List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion 2023

[Scodog10]

Two firsts and steak knives would be likely, probably a Macrae type. No team is giving away two firsts and a borderline AA 40 player in a trade, that’s insanity.

Might need to revise that because he’s probably in the 22 right now. I realise you didn’t raise him, but we’ll ignore that he’d be on our untouchable list for a sec. I’d be wary of throwing much on top in a straight Naughton for IQ deal.

 

[Quicky]

If we were lucky enough to trade in Naughton I prefer him forward.

 

[Maison]

Anyone think we'll go down the road on topping up with an occasional veteran for several years to remain in the hunt?

Only thinking Players like a fit Elliott Yeo would be devastating player in our team. Hopefully more Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

than Gunston

 

[Eric Shin]

Anyone think we'll go down the road on topping up with an occasional veteran for several years to remain in the hunt?

Only thinking Players like a fit Elliott Yeo would be devastating player in our team. Hopefully more Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

than Gunston

Considering Wright was Hawthorn’s list manager during their dynasty, me thinks yes.

Don’t trust Yeo’s body though.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[3rdMan]

Two firsts and steak knives would be likely, probably a Macrae type. No team is giving away two firsts and a borderline AA 40 player in a trade, that’s insanity.

He'd cost a lot. Two firsts and Macrae definitely won't get it done. The firsts would project as late. This year's basically a second rounder. Minimum deal would be two firsts and a best 22 player I reckon. Macrae has little value. Even if he has potential lack of AFL games puts a cap on his worth.

 

[Jen2310]

He'd cost a lot. Two firsts and Macrae definitely won't get it done. The firsts would project as late. This year's basically a second rounder. Minimum deal would be two firsts and a best 22 player I reckon. Macrae has little value. Even if he has potential lack of AFL games puts a cap on his worth.

similar to the dunkley deal you imagine.
"Brisbane get: Josh Dunkley, future third-round pick, future fourth-round pick (tied to Melbourne) Bulldogs get: Pick 21, future first-round pick, future second-round pick, future fourth-round pick (tied to Geelong)"

 

[Kappa]

Where are you getting it from? An article that says it’s “reportedly” x amount of $$? Don’t pretend you have any more idea than the rest of us.

You’re the one who said we have no player over 800k, not me. So I’m wondering where you got that information? The only article I can see on it says that’s not true

 

[swoop42]

Dunkley was out of contract so the Dogs reluctantly accepted less than market worth. Not all first round selections are created equal as we know and in an 18 team competition I wouldn't even consider pick 21 (it ended up being pushed out to round 2, 24 anyway) a first rounder. It's certainly much closer to round 2 than a prized top 10 selection. They got dudded even further given where Brisbane will finish this year.

Naughton is contracted and worth even more in trade as a quality tall forward I would imagine so personally I wouldn't even consider it until he's OOC, a RFA and we have more bargaining power.

 

[Jen2310]

Dunkley was out of contract so the Dogs reluctantly accepted less than market worth. Not all first round selections are created equal as we know and in an 18 team competition I wouldn't even consider pick 21 (it ended up being pushed out to round 2, 24 anyway) a first rounder. It's certainly much closer to round 2 than a prized top 10 selection. They got dudded even further given where Brisbane will finish this year.

Naughton is contracted and worth even more in trade as a quality tall forward I would imagine so personally I wouldn't even consider it until he's OOC, a RFA and we have more bargaining power.

Yeah, I dont think it should happen this year. Wait til next year when he is OOC if its on the cards.

 

[DopeMaster]

Anyone think we'll go down the road on topping up with an occasional veteran for several years to remain in the hunt?

Only thinking Players like a fit Elliott Yeo would be devastating player in our team. Hopefully more Isaac Smith than Gunston

I think it’s a good strategy so long as you don’t overuse it.

Get 3-4 years out of a ready to go player who makes you better. You take that over a 3rd/4th rounder or rookie who will take years to contribute in the unlikely event they make the grade.

So long as we target positions of need where there are no obvious talents coming through, and maintain a balance of staying ‘up’ while still developing youth - it’s a good strategy IMO.

Just be very wary of injury prone older players, offer 2 years max, or we'll end up with another Wells on the list.

 

[DopeMaster]

On top of that, I’d be targeting more plug and play early 20’s types with 2nd/3rd rounders ala Lippa and Hill..

They’re good value in that you remove the possibility of drafting someone who doesn’t make the grade, add youth to your age profile, they’re sufficiently developed to contribute in the 1s straight away, and ideally fill an area of need.

 

[3rdMan]

I don't think topping up with near 30 or over 30 year olds is something we should be considering. This is something to do when you've been up a while and are trying to stay up.

We're entering a period of success and will be looking to make that sustainable, so our main focus should be on young talent, with secondary targets in their mid 20s where sensible (ie. not injury plagued reclamation projects).

We have enough older players. The hope would be some of our young players start breaking into the 22 next year, this will be more energising than bringing in another 30+ year old ringer. Even with Mitchell we've seen that as the year has gone on he's not as crucial. At some point next year he may already be close to fringe, this isn't a cycle we'd want to continue. Mitchell filled a particular need, we no longer have a positional hole that requires a veteran.

 

[DopeMaster]

I don't think topping up with near 30 or over 30 year olds is something we should be considering. This is something to do when you've been up a while and are trying to stay up.

We're entering a period of success and will be looking to make that sustainable, so our main focus should be on young talent, with secondary targets in their mid 20s where sensible (ie. not injury plagued reclamation projects).

We have enough older players. The hope would be some of our young players start breaking into the 22 next year, this will be more energising than bringing in another 30+ year old ringer. Even with Mitchell we've seen that as the year has gone on he's not as crucial. At some point next year he may already be close to fringe, this isn't a cycle we'd want to continue. Mitchell filled a particular need, we no longer have a positional hole that requires a veteran.

If adding Mitchell gets us a flag then its been well worth it despite longevity IMO.

I'd add to that, with Pendles, Sidey, Howe, Elliot etc only with a few years left, you can offset that loss by bringing in an experienced player or two to partially fill the void, whilst leaving the other 2 spots for developing younger players.

You're right in that we shouldn't be looking for more 30ish players this off-season or even next, but as a strategy when the above retire it's not without merit.

Agreed re the 'reclamation projects', it's a roll of the dice and you only need a few to go wrong to ruin your list.

 

[DopeMaster]

There's a particular bracket of age/experience that gets in you in the window, what Geelong have done really well is manage their list in such a way that they're always in it.

I'd prefer to be a team that's constantly challenging and playing finals, rather than crashing to the depths in the hope that being shithouse long enough will net you enough draft picks to slingshot back up. As we've seen with many teams over the years, there's no guarantees you ever get back up.

 

[soreplums]

When does Naughton become a RFA? if it is the end of 2024, then it might not be as much as some are suggesting.

if we can trade in GC first rounder this year, (which will be a top 10 pick) and add to that, then we might be closer than we think.

 

[JLC]

Except I’ve given you examples of why that’s folly.

E.G Are we really walking away from Naughton as say, a Howe replacement because the backline cap will be busted, given Moore’s existing huge contract?

The Howe replacement is Ryan and or Dean?

I would be very surprised if GW is not after a number 1 key forward. I just don't think it's Naughton. I think it's Ben King.

Not 100% which players will be used to help make any deal happen.





Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[No SPIN]

There's a particular bracket of age/experience that gets in you in the window, what Geelong have done really well is manage their list in such a way that they're always in it.

I'd prefer to be a team that's constantly challenging and playing finals, rather than crashing to the depths in the hope that being shithouse long enough will net you enough draft picks to slingshot back up. As we've seen with many teams over the years, there's no guarantees you ever get back up.

The GMHBA dominance where they have almost 90% win rate guaranteeing a walk up start to finals, obscures the picture.
Prior to last year their loss rate in finals was around 70%.

 

[SchuPie]

I'm still preferring a midfield jet.
Not sure how to bring a young one in but Callahan seems like he might be in play at some point.
Moir might be a free hit at the draft and could be boom/bust.

{Edit: young midfield jet}

 

[Harry O]

I think if we could trade one of our first 2 picks for a youngster we really rate who has been in the system for 2-3 years , that would really suit our age profile Similar to what Cats did with Henry and Bruhn

 

[sr36]

He'd cost a lot. Two firsts and Macrae definitely won't get it done. The firsts would project as late. This year's basically a second rounder. Minimum deal would be two firsts and a best 22 player I reckon. Macrae has little value. Even if he has potential lack of AFL games puts a cap on his worth.

Seeing he's in contract, I agree.

Plus the whole player as direct steak knives will only occasionally be a thing - if the player is on the move with any demand - they choose the destination - the club they're departing from doesn't get the choice. So in the Macrae example - the steak knives are much more likely to be a third round pick - gotten for Macrae from wherever he went.

So that proposed trade is likely to be something like about pick 20 - after academy bids, a future pick estimated in the 14-20 range and a third round pick. I think we'd do that in a heart beat, but the Dogs wouldn't.

 

[Masked Magician]

Very smart by Graham Wright, rip up year 3 and 4 of the Nick Daicos and increase the $$ in year 3+ 4 for good will, extend him out to free agency and then have Nick on a team friendly deal from years 5-8.

“However, Daicos poured some cold water over the reported seven-figure salary for the Brownlow Medal favourite.

“I will tell you it’s not $1 million (per season),” Peter Daicos said.”

 

[TradeDraft]

Very smart by Graham Wright, rip up year 3 and 4 of the Nick Daicos and increase the $$ in year 3+ 4 for good will, extend him out to free agency and then have Nick on a team friendly deal from years 5-8.

“However, Daicos poured some cold water over the reported seven-figure salary for the Brownlow Medal favourite.

“I will tell you it’s not $1 million (per season),” Peter Daicos said.”

Be about the same as what Moore is getting and that said around $700-$800k

 

[DopeMaster]

The GMHBA dominance where they have almost 90% win rate guaranteeing a walk up start to finals, obscures the picture.
Prior to last year their loss rate in finals was around 70%.

They also lucked out a bit with Danger and Cameron, and their home ground is indeed advantageous.

But they didn’t win the grand final at GMHBA, so appears the list management strategy of staying in the window was a success.

 

[No SPIN]

They also lucked out a bit with Danger and Cameron, and their home ground is indeed advantageous.

But they didn’t win the grand final at GMHBA, so appears the list management strategy of staying in the window was a success.

Not sure it’s a template for success for other teams, who don’t get a walk up start to finals.

 

[DopeMaster]

Not sure it’s a template for success for other teams, who don’t get a walk up start to finals.

There’s no template, as evidenced by the countless teams who do the traditional ‘bottom out’ only to stay there for a decade or more.

I think there merit to a Geelong’s approach personally.