threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
We'll finish with a better percentage than all other teams that have 13 wins, the issue is that any of Essendon, Fremantle or Brisbane could play slightly below expectations for the rest of the year, and finish in 8th with 13 1/2 wins, losing 8-point games to teams that use those wins over those three teams to leapfrog themselves into 14 wins to get themselves into finals. Round 23 has Fremantle playing Geelong and Gold Coast playing Essendon. Geelong and Gold Coast win those and the chance of there being a logjam of 14 and 13 1/2 wins is a lot higher, for instance.13 will get us in given that our percentage is much better than the teams around us
In a way we sort of need Brisbane, Fremantle and Essendon to keep winning. While it might limit us to only finishing 7th or 8th and open up the possibility of away finals or remove the complete remote chance of top 4, it's more critical that results go our way to make finals full stop rather than what's best for as high a ladder position as possible. We'll drop games on the run home.