Politics Climate Change Paradox (cont in part 2)

[Deliverance]

Aside from Playing the man, is their scientific proof climate change causes drought?

Not necessarily causes it, but exacerbates it.

Global warming and changes in drought - Nature Climate Change

Recent studies have produced conflicting results about the impacts of climate change on drought. In this Perspective, a commonly used drought index and observational data are examined to identify the cause of these discrepancies. The authors indicate that improvements in the quality and coverage...

www.nature.com

Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Niña events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense

 

[Snake_Baker]

Australia is historically a land of low rainfall, but there is no long-term trend of decreasing rainfall.

Australia Average Rainfall Map: Wet & Dry Seasons & States

Australia is home to some of the driest regions in the world, while also being subject to periods of heavy rainfall and cyclones. See more.

www.bushmantanks.com.au

Yes, we had record low rainfall in 2019, due largely to the record positive Indian Ocean Dipole, as previously discussed.

Everybody knew conditions would be volatile this bushfire season. Everybody. Did we do enough to prepare?

 

[sdfc]

It's actually CO2 rises, purportedly contributes to positive radiative forcing, plant life takes off and plant transpiration puts a lot more water in atmosphere.

Most water vapour in the atmosphere is caused by evaporation. The warmer the atmosphere the more evaporation. It's one of those nasty feedbacks that contributes to more warming.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Most water vapour in the atmosphere is caused by evaporation. The warmer the atmosphere the more evaporation. It's one of those nasty feedbacks that contributes to more warming.

I was referring to the CO2 aspect with regards to plants as the radiative forcing aspect is up for debate depending on who you source.

 

[sdfc]

I was referring to the CO2 aspect with regards to plants as the radiative forcing aspect is up for debate depending on who you source.

Fair enough. My understanding would be that, all things being equal, increased transpiration would lead to more rainfall, however, if the atmosphere's capacity to hold water vapour was increased, say through an increase in temperature, then I suppose it may contribute to global warming to some extent. Leaving out the impact of plant absorption and storage of CO2.

 

[Father Jack]

What is your take on those facts? That it would be fine the rainfall increase is uniform across the country and across the year, or that because that website stated that as there is increased rainfall in the tropical north and from cyclones offsetting lower rainfall in the south, therefore that means there is cause for concern?

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

The whole lot is theory based. The theory is accepted; the mechanisms in practice are not proven.

Which mechanisms aren't proven?

As Spencer says, "All of the accumulated warming of the climate system since the 1950s, including the deep oceans, was caused by a global energy imbalance of 1 part in 600; yet modern science does not know, with a precision approaching 1 part in 100, any of the natural energy flows in and out of the climate system. It is simply assumed that the tiny energy imbalance - and thus warming - was caused by humans."

Which is wrong, as much of the evidence behind anthropogenic climate change stems from the other side of the equation ie. calculating the impact of human activities. This is detailed in the IPCC report.

 

[Hawk_francais]

Thanks. Thats what I wanted. I'll have a read.

It’s really worrying that you come to a football forum to get educated about the basics of global warming.

 

[Blue1980]

Seems we have some intelligent debate going on here, rather than the usual it’s all climate change vs climate change doesn’t exist

 

[Grin]

Now that there is absolutely no sane debate that man made climate change is happening, even the Young Libs are calling for more action, the last bastion for denial is a few crazies on the internet and some delusional fundamentalist religious types, who can't admit the blindingly obvious because of the cognitive dissonance that would result.
My advice to them is to do the same as the idiots who denied the science around the dangers of cigarette smoking and asbestos: Crawl back under your logs.
Next time the Andrew Bolts and Alan Jones of the world try to convince you that propaganda from vested interests trumps the science, please try and use a bit of critical thought. That way you'll not look quite so ****ing stupid.

A scientist who has spent years and years studying his area of expertise and works for 80k a year, isn't a capitalist elite involved in a secret communist plot to take over the world, you planks. Billionaire miners calling for wage cuts and denying the science at the expense of our children and grand children, aren't working class heroes.
I can't believe you berks fell for that shit. In future, try to learn from your foolish mistakes, or STFU (as if you'll do either).

 

[romeohwho]

Aside from Playing the man, is their scientific proof climate change causes drought?

Think you’ll find most scientists accept there is a clear link between worsening droughts and climate change. The increasing heat and changing rainfall patterns are exacerbating conditions.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Think you’ll find most scientists accept there is a clear link between worsening droughts and climate change.

Really?

 

[Hawk_francais]

fu** off troll

You're the one who told us that climate change affecting drought didn't make sense. Took five seconds to show that you hadn't ever read the specifics about the most important challenge facing our planet and society. This stuff is not new, and it's not obscure. Why not just listen to and trust the publications of the climate council? https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/climate-change-and-drought-factsheet/

People like you are trolling all of us.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'd rather something that's not from Tim Flannerys group.,

Would you prefer it come from Rinehart or Palmer?

 

[Hawk_francais]

I'd rather something that's not from Tim Flannerys group.,

Ahhh yes, that must be because of his under-the-table deals with big polluters and because his work has been ridiculed by the wider scientific community. Or is that our political parties and mainstream media?

Tim Flannery’s been warning the country for decades about droughts and fires exactly like the ones we’re experiencing (that work won him the australian of the year 2007), and now people like you still have the temerity to suggest that someone else has a better handle on the science.

 

[romeohwho]

I'd rather something that's not from Tim Flannerys group.,

Well then get out there and do your own research—there is a lot of info out there so no excuses to be uninformed.
Flannery, of course, is very well informed on the issues, so you might actually learn something. And we can’t have that can we.

 

[Hawk_francais]

Really?

CSIRO?

Climate change and extreme events – quantifying the changing odds - ECOS

The field of climate change event attribution research has emerged recently and can provide new insights into Australian climate extremes.

ecos.csiro.au

 

[Snake_Baker]

CSIRO?

Climate change and extreme events – quantifying the changing odds - ECOS

The field of climate change event attribution research has emerged recently and can provide new insights into Australian climate extremes.

ecos.csiro.au

1) The CSIRO are now a politicized body with regard to climate.
2) Your link is just more stab in the dark climate prediction modelling.


"What about bushfires and drought? Well, it’s complicated.

Droughts can be long, so we need long data records to get a reliable context. The drivers of drought are complex and not completely understood, and long droughts are challenging to simulate in models. These are all reasons for caution. In terms of extended rainfall deficiencies as a main driver of drought, we understand the influence of climate change in those regions where we know climate change has altered the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the rainfall patterns, for instance in south-west Australia. In other regions the drivers can be more complex, and it can be harder to determine possible links with climate change. These cases pose interesting research problems."

 

[Deliverance]

CSIRO?

Climate change and extreme events – quantifying the changing odds - ECOS

The field of climate change event attribution research has emerged recently and can provide new insights into Australian climate extremes.

ecos.csiro.au

Snakey's not a big fan of the CSRIO. You'll need to try harder to convince him.

Edit: dam. You beat me to it.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Snakey's not a big fan of the CSRIO. You'll need to try harder to convince him.

Indeed. The political parasites have infiltrated this once great organization.

It's not to be trusted with regard to politically volatile topics.

 

[Kwality]

You do realise reduction burns are rolling and not just a single season measure?
Victoria 5% = 20 year turnaround, WA 8% = 12 year turnaround.
10% - 10 year turnaround is what many bushfire experts recommend as optimal

Blaming one or two innefective seasons is ridiculous

Is it administered centrally, drawing lines on maps, is that effective use of resources?
Sounds like built up areas only policy?
In the bush where volunteers are the front line, land owners used manage their own property & now I understand they need Council approval for some specific time in the future, great theory ... see the results.

Bizarre use of %s Bazzar, 8% of WA is near on equal to whole of Victoria, great maths, just not here

 

[Kwality]

Indeed. The political parasites have infiltrated this once great organization.

It's not to be trusted with regard to politically volatile topics.

Group think, great example?

 

[Ron The Bear]

The ABC have rolled out our old friend "Hockey Stick" Mann, fresh from courtroom annihilation.




For those skeptical that the warming lobby would pervert science in order to get its way, here is a pretty good summary of Mann's work.

A disgrace to the profession

 

[Kwality]

The ABC have rolled out our old friend "Hockey Stick" Mann, fresh from courtroom annihilation.




For those skeptical that the warming lobby would pervert science in order to get its way, here is a pretty good summary of Mann's work.

A disgrace to the profession

New one on me, should i go there ?

 

[Ron The Bear]

New one on me, should i go there ?

It's a free world.