List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion 2022--> PART 2

[Quicky]

I asked him how tall he was after I saw him at an aflw game, and he said 6”6which I looked it up and it said 198cm, near enough to 199cm. Both hine and his manager mentioned he had grown over the summer too. Looks like mighty tall standing next to him


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Sounds like Begg rounded up. If 6"6 is 198cm why did you say 199cm?

 

[Quicky]

So now you don’t agree lack of opportunity was the issue?
Either way, his pinching fwd is not a true assessment of his abilities or potential.

This is interesting because it relates to what roles Begg might play. Ruck. Ruck/Fwd. Fwd/Ruck. KPF. KPD.

I recall you saying he won't be a number one ruck earlier. If he doesn't, forward craft is important for 3 of those other 4 roles.

I think Ruck > KPD are his best chances in that order. At Collingwood anyway, i'd have chosen KPD if we played a different defensive structure.

Ruck if his leap can make up for his height deficit (by ruck role) and he can avg >20ho at AFL level. A big development leap but bigs take longer.

If he was a tall lockdown key defender I think he'd be great with his height, athleticisn, attitude and competitiveness. But he doesn't read the flight, intercept or mark well enough in the kind of zone defense we use.

 

[Jen2310]

Sounds like Begg rounded up. If 6"6 is 198cm why did you say 199cm?

Because I don't know the exact dimensions, and I meant near abouts to 199 , which it would be. Not like there is much a difference. And who knows if he grew since then.
McMahon grew from 197 to 198cm in the last year

 

[Jen2310]

queation -- what does secondary bidding mean?
"The nomination is the first official step for the Bombers to select both of the brothers, with the secondary bidding nomination to be lodged with the AFL by November 21."

 

[sr36]

No offence Jen but the difference between a 197 cm man and a 199cm man is about 1%. If you can pick that change just by the eye you have mighty sensitive vision. Likewise the throwaway line Hine used after Begg was at the club that he walked past him in the club and reckoned he had grown since he arrived has no substance. Its just too small a difference to tell with out accurate reproducible measures using proper equipment. Hine like you just wanted it to be true.

So you agree that he's got to be more like 205cm.

I mean they wouldn't have noticed the difference if it was only a couple of centimetres growth, so seeing they noticed the diference, he most have grown to at aleast 205cm.

 

[Gone Critical]

Because I don't know the exact dimensions, and I meant near abouts to 199 , which it would be. Not like there is much a difference. And who knows if he grew since then.
McMahon grew from 197 to 198cm in the last year

McMahon didnt grow a cm in the last year. If he had it would have been the end of his puberty growth spurt and his rate of growth would have slowed right down as his growth plates in the long bones fused. If he had grown a cm in the last year it means he would have grown quite a few cms in the year before, 2021, his 1st year at the club. Rate of growth slows as full height is reached, so 1 cm in 2022 means multiple cms height gain in 2021, cant be any other way. However a club can easily have a cm or 2 or more!!! in variation in height measurements of the same fully grown person. 1 cm at 198cm is essentially 0.5% variation, easy accounted for.

McMahon turned 20 this year which even for late puberty boys would be extremely late to still put on height. Didnt happen. Again to reiterate, most girls reach full height between 14 and 15 years, so no growth spurts in the AFLW and boys 16 years so very few growth spurts in the AFL and only in their 1st year at the club.

 

[magpies42]

He has athleticism and a desire for the contest so maybe could be that follower type ruckman. But he is about the smallest ruck going around, doesn't mark (9 marks in total for his 12 VFL games in 2022) and kicked no score of anytype in 15 AFL/VFL games in 2022. To be his size as a ruck he needs some elite aspect to his game like a Ryder had marking and forwardcraft. He doesn't have those tools.

A negating, lock down athletic KPB seems his most likley spot if he could learn to compete in the air as a spoiler. He is an attractive player because he is attacking and athletic but 197 cm rucks need tools and he doesnt have any. I agree he will be on the delist look this year. No surprise because 2nd round MSD is always a long shot. Our MSD record recently is astounding, Noble, Carmichael and Johnson. If Begg got up as well would become miraculous. You aint meant to have so may from the MSD, would be fantastic if we did

Can he kick? That is a pre requisite for playing in the backline these days…one season is not much for a developing kid of that size.

 

[manicpie]

He spent time up forward both in the VFL and AFL and showed nothing whilst there.

He played probably 2 or 3 games that he was tried up forward, he's like a giant ruck rover, his attributes are as a follower

 

[manicpie]

McMahon didnt grow a cm in the last year. If he had it would have been the end of his puberty growth spurt and his rate of growth would have slowed right down as his growth plates in the long bones fused. If he had grown a cm in the last year it means he would have grown quite a few cms in the year before, 2021, his 1st year at the club. Rate of growth slows as full height is reached, so 1 cm in 2022 means multiple cms height gain in 2021, cant be any other way. However a club can easily have a cm or 2 or more!!! in variation in height measurements of the same fully grown person. 1 cm at 198cm is essentially 0.5% variation, easy accounted for.

McMahon turned 20 this year which even for late puberty boys would be extremely late to still put on height. Didnt happen. Again to reiterate, most girls reach full height between 14 and 15 years, so no growth spurts in the AFLW and boys 16 years so very few growth spurts in the AFL and only in their 1st year at the club.

There are always exceptions to the rules and probably quite a few.
"In general, boys tend to stop growing around the age of 16. Many factors can affect growth and, ultimately, height. These include environmental factors as well as genetics, nutrition, and physical activity levels." You are giving stats for the average kid. Putting these kids into an elite training program like the AFL will have different results to the non sporting kids

 

[Gone Critical]

There are always exceptions to the rules and probably quite a few.
"In general, boys tend to stop growing around the age of 16. Many factors can affect growth and, ultimately, height. These include environmental factors as well as genetics, nutrition, and physical activity levels." You are giving stats for the average kid. Putting these kids into an elite training program like the AFL will have different results to the non sporting kids

Its true that environmental factors affect height and we have seen real changes in height generationally in the last 100 years +. Its also very true there will be exceptions and I have previously listed well known AFL ones, Cripps, Callaghan, Darcy. It doesnt change the basic physiology though. This is an area of professional expertise for me so I actually know what I am talking about.

To understand it comparing Cripps to McMahon is a good comparison. I dont know when MaMahon shot up but he was listed around 196 cm in his draft info when arriving at the club. An earlier article in draft central leading up to the draft had him 194cm, probably a measure from early in his U18 year. Look at his U18 photos, he is sporting a dirty little tash already, he is lanky but has clear post pubertal muscle definition and prominent dark leg hair that came as he went through puberty. That information alone tells you in his U18 year before he arrived at the club his growth was near complete at a minimum. He may have put on a cm or 2 in his U 18 year and maybe even maybe a cm in his first few months at the club. More likely a small ariation of a cm or 2 since arrival at the club reallt reflects the variation in different measuring equipment, callibrationof that equipment and variance in technique of measure.

Cripps however did really grow in height his first few months at the club but not after. Once his growth plates fused, thats it , no more height, but he was very late to that party, happende a bit after his 18th birthday. Remember also he was the runt of his team when he was 15. He looked like a boy among young men because he was, almost everyone on the field were well into their puberty growth spurt and some would already be full height and he hadn't even started. I could go through all the other bodily changes that the other players would have gone through already but Cripps hadnt started but if they had stood in the showers after a game the differences would have been very obvious.

When he turned 16, when most boys are done Cripps takes off , 20 cm in 2 years and in the U18s has become a physical brute in the midfield. Finally he is going through puberty. Cal Twomeys draft article lists him at 192cm. Also the interview that is taped there Cripps still has a boys face, no dirty tash possible when he walks through the Carlton doors. He does get those last 3cm in the next few months after arriving and then his growth plates fused and his height was complete.

So we can say with 100% certainty Liam McMahon didnt grow a cm in his second year at the club, just variance in measure techniques and perhaps honesty.

Conclusion - sr36 is right, based on the last sentence Begg is still likely to reach 205 cm in the next few seasons but only possible if he remains on the list.

 

[sr36]

Its true that environmental factors affect height and we have seen real changes in height generationally in the last 100 years +. Its also very true there will be exceptions and I have previously listed well known AFL ones, Cripps, Callaghan, Darcy. It doesnt change the basic physiology though. This is an area of professional expertise for me so I actually know what I am talking about.

To understand it comparing Cripps to McMahon is a good comparison. I dont know when MaMahon shot up but he was listed around 196 cm in his draft info when arriving at the club. An earlier article in draft central leading up to the draft had him 194cm, probably a measure from early in his U18 year. Look at his U18 photos, he is sporting a dirty little tash already, he is lanky but has clear post pubertal muscle definition and prominent dark leg hair that came as he went through puberty. That information alone tells you in his U18 year before he arrived at the club his growth was near complete at a minimum. He may have put on a cm or 2 in his U 18 year and maybe even maybe a cm in his first few months at the club. More likely a small ariation of a cm or 2 since arrival at the club reallt reflects the variation in different measuring equipment, callibrationof that equipment and variance in technique of measure.

Cripps however did really grow in height his first few months at the club but not after. Once his growth plates fused, thats it , no more height, but he was very late to that party, happende a bit after his 18th birthday. Remember also he was the runt of his team when he was 15. He looked like a boy among young men because he was, almost everyone on the field were well into their puberty growth spurt and some would already be full height and he hadn't even started. I could go through all the other bodily changes that the other players would have gone through already but Cripps hadnt started but if they had stood in the showers after a game the differences would have been very obvious.

When he turned 16, when most boys are done Cripps takes off , 20 cm in 2 years and in the U18s has become a physical brute in the midfield. Finally he is going through puberty. Cal Twomeys draft article lists him at 192cm. Also the interview that is taped there Cripps still has a boys face, no dirty tash possible when he walks through the Carlton doors. He does get those last 3cm in the next few months after arriving and then his growth plates fused and his height was complete.

So we can say with 100% certainty Liam McMahon didnt grow a cm in his second year at the club, just variance in measure techniques and perhaps honesty.

Conclusion - sr36 is right, based on the last sentence Begg is still likely to reach 205 cm in the next few seasons but only possible if he remains on the list.

And when we factor in the unknown long term effects of both COVID and mRNA vaccines, his current height of 205cm may just be the beginning.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

I think they'd love to have Grundy on $400,000 a year.

I was thinking of Begg not so much Grundy. It's early days, but he's not yet overburdened with redeeming features. Hopefully, it'll all come flowing in for him as he soaks up the teaching and training and sharpens his mindset, becomes more discerning with his friends and less so with his enemies. 'Catch!' they'll cry, and two skinny hands will endeavour to pluck the ball from the air. He is a repository of our hope.

 

[Kappa]

I was thinking of Begg not so much Grundy. It's early days, but he's not yet overburdened with redeeming features. Hopefully, it'll all come flowing in for him as he soaks up the teaching and training and sharpens his mindset, becomes more discerning with his friends and less so with his enemies. 'Catch!' they'll cry, and two skinny hands will endeavour to pluck the ball from the air. He is a repository of our hope.

And a suppository of wisdom.

 

[No SPIN]

Think about different phases of play. Ruck. Ground level contest. Open play. Aerial contest. Begg only gets involved in the ground level contest at the moment. He has a lot to work on in those other phases.

I'm not questioning he has some positive playing qualities including his attitude, competitiveness (really important imo) and athleticism. Equally he doesn't find the ball enough in open play and is a poor mark.

There's enough uncertainty there to debate his best role and question his chances.

There’s also enough certainty about his potential to outweigh any “questioning of his chances”.

 

[No SPIN]

This is interesting because it relates to what roles Begg might play. Ruck. Ruck/Fwd. Fwd/Ruck. KPF. KPD.

I recall you saying he won't be a number one ruck earlier. If he doesn't, forward craft is important for 3 of those other 4 roles.

I think Ruck > KPD are his best chances in that order. At Collingwood anyway, i'd have chosen KPD if we played a different defensive structure.

Ruck if his leap can make up for his height deficit (by ruck role) and he can avg >20ho at AFL level. A big development leap but bigs take longer.

If he was a tall lockdown key defender I think he'd be great with his height, athleticisn, attitude and competitiveness. But he doesn't read the flight, intercept or mark well enough in the kind of zone defense we use.

I think delisting McMahon probably is instructive of where Begg fits.
And I’m a fan of McMahon and disappointed to see him cut.

 

[sr36]

He played probably 2 or 3 games that he was tried up forward, he's like a giant ruck rover, his attributes are as a follower

Yep. And you can teach ruck craft. A 197 cm competitive kid with a big leap might become ok in the ruck. Whereas, I'm not convinced they can teach reading the ball flight. It's the one area where I don't think you see that much improvement in an AFL program. And you can't play kpd without being good at it. Get him on a program to bulk up yet maintain a leap and see what happens.

 

[manicpie]

Yep. And you can teach ruck craft. A 197 cm competitive kid with a big leap might become ok in the ruck. Whereas, I'm not convinced they can teach reading the ball flight. It's the one area where I don't think you see that much improvement in an AFL program. And you can't play kpd without being good at it. Get him on a program to bulk up yet maintain a leap and see what happens.

That would be pretty close to the plan going forward I reckon.

 

[Kappa]

I think delisting McMahon probably is instructive of where Begg fits.
And I’m a fan of McMahon and disappointed to see him cut.

Is there anyone on the list you're not a fan of?

 

[Apex36]

Is there anyone on the list you're not a fan of?

Will Kelly iirc

 

[magpies42]

Think about different phases of play. Ruck. Ground level contest. Open play. Aerial contest. Begg only gets involved in the ground level contest at the moment. He has a lot to work on in those other phases.

I'm not questioning he has some positive playing qualities including his attitude, competitiveness (really important imo) and athleticism. Equally he doesn't find the ball enough in open play and is a poor mark.

There's enough uncertainty there to debate his best role and question his chances.

He’s not 30, but 19…trust the coaches they will be best placed to determine prospects.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

So you agree that he's got to be more like 205cm.

I mean they wouldn't have noticed the difference if it was only a couple of centimetres growth, so seeing they noticed the diference, he most have grown to at aleast 205cm.

He walked past me at a game late last year and I thought he looked shorter than advertised, and I’m 190cm-ish, so he’s currently plummeting down the tape measure. Could be 172cm by January.

 

[sr36]

He walked past me at a game late last year and I thought he looked shorter than advertised, and I’m 190cm-ish, so he’s currently plummeting down the tape measure. Could be 172cm by January.

Are you sure that he walked past you and not the other way around? As he tends to be shorter than 205cm when he's sitting down.

 

[Quicky]

There’s also enough certainty about his potential to outweigh any “questioning of his chances”.

It's okay to have a different opinion. I'm not sure why thats causing you angst. It's a forum.

 

[Quicky]

I think delisting McMahon probably is instructive of where Begg fits.
And I’m a fan of McMahon and disappointed to see him cut.

You reckon he'll be developed as a defender? McMahon was an ordinary VFL level footballer. I was criticised for saying it earlier in the year also. Begg has more going for him though imo.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Are you sure that he walked past you and not the other way around? As he tends to be shorter than 205cm when he's sitting down.

Good point actually, he was only moving slowly but I was ushering my youngest to the bathroom and moving quite quickly, so it could be said that I walked past him.