Can Port win a premiership under Ken Hinkley?

[Mr Meow]

One of Port's major problems has been that they completely collapse when it comes to holding their shape because they don't trust that their teammates are going to win the ball. So when the ball invariably spills outside of the stoppage if they don't take it cleanly, they've got no one to pick up the loose/ground ball. We were dead last for ground ball gets and I think second last for loose ball gets in the first half of the season. It's one of the reasons why Joel Selwood said that the Port players don't know what the others are doing and there is no connection between the players when he reviewed them during the bye rounds.

According to Champion Data, loose ball gets make up 80% of contested possessions.

Now, they've worked on this quite a bit - while we are currently still in bottom 5 for both loose ball gets and ground ball gets across the season, in the last 5 matches, Port is third in the competition for ground ball gets (behind Western Bulldogs and Geelong) and second in the competition for loose ball gets (behind Western Bulldogs), while still being 4th for centre clearances (behind Essendon, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs) and 1st for stoppage clearances.

No matter what you attribute for this turnaround (players finally getting it, coaches changing structure, a combination of both), no one can doubt that the Port Adelaide coaching staff has managed to turn it around after the Brisbane abomination.

Interestingly enough, both Port and the Bulldogs have played Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne in those 5 weeks, so the statistics can be correlated between both sides as best as possible.

Port can absolutely win a premiership this year. They aren't the best team in it, but neither was Hawthorn in 2008, Sydney in 2012, the Bulldogs in 2016 or Richmond in 2017. You just need to be the best team in it on the day.

As for Houston - no one thought Richmond could win the flag without Rance in 2019, and they did.

I appreciate the well thought out response. Cheers, useful insights.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Hey Back One Out if Port win the flag this year I'm going to enjoy it as much as anyone and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it x

 

[Soggy2112]

& the vast majority of coaches never coach a premiership, or a decade of regular top 4 finishes

a lot of neutrals find the hate-boner for Ken completely irrational. Ask an Essendon fan how they would feel about having the decade of footy Port has had? Even if tomorrow Ken was to quit, he would leave the club / list in a very healthy shape

The thing is you can’t assume the good times will last.

For us, from 2001-17 we made 12 of 17 finals series, made 5 prelims and made a grand final. Now we’re in the shit and it might be a while before we’re back to that and despite some good times, ultimately have nothing to show for it. The tenures of Craig, Sanderson and Pyke are kind of ones of missed opportunities.

You can’t just assume that when Hinkley moves on things will be good or that they’ll remain so for as long as he stays. That is both an argument for him (grass isn’t always greener), and one against him (he’s wasting the opportunities they have).

 

[RCAB]

Hey Back One Out if Port win the flag this year I'm going to enjoy it as much as anyone and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it x

No you're not

 

[Back One Out]

Hey Back One Out if Port win the flag this year I'm going to enjoy it as much as anyone and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it x

Port can't win the flag because Hinkley can't coach...

To win premierships, footy clubs need everyone pulling in the same direction.
The toxic fickle Port fans do all the one-percenters which prevent their club from scaling the mountaintop.

Just know that when the Port players fall short by a kick or two, it will be partly your fault.

 

[Taper]

Will lose to Giants or Cats week one and then get done by the Lions the week after.

Thread irrelevant

I heard people saying similar things in 2004.
No one gave Port a chance that year, everyone just assumed they'd choke like they'd done in previous years.

Hinkley wearing a suit and tie on grand final day is an absolute must.
No coach has worn a suit and tie on grand final day since Mark Williams.

 

[RCAB]

Port can't win the flag because Hinkley can't coach...

To win premierships, footy clubs need everyone pulling in the same direction.
The toxic fickle Port fans do all the one-percenters which prevent their club from scaling the mountaintop.

Just know that when the Port players fall short by a kick or two, it will be partly your fault.

Coach win percentage last 5 years:

Fagan 68.1%
Hinkley 67.6%
McCrae 67.1%
Scott 65.5%
Goodwin 63.4%

 

[simba_]

Rub One Out, you didn't even reply to me last time when you were trying to say finishing 3rd is something and Essendon have achieved a lot in 38 years without a flag and all this rubbish:

Can Port win a premiership under Ken Hinkley?

If you can’t even enjoy watching your team win games of footy, then what’s the point? Most happy clappers do enjoy their wins all be it against weaker teams. The point of most Port fans here on BF is our inability to compete against premiership contending teams or games of significance...

www.bigfooty.com

like i said, you guys have won four flags since 2000, the other years were failures - that's how I see it. but you disagree - so can you tell me which of those non-flag years were successful seasons and why?

 

[RCAB]

Rub One Out, you didn't even reply to me last time when you were trying to say finishing 3rd is something and Essendon have achieved a lot in 38 years without a flag and all this rubbish:

Can Port win a premiership under Ken Hinkley?

If you can’t even enjoy watching your team win games of footy, then what’s the point? Most happy clappers do enjoy their wins all be it against weaker teams. The point of most Port fans here on BF is our inability to compete against premiership contending teams or games of significance...

www.bigfooty.com

like i said, you guys have won four flags since 2000, the other years were failures - that's how I see it. but you disagree - so can you tell me which of those non-flag years were successful seasons and why?

2007 was a very successful season. It really ushered to us and the competition that this could be potentially dynasty team, despite getting sanctimoniously kicked out of the finals by North in the second week.

2010-11 were successful seasons, despite the claims we were a Bradbury team, that gathered also the "chockers" tag.

Our game plan improved immensely in 2010, and it took a while to adjust, we went 1-6 at the start of the season, and then we made finals. Maybe we were too tired when we played our first final since the 08 Grand Final in Perth against Freo, but overall it was a successful season. We felt optimistic about 2011.

In 2011 we finished third, and if it wasn't poor umpiring in the prelim, were probably play in the Grand Final against Geelong again, and who knows, we may have beat them again.

In 2012, we obviously finished on top as the best team. We finally did "choke" in the Grand Final. In any case we were up, and we were pretty close to winning. So while it was most frustrating year I can remember, it didn't take away the fact we had been best team all year. And at this stage Clarkson's record in finals was pretty shit.

Either way, whether we won or not, I enjoyed going to the football to watch Rioli play for example, and this was just as important as anything else.

 

[sobrave]

Coach win percentage last 5 years:

Fagan 68.1%
Hinkley 67.6%
McCrae 67.1%
Scott 65.5%
Goodwin 63.4%

Fagan - 1GF
McRae 1 GF 1 flag
Scott 2 GF 1 flag
Goodwin 1 GF 1 flag

Hinkley - donuts

 

[RCAB]

Fagan - 1GF
McRae 1 GF 1 flag
Scott 2 GF 1 flag
Goodwin 1 GF 1 flag

Hinkley - donuts

Fagan has donuts as well or do you consider making a Grand Final an achievement?

 

[Duck Farmer]

Fagan has donuts as well or do you consider making a Grand Final an achievement?

It's an achievement for Hinkley considering he's smashed the world record for AFL games coached without making a GF.

 

[Freomaniac]

We made the finals once in 2015-2019, but even twice doesn't make the results during that time okay. Three times also wouldn't make them okay.

You know you get into the finals for finishing 8th, right? It's not an achievement.

Thats why your side and my side is different.

For me its an achievement for getting finals or getting that 8th and last finals spot.

Put it this way.... Regardless if Freo makes finals in 2024, The cold hard fact still remains that in Freos 30 year history from 1995-2024, the dockers had only one period of sustained finals or made finals for at least 2 years in a row and that was 2012-15 era under Ross Lyon as coach.

At least with Port, They made finals for at least 2 years in a row in 2001-15, 2013-4 and 2020-21.

Crows have had sustained finals runs in 1997-8, 2001-3, 2005-9 and 2015-7.


Again, the lack of flag doesnt hurt me personally. Its the lack of sustained finals over a 30 year period hurts.

As for the next 30 years from 2025-2054 is anything to go by, I dont care if Freo makes finals in 10 of the next 30 years as long as there is a 2 or 3 year run of finals in between a 4 or 5 or 6 year rebuild of not making finals.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

What were the correct hypothetical set ups in the losing finals, and in what specific ways was Hinkley outcoached by his opposition in those games?

Very capable players not meeting their standards in critical moments (enter "it's Hinkley's job to make them play as they usually do! He said finals are SCARY!!!") looked like the cause of loss for at least a few of those finals. Or facing battle hardened dynasty teams who knew how to outlast the opposition (Hawthorn '14, Richmond '20).

Starting Willem Drew on the bench whilst Libba went wild after Willem had blanketed him in the previous encounter is one obvious one of many.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Freomaniac]

The 2018 list, as an example, finished 10th. Should it have done any better?

FB: Bonner Howard Clurey
HB: Pittard Hombsch Byrne-Jones
C: Houston R.Gray Polec
HF: Wingard Westhoff Powell-Pepper
FF: Watts Dixon Ebert
FOL: Ryder Wines Boak
IC: Rockliff Motlop S.Gray Jonas

Only 3 players (Gray with 42, Wines with 38, Wingard with 36) exceeded 30 coaches votes that season.

I think a lot of Port supporters have consistently overrated their lists. Even the one that finished 3rd in 2020 was not amazing. They were still the team that pushed the dynasty Tigers all the way.

I remember Ports 2018 season. They should of At least made finals.

Port Were top 4 with 7 games left with 11 wins and 4 losses. They then faced the dockers in Perth. Dockers beat Port 8.11.59 to Ports 7.8.50. That started the collapse. Gws Beat them next week by 42 points. Port belted the dogs then Port lost the last 4 games of the season to post a 10th placed finish with 12 wins and 10 losses.

After that dogs game, they lost to Crows by 3, eagles by 4, magpies by 51 and essendon by 22 points.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

No. I didn't. With this new post, I have pointed out that Port are 2nd on the 2024 ladder with one round remaining. I posted their latest betting odds: $6.00 to win the flag. I also said that translates to a 20% chance according to the bookies and punters.

I have never posted any of that before... This is new territory. But yeah, you are right: my over-arching message remains the same... So what? Who the hell are you anyway to have a crack at me for repeating myself. All you Port nuffs have been posting the same negative drivel for YEARS!!! I'm just responding to that... and I will continue to do so.

What makes you think it's okay to repeat the same anti-Hinkley drivel over and over, but it's not okay for anyone else to hold the line and respond with similar pro-Hinkley posts?

I am just genuinely gobsmacked by the Port "fanbase" here on Big Footy and their inability to get behind their perennial top 4 team. It amazes me. It's like a weird cult you've got going. Collective brainwashing. But instead of getting behind the Leader, you are all against him. It's one of the most bizarre things I've witnessed here on Big Footy.

You're repeating yourself.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Freomaniac]

Port have won 60% of their games under Hinkley and finished top 4 in four of the last five years, along with winning a minimum of 10 games every year during Hinkley's tenure.

List of clubs that have been in finals contention every year since Hinkley arrived,

• Geelong
• Port Adelaide

Sydney are next best, having been in finals contention for 10 out of the last 12 seasons.

2016 and 2022 are the only years where Port lost more games than they won.
2019 was the one year where they won 50% of their games.
Every other year of Hinkley's tenure has seen Port win more games than they've lost.

When you take into consideration just how bad Port were when Hinkley arrived, having won just eight games in the 2011-2012 seasons - then it's fair to say his legacy at Port will be a good one.

However, it goes without saying that Port need to win a flag under Hinkley for his legacy to be remembered as great.

Again... thats not a bad record.

Average by Port Standards.

If He was at the dockers, I would be happy with the amount of finals the dockers have been in from 2013 to 2024.

 

[Rich01]

Top 2 finish in the book.
Two home finals.
And the likelihood that the Grand Final will be played against another non-vic team.

They couldn’t possibly drop the cup from here could they?

 

[Freomaniac]

& the vast majority of coaches never coach a premiership, or a decade of regular top 4 finishes

a lot of neutrals find the hate-boner for Ken completely irrational. Ask an Essendon fan how they would feel about having the decade of footy Port has had? Even if tomorrow Ken was to quit, he would leave the club / list in a very healthy shape

I look at Ken Hinkleys finals record at Port...


2013: elim final win and a semi final loss. that 1 win and 1 loss there.

2014: elim final win, semi final win, prelim final loss, 2 wins and 1 loss. finals record so far is 3 wins and 2 defeats.

2017: elim final loss. 1 finals loss, 3 wins and 3 losses in total.

2020: top 4 but Qualifying final win prelim final loss. 1 win and 1 loss in the 2020 finals series. 4 wins and 4 loss finals record so far.

2021: top 4 again, qualifying final win and prelim final loss. 1 win and 1 loss again. 5 finals wins and 5 finals losses so far.

2023: top 4. Lost qualifying final, loss the home semi final. 0 wins and 2 losses. 5 finals wins and 7 finals losses.

To be brutally honest here.... Its not great finals record, but its not bad or terrible either in an era of 8 finals spots and 18 AFL clubs.

If Justin Longmuir Achieves that at Freo, I would enjoy and savour every final to be honest.

If Longmuir was sacked at the end of this season and Ken Hinkley was hired as freos next coach for 10-12 years and achieves similar finals results at freo Just like he did at Port from 2013-24, I would take it.

 

[Freomaniac]

Happy to play the numbers game.

Hinkley has won 61% of his games. (in theory all things being equal it should be 50%). This is overs

He has made 3 Preliminary Finals in 11 years (27% of the time). You should make a prelim 4/18 of the time which is 22%, so this is overs too.

You should make a Grand Final 1/9 (11% of the time) and he hasn't made one in 11years, BUT two of those Preliminary Final were lost by less than a goal. If he had won those two narrow Preliminary Finals he wouldn't be a better coach. He'd still be the same coach with the same ability. But he would have been a luckier coach.

I've said it before.... the human brain of most people doesn't understand numbers. They think teams that don't win premierships are "underachieving" when in reality only one team can win it. I heard one lunatic a few weeks ago claim that if Sydney, Port or Brisbane don't win the premiership all three of them would have underachieved and Fagan and Hinkley should be sacked in that circumstance.

That total ignorance of the reality of numbers (1 out of 18) is mindboggling in the AFL world.

I am Happy to play the number game too.

As you said, Ken Hinkley has made 3 prelim finals in 11 seasons. (2014, 2020 and 2021).

I am a dockers fan. From 1995 to 2024, dockers only made 3 prelim finals in 30 years. (2006, 2013 and 2015).

Saying that, I agree with your mindset about the AFL mentality or Australian Sports mindset in General. If you dont win the grand final, you are a loser and mediocre, even if your side loses by 15 points and you had 4 or 5 or 6 of your best 23 out with injuries and lost to the undisputed best side of the season that lost only 2 or 3 games all season.

 

[Freomaniac]

Hey Back One Out if Port win the flag this year I'm going to enjoy it as much as anyone and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it x

I am gonna do a massive $100 bet on Port for the flag.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I look at Ken Hinkleys finals record at Port...


2013: elim final win and a semi final loss. that 1 win and 1 loss there.

2014: elim final win, semi final win, prelim final loss, 2 wins and 1 loss. finals record so far is 3 wins and 2 defeats.

2017: elim final loss. 1 finals loss, 3 wins and 3 losses in total.

2020: top 4 but Qualifying final win prelim final loss. 1 win and 1 loss in the 2020 finals series. 4 wins and 4 loss finals record so far.

2021: top 4 again, qualifying final win and prelim final loss. 1 win and 1 loss again. 5 finals wins and 5 finals losses so far.

2023: top 4. Lost qualifying final, loss the home semi final. 0 wins and 2 losses. 5 finals wins and 7 finals losses.

To be brutally honest here.... Its not great finals record, but its not bad or terrible either in an era of 8 finals spots and 18 AFL clubs.

If Justin Longmuir Achieves that at Freo, I would enjoy and savour every final to be honest.

If Longmuir was sacked at the end of this season and Ken Hinkley was hired as freos next coach for 10-12 years and achieves similar finals results at freo Just like he did at Port from 2013-24, I would take it.

How many times and in how many threads are you going to post this repetitive loser garbage? Nobody respects your opinion.

 

[Janus]

I remember Ports 2018 season. They should of At least made finals.

Port Were top 4 with 7 games left with 11 wins and 4 losses. They then faced the dockers in Perth. Dockers beat Port 8.11.59 to Ports 7.8.50. That started the collapse. Gws Beat them next week by 42 points. Port belted the dogs then Port lost the last 4 games of the season to post a 10th placed finish with 12 wins and 10 losses.

After that dogs game, they lost to Crows by 3, eagles by 4, magpies by 51 and essendon by 22 points.

The Adelaide game was when Josh Jenkins blatantly hit the post (which he admitted after the game) and at the time, goal reviews were solely the responsibility of an umpire at the ground. While the AFL ratified the decision, it was one of the catalysts for reviewing every single goal in a neutral venue and bringing in things like Edge, super slow motion etc. (ARC was introduced in the 2019 finals series).

The following week, Port Adelaide were up by 30+ (9 goals to 4) when Patrick Ryder was subbed out of the game with a hip complaint 15 minutes into the third quarter. Then a hospital ball by Chad Wingard in time on resulted in a broken leg to Charlie Dixon and an injury to Dan Houston, which allowed Jeremy McGovern to play forward and kick the winning goal.

Of course, if Port doesn't lose those games and miss finals, they don't have the draft capital to get Zak Butters, so I think it evened out in the end.

 

[Drunk_off_R0zee]

Top 2 finish in the book.
Two home finals.
And the likelihood that the Grand Final will be played against another non-vic team.

They couldn’t possibly drop the cup from here could they?

Top 2 hardly in the book, still need to beat freo if GWS beat dogs. Also who’s to say Geelong can’t win by 90+ on Saturday?

 

[Rich01]

Top 2 hardly in the book, still need to beat freo if GWS beat dogs. Also who’s to say Geelong can’t win by 90+ on Saturday?

Should be in the book.
Destiny is in the clubs hands.
They are in the best position right now since their last flag to win another.

If not now, then when, really.