Strategy Changes & Pre-match Discussion - Round 21 vs. Hawthorn, MCG, Sat 05/08, 4:35pm

[Big Bryza]

9 Weeks from Finals is still to early to be peaking, need to keep managing players during games and make sure we have our systems working. Right now we have a group of 26 players we will use barring injuries. this week like many is important still and cant go resting 3-4 players

OUT Cox, Lippa
IN Hill, Johnson. Sub Hill or Beau

Cox doesn't need explaining he has had a poor month and needs to get some confidence back, Lippa i am not sold on in his current role.

Umm... it's August tomorrow.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Odd question, how would AJ go as a floating CHB? Rotating him and Howe between the arcs could add another dimension to both their games.
Probably a bit late in to the season to try being cute, but for me, worth a shot.
It will teach AJ a thing a two about defence.

I'm not sure I'd be testing out one of our more talented natural forwards in a floating CHB role in round 21. If AJ comes in, as he should, it will be to kick goals in his natural habitat.

I'm not adverse to Howe playing on Sicily this week though.

 

[live fast pieyoung]

Sitting on level 4, this stood out like dogs balls. Players standing still or just walking from contest to contest was almost funny to watch.

Carlton out hunted us on the inside and then got us on the spread time and time again. I'm not overly concerned as it seemed to be a team wide issue. So it's mostly just attitude and for whatever reason the boys heads weren't in the game. Clearly it was a let down from last week and possibly they had a heavier week on the track.

Going to be fascinating to see how we respond this Saturday with a full weeks recovery.

We've really dropped off in the middle and also locking the ball inside 50. We can't keep relying on winning games through slingshot footy. A team like the Dees will eat us alive if we're too reliant on it.

Also sat on level 4, and totally agree
Was very clear how little running and pressure we put on.
I dont think there was too much to read into this game, other than the point this first poster has mentioned about getting our clearance game up and running, and this depending on getting JDG sorted

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

Where has it been reported that our GPS numbers were down in the area you list?

Part of the AFL app has a Tracker component.
Which mostly is pretty pointless and a bit of fun....

But no matter how accurate it actually is, comparing it week to week is still a point of reference to work rate and intensity.

two numbers in particular are total distance covered and total sprint efforts by each team.

v port - 296kms, 302 sprint efforts (which is maintaining high speed for x seconds).
v blues - 278kms, 268

Blues were up on their numbers (besides the WCE game in which they had big numbers - but they also made 5 changes, which skews the data a bit).
They beat us for both distance and sprints. Which shows they had more intensity and effort.

FWIW - using these two stats across the year, we usually break even or lose the total distance, but win the sprint efforts. Which directly reflects our high tempo gamestyle.

Point is our Port numbers are well above the blues numbers. Off a 5 day break.
I'm backing the Port numbers come finals.....

I take the data with a grain of salt as there are always significant outliers and reasons for them (i.e. dependent on how the game plays out)
.....but point is those numbers for us were down and it somewhat backs up the views of what posters saw at the game.

 

[No SPIN]

You dont have to care

If this stuff is keeping you awake at night you need to find a hobby.
Just like the lament so often trotted out about lost GF’s - the past is the past, and unless there’s a Time Machine somewhere, it has no relevance to the Club today.
We don’t need to worry about this stuff mate.

 

[Scodog10]

I agree with everything except the bolded bit. Let’s leave that talk until if & when we have qualified. Play like we did on Friday night & we won’t even be there.
I think if we are going to continue the Howe experiment up forward then A.J may miss out. Which I think is a mistake. But I would prefer Frampton down back if Howe moves forward. Murphy is too short for a full time KPB. The selectors still have a bit to consider.

That’s not really the path I was taking. Every decision we make around our best 23 is around what we want it to look like on GF day because we don’t adjust anything about our game to take anything from the opposition. As opposed to looking forward to GF itself.

If the above reads as the exact same statement it’s one that gets lost in translation when written

 

[Gone Critical]

If this stuff is keeping you awake at night you need to find a hobby.
Just like the lament so often trotted out about lost GF’s - the past is the past, and unless there’s a Time Machine somewhere, it has no relevance to the Club today.

Nah its not keeping me awake.

If you said our record against Hawks had no relevance to the current Collingwood team in their prep I agree 100%. Is it relevent to a Collingwood chat group? Absolutely, any fat we want to chew is.

Is anything posted on footy chat sites relevant to the Collingwood team? No

I think you may be getting mixed up about the importance of Big Footy beyond us mugs posting here.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I keep seeing people call for Lipinski to be dropped

Why would we drop Lipinski before Adams?

Adams is slower, smaller and horrifically skilled, with frighteningly consistent turnovers that absolutely kill our momentum and often result in opposition goals.

Lipinksi...kicks a couple of clangers here and there?

 

[No SPIN]

I keep seeing people call for Lipinski to be dropped

Why would we drop Lipinski before Adams?

Adams is slower, smaller and horrifically skilled, with frighteningly consistent turnovers that absolutely kill our momentum and often result in opposition goals.

Lipinksi...kicks a couple of clangers here and there?

If CP is an issue why would we drop a player with grunt like Adams?
It just makes things worse.

 

[Scodog10]

Not much needs to change from an ins/outs perspective.
Hill to come in.
Cox goes out.

Depends if they want a look at Howe full game forward, or AJ.
if they want to look at Howe, Frampton comes in.
If not, AJ.

Sub will be moved around (my bet is Lipinski).

Our GPS numbers were unbelievably low. Not really the distance we travelled, but the high speed efforts were well down.
So that's the thing we need to get right first and foremost.
Its interesting that our numbers last week against port were virtually Season high....indicating our effort and recovery probably was a big factor in the numbers this week being almost season low.

The biggest change we can make is to our midfield mix.

Its no co-incidence that since JDG is back, we've started to get hammered out of the middle.
Its not the losing that worries me...but the clean exits.

For me, that's all down to Nick & JDG playing midfield......
Hawks will tag. That's a given and they did it very effectively in a practice match.
Nick getting tagged means if he is not on the move (because JDG is), then he is completely ineffective and we are 1 down in there.

My preference is to have either JDG or Nick in there (not both).
They are the offensive movers.
Run Mitchell / adams/ pendles...whoever else....to play as the more defensive minded mids.
If we don't win it clean via the offensive mover, at least break even and go again.
That's how we operated until JDG came back (and also why Nick did so well when JDG was out....much harder to tag when the guy is on the move).

I'd be shocked if we see much of Nick and JDG in the middle at the same time from now on.

Where’s this one come from? I’m assuming the AFL app, but I’m hoping I’m wrong.

I’m not sure about the Naicos/ JDG one. It looked pretty schmick v Fremantle and WB then seemed to hold up alright v Port with JDG playing a stinker. My take is the balance around them needs to be better rather than splitting up our best stoppage players.

I don’t know about what their record over the past 45 years tells us about their chances of beating us and I’d rather focus on their past six weeks. That record tells me that if we allow them to play on their terms like Carlton things will be much worse Saturday night because their ball movement is second only to ours.

 

[Scodog10]

If CP is an issue why would we drop a player with grunt like Adams?
It just makes things worse.

I keep seeing people call for Lipinski to be dropped

Why would we drop Lipinski before Adams?

Adams is slower, smaller and horrifically skilled, with frighteningly consistent turnovers that absolutely kill our momentum and often result in opposition goals.

Lipinksi...kicks a couple of clangers here and there?

Neither will be dropped and the only people calling for them to go out have NFI.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

Where’s this one come from? I’m assuming the AFL app, but I’m hoping I’m wrong.

I’m not sure about the Naicos/ JDG one. It looked pretty schmick v Fremantle and WB then seemed to hold up alright v Pprt with JDG playing a stinker. My take is the balance around them needs to be better rather than splitting up our best stoppage players.

I don’t know about what their record over the past 45 years tells us about their chances of beating us and I’d rather focus on their past six weeks. That record tells me that if we allow them to play on their terms like Carlton things will be much worse Saturday night because their ball movement is second only to ours.

see my other post about the numbers.
...its not the numbers themselves or the concern about the accuracy of the source.
Its the application of those numbers across a number of weeks from a consistent source.
So like for like, its still a valid point of reference (and only using 2 stats as reference points).

Yup. Hawks are underrated. Absolute hot and cold, but they play a similar style to us.
Little wonder in all games we've had against them in the last 2 years its been a super close contest in terms of the way the ball moves.
They actually match up well for us.
Its whether they can hold it for the entire game. Which is their current weakness.

IMO, the Naicos / JDG is absolute boom or bust when together.
Freo & bulldogs was absolute boom. So looks great!
But we got to see what both Port & blues look like when its a bust. That was more a finals style look than Freo / dogs.
For mine, the balance around them can only exist if you remove one of them and make the other the focus.
Otherwise you're basically saying the final player needs to change.
The method we used until JDG came back (which is where we played Nick & JDG together) was a much better balance.
Since port & blues understood you need to stand Nick, he's become super ineffectual in there.

For mine, i want to play Nick mostly off HB and let him move into the middle as soon as its bounced. He'll be the player arriving if it bobbles around and be in the outside role he has dominated this year.
Letting him "fight through a tag" isn't helping us at all.
In fact i'd argue we're so 'aware' of it, that its hurting guys like Mitchell & Adams as they are mostly defending 1v3 if we don't take it clean....

 

[Gaben]

Only 2nd to the melts when he gets subbed off injured mid way through the 2nd quarter.

Only missed one out of the last 2 months of VFL and that was from concussion protocols. Iron's hot, time to strike. He's the best option for our overall team balance as fwd/backup ruck, got a month now to see what he can offer. Worse case, we just swing back to Mase. AJ isn't a feasible backup ruck and we need to make sure we don't swing back to relying on McStay to chop out, it completely stuffs our forward structure and we still get spanked when he's in there, it's the worst of both worlds.

Out: Cox, Lippa
In: Kreuger, Hill

Those two changes speed us up dramatically and make us significantly more dynamic across our front half. Think WHE is still our best bet for the sub just because of his versatility, but I wouldn't be surprised if we elected to go with Hill instead. Using WHE as a sub does rob him of one of his greatest assets - that is his endurance running.

I'd also be perfectly content to go back to Adams as the prime mover in the midfield and Mitchell to be the starting sub or not be in the team at all. Mitchell's a borderline liability outside of direct stoppages, and even in there, his numbers have dropped off dramatically in the past month. Tough call, but it feels like we've committed to the Mitchell path and it's hard to see us diverting now.

 

[Aussie pie]

The Howe move was a surprise no one saw coming, Clubs will adapt to it and plan for it now.

He looked good up there

I suggested it before the season as a way to fit in Frampton and bolster our forwards but of course bf posters shouted me down. Not saying it should be permanent but more break glass in case of emergency.

 

[Aussie pie]

Bobby and AJ the ins for me Cox and I would say Lipinski but the coach likes him so I’m not sure but you can almost guarantee someone will have a sniffle this week and will miss.
I’d like to get big Billy in as well and settle him down back but not sure how to do that.

 

[Gone Critical]

Only missed one out of the last 2 months of VFL and that was from concussion protocols. Iron's hot, time to strike. He's the best option for our overall team balance as fwd/backup ruck, got a month now to see what he can offer. Worse case, we just swing back to Mase. AJ isn't a feasible backup ruck and we need to make sure we don't swing back to relying on McStay to chop out, it completely stuffs our forward structure and we still get spanked when he's in there, it's the worst of both worlds.

Out: Cox, Lippa
In: Kreuger, Hill

Those two changes speed us up dramatically and make us significantly more dynamic across our front half. Think WHE is still our best bet for the sub just because of his versatility, but I wouldn't be surprised if we elected to go with Hill instead. Using WHE as a sub does rob him of one of his greatest assets - that is his endurance running.

I'd also be perfectly content to go back to Adams as the prime mover in the midfield and Mitchell to be the starting sub or not be in the team at all. Mitchell's a borderline liability outside of direct stoppages, and even in there, his numbers have dropped off dramatically in the past month. Tough call, but it feels like we've committed to the Mitchell path and it's hard to see us diverting now.

AJ is the one we need back. We lack strong goal kickers and AJ is 3rd for goals per game this year. IMHO opinion it was a mistake to drop him for Carlton. He looks a confidence player so why mess with consec 3 goal games. He was good in the AFL so should be the 1st to come back. Kreuger has been cruelled for sure but has only kicked 4 goals in his career, now is the time to get the best 23 up and running not experiment.

Our most potent scoring big man combo is Checkers, Cox and AJ. Would love to see that group up and firing coming into Sept.

 

[Big Bryza]

If CP is an issue why would we drop a player with grunt like Adams?
It just makes things worse.

Tay's inconsistency has been a huge issue this season.

Puts up good numbers v Freo and Port and then goes MIA v Carlton. Not only that, he turned every one of his kicks over.

In saying that, it was a flat performance across the board so proof will be in the pudding this weekend.

 

[Scodog10]

see my other post about the numbers.
...its not the numbers themselves or the concern about the accuracy of the source.
Its the application of those numbers across a number of weeks from a consistent source.
So like for like, its still a valid point of reference (and only using 2 stats as reference points).

Yup. Hawks are underrated. Absolute hot and cold, but they play a similar style to us.
Little wonder in all games we've had against them in the last 2 years its been a super close contest in terms of the way the ball moves.
They actually match up well for us.
Its whether they can hold it for the entire game. Which is their current weakness.

IMO, the Naicos / JDG is absolute boom or bust when together.
Freo & bulldogs was absolute boom. So looks great!
But we got to see what both Port & blues look like when its a bust. That was more a finals style look than Freo / dogs.
For mine, the balance around them can only exist if you remove one of them and make the other the focus.
Otherwise you're basically saying the final player needs to change.
The method we used until JDG came back (which is where we played Nick & JDG together) was a much better balance.
Since port & blues understood you need to stand Nick, he's become super ineffectual in there.

For mine, i want to play Nick mostly off HB and let him move into the middle as soon as its bounced. He'll be the player arriving if it bobbles around and be in the outside role he has dominated this year.
Letting him "fight through a tag" isn't helping us at all.
In fact i'd argue we're so 'aware' of it, that its hurting guys like Mitchell & Adams as they are mostly defending 1v3 if we don't take it clean....

I saw. I view it differently and don’t agree with your absolute statement that our numbers were down on the basis of two data points. That’s not me saying they weren’t off rather that I don’t agree with your decision to use that data as the source of truth.

I think you’re taking the JDG and Naicos outputs and using them to suit your narrative. The two together has failed once on the night when we failed all over the park part of which was because you definitively told us our GPS was off.

IMO, the club knows better than us and I would be equally shocked if they used it as a combo during our big boy month and then abandoned it 5 weeks from a QF. That’s a Buckley move not a Fly move.

 

[Scodog10]

Where has it been reported that our GPS numbers were down in the area you list?

It hasn’t and is supposition

 

[Apex36]

If Krueger’s game was awesome, then Johnson’s game was unbelievably outstanding by that reckoning.

It would have been if he’d kicked straight for goal.
Weird logic though, that you’d try to shit on another blokes very good game because another guy played a better one.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

We have a few issues with our game at the moment, but we have a month to rectify them....

 

[pz5151]

While Johnson did everything necessary to deserve a recall, we need to look structurally at what sets the team up best. Our main problems were that we couldn't get the ball out of defence well and that our forward line was one dimensional, relying on bombing it to a contested marking situation with no one at ground level.

Giving Howe another week in the forward line alongside Mihocek and McStay allows for a good combination of types of forwards, alongside Bobby Hill as a crumber, McReery as the defensive forward and Elliott as the medium forward.

Putting Frampton on the monster key forwards allows Moore the greater freedom to attack the play and set up attacking thrusts. His disposal was the worst we've seen in years because he was so paranoid about holding down Curnow and was not able to influence the play through intercepts after the first half of the first quarter. It also allows for flexibility to have Howe go back if that doesn't work, to put Frampton or McStay in the ruck if required and to cover if a key defender goes down.

IN: Frampton, Hill
OUT: Cox, Lipinski
SUBSTITUTE: One of Josh Daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

26

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

, Hoskin-Elliott.

 

[pz5151]

We have a few issues with our game at the moment, but we have a month to rectify them....

View attachment 1760962

Bit rough on McStay to feature him in that pic considering none of it is his fault.

Those stats have got me rattled a bit to be honest. My 30+ years of pessimism from supporting us is making me think that this season has Melbourne 2022 vibes about it. Really hope I am wrong and that the club is just pushing hard on the training track prior to finals but those are some scary numbers.

 

[Gaben]

We have a few issues with our game at the moment, but we have a month to rectify them....

View attachment 1760962

The time in forward half is the noticeable and worrying one. We've really seemed to struggle to win the territory battle for awhile now (10 weeks?).
Would love to see some statistics on often how we manage to keep the ball in our half after an opposition kick out. We always seem to give an easy release on kick outs, they way we setup the zone continually results in the ball being out on the wing within two easy kicks.

We obviously do our best work from D50 rebounding, but it'd be nice to not have to rely on it so heavily all the time.

 

[Scodog10]

The time in forward half is the noticeable and worrying one. We've really seemed to struggle to win the territory battle for awhile now (10 weeks?).
Would love to see some statistics on often how we manage to keep the ball in our half after an opposition kick out. We always seem to give an easy release on kick outs, they way we setup the zone continually results in the ball being out on the wing within two easy kicks.

We obviously do our best work from D50 rebounding, but it'd be nice to not have to rely on it so heavily all the time.

It’s all relative. If those numbers are similar in Rds 1-9 then it would be clear that our game isn’t built on them.

We’ve always been a poor clearance side. Territory is built on clearance and also impacted by your offensive and defensive efficiency. For instance if you’ve got a good transition game and can turn rebounds into scores you’re naturally going to spend less time in your forward half so those two don’t bother me that much. I’d like our ground ball get numbers to be better though (even if overall numbers is a garbage stat). Something tells me that it not being a differential means we’re doing ok on that front and there’s just been less ground balls in our matches v the rest of the competition.

For me the worrying sign has been our inability to transition the ball the past fortnight. It feels like teams are taking stuff from us lately and we aren’t countering it well.