving themselves a chance to win it with consistently good performances. With a little luck, they could do it. But they'd need a lot of things to go their way.

According to Port fans, 12 years is long enough for any coach. Time for everyone to move on. Maybe they are right. But I still don't get the hatred and scorn they have for Ken. Normally a coach gets booed when he takes his team to the bottom 4. Not the Top 4...

I don't think anyone could've done better at Port than Kenny has done over the past 5 years. Not Chris Scott. Not Longmire. Not Clarko, nor McRae, nor Sam Mitchell.

Every coach has their "use by date". Maybe Hinkley has reached his. Maybe it is time they parted ways and gave someone else a go. But he should be accorded respect from Port fans for getting his team close to the AFL summit. He doesn't deserve the shit he cops. It's footy barracking at it's worst.

You have to wonder how many prospective coaches wouldn't even bother moving from Victoria to Adelaide to take up a coaching job in SA given the awful treatment they receive from many of the local low-IQ clowns who think they know everything about football. Why would you put yourself through that if it came down to a choice between Saints or Port.. or Dees v Crows?

 

[daniel_4tw]

Exactly.

This thread proves to me that the human brain of most people don’t really understand numbers. It’s as if people don’t understand that only 1 team out of 18 wins the premiership.

If Port are one of the 17 teams that don’t win the premiership (or 16 teams that don’t make Grand Final) this is normal, and expected.

The same fools calling for Hinkley head would be the same fools claiming Brisbane underachieved if they don’t win the premiership. How about we just award three premierships every year to give to the three-or-so teams who are good enough to win it.

The average human brain does not understand numbers and the unlikelyhood of certain events happening

In isolation. Sure.

But if you want to play the odds game, Ken has had what, 11 attempts now? 11 attempts for a 1-18 chance of winning? Does he need to get 18 years before we say he’s not up to it?

How about the fact there are two grand finalists each year, so that is only 1-9 odds. In 11 years, he hasn’t been able to get to that milestone.

So even if it was a random coin toss, you would have expected a GF appearance at least by now.

Straight sets exits or 50 point home prelim losses shouldn’t be commended because he’s gotten them in a position they can lose.

The team needs to perform in finals. This might be the year, we’ll see.

 

[RCAB]

No, I don't see how comparing the record of one coach who has made a GF in 8 seasons as coach to another coach who has not made a GF in 12 seasons as coach (again, the one and only coach in AFL history to have ever coached 10 years without making one, let alone 12) is splitting hairs. Fagan has been around four less years and still has a better record. That's not splitting hairs. That's a very significant difference.

60.1% win rate vs 57.1% win rate says otherwise

What does this even mean lol

You have for years, kept using the list as an example of why Ken has underperformed, then in the same thread you say we can't asses lists because it's purely subjective. This is a poor argument as it's incongruous with your previous statements.

I'd take Fagan or McRae or anyone else from the twelve blokes I listed, yes.

You're not taking Fagan with a w8rse win/loss rate and with less finals. And Port's never had a forward line and defence as good as the Lions.

And what would McCrae add tactically to Port that you don't have right now? They both talk the same idioms at press conferences.

 

[Dan26]

In isolation. Sure.

But if you want to play the odds game, Ken has had what, 11 attempts now? 11 attempts for a 1-18 chance of winning? Does he need to get 18 years before we say he’s not up to it?

How about the fact there are two grand finalists each year, so that is only 1-9 odds. In 11 years, he hasn’t been able to get to that milestone.

So even if it was a random coin toss, you would have expected a GF appearance at least by now.

Straight sets exits or 50 point home prelim losses shouldn’t be commended because he’s gotten them in a position they can lose.

The team needs to perform in finals. This might be the year, we’ll see.

Happy to play the numbers game.

Hinkley has won 61% of his games. (in theory all things being equal it should be 50%). This is overs

He has made 3 Preliminary Finals in 11 years (27% of the time). You should make a prelim 4/18 of the time which is 22%, so this is overs too.

You should make a Grand Final 1/9 (11% of the time) and he hasn't made one in 11years, BUT two of those Preliminary Final were lost by less than a goal. If he had won those two narrow Preliminary Finals he wouldn't be a better coach. He'd still be the same coach with the same ability. But he would have been a luckier coach.

I've said it before.... the human brain of most people doesn't understand numbers. They think teams that don't win premierships are "underachieving" when in reality only one team can win it. I heard one lunatic a few weeks ago claim that if Sydney, Port or Brisbane don't win the premiership all three of them would have underachieved and Fagan and Hinkley should be sacked in that circumstance.

That total ignorance of the reality of numbers (1 out of 18) is mindboggling in the AFL world.

 

[Xtreme]

The stars are somewhat aligning for Port. Don't discount the chances of Hinkley having a statue outside of the stadium in 10 years time.

If he wins the premiership watch the haters change their tune.

 

[Schulzenfest]

60.1% win rate vs 57.1% win rate says otherwise



You have for years, kept using the list as an example of why Ken has underperformed, then in the same thread you say we can't asses lists because it's purely subjective. This is a poor argument as it's incongruous with your previous statements.



You're not taking Fagan with a w8rse win/loss rate and with less finals. And Port's never had a forward line and defence as good as the Lions.

And what would McCrae add tactically to Port that you don't have right now? They both talk the same idioms at press conferences.

No coach in the history of football has ever had more attention paid to their home and away win loss rate than Ken Hinkley. Because he has nothing else.

I'd still want him sacked if he'd never lost a home and away game in his career. The AFL is about finals and premierships. He's by far the biggest finals underperforming coach in the league right now. Possibly ever.

Four finals series in a row we've been knocked out at home against a lower rated side we beat in the H&A season. No other coach has ever or would ever survive such a record.

 

[El_Scorcho]

This thread proves to me that the human brain of most people don’t really understand numbers. It’s as if people don’t understand that only 1 team out of 18 wins the premiership.

If Port are one of the 17 teams that don’t win the premiership (or 16 teams that don’t make Grand Final) this is normal, and expected.

You're not making the argument you think you are.

Yes, only 1 team wins a premiership. Only 2 teams make a Grand Final. But a premiership is the goal. The goal isn't to be a good average team over the long term.

So a coach who can't get you to a GF but instead can only get you to the finals just over half the time isn't worth having. It's not a defence of Hinkley to say that he has a 60% win rate, that's just more evidence that he's the wrong coach. You need a coach who has a premiership ceiling, not a coach who can semi-regularly get you to the finals without that ceiling.

 

[El_Scorcho]

If he wins the premiership watch the haters change their tune.

I welcome the @s i'll get if we win it this year, but it would take a significant turnaround in our mentality that hasn't been demonstrated thus far.

 

[Dan26]

You're not making the argument you think you are.

Yes, only 1 team wins a premiership. Only 2 teams make a Grand Final. But a premiership is the goal. The goal isn't to be a good average team over the long term.

So a coach who can't get you to a GF but instead can only get you to the finals just over half the time isn't worth having. It's not a defence of Hinkley to say that he has a 60% win rate, that's just more evidence that he's the wrong coach. You need a coach who has a premiership ceiling, not a coach who can semi-regularly get you to the finals without that ceiling.

But once again you don’t understand numbers. This is my point. Only two teams can make the Grand Final. Plenty of good coaches and capable teams (let’s suppose there are 6 contenders every year) cannot make it because 6 into 2 doesn’t go. It sounds obvious, but the reality is that most people’s brain doesn’t compute the obvious. People’s brains look at the results, not the mathematics.

People say The Demons have underachieved and should have won more. They say Brisbane should have won one. They say Port should have won one. Hell, why don’t we just award 4 premierships every year. It’s ridiculous.

 

[RCAB]

No coach in the history of football has ever had more attention paid to their home and away win loss rate than Ken Hinkley. Because he has nothing else.

I'd still want him sacked if he'd never lost a home and away game in his career. The AFL is about finals and premierships. He's by far the biggest finals underperforming coach in the league right now. Possibly ever.

Four finals series in a row we've been knocked out at home against a lower rated side we beat in the H&A season. No other coach has ever or would ever survive such a record.

You're the most un-premiership club in the AFL right now. And it's not Hinkley, it's your supporters. You have the most toxic supporters in the AFL, and more symptomatic of a disease than a club going for premierships. Once Ken leaves, this will only get worse.

You repeated the same talking points about home and away and finals. You provided no insights into football tactics or strategies. It seems you have no idea about these things.

 

[Butters and Pepper]

Imagine how long a coach in charge of a Victorian club would last after telling the world "finals are scary".

Or "it's a tough game, someone has to lose".

Port supportes dont want someone who consistently smiles and laughs straight after a loss.

These things tell anyone with half a brain that the guy doesn't have what's required to lead and inspire the team to a premiership or even a grand final.

So why even bother wasting your time with a guy, who by actions (coaching record in finals, and big games generally) and words, has shown he doesn't have the capability that all clubs - and supporters - aspire to.

Yes we could get a Neeld or Richardson type, but if that happens we have another dip and get someone else, just like every other club has done since footy became a thing.

If players leave with Hinkley, then they can be on their way. If it means a drop on the ladder then so be it.

It's not the Ken Hinkley Football Club.

Supporters want hope for the future. They want judgements to be made by the club after a maximum 5 years where there is no premiership success, just as it is with every other club.

They don't want to be left with a Peter Schwab
type, when there are potential Alastair Clarkson types available.

They don't want someone who hangs around for 12 years and puts half his family on the club's payroll, and creates conflicts of interest by including players and other staff in greyhound syndicates.

Nor do supporters expect or want a coach who gets almost full media protection in an unprecedented manner. Or get lectured on a national program by a clown like Whateley, for supposedly being ungrateful and having unrealistic expectations.

The majority of Port supporters are just so sick and tired of the sight of the bloke, and the embarrassment he brings when he opens his mouth.

Finals are scary Ken, so get onya bike after the final minor round game this week, and save yourself from an anxiety attack in September.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

Every AFL watcher wouldn't take Hinkley as senior coach for their favourite club so why should Port after 12 years,?

 

[simba_]

This is why Hinkley has been persisted with btw the players love him 95% of the Port board hates him for some reason but he gives them the chance in most seasons.

Its up to the players to want it enough.

when you lose a game because 1) you set up incorrectly and 2) you get outcoached, that isn't "up to the players to want it enough" at all

 

[FIGJAM]

Whether he or they win this year, can we at least rectify the thread misspelling as Kern Hinkley?

 

[Mr Meow]

when you lose a game because 1) you set up incorrectly and 2) you get outcoached, that isn't "up to the players to want it enough" at all

What were the correct hypothetical set ups in the losing finals, and in what specific ways was Hinkley outcoached by his opposition in those games?

Very capable players not meeting their standards in critical moments (enter "it's Hinkley's job to make them play as they usually do! He said finals are SCARY!!!") looked like the cause of loss for at least a few of those finals. Or facing battle hardened dynasty teams who knew how to outlast the opposition (Hawthorn '14, Richmond '20).

 

[GinniWiz33]

I believe that there still short from winning and there are still areas of improvement and consistentcy from their talls is the main issue so they probably will make a semi or prelim

 

[PowerBaz]

Will lose to Giants or Cats week one and then get done by the Lions the week after.

Thread irrelevant

Like your finals series.

 

[PowerBaz]

I believe that there still short from winning and there are still areas of improvement and consistentcy from their talls is the main issue so they probably will make a semi or prelim

Our forward line under Ken has seemingly always relied on bomb it in on Dixons head. It’s our Achilles Heel. I’m keen to see a coach with a better method and structure going forward. Note: it’s changed a little of late with Rat, but we need Georgiadis back asap.

 

[Janus]

What were the correct hypothetical set ups in the losing finals, and in what specific ways was Hinkley outcoached by his opposition in those games?

Very capable players not meeting their standards in critical moments (enter "it's Hinkley's job to make them play as they usually do! He said finals are SCARY!!!") looked like the cause of loss for at least a few of those finals. Or facing battle hardened dynasty teams who knew how to outlast the opposition (Hawthorn '14, Richmond '20).

One of Port's major problems has been that they completely collapse when it comes to holding their shape because they don't trust that their teammates are going to win the ball. So when the ball invariably spills outside of the stoppage if they don't take it cleanly, they've got no one to pick up the loose/ground ball. We were dead last for ground ball gets and I think second last for loose ball gets in the first half of the season. It's one of the reasons why Joel Selwood said that the Port players don't know what the others are doing and there is no connection between the players when he reviewed them during the bye rounds.

According to Champion Data, loose ball gets make up 80% of contested possessions.

Now, they've worked on this quite a bit - while we are currently still in bottom 5 for both loose ball gets and ground ball gets across the season, in the last 5 matches, Port is third in the competition for ground ball gets (behind Western Bulldogs and Geelong) and second in the competition for loose ball gets (behind Western Bulldogs), while still being 4th for centre clearances (behind Essendon, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs) and 1st for stoppage clearances.

No matter what you attribute for this turnaround (players finally getting it, coaches changing structure, a combination of both), no one can doubt that the Port Adelaide coaching staff has managed to turn it around after the Brisbane abomination.

Interestingly enough, both Port and the Bulldogs have played Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne in those 5 weeks, so the statistics can be correlated between both sides as best as possible.

Port can absolutely win a premiership this year. They aren't the best team in it, but neither was Hawthorn in 2008, Sydney in 2012, the Bulldogs in 2016 or Richmond in 2017. You just need to be the best team in it on the day.

As for Houston - no one thought Richmond could win the flag without Rance in 2019, and they did.

 

[Back One Out]

It's not the Ken Hinkley Football Club. Supporters want hope for the future.

Port Adelaide are 2nd on the ladder. They're in the box seat for two home finals. They're every chance to play in their 3rd Prelim Final in 5 years. They are third favourites behind the Sydney teams to win the premiership: paying $6.00 with Sportsbet. Basically a 20% chance to win it all.

Why can't you get behind your team and enjoy the ride? What's the flipping point of telling yourself you're a Port fan and being so defeatist? Let's say Port defies the odds (80% against) and seizes upon their 20% chance of winning the flag... How would you be able to enjoy it after death-riding Hinkley and your own team for this long? You will feel like fraud. You are a fraud. You're not a real supporter. Real supporters get behind their team. They're the so-called "happy clappers" that the twisted folks on the toxic Port board are so disparaging towards.

You say you want "hope for the future" ??? What are ya? A clown or something ? We are heading into the last Home & Away round and you guys are 2ND ON THE LADDER!!! Jesus H. Christ... There are supporters of 10 or 12 other clubs who would kill to be in Port's shoes right now.

What the hell do you think is going to happen anyway with a different coach if & when Kenny steps aside? Do you honestly think a new coach is going to match Ken's effort of coaching the team into the Top Four every year? Do you really think a new coach is going to wave his magic wand and win the premiership that Kenny couldn't?

Geez, I'm going to laugh my arse off watching Port slide out of contention and into mediocrity after Hinkley moves on.

 

[simba_]

Port Adelaide are 2nd on the ladder. They're in the box seat for two home finals. They're every chance to play in their 3rd Prelim Final in 5 years. They are third favourites behind the Sydney teams to win the premiership: paying $6.00 with Sportsbet. Basically a 20% chance to win it all.

Why can't you get behind your team and enjoy the ride? What's the flipping point of telling yourself you're a Port fan and being so defeatist? Let's say Port defies the odds (80% against) and seizes upon their 20% chance of winning the flag... How would you be able to enjoy it after death-riding Hinkley and your own team for this long? You will feel like fraud. You are a fraud. You're not a real supporter. Real supporters get behind their team. They're the so-called "happy clappers" that the twisted folks on the toxic Port board are so disparaging towards.

You say you want "hope for the future" ??? What are ya? A clown or something ? We are heading into the last Home & Away round and you guys are 2ND ON THE LADDER!!! Jesus H. Christ... There are supporters of 10 or 12 other clubs who would kill to be in Port's shoes right now.

What the hell do you think is going to happen anyway with a different coach if & when Kenny steps aside? Do you honestly think a new coach is going to match Ken's effort of coaching the team into the Top Four every year? Do you really think a new coach is going to wave his magic wand and win the premiership that Kenny couldn't?

Geez, I'm going to laugh my arse off watching Port slide out of contention and into mediocrity after Hinkley moves on.

you already made this exact post 2 months ago

 

[Back One Out]

you already made this exact post 2 months ago

No. I didn't. With this new post, I have pointed out that Port are 2nd on the 2024 ladder with one round remaining. I posted their latest betting odds: $6.00 to win the flag. I also said that translates to a 20% chance according to the bookies and punters.

I have never posted any of that before... This is new territory. But yeah, you are right: my over-arching message remains the same... So what? Who the hell are you anyway to have a crack at me for repeating myself. All you Port nuffs have been posting the same negative drivel for YEARS!!! I'm just responding to that... and I will continue to do so.

What makes you think it's okay to repeat the same anti-Hinkley drivel over and over, but it's not okay for anyone else to hold the line and respond with similar pro-Hinkley posts?

I am just genuinely gobsmacked by the Port "fanbase" here on Big Footy and their inability to get behind their perennial top 4 team. It amazes me. It's like a weird cult you've got going. Collective brainwashing. But instead of getting behind the Leader, you are all against him. It's one of the most bizarre things I've witnessed here on Big Footy.

 

[Cam Payne]

Should have sacked him mid season. Now they only have the window between Port winning a prelim and the GF to sack him.