List Mgmt. Carlton's 2020 Draft Thread

[Wickzki]

No, he says they wanted him but wanted Setterfield more.

Does the #1 pick still get a $10k portfolio of sorts? That might make a difference.

Exactly. There's a difference in pick 1 and 2 compared to 5 and 6.

They do. Furthermore, the bonus money that the top 20 draftees get for playing senior games has been removed so that $10k is arguably worth more now than it was previously.

AFL top 20 draft picks to lose bonuses for playing senior games

The first 20 players drafted at next Wednesday's AFL national draft will earn $90,000 base pay next season and no longer receive incentive payments for playing senior games.

www.smh.com.au

Under the original CBA developed before the pandemic, the top 20 picks were slated in 2021 to receive $100,000 plus incentive payments up to a maximum of $12,000 for playing a certain number of games in their first season.

Add: Over the course of a career that $10k shouldn't mean very much but for a kid coming into the system and establishing himself it is meaningful.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

The pick isn’t tied to Geelong it’s tied to Melbourne.

Fair enough. Makes a little more sense

 

[Sector 7G]

So last year the Suns traded:

Pick 17 & 22 > Pick 11
Pick 11 (Future) > Pick 27

Now Pick 27 > Future 3rd Round pick

So they’ve traded the equivalent of Picks 17 & 22 for a 3rd Round Pick.

Joke of an organisation. Take handouts and then give gifts to the rest of the league. Can’t wait to take Rowell off them in a few years.

That is a simplistic view of things.
If the Suns rated Flanders as the 4th best player they are trading pick 17 and 22 for pick 4
If they rated Sharp as the 11th best player that's what they are trading for. also factor in the 11 will probably become the 15th best player in the draft.

The handouts do need to stop thought. If Rowell can stay on the park they will finish mid table next year

 

[Jimmae]

That is a simplistic view of things.
If the Suns rated Flanders as the 4th best player they are trading pick 17 and 22 for pick 4
If they rated Sharp as the 11th best player that's what they are trading for. also factor in the 11 will probably become the 15th best player in the draft.

The handouts do need to stop thought. If Rowell can stay on the park they will finish mid table next year

You've countered the common estimate with their extraordinarily high valuation. One's more sensible than the other, and Gold Coast have a few things to answer for, but they don't care because they're pre-listing like mad.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You've countered the common estimate with their extraordinarily high valuation. One's more sensible than the other, and Gold Coast have a few things to answer for, but they don't care because they're pre-listing like mad.

People thought the same about us and Stoker.
Flanders has a huge ceiling so I can understand that move and considering no other club was willing to deal with GC untilGeelong did so they could take Sharp probably tells us it was a fair trade.

 

[Jimmae]

People thought the same about us and Stoker.
Flanders has a huge ceiling so I can understand that move and considering no other club was willing to deal with GC untilGeelong did so they could take Sharp probably tells us it was a fair trade.

No one thought that a day later. There was just a lot of hype around the trade, and Richmond pretending they had no interest.

 

[Manhattanite]

I figure they sold their later pick first, as the earlier pick would be easier to move, potentially for a higher price.
But 2020 #27 is just not worth what it would be most years. Surely GC went for the highest bidder? Anyway, they've got 2 more future 3rd rounders for points, for trading out picks they weren't going to use.

There’s also some talk that the Suns will trade their Pick 5 on draft night for a future first rounder. I’m guessing we wouldn’t do that trade as we will need our 2021 and 2022 firsts for trades at end of 2021.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[TerryWallet]

Matt Balmer's intuitions:

McDonald: Either 1 or 2
Hollands: 1,2 or 4
Thilthorpe: 1,2 or 6-8
DGB: 3
Phillips: 4 or 6
Reid: 5
Perkins: 6-8, 11
Cox 6-8, 10

Allison: He's a Tigers man and is strongly hinting at Tiges first pick
Coleman: Pies bid
Stone: GWS, Pies or Crows
McCrae: 1st Round
Kolar: Potential 1st Round

Eddie Ford: Seems to be intimating a drop to late draft.
The Ruckmen bar Thilthorpe: Late draft/rookies

Keep in mind, late draft is 40 to 55ish this year.

 

[The Dominator7]

There’s also some talk that the Suns will trade their Pick 5 on draft night for a future first rounder. I’m guessing we wouldn’t do that trade as we will need our 2021 and 2022 firsts for trades at end of 2021.

A top 5 pick - I’d do it in a heartbeat if GC wants a swap

 

[Eiffel 65]

There’s also some talk that the Suns will trade their Pick 5 on draft night for a future first rounder. I’m guessing we wouldn’t do that trade as we will need our 2021 and 2022 firsts for trades at end of 2021.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Not necessarily. However, we would need to get a future 3rd back in somehow.

If the right player was available, it would be worth it for us.

 

[Coona Blues]

Not necessarily. However, we would need to get a future 3rd back in somehow.

If the right player was available, it would be worth it for us.

I actually believe that if Thilthorpe makes it that far, we would be all over it. Not hard to manufacture pick swaps to compensate that future 3rd. Levi coming towards the finish, Charlie future uncertain, McGov underwhelming to date.

Post Levi it is a little difficult to factor in our second ruck option unless playing both TDK and Pitto. Imagine TDK teaming with young Thilthorpe in a couple of years beside Harry and Charlie, wowsers! (Good development job for Kreuze). The stuff dynasties emanate from.

 

[Eiffel 65]

I actually believe that if Thilthorpe makes it that far, we would be all over it. Not hard to manufacture pick swaps to compensate that future 3rd. Levi coming towards the finish, Charlie future uncertain, McGov underwhelming to date.

Post Levi it is a little difficult to factor in our second ruck option unless playing both TDK and Pitto. Imagine TDK teaming with young Thilthorpe in a couple of years beside Harry and Charlie, wowsers! (Good development job for Kreuze). The stuff dynasties emanate from.

TBH, I would take Cox over Thilthorpe. There's something about Thilthorpe that reeks of bust factor. Well maybe not bust, but I don't think he's going to become a dominate key forward at the top level and there would be others ahead of him in the ruck department too.

Maybe he ends up being the best player in it, however, I could see it going the other way where you breathe a sigh of relief for dodging a bullet 4-5 years later.

Realistically, I reckon the most likely player to be available at pick 5 is Phillips and I would happily trade a future first to get him. He's got the zip to get out of congestion and very consistent. These are the sorts of guys you need to remain competitive week in week out. He won't be the best player in it, but he'll be a player any club would be very happy to have. He's like your Walsh or Rowell pick.

 

[HARKER]

Something that shows up regularly via drafts -

At the start of that draft year the players that are often considered to be best, are born in the first six months of the year.
Possible top twelve - Bruhn...Campbell...Cox...Grainger-Barras...Hollands...Jones...McDonald...Perkins...Phillips...Reid...Ugle-Hagan...are all born Jan - June.
The only outlier is Thilthorpe and that's by a whole 7 days, having a July 7 birthdate.

Tells me that there's going to be some standouts with later birth dates. That's where I'd be looking with my picks.

 

[Coona Blues]

TBH, I would take Cox over Thilthorpe. There's something about Thilthorpe that reeks of bust factor. Well maybe not bust, but I don't think he's going to become a dominate key forward at the top level and there would be others ahead of him in the ruck department too.

Maybe he ends up being the best player in it, however, I could see it going the other way where you breathe a sigh of relief for dodging a bullet 4-5 years later.

Realistically, I reckon the most likely player to be available at pick 5 is Phillips and I would happily trade a future first to get him. He's got the zip to get out of congestion and very consistent. These are the sorts of guys you need to remain competitive week in week out. He won't be the best player in it, but he'll be a player any club would be very happy to have. He's like your Walsh or Rowell pick.

I have no doubt that Phillips will be a player, just a little reluctant to add to the logjam of young mids we have. I have more faith than most that we have the necessaries on the list already.

I know it is a first rounder, but evidentially there is little not to like regarding Thilthorpe, bar his strange name. He doesn't have to be a generational key forward
or generational ruck to contribute hugely to #17 and beyond. An incremental upgrade on Levi in both roles would be spectacular. We have Harry and hopefully Charlie up forward, and TDK in the ruck, the upside of all three is enormous. Quality support all around is mouthwatering and well worth the expenditure. Would rather that than playing Pitto as a 50/50 ruck or an undersized stopgap while maxing out the pressure on TDK to ruck huge minutes. Surround them with quality, willing worker, small and medium forwards and we have an attack almost impossible to man up on.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Something that shows up regularly via drafts -

At the start of that draft year the players that are often considered to be best, are born in the first six months of the year.
Possible top twelve - Bruhn...Campbell...Cox...Grainger-Barras...Hollands...Jones...McDonald...Perkins...Phillips...Reid...Ugle-Hagan...are all born Jan - June.
The only outlier is Thilthorpe and that's by a whole 7 days, having a July 7 birthdate.

Tells me that there's going to be some standouts with later birth dates. That's where I'd be looking with my picks.

Always pick a Leo over an Aquarian.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Something that shows up regularly via drafts -

At the start of that draft year the players that are often considered to be best, are born in the first six months of the year.
Possible top twelve - Bruhn...Campbell...Cox...Grainger-Barras...Hollands...Jones...McDonald...Perkins...Phillips...Reid...Ugle-Hagan...are all born Jan - June.
The only outlier is Thilthorpe and that's by a whole 7 days, having a July 7 birthdate.

Tells me that there's going to be some standouts with later birth dates. That's where I'd be looking with my picks.

That graph pretty much says it all. You can clearly see the age groups of when the age cut off points begin.
I really wonder if there is an opportunity for the AFL to have representative sides as age and a half, say under 15 and half instead of u/15 to try and give these later birthdate kids a chance to catch up. If it kicked in when they are halfway through the development program then it may give other kids a chance to shine.

 

[Jimmae]

A top 5 pick - I’d do it in a heartbeat if GC wants a swap

Pick 5? Wow, you'll really have to pull out all the stops to prise that from their fingers.

A future 2nd, but they'll be twisting your arm

 

[The Dominator7]

Pick 5? Wow, you'll really have to pull out all the stops to prise that from their fingers.

A future 2nd, but they'll be twisting your arm

Sold

 

[Sheephead]

There’s also some talk that the Suns will trade their Pick 5 on draft night for a future first rounder. I’m guessing we wouldn’t do that trade as we will need our 2021 and 2022 firsts for trades at end of 2021.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Not the least for the fact we jump in front of Dodo and 6,7,8. Bahaha A-hole! But we could also back trade with say GWS for 10 and another 1st and get 2 quality players. At 5 though, Will Phillips would interest me more than a big. Think he is a golden prospect. If we back trade get a mid and a big, but Phillips I think will be a winner and quickly.

Waiting for Merrett or Oliver is not smart. Both will highly potentially re-sign and we will be one year further on with Crippa and co. and have a first rounder. Bird in the hand for me.

 

[Sector 7G]

You've countered the common estimate with their extraordinarily high valuation. One's more sensible than the other, and Gold Coast have a few things to answer for, but they don't care because they're pre-listing like mad.

Knightmare had Flanders at 4 and Sharp at 16 so he would have done the deal. I am not saying it is the right call just that if that's your draft board you don't worry about the value of picks you need to back yourself otherwise why have a recruiting department just get Kevin Sheehan's list out of the paper.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Please don’t get me started on the scam that is the academy system it will ruin my day.

Even when a good player like Cox comes through our area they are always not eligible hence why we gave it back.

Plz make explainings I am of interested.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Its hard to be excited about this draft with only late picks, and with no exposed Vic form..

Is there a chance Walsh brother gets to our first pick?

 

[Jeremias]

Its hard to be excited about this draft with only late picks, and with no exposed Vic form..

Is there a chance Walsh brother gets to our first pick?

There’s a chance he gets to our first pick in the rookie draft.

 

[GT619]

A top 5 pick - I’d do it in a heartbeat if GC wants a swap

Who would you target if we had 5

 

[Jimmae]

Knightmare had Flanders at 4 and Sharp at 16 so he would have done the deal. I am not saying it is the right call just that if that's your draft board you don't worry about the value of picks you need to back yourself otherwise why have a recruiting department just get Kevin Sheehan's list out of the paper.

They'd be the only two groups of people on the planet that genuinely had Flanders that high. Total underestimation of the athletic requirements of the AFL, but if you've been watching the way the Suns peter out after 4-6 games every season, that won't come as a shock.