Recommitted Clayton Oliver [re-signed until 2030]

[The 747]

Damo Barrett mentions interest from Carlton in the latest edition of Sliding Doors.

Somewhat of a redundant opinion, all clubs would be interested in this player if he was available. Asking price would determine how many.

 

[Sir Hugh Percy]

There is a very simple answer to why clubs always seem to be able to fit in players when everyone thinks they would be way over the cap. The media reporting of salaries is almost always inflated and categorically wrong. It's also always reported very one dimensionally. They will get a figure that is usually 10% more than the player will earn at the peak of his contract and then times that by the length of his contract and call it.
There are much more complex answers as well. People often view contracts as fixed amounts. Player A gets 600 a year for the next 5 years, Player B 450 for 4 and so on.
This is a long way off the mark.
Very, very few players in the AFL are currently on fixed amounts, I'd suggest less than 10%.
Most players these days are on a base then have many factors written in that make up the total payment.
Contracts are also almost always weighted. A guy that signs as a 26 yr old usually has peak earning when the are 28-29, so whilst their contract peaks at 700 a year, it usually tapers by the time they reach 30.
This is one of the reasons why, even though they will have a large contract from Rance coming off the books, Richmond have very little cap space for next year.

Its also important to note that first and second year players have locked base contracts, with small incentives based on games played and draft position.
Carlton have 8 (~20%) of their list currently locked in to base contracts. They also have a full compliment of rookies.
Whilst it might surprise people to learn that players like Simpson, Kreuzer, Murphy and Mitch McGovern were/are paid so much, one of the reasons is Carlton simple didn't have anyone else to pay, and needed to make the 95% mark of the total salary.

None of this has anything to do with Clayton Oliver though, so I'm sorry to go off topic. Just thought I'd try to help clear up some common misconceptions.

For what its worth regarding Clayton, I think he's a dead set star.

yeah nah

 

[gawndog37]

Damo Barrett mentions interest from Carlton in the latest edition of Sliding Doors.

No doubt Carlton is interested, it's whether they would have the capabilities to get it done and what it would take for Melbourne to trade him. I don't think Oliver is untradeable due to our glut of inside mids but it would have to take an enormous deal for us to let him go. Riley Beveridge mentioned on Wednesday that Carlton have about 700k left in their salary cap after Williams and Saad, which wouldn't be enough to lure Oliver over so they would have to give up a player to get Oliver if a trade was to occur. Carlton's 2020 and 2021 first rounds picks would be the starting point, it would take those 2 picks and one of their young guns (thinking maybe Petrevski-Seton) to get it done, it's whether Carlton or any club think it's worth giving up an arm and a leg to get him across.

 

[F_therest]

yeah nah

Nice thought out post full of logic and knowledge.

 

[Guy Threepwood]

IF

Damo mentions it.

THEN

It's still not likely to happen.

 

[Andy_Mac]

I can understand why Carlton will want to go pretty hard at Clarry.

Cripps is already looking like an old man and he's the centre piece of their midfield. It's conceivable that he's already on the decline. Much like Jack Viney.

Cripps may only be a bit part when Carlton are back in top 8 contention

 

[branedotorg]

No doubt Carlton is interested, it's whether they would have the capabilities to get it done and what it would take for Melbourne to trade him. I don't think Oliver is untradeable due to our glut of inside mids but it would have to take an enormous deal for us to let him go. Riley Beveridge mentioned on Wednesday that Carlton have about 700k left in their salary cap after Williams and Saad, which wouldn't be enough to lure Oliver over so they would have to give up a player to get Oliver if a trade was to occur. Carlton's 2020 and 2021 first rounds picks would be the starting point, it would take those 2 picks and one of their young guns (thinking maybe Petrevski-Seton) to get it done, it's whether Carlton or any club think it's worth giving up an arm and a leg to get him across.

i'd do the two firsts but would want a second at least coming back if SPS was added. Two firsts outright is more than neale, more than shiel, more than trelor - oliver worth more than trelor & shiel, think neale has him covered but age is also a factor.

 

[La Dispute]

I can understand why Carlton will want to go pretty hard at Clarry.

Cripps is already looking like an old man and he's the centre piece of their midfield. It's conceivable that he's already on the decline. Much like Jack Viney.

Cripps may only be a bit part when Carlton are back in top 8 contention

Melbourne fans already jumping at shadows. Interesting.

Guess we shouldn't trade for Clarry afterall, as he's just going to be same position as Cripps in two years time after carrying (Clarrying?) Melbourne since his second season.

 

[00Stinger]

Melbourne fans already jumping at shadows. Interesting.

Guess we shouldn't trade for Clarry afterall, as he's just going to be same position as Cripps in two years time after carrying (Clarrying?) Melbourne since his second season.

Good thing that he isn't even our best midfielder anymore and hasn't had to carry us for as long as Cripps has Carlton then I guess

 

[La Dispute]

i'd do the two firsts but would want a second at least coming back if SPS was added. Two firsts outright is more than neale, more than shiel, more than trelor - oliver worth more than trelor & shiel, think neale has him covered but age is also a factor.

I think that is pretty much it though. Oliver is arguably a better player than Neale was when he left Freo, and he's also a couple of years younger.

Probably overpaying slightly, but Oliver is contracted and we'd need to offer Melbourne a substantial amount to get the trade over the line, if he did want to join.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Damo Barrett mentions interest from Carlton in the latest edition of Sliding Doors.

Put a line through it then.

 

[La Dispute]

Good thing that he isn't even our best midfielder anymore and hasn't had to carry us for as long as Cripps has Carlton then I guess

Both won BnF's in their second year - I'd say their trajectories are pretty similar really. Grabbing Clarry certainly would ease the load on Cripps and give us a huge POD at the stoppages with a couple of contested beasts.

Interesting to see what plays out.

 

[gawndog37]

i'd do the two firsts but would want a second at least coming back if SPS was added. Two firsts outright is more than neale, more than shiel, more than trelor - oliver worth more than trelor & shiel, think neale has him covered but age is also a factor.

Yeah fair enough, just saying that it would have to take a deal that blows Melbourne away for us to move him. Carlton or any club would have to overpay to get him across.

 

[Kenny Hunter09]

I can understand why Carlton will want to go pretty hard at Clarry.

Cripps is already looking like an old man and he's the centre piece of their midfield. It's conceivable that he's already on the decline. Much like Jack Viney.

Cripps may only be a bit part when Carlton are back in top 8 contention

Quietly confident we'll be in top 8 connection next year (you could argue we this year until we came a cropper in the final games of the season).
Pretty sure Cripps won't be falling off the productivity cliff just yet.

 

[schmuttt]

Again, a trade won't happen this year. Our footy department have their jobs on the line next year, they aren't trading out an A grader for picks that could well be guns but will take 4-5 years to come on.

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

Paddy dow and Cam polsen for Clayton Oliver final offer. Take it or leave it

 

[00Stinger]

Both won BnF's in their second year - I'd say their trajectories are pretty similar really. Grabbing Clarry certainly would ease the load on Cripps and give us a huge POD at the stoppages with a couple of contested beasts.

Interesting to see what plays out.

Trajectories are very similar but Oliver has had more support early on whereas Cripps is only starting to get support around him now

Oliver would make any midfield in the league better

 

[La Dispute]

Trajectories are very similar but Oliver has had more support early on whereas Cripps is only starting to get support around him now

Oliver would make any midfield in the league better

It gets overstated how little support Cripps had. Gibbs played more on the inside from 2014-2017, we've also had E. Curnow doing plenty of grunt work and Setterfield came in last year and played almost exclusively as an inside mid from mid 2019.

I think there's this assumption Crippa's been battered from dominating the clearances, but really it's been him doing the battering. Years of grunt work haven't affected Selwood, Judd was a dominant inside midfielder until his last season carrying a pretty mediocre team for 8 years.

Crippa will be fine regardless whether we land Oliver or not.

 

[markm106]

Oliver gets a huge amount of assistance in the contested footy situation. Trac Viney and Brayshaw all capable of winning their own footy.
Honestly the comments on Cripps body getting smashed are on the mark. Constantly looks spent and sore. Needs a beast like Clarry and can see why they’re asking yearly.

 

[00Stinger]

It gets overstated how little support Cripps had. Gibbs played more on the inside from 2014-2017, we've also had E. Curnow doing plenty of grunt work and Setterfield came in last year and played almost exclusively as an inside mid from mid 2019.

I think there's this assumption Crippa's been battered from dominating the clearances, but really it's been him doing the battering. Years of grunt work haven't affected Selwood, Judd was a dominant inside midfielder until his last season carrying a pretty mediocre team for 8 years.

Crippa will be fine regardless whether we land Oliver or not.

His form this year defiantly didn't help dispel the battered body theory. Having said that reading about his personal situation, that could very well be the reason for his form slide

Tbh though I am 99.99% confident that Oliver isn't leaving

 

[La Dispute]

His form this year defiantly didn't help dispel the battered body theory. Having said that reading about his personal situation, that could very well be the reason for his form slide

Tbh though I am 99.99% confident that Oliver isn't leaving

He carried a shoulder injury this year, otherwise he has been injury free across his entire career. Already had his op IIRC, and will be fresh for the start of next year, hopefully with ol Clarry starting the square with him.

 

[La Dispute]

Oliver gets a huge amount of assistance in the contested footy situation. Trac Viney and Brayshaw all capable of winning their own footy.
Honestly the comments on Cripps body getting smashed are on the mark. Constantly looks spent and sore. Needs a beast like Clarry and can see why they’re asking yearly.

Sounds like you guys don't have much need for Oliver, with so many capable contested players. Melbourne still need some more class around the ground and desperately need a key position forward, so maybe we can arrange for Mitch McGovern or Levi Casboult to be sent to Melbourne as part of the trade?

 

[exxcessivve]

IF

Damo mentions it.

THEN

It's still not likely to happen.

as much as he is an annoying shit-stirrer, he does not publish trade news that isn’t founded on credible info.

 

[00Stinger]

Sounds like you guys don't have much need for Oliver, with so many capable contested players. Melbourne still need some more class around the ground and desperately need a key position forward, so maybe we can arrange for Mitch McGovern or Levi Casboult to be sent to Melbourne as part of the trade?

how about we just give you Harmes instead of Oliver then

He is a good contested ball winner

 

[markm106]

Sounds like you guys don't have much need for Oliver, with so many capable contested players. Melbourne still need some more class around the ground and desperately need a key position forward, so maybe we can arrange for Mitch McGovern or Levi Casboult to be sent to Melbourne as part of the trade?

Because we have some fantastic inside mids doesn’t mean we want to trade Oliver. Trade Brayshaw out before him.