Prediction Changes for round 5 v Freo

[DelRe]

No not quite, but it's a good question.

Freo is stacked with inexperienced players like us. They too have 5 who have yet to play 10 games and they only total 14 between them! (ours total 18)

Freo vs WB:
Games Played: 1743 - 1256
Avg Games: 79.2 - 57.1
Median: 46.0 - 45.5

Avg age: 24.4 - 23.3
Median age: 23.9 - 22.3

In terms of games played they are pretty much on a par with us for their 13 least experienced players but their top nine are way more experienced than ours. Take out Sandilands and Mundy and it would be a good deal closer (more like us, having Morris and Picken out).

View attachment 485510

Sorry I was being cheeky - Freo formed in 1995 would be close to 23.3 years old as well.

 

[dergert]

Hope it doesn't rain

 

[dogwatch]

Sorry I was being cheeky - Freo formed in 1995 would be close to 23.3 years old as well.

Haha, that thought crossed my mind but when I had a quick look I was surprised how few games some of Freo's players have played, so it was worth doing!

Helps with perspective too. We talk about how ridiculously young and inexperienced we are every week but Freo's not that different in the bottom half.

 

[trophies]

Is there a bulldogs venue pre game to meet up?

If not, are there any pubs near to the ground that are halfway decent?

Looking forward to seeing the stadium. So glad never to go back to Subiaco.

Huge pub at the venue for before and afters, and then the casino just down the road...

 

[_M_16_]

who played on Kennedy last week? was he tagged - had a shocker.

He has struggled all season to date, so probably not because he was tagged out

 

[DelRe]

Haha, that thought crossed my mind but when I had a quick look I was surprised how few games some of Freo's players have played, so it was worth doing!

Helps with perspective too. We talk about how ridiculously young and inexperienced we are every week but Freo's not that different in the bottom half.

I find the charts you show though quite effective in showing the differences. Agree too in some cases it’s only really marginal the difference in experience between clubs and can be distorted by one or two senior players missing. That form of chart does neatly show where the difference is though and how having a Morris and/or Picken level experience could be very handy.

 

[footyfan000001]

Huge game. If we apply the pressure we have the last fortnight we’re a huge chance. These games we need to win now. Going 1-4 makes it tough.

 

[DognBones]

Any word on why Trengove not playing in either team? Failed a fitness test second week in a row?

 

[Allan Shorty]

No organised event for pre game.
There is a function on the Friday night at the Inglewood Hotel.

Thank you.

 

[immortalmike]

Disappointed that Williams is out. Also annoyed that Biggs has been dropped after just one week. Shitty for his confidence.

Happy to see Tommy in. Hope he smashes it for both the team and himself.

Quick aside though, if Redpath is actually injured please disregard. However if he is being rested just two weeks after serving a suspension and only five weeks into the season then he might as well retire.

Also those lamenting the selection of Honeychurch might be best served looking at what he can do rather than what he can't do. Smart at defensive positioning and tough as nails, a much needed presence without Libba and Picken.

 

[DogDays]

Disappointed that Williams is out. Also annoyed that Biggs has been dropped after just one week. Shitty for his confidence.

Happy to see Tommy in. Hope he smashes it for both the team and himself.

Quick aside though, if Redpath is actually injured please disregard. However if he is being rested just two weeks after serving a suspension and only five weeks into the season then he might as well retire.

Also those lamenting the selection of Honeychurch might be best served looking at what he can do rather than what he can't do. Smart at defensive positioning and tough as nails, a much needed presence without Libba and Picken.

Like this post... I don’t get the love for Webb, he has done zero at Senior level to justify people’s enthusiasm. Having said that 1 game in, 1 game out isn’t helpful to get a gauge of his ability.


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[Tommycash]

Richards? He's a good ball user.

I'm sure he will become a very safe pair of boots in time, but I would be shocked if I am the only person who gets nervous when he has ball in hand at the moment.

He averages 2.3 clangers and 3.3 turnovers a game with a disposal efficiency of 63.4%. All in all not great stats for a player who will more often than not concede a goal when he turns it over given his position.

Don't get me wrong, the kid is a gun and he will be very good for us. At the moment though his decision making is not always there when disposing of the footy.

Good god, as an aside, I just discovered the player with the highest disposal efficiency in the league in 2017 for a player with more than 5 games was in fact a Bulldog. Guess who.

Fletcher Roberts with 90.5% over 10 games. Unexpected.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Disappointed that Williams is out. Also annoyed that Biggs has been dropped after just one week. Shitty for his confidence.

Happy to see Tommy in. Hope he smashes it for both the team and himself.

Quick aside though, if Redpath is actually injured please disregard. However if he is being rested just two weeks after serving a suspension and only five weeks into the season then he might as well retire.

Also those lamenting the selection of Honeychurch might be best served looking at what he can do rather than what he can't do. Smart at defensive positioning and tough as nails, a much needed presence without Libba and Picken.

Redpath I believe has knee soreness. He’s had a fair bit of damage done to his knees over the years. Sounds like he’s struggling. As much as I love his effort and attack on the ball, Boyd in form is a much better option.

Agree re Honey. Couldn’t really drop him in recent efforts. Don’t see him as a long term player but he’s physically mature now and follows the plan. If he does well and another club shows interest he might help us get the points required for West to allow us to keep our first pick.

 

[adam10]

Seen Redpath walking awkwardly at stages the last two weeks. Concerning...

Really excited to see how this young team travels, going to be an extremely difficult game if we don't bring the intensity of the last two weeks. Huge game for Tom Boyd... his going to come up against one of the in form defenders in the league in Alex Pearce, will ruck a lot against Sandi as well. Big test back in the big time. Interested Biggs didn't keep his spot even after Williams was out. Surely means Webb will be given the role as the 7th defender. Huge opportunity.

As mentioned before Hunter, Redpath and Williams to come back into this side so any below par performances and you're out next week.

Wood Cordy Richards
JJ Naughton Suckling
Mclean Wallis Lipinski
Dalhaus Dunkley Dale
Dickson Boyd Gowers

English, Bont, Macrae

Webb, Jong, Honeychurch, Daniel

I'd give Honeychurch a run with role on Neale.

 

[Testekill]

Should have just chucked in Fergus Greene for him

I think Greene is still under an injury cloud.

 

[Easty]

He averages 2.3 clangers and 3.3 turnovers a game with a disposal efficiency of 63.4%. All in all not great stats for a player who will more often than not concede a goal when he turns it over given his position.

My one worry about Ed is that I'm not sure he's a brilliant decision maker. Seems to pick the wrong option a bit.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I'm sure he will become a very safe pair of boots in time, but I would be shocked if I am the only person who gets nervous when he has ball in hand at the moment.

He averages 2.3 clangers and 3.3 turnovers a game with a disposal efficiency of 63.4%. All in all not great stats for a player who will more often than not concede a goal when he turns it over given his position.

Don't get me wrong, the kid is a gun and he will be very good for us. At the moment though his decision making is not always there when disposing of the footy.

Good god, as an aside, I just discovered the player with the highest disposal efficiency in the league in 2017 for a player with more than 5 games was in fact a Bulldog. Guess who.

Fletcher Roberts with 90.5% over 10 games. Unexpected.

Yeah defenders always get high DE because they get safe kicks off in defence under little pressure. They stat's not a great one. I'd say Richards' is lower because he attempts more risky kicks in board rather than safer options, which I'm happy he does tbh.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Redpath I believe has knee soreness. He’s had a fair bit of damage done to his knees over the years. Sounds like he’s struggling. As much as I love his effort and attack on the ball, Boyd in form is a much better option.

Agree re Honey. Couldn’t really drop him in recent efforts. Don’t see him as a long term player but he’s physically mature now and follows the plan. If he does well and another club shows interest he might help us get the points required for West to allow us to keep our first pick.

It doesn't matter how many later picks we have. If the bid comes before our first we use it, if after we've already used it on someone else. It's all about where the bid comes.

 

[Next Waiting]

He averages 2.3 clangers and 3.3 turnovers a game with a disposal efficiency of 63.4%. All in all not great stats for a player who will more often than not concede a goal when he turns it over given his position.

Don't get me wrong, the kid is a gun and he will be very good for us. At the moment though his decision making is not always there when disposing of the footy.

My one worry about Ed is that I'm not sure he's a brilliant decision maker. Seems to pick the wrong option a bit.

I wonder whether a big part of this isn't to do with adjusting to the pace of an AFL game when he's straight out of TAC level. Options that you think are there at senior level and would be there at junior level actually aren't there for as long or even at all at senior level. They are closed off very quickly or traps laid for young players. Might be a combination of the option not being there and not recognising (yet) that it isn't there or being too slow to take it at senior level speed and intensity. Like yourselves, I'd be confident time and experience at this level will fix it.

 

[Tommycash]

Yeah defenders always get high DE because they get safe kicks off in defence under little pressure. They stat's not a great one. I'd say Richards' is lower because he attempts more risky kicks in board rather than safer options, which I'm happy he does tbh.

Definitely, definitely. In time I think he will eventually be a great user of the football.

A good example of daring play was Gowers going into the corridor at one point last week. We got the ball and exposed them, went forward and scored a goal. A quarter or so later the same kind of kick from Gowers was intercepted and led to a Sydney counter-attack, if not a goal. We want players to take on those kicks now and hopefully learn when to take them on and when to go a safer option, something players with a handful of AFL games are unlikely to be able to get right every time.

It is hard to assess the impact it has on a game really, because a risky kick that results in a goal may not stand out as much as a turn over that results in a goal. While it might seem like the turn over goals cost us the game, if you were to take out the types of kicks we turned the ball over on, would that mean we would be impotent going forward?

That said I still stand by the fact that last week all of Biggs, Naughton and Richards made me worried when they were launching the ball out of defence. The kids decision making is not yet at the level where there riskier kicks will come off every time, and a lot of the time their safer kicks don't quiet hit the target. That's not to say they shouldn't be in the team or should be told to play it safe, but it is to acknowledge there is likely to be some short term pain before the long term gain (in the case of Richards and Naughton at least).

 

[dogwatch]

I'm sure he will become a very safe pair of boots in time, but I would be shocked if I am the only person who gets nervous when he has ball in hand at the moment.
...

Only a little bit nervous. I'm mostly excited because he does take the risky option at times. IMO 80% of footballers take the safe option (down the line to a contest) but most of them end up being pretty bland ... useful foot soldiers but seldom game breakers. What a player like Richards does is create opportunities to break the lines which result in scoring opportunity before the opposition can re-organise itself. At the moment he is limiting these plays almost exclusively to short passes and they mostly hit the target. If they go wrong I think it's more about a poor choice rather than execution. In time he will build enough experience and confidence to go longer with these kicks (and his coaches will give him licence to do so). Then he'll be more like Bob Murphy coming off half-back.

You don't have to be silky smooth to settle the fans nerves though. Obviously it's great to have players like Bont with the ball in hand, but one player I've always felt comfortable with is Picken. We think of him as a tough tagger and tackler, an occasional high flyer and goalsneak but his decision making is nearly always sound. High footy IQ. We miss that right now.

I wonder whether a big part of this isn't to do with adjusting to the pace of an AFL game when he's straight out of TAC level. Options that you think are there at senior level and would be there at junior level actually aren't there for as long or even at all at senior level. They are closed off very quickly or traps laid for young players. Might be a combination of the option not being there and not recognising (yet) that it isn't there or being too slow to take it at senior level speed and intensity. Like yourselves, I'd be confident time and experience at this level will fix it.

This.
He can contribute right now and doesn't need a spell in the twos. I'm expecting to see noticeable signs of development almost on a weekly basis.
His re-signing after week 4 is no routine administrative act. The club obviously sees him as we do - a future gun!

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Disappointed that Williams is out. Also annoyed that Biggs has been dropped after just one week. Shitty for his confidence.

Happy to see Tommy in. Hope he smashes it for both the team and himself.

Quick aside though, if Redpath is actually injured please disregard. However if he is being rested just two weeks after serving a suspension and only five weeks into the season then he might as well retire.

Also those lamenting the selection of Honeychurch might be best served looking at what he can do rather than what he can't do. Smart at defensive positioning and tough as nails, a much needed presence without Libba and Picken.

I think Redpath looked very proppy in both games and clearly wasnt fit. He was probably rushed back to have at least 1 tall forward in the team and is now going to be given time to get right

 

[Golden_6]

Williams has an ear infection and the club didn’t want to fly him, straight in next week. Porter is the travelling emergency. He won’t play but it’s a good opportunity to give him a week off and the experience of travelling with the team.

 

[immortalmike]

I think Redpath looked very proppy in both games and clearly wasnt fit. He was probably rushed back to have at least 1 tall forward in the team and is now going to be given time to get right

Rushed back from what?

Redpath I believe has knee soreness. He’s had a fair bit of damage done to his knees over the years. Sounds like he’s struggling. As much as I love his effort and attack on the ball, Boyd in form is a much better option.

Agree re Honey. Couldn’t really drop him in recent efforts. Don’t see him as a long term player but he’s physically mature now and follows the plan. If he does well and another club shows interest he might help us get the points required for West to allow us to keep our first pick.

Agree on Boyd being a much better option. Redpath tries hard but doesn't offer enough much beyond a predictable target.

Also agree that Honey probably isn't a great long term option. And most likely he wouldn't be playing if Picken was.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Rushed back from what?

I assume from some knee injury that was communicated in the usual crystal clear way