COLLINGWOOD. NEXT 5 YEARS?

[cakewalk06]

The way to prevent the ageing cliff is by being ageist and dumping players before they get old. If only we had managed out Pendles, Steele, Howe and a few others about three years ago, we would be flying in 2026.


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Call it the James Dean effect. We could be forever young

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

What's happened & is happening now is a re-inventing of what we know & how we use to view things & the direction we can now see things going.

I can't be clearer than that.

What we know is the known knowns, it's the unknown knowns that may surprise us. But the real issue is the known unknowns that we believe we know but we dont know.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Sidebottom, Elliot, Pendlebury and Howe were all AA quality. Probably not now, but not so long ago.

While I’m not trying to diminish the quality he brings, Elliott hasn’t even made an AA 40 man squad so I’m interested in how you justify that claim.

The others all have AA honors, but there’s been a bit of water under the bridge since they achieved them, Pendles the most recent of the 3 in 2019. We aren’t looking to replace the players they were 5+ seasons ago, and it doesn’t have to be their direct replacements who replace that quality in the team. That could be a player obtained under FA in 2025 or beyond. It could also be argued we’ve already replaced a couple of those AA quality pieces with the drafting of the Daicos brothers, and the trading of Houston.

 

[Mollythedolly]

The picks we don’t give away for middle of the road role players which is why I said I disagree with fly.

We’ve added 2 players thus far, Houston and Perryman. Seems likely we’ll also add Membrey. Neither Perryman or Membrey cost us anything in terms of draft capital. Are you suggesting Houston is a middle of the road role player?

 

[Mollythedolly]

Call it the James Dean effect. We could be forever young

Getting players to mainline telephone posts in very expensive sports cars might be prohibitively expensive.

 

[76woodenspooners]

What would you have done that would have given us a better chance of staying up?

Of course a Richmond style drop is a possibility - for every team in contention (although the academy teams are somewhat future proofed in terms of talent), but if you don't think that a Richmond like drop is a possibility and actually more likely with a draft strategy, then you're the delusional one. A draft strategy would have given us way less chance of success over the next two years and made it much more likely that we'd plummet with our impending retirements.

The AFL engineer the competition so that those teams that are successful (like us recently) are a strong likelihood of dropping off in future years. And if that’s not happening, then the AFL will consider how to make it happen as per the recent competitive review.

Of course some clubs are able to buck the trend a little. Such as Geelong generally staying up. And Carlton generally staying down. And they’re able to do that through the quality of their off-field club leadership. Or lack of as the case may be.

Looking at our off-field leadership …

• President (Browne) - stepping down (After December we’ll have had 4 Presidents in the last 4 years)
• Board - significant turnover 3 years ago, standard attrition now. After December, we’ll only have 2 members of 7 who have been on it for longer than 3 years (Sizer and Licuria) so it won’t be a particularly experienced board.
• CEO (Kelly) - been with us 2 years. Some folks are concerned about him (me included)
• Footy Boss - we don’t have one. Our last one effectively left 8 months ago, and was a bloody good one but he’s now gone off to fill a different role at our greatest competitor.
• Senior Coach (Fly) - we have amongst the best in the league IMO, and doubt many here would currently argue against that. Hasn’t made a commitment to stay long term, and if anything has implied the contrary. If we do drop off I could easily imagine that us nuffies will have the knives out for him.
• Fitness boss (Wade) - best we’ve had since 2011, and doubt many here would argue against that.
• List Manager (Leppa) - very new to the role. Our last one was our footy boss who left. The one before that was contentious (Surname: Guy, Firstname: Fall)
• Talent Identification Boss (Hine) - A lot of folks here seem to complain about his inability to draft gun KPF’s with second round picks. Would imagine he’s approaching the end of his tenure?

I love sitting in the crowd cheering my little lungs out for Collingwood …

… but let’s be realistic, that leadership doesn’t currently look like the most stable to steer us through the challenging times ahead, does it?

That can all change of course. It’ll be interesting times.

 

[76woodenspooners]

For context for how much things can change in 5 years …

… having a look at where we were 5 years ago:

2019 - We lost a low scoring Prelim, CFC 52 v GWS 56. GWS went on to get thumped by Richmond in the GF.

Our Prelim final team included:
Noble - left 5 years later
Roughead - retired
Howe - still on our list and still performing OK
Crisp - the Eveready bunny
Moore - Still going, didn’t have his best season in 2024
Maynard - Still solid
Phillips - member of the great salary cap purge at the end of 2020
Pendlebury - now 400+ games
Sidebottom - still going
Thomas - retired
Mihocek - still going
WHE - still going
Elliott - Still going
Reid - retired
Stephenson - member of the great salary cap purge at the end of 2020
Grundy - Traded. (Nobody at the end of 2019 would have seen that coming)
Treloar - member of the great salary cap purge at the end of 2020
Adams - would last another 4 years and then get traded.
Aish - traded
Mayne - retired
C.Brown - delisted
R.Wills - delisted

Other players on our 2019 list
JDG - still going around. Great X-Factor but not very durable.
Wells - retired
Goldsack - retired
Langdon - retired
Murray - delisted
Beams - retired
Scharenberg - delisted
Dunn - retired
Varcoe - retired
Greenwood - retired
j.Daicos - still on list
Kelly - delisted
Murphy - medically retired
Broomhead - delisted
Appleby - delisted
T.Brown - delisted
Quaynor - still on list
Sier - delisted
Crocker - delisted
Bosenavulagi - traded
Tohill - retired
Madgen - delisted
Max Lynch - traded (later medically retired)
Cox - still on list
Keane - retired then came back to the comp (crows)
Wilson - delisted

I count 13 players who are still on our list from 5 years ago.

Which 13 players on our list today could I most imagine being on our list in 5 years?
N.Daicos (contracted)
J.Daicos (contracted)
Perryman (contracted)
Houston (contracted)
Quaynor
McCreery
Hill
Lipinski
Maynard (will be 33, is durable)
Allan
Harrison
Parker
Moore (will be 33, less durable)

Conclusion: Our list profile in 2019 doesn’t look to be a whole lot different to what it does today.

 

[sr36]

The AFL engineer the competition so that those teams that are successful (like us recently) are a strong likelihood of dropping off in future years. And if that’s not happening, then the AFL will consider how to make it happen as per the recent competitive review.

Of course some clubs are able to buck the trend a little. Such as Geelong generally staying up. And Carlton generally staying down. And they’re able to do that through the quality of their off-field club leadership. Or lack of as the case may be.

Looking at our off-field leadership …

• President (Browne) - stepping down (After December we’ll have had 4 Presidents in the last 4 years)
• Board - significant turnover 3 years ago, standard attrition now. After December, we’ll only have 2 members of 7 who have been on it for longer than 3 years (Sizer and Licuria) so it won’t be a particularly experienced board.
• CEO (Kelly) - been with us 2 years. Some folks are concerned about him (me included)
• Footy Boss - we don’t have one. Our last one effectively left 8 months ago, and was a bloody good one but he’s now gone off to fill a different role at our greatest competitor.
• Senior Coach (Fly) - we have amongst the best in the league IMO, and doubt many here would currently argue against that. Hasn’t made a commitment to stay long term, and if anything has implied the contrary. If we do drop off I could easily imagine that us nuffies will have the knives out for him.
• Fitness boss (Wade) - best we’ve had since 2011, and doubt many here would argue against that.
• List Manager (Leppa) - very new to the role. Our last one was our footy boss who left. The one before that was contentious (Surname: Guy, Firstname: Fall)
• Talent Identification Boss (Hine) - A lot of folks here seem to complain about his inability to draft gun KPF’s with second round picks. Would imagine he’s approaching the end of his tenure?

I love sitting in the crowd cheering my little lungs out for Collingwood …

… but let’s be realistic, that leadership doesn’t currently look like the most stable to steer us through the challenging times ahead, does it?

That can all change of course. It’ll be interesting times.

You give a lot more credit to those above the coaches than I do. Players and coaches win games of footy. And the footy boss and above are ultimately safeguards to stop the heads below them stuffing up.

To me the primary reason why the Cats stayed up after their flags is that they already had what teams get at the draft before they start their ascent - a couple of young stars in Selwood and Hawkins.

Secondary reason was their location gives them a recruiting advantage.

Third reason was they're very well coached.

4th reason - a strategy to stay up.

I think we've got the same conditions.

You don't plan to hit the bottom if you've got Nick Daicos. You might plan to hit the bottom if you don't.