COLLINGWOOD. NEXT 5 YEARS?

[sr36]

Right, so the debate then becomes when does the drop come? And by drop, I mean no longer in contention for a premiership. I suggest it's 2026. Others suggest that's not the case in the modern system of trade/draft.

But I think the assessment has to be made in the context of competitors, and I have Gold Coast, GWS, Carlton (uhgggg), Fremantle, Brisbane, all with lists that will be much better than ours by 2026. Then the next wave, Hawthorn (maybe even by next year), Richmond, North, by 2027.

Then there's the issue that Tassie are coming in and it'll be hard to do a Richmond rebuild at that point.

Of course we'll drop out of contention at some stage and of course some other teams will rise. Might be players or Fly's fundamentals might become outdated with him not adapting enough.

When that happens is a guess. But over the last 3 trade periods we've added Hill, McStay, Houston, Schultz and Perryman as quality medium term players and a couple of short term quality in Mitchell and hopefully Membrey. If we keep that up, with the odd kid coming through it won't be the players that are the issue any time soon.

 

[Finnishpie]

Of course we'll drop out of contention at some stage and of course some other teams will rise. Might be players or Fly's fundamentals might become outdated with him not adapting enough.

When that happens is a guess. But over the last 3 trade periods we've added Hill, McStay, Houston, Schultz and Perryman as quality medium term players and a couple of short term quality in Mitchell and hopefully Membrey. If we keep that up, with the odd kid coming through it won't be the players that are the issue any time soon.

"If we keep that up, with the odd kid coming through it won't be the players that are the issue any time soon."

And that's the debate. I think it will be the issue. But as you say, we're making calculated guesses. I just follow Gold Coast, GWS, Carlton (out of hatred), fairly closely, so I think looking at them, we face an uphill battle after next year. We can top up, but risk the Richmond (with Taranto and Hopper) scenario, or earlier with North when they were hovering around the bottom of the eight.

 

[sr36]

"If we keep that up, with the odd kid coming through it won't be the players that are the issue any time soon."

And that's the debate. I think it will be the issue. But as you say, we're making calculated guesses. I just follow Gold Coast, GWS, Carlton (out of hatred), fairly closely, so I think looking at them, we face an uphill battle after next year. We can top up, but risk the Richmond (with Taranto and Hopper) scenario, or earlier with North when they were hovering around the bottom of the eight.

The thing is if you do worry about the other clubs like you do - take a look at the GC situation. How can you match the talent they'll get coming through the draft when they're going to continue to get top academy kids more often than not through the draft? If you try to compete with them through the draft - they're going to win big time in the end, as will the other academy teams. Got to try to work our advantages - and it's that players want to play in big games at the G. Work that angle as hard as the Cats work their farms and beaches.

 

[Aussie pie]

Talent Identification Boss (Hine) - A lot of folks here seem to complain about his inability to draft gun KPF’s with second round picks. Would imagine he’s approaching the end of his tenure?

He doesn’t draft any KPF with any picks gun or otherwise that’s the problem.

 

[76woodenspooners]

He doesn’t draft any KPF with any picks gun or otherwise that’s the problem.

Nah. He does draft them.

They just don’t turn out to be successful, so people forget they ever existed. These KPF draftees have been on our list in the last 10 years …

McMahon (2nd round)
Kelly (2nd round)
McLarty (2nd round)
Gault (later round)

(LOL, I reckon you and I have this conversation every 6 months)

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Nah. He does draft them.

They just don’t turn out to be successful, so people forget they ever existed. These KPF draftees have been on our list in the last 10 years …

McMahon (2nd round)
Kelly (2nd round)
McLarty (2nd round)
Gault (later round)

(LOL, I reckon you and I have this conversation every 6 months)

He's drafted 10 in 20 years. I literally just counted for an earlier post.

That's just not enough. They have a low rate of success so you have to take more of them.

It's not like he's picking up nothing but winners in the national draft. He picked Trent Stubbs, Luke Rounds and Cooper Murley in the National Draft. Taking punts on any tall makes more sense than drafting those crabs.

 

[Aussie pie]

Nah. He does draft them.

They just don’t turn out to be successful, so people forget they ever existed. These KPF draftees have been on our list in the last 10 years …

McMahon (2nd round)
Kelly (2nd round)
McLarty (2nd round)
Gault (later round)

(LOL, I reckon you and I have this conversation every 6 months)

lol yep you’re probably right on that one. At least we can agree on one thing that there’s no guns, although McMahon has proven to be half decent in the VFL.

Bye, let’s chat after the draft.

 

[76woodenspooners]

He's drafted 10 in 20 years. I literally just counted for an earlier post.

That's just not enough. They have a low rate of success so you have to take more of them.

It's not like he's picking up nothing but winners in the national draft. He picked Trent Stubbs, Luke Rounds and Cooper Murley in the National Draft. Taking punts on any tall makes more sense than drafting those crabs.

We’ve had a lot of bad luck with our tall forwards lately …

• Ash Johnson fell off a cliff moments after signing a two year contract extension
• After missing much of the 2023 season with injury, Dan McStay does his ACL in the first week of last year’s pre-season
• Reef McInnis hasn’t progressed as much as everyone had hoped for.
• Oli Henry left after 2 years.
• Mihocek who has been super durable has now been missing significant parts of the season due to injury. (Only played 11 games this year)
• Krueger had a shocking run of injuries.

We’ve been carrying 5 tall forwards on our list. (I guess next year Krueger’s spot gets replaced by Membrey). Six if you include the resting ruck. Dunno if we can reasonably justify too many more than that?

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

We’ve had a lot of bad luck with our tall forwards lately …

• Ash Johnson fell off a cliff moments after signing a two year contract extension
• After missing much of the 2023 season with injury, Dan McStay does his ACL in the first week of last year’s pre-season
• Reef McInnis hasn’t progressed as much as everyone had hoped for.
• Oli Henry left after 2 years.
• Mihocek who has been super durable has now been missing significant parts of the season due to injury.
• Krueger had a shocking run of injuries.

We’ve been carrying 5 tall forwards on our list. (I guess next year Krueger’s spot gets replaced by Membrey). Six if you include the resting ruck. Dunno if we can reasonably justify too many more than that?

You can't afford not to be developing young talls. It's by far the cheapest way to get them and they take time. Keeping absolute potatoes like Kreuger and Johnson on the list take up space for KPFs with actual developmental potential

 

[76woodenspooners]

You can't afford not to be developing young talls. It's by far the cheapest way to get them and they take time. Keeping absolute potatoes like Kreuger and Johnson on the list take up space for KPFs with actual developmental potential

How do you define “development potential”?

Wouldn’t a tall forward who kicks 15 goals in his first 7 senior games be showing “development potential”? (That’s what Ash did)

We’ve spent a tonne of time developing young talls. Cory Gault got 5 years. Wil Kelly got 5 years. Reef is getting 5 years.

Those three players played 31 games between them.

I know people scoff at those players getting so long and going nowhere …

… but suspect amongst them would be people complaining that we cut McMahon after only 2 years!

 

[The Phantom]

You are better off expounding your bullshit around board governance.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

walks into room, hits person across the back of head with novelty fake wood chair made of polystyrene, exits room

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

How do you define “development potential”?

Wouldn’t a tall forward who kicks 15 goals in his first 7 senior games be showing “development potential”? (That’s what Ash did)

We’ve spent a tonne of time developing young talls. Cory Gault got 5 years. Wil Kelly got 5 years. Reef is getting 5 years.

Those three players played 31 games between them.

I know people scoff at those players getting so long and going nowhere …

… but suspect amongst them would be people complaining that we cut McMahon after only 2 years!

"Not being born in the 1990s" would be the definition of having development potential. Ash Johnson was almost 24 when we drafted him and is 27 now. He was never going to be a lot better than he was at that point in time, and surprise surprise he didn't develop at all, going backwards if anything.

The point isn't giving talls a million years to get it right even if they're spuds, it's about continuing to devote places on the list to developing talls, and cutting the ones that suck in favour of taking another swing.

I don't care that we delisted Liam McMahon, I care that we didn't draft another key position player to develop in his place. McMahon was STILL the most recent KP player we took in the National Draft.

 

[gouki88]

"Not being born in the 1990s" would be the definition of having development potential. Ash Johnson was almost 24 when we drafted him and is 27 now. He was never going to be a lot better than he was at that point in time, and surprise surprise he didn't develop at all, going backwards if anything.

The point isn't giving talls a million years to get it right even if they're spuds, it's about continuing to devote places on the list to developing talls, and cutting the ones that suck in favour of taking another swing.

I don't care that we delisted Liam McMahon, I care that we didn't draft another key position player to develop in his place. McMahon was STILL the most recent KP player we took in the National Draft.

Are you saying I'll never make the League Vinnie?

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Are you saying I'll never make the League Vinnie?

No, but I have a chance, because I wasn't born in the 1990s

 

[sr36]

You can't afford not to be developing young talls. It's by far the cheapest way to get them and they take time. Keeping absolute potatoes like Kreuger and Johnson on the list take up space for KPFs with actual developmental potential

It's the cheapest way to get them, when they develop.

But the reality is you would have to expect to pay overs for them at the draft with more misses if you move away from a best avaialable draft policy to a talls preference policy. And if you're not willing to do that - like us - you won't draft them, as teams do pay overs for them.

So you're either losing in terms of trade capital, FA salary cap or at the draft. You're overpaying somewhere to get talls. Personally, I'd be overpaying in trade or salary cap - if confident that I could poach them.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

It's the cheapest way to get them, when they develop.

But the reality is you would have to expect to pay overs for them at the draft with more misses if you move away from a best avaialable draft policy to a talls preference policy. And if you're not willing to do that - like us - you won't draft them, as teams do pay overs for them.

So you're either losing in terms of trade capital, FA salary cap or at the draft. You're overpaying somewhere to get talls. Personally, I'd be overpaying in trade or salary cap - if confident that I could poach them.

Considering we're the only team that simply refuses to ever take KPPs in the National Draft, one would think that 17/18 clubs feel that it's a worthwhile area to expend draft capital and list spots on, and we're off doing our own thing, and being crippled by any given injury to a tall player because we have absolutely no depth in the area.

We're in something like year 30+ of not being able to poach quality talls. If not for familial relations we barely would have had a decent KPP in decades. Chris Tarrant is the only KPP AA we've had in 30+ years that wasn't a Father-Son.

We're not just below the odds, we're laughably bad at this, and steadfastly refuse to alter the approach.

I look forward to using picks on the next Matthew Goodyear and Daniel Farmer because they're simply too good to pass up - It's not like we're not wasting ND picks on absolutely useless players anyway. I'm just saying that we should devote that spot on our list that has an almost 0% chance of making it because of major flaws in their game exclusively to players over 193cm tall.

 

[sr36]

Considering we're the only team that simply refuses to ever take KPPs in the National Draft, one would think that 17/18 clubs feel that it's a worthwhile area to expend draft capital and list spots on, and we're off doing our own thing, and being crippled by any given injury to a tall player because we have absolutely no depth in the area.

Of course it's a worthwhile area, but if your philosophy is best available, you're rarely going to draft them, because clubs pay overs for them. So you essentially have to pay ovrs for them if you want to draft them - we've chosen not to pay overs and stick to best available and have put together a decent group of talls through other means than early picks

Other teams having depth in the area is a myth. Most other teams being really strong in terms of KPP is also a myth.

Going into 2025, how many teams are actually stronger than us for talls?

Off the top of my head: Carlton,GWS, Dogs - probably Freo - that's about it. And there's a lot that we're stronger than in terms of talls.

I think you could make a case that our approach isn't backwards but forward as there's a steady decline in kpps being taken at the pointy end of the draft and Carlton is the only club who've risen off the back of first round drafted talls.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Going into 2025, how many teams are actually stronger than us for talls?

Off the top of my head: Carlton,GWS, Dogs - probably Freo - that's about it. And there's a lot that we're stronger than in terms of talls.

We have three actual AFL standard key position players and the youngest of them will be 29 by Rd 1.

Your suggestion that only three/four teams are better off than us in terms of KPPs is laughable.

 

[ZEV]

.

We're in something like year 30+ of not being able to poach quality talls. If not for familial relations we barely would have had a decent KPP in decades. Chris Tarrant is the only KPP AA we've had in 30+ years that wasn't a Father-Son.

Ben Reid….

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Ben Reid….

Yep, you're right, I missed Reidy - The one AA selection by a tall Derek Hine actually had to decide to pick.

 

[sr36]

We have three actual AFL standard key position players and the youngest of them will be 29 by Rd 1.

Your suggestion that only three/four teams are better off than us in terms of KPPs is laughable.

If you're not going to include guys like Howe for us or MacGovern for them, Carlton - with arguably the strongest KPP set up in the comp, only have 3 too. That's standard.

But yeah, I think Moore Howe, Cameron, Cox, McStay and Checkers give us one of the stronger aerial groups in the league if they're fit.

Stronger than Sydney, what Brisbane will have, Melbourne despite not being as strong in the back half, Essendon, Port, etc ...

Getting them on the park is the issue, but even Carlton will be playing SOS jr at chf with an injury (does he still play) and god knows who in defence if Weitering gets injured.

 

[76woodenspooners]

"Not being born in the 1990s" would be the definition of having development potential. Ash Johnson was almost 24 when we drafted him and is 27 now. He was never going to be a lot better than he was at that point in time, and surprise surprise he didn't develop at all, going backwards if anything.

Ash was similar age as Mihocek when we drafted him, and Mihocek has turned out OK?

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Ash was similar age as Mihocek when we drafted him, and Mihocek has turned out OK?

Mihocek was already good and stayed good. Ash Johnson despite being better than he is right now, was never really good enough, and obviously hasn't improved.

Hoping for improvement from a 27 year old is a fool's errand.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

If you're not going to include guys like Howe for us or MacGovern for them, Carlton - with arguably the strongest KPP set up in the comp, only have 3 too. That's standard.

Yes, but Carlton's three are way better than our three, as charitable as you want to be to our guys. Weitering was AA this year and Curnow and McKay have three Coleman's between them.

But yeah, I think Moore Howe, Cameron, Cox, McStay and Checkers give us one of the stronger aerial groups in the league if they're fit.

I'm not including Howe or the rucks because they're not key position players and you're aware of that.

Stronger than Sydney, what Brisbane will have, Melbourne despite not being as strong in the back half, Essendon, Port, etc ...

I feel like you're extremely focused on "on-field for 2025 alone" when I'm talking about taking 18 year olds in the draft and developing them for the future, so you have to compare apples with apples, so teams like Gold Coast (Walter/Andrew) and GWS (Cadman) makes an enormous difference.

Even if we compete this year with the group we have, we're in a dramatically worse position with our list than more than half the list in terms of actual key position players that aren't rucks or surprisingly good marking flankers.

We need to improve the tall talent position on our list. Even if we've got an old group that we can get by with for now.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Mihocek was already good and stayed good. Ash Johnson despite being better than he is right now, was never really good enough, and obviously hasn't improved.

Yeah, there were question marks over Johnson when we drafted him and he was learning in the VFL. IIRC he missed a lot of footy with a broken arm so he was forgotten about a bit for a while.

But when he started playing, nobody was lamenting “Gee, wish we had more developing KPF’s on the list”

Back then we would have had Kelly who people were starting to have doubts about, McMahon who didn’t really have a lot of focus on him and McInnis who everybody was very excited about his prospects. Mihocek was solid, and Ash was showing glimpses of what he was capable of.