Unofficial Preview Changes & Pre-match Discussion - Qualifying Final vs. Geelong, Sat 03/09, 4:35pm MCG

[No SPIN]

Yeah, you're not wrong. It's impossible to predict

Not for Geel - their aging list would hate the idea of playing 4 in a row if they lose in the first week.

 

[Jafo]

Pablo barracks for us dude.

Bahaha. Sorry pablo disco bar. Somehow saw your Avatar and deciphered it as Geelong border.

Now that I’ve been set straight, yeah I hope we Smash the Cats.

Owe them for 2011 at minimal.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Because if a top 4 team wins the first final they have another week off. Can be very disruptive.

Yep, this. The prospect of 1 game in 3 weeks is seen as a disadvantage apparently rather than a reward commensurate with finishing top 4.

 

[Quicky]

I had a look at cats games stats.

Over the season Cats rankings:

*1st turnovers (as in they have least turnovers)
*12th in Contested possession
*7th in clearances
*1st in marks ins50
*4th in marks
*1st ins50
*16th in tackles ins fwd 50
*9th in clangers
*9th disposal efficiency
*6th intercepts
*18th in rebound 50s

So overall, obviously, the Cats are extremely efficient and don’t need to rely on tackles ins fwd 50 as they hit targets and mark.

A weakness appears to be CP and clearance. Which is our same weakness.

Most games Geelong win they have around 45% or higher efficiency going ins50.

They average 57.7 ins50s and 34.5 rebound 50s.

So the bulk of their ins50s come from combination of clearance work, repeat in50s and intercepts/turnovers in the fwd half. They like the game in their fwd half.

I looked at cats wins and losses to see if there was any stat that stood out or repeated to demonstrate a path to victory.

When opposition make 8 or more tackles inside their fwd 50, the cats record was 10-4.

When the opposition make 12 or more tackles inside their fwd 50, the cats record was 3-3.

In those 3 losses (hawks, Freo and Stk) the opposition only had 47, 47 and 52 inside 50s. But they had 15, 18 and 12 tackles inside 50.

The wins came against North (16 tackles), Port Adelaide (13) and Dogs (19).

Interestingly, in the dogs first game vs Cats - they had 57 in50 and 7 tackles ins50s and lost by 13.

The 2nd game the dogs had 47 ins50s but 19 inside fwd 50 tackles.

That’s a pretty different style or way to play the Cats only 8 weeks after the first game when they did enough to have won the first meeting.

My suspicions is that the Dogs identified tackles inside fwd 50 was a key to beating the Cats but run out of legs, and the Cats adapted and readjusted over the game to run away winners.

If I recall, most of dogs inside fwd defensive pressure was in the 1st qtr and they never really took full advantage of opportunities. And as with most clubs that change their playing style it works for a while but they can’t sustain it.

In contrast to Cats, Pies average 53.8 inside 50s and 40.2 rebound 50s. Most or at least a lot, of our fwd 50 entries seem to come from the back half.

So what do I take from all these stats…

It’s essentially a team that loves to play in the fwd half vs a team that loves to counter from defence.

So pressure needs to be high to disrupt Cats delivery inside 50. If their efficiency inside 50 drops to 45% or less we doing well.

When Pies get it inside fwd 50, we have to be efficient and ready to tackle like maniacs to get repeat chances and stoppages.

My suspicion, I could be wrong as I don’t watch many cats games, is that Cats concede goals from either stoppages or chaos inside opponents fwd 50.

I don’t think their defence is built for rebound 50 - or at very least they aren’t used to having to repel from defence and turn into coast to coast goals.

And that’s not bagging the Cats, it’s just that they dominate in the fwd half so we’ll they most likely don’t concede alot of inside defensive 50s.

So that lack of practice in transition from the back half to fwd line can actually be a weakness Collingwood can exploit by pressure and intercepts.

So to me just based off the stats pies 4 keys to victory seem to be:

1. breaking even stoppage, CP and clearance (both teams are equally ordinary in these stats)

2. intercept, disrupt Cats inside 50 efficiency and counter attack (this has been our strength for alot of the year)

3. tackle inside forward 50 like maniacs (this is also a key strength for the pies - we were top 3 prior to the blues game and our average of 11.1 a game was dragged down due to only laying 3 tackles ins50 last week).

4. execute scoring opportunities. Pies will need to make the most of every opportunity. Cats are quality and won’t just roll over.

The best thing is, unlike the Western Bulldogs, we don’t even have to change our style to focus on the 4 keys to victory. We’ve been practicing it for 22 matches now.

I think our gameplan (if executed well) is perfect for undermining the Cats strengths, especially on the MCG.



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I love this post. That's some serious analysis! Thanks for putting in the effort and sharing your insights.

 

[IlovethePies]

I love this post. That's some serious analysis! Thanks for putting in the effort and sharing your insights.

I love this post. That's some serious analysis! Thanks for putting in the effort and sharing your insights.

Brilliant post, absolutely loved reading it. A really scientific, objective breakdown. Thanks

 

[Finnishpie]

Bests in the VFL today according to sen: Carmichael, Bianco, Kelly, Macrae.

I couldn’t watch it after the first quarter though. Jesus.

 

[gouki88]

Not for Geel - their aging list would hate the idea of playing 4 in a row if they lose in the first week.

They could, but Chris Scott is also notoriously poor at managing bye weeks.

 

[NMBB]

They could, but Chris Scott is also notoriously poor at managing bye weeks.

That's very good news - appreciate you sharing this

 

[jathanas]

Cameron has done his hamstrings 4 times this year. This has to be playing on their minds.

At his age every hammie strain increases the likelihood of the next one occuring and Saturday will have been 21 days since he did it.

I'd be nervous but Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

has declared the muscle healed, so it must be OK.

 

[Pistol Night]

Cameron has done his hamstrings 4 times this year. This has to be playing on their minds.

At his age every hammie strain increases the likelihood of the next one occuring and Saturday will have been 21 days since he did it.

I'd be nervous but Chris Scott has declared the muscle healed, so it must be OK.

Theres zero chance its healed already if it was a proper strain

 

[jathanas]

Theres zero chance its healed already if it was a proper strain

The scans showed a strain not a complete tear. The medical team got Chris Scott to talk to the hamstring which resulted in inspired healing.

 

[NMBB]

Cameron has done his hamstrings 4 times this year. This has to be playing on their minds.

At his age every hammie strain increases the likelihood of the next one occuring and Saturday will have been 21 days since he did it.

I'd be nervous but Chris Scott has declared the muscle healed, so it must be OK.

Thanks J - we're pretty good on hamstrings down here - could do with a tip re a decent hairdresser though

 

[NMBB]

The scans showed a strain not a complete tear. The medical team got Chris Scott to talk to the hamstring which resulted in inspired healing.

If the hamstring listened it will certainly lose its mind next week

 

[Chrispiesssss]

It’s weird how they don’t mention that McRae and Scott were all part of the same team.

Someone mentioned it earlier, but there definitely isn’t the “premiership mateship ” between these 2.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

It’s weird how they don’t mention that McRae and Scott were all part of the same team.

Someone mentioned it earlier, but there definitely isn’t the “premiership mateship ” between these 2.

Yeah not at all

Voss, Leppitsche, McRae, Jonathan Brown

You NEVER hear any of them speak of the Scott brothers. You wouldn't even know they were team mates if you're young enough lol

 

[Pistol Night]

Yeah not at all

Voss, Leppitsche, McRae, Jonathan Brown

You NEVER hear any of them speak of the Scott brothers. You wouldn't even know they were team mates if you're young enough lol

Brown does but their sort of cut from ythe same cloth. Flys too much of a good bloke to have a close bond with a Scott brother. The article in the Hun over the weekend was more evidence of this

 

[NMBB]

Brown does but their sort of cut from ythe same cloth. Flys too much of a good bloke to have a close bond with a Scott brother. The article in the Hun over the weekend was more evidence of this

Don't ask Justin L about Jason A

 

[KinderSmock]

Carmichael, Bianco, Macrae and Brown would be the four emergencies I'd be naming.

 

[KinderSmock]

Bests in the VFL today according to sen: Carmichael, Bianco, Kelly, Macrae.

I couldn’t watch it after the first quarter though. Jesus.

Kelly was a mile off the pace. He kicked the ball a lot but most of those were turnovers.

 

[iGNITER]

Surely selection should be pretty straightforward this week...

Adams in for Macrae.

B - Quaynor Moore Murphy
HB - N.Daicos Howe Maynard
C - J.Daicos DeGoey Crisp
HF - Elliott Cameron Sidebottom
F - Ginnivan Mihochek Johnson
R - Cox Adams Pendlebury
INT - McCreery Lipinski Noble WHE

Carmichael the sub (could be any of Macrae, Henry, Bianco, Brown etc)

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I suspect Tay will play no matter what at this point.

I assume they'll just manage him through any pain he may be feeling

 

[Jafo]

The scans showed a strain not a complete tear. The medical team got Chris Scott to talk to the hamstring which resulted in inspired healing.

If it bleeds, he can heal it.

 

[gouki88]

That's very good news - appreciate you sharing this

His win % in finals is just a touch over half his win % in H&A games. I think they are 6-13 since 2012.

 

[Pistol Night]

His win % in finals is just a touch over half his win % in H&A games. I think they are 6-13 since 2012.

1-8 in the first week. That gotta play on their minds

 

[gouki88]

1-8 in the first week. That gotta play on their minds

That really is awful, given how dominant they have been over the last decade.