Game Day Collingwood v Richmond March 31 7:50pm

[Fat Jesus]

For those stat freaks that may be interested. Completed my analysis of scoring chains of Richmond and Collingwood for first 2 rounds.

Overall, total scoring shots across 4 quarters split into 5 min increments.

20mins 15mins. 10mins 5min
Tigers 11 13 12. 12
Magpies 17 16 17 19

Just based on these totals you can see Collingwood score more across the whole quarter, but their strength is the last 10 mins and red time of each quarter.

Richmond’s strength doesn’t appear to be in second half of quarters.

Where chains commence

Front half Defensive half
Tigers 18 21
Magpies 31 23

Collingwood is no longer relying on counter attack football. As we now hold our own in Contested possession and clearance we are now more of a forward half side (only 33.5 rebound 50s a game) that relies on fwd 50 efficiency (ranked 2) and repeat entries (13 scoring shots a game) to score.

Richmond are still a defensive half side. They rely on counter attack with only (8 repeat entry scoring shots a game), averaging 38.5 rebound 50s a game and their inside 50 efficiency is woeful (ranked 15).

Total shots from stoppage:

Centre bounce Stoppage
Tigers 9 (+4) 8 (+2)
Magpies 14 (+6) 19 (+8)

Collingwood have more scoring shots from stoppage. Speaks for itself. But to be fair to Richmond - they concede less scoring shots from stoppage. Either way, the -/+ differential is in both their favours with Collingwood ahead in centre bounce and hugely ahead at stoppages around the ground.

Total shots from turnover and intercept mark:

Tigers 24
Magpies 29

Total scoring shots from distance

30m or less 31m or more
Tigers 28 20
Magpies 45 22

Angle of total scoring shots

Middle Wide Boundary
Tigers 24 16 8
Magpies 36 23 8

Collingwood are scoring from inside 30 and from the middle. Simply put Richmond aren’t getting as many goals from that area.

Stats from AFL that appear to be a key point of difference between the two:

- Turnovers - Tigers ranked 3rd (more turnovers) Magpies 17th (less turnovers)

- Centre bounce clearance - Tigers ranked 13th Magpies ranked 7th

- Goal accuracy - Tigers ranked 8th Magpies ranked 1st

- Shot efficiency - Tigers 15th Magpies 3rd

- Goal efficiency - Tigers 13th Magpies 1st

- Disposal efficiency - Tigers 12th Magpies 5th

- Marks inside 50 - Tigers 9th Magpies 4th

What’s it all mean?

Collingwood, as stated previously, can win this two ways. Win Contested ball and clearance and trap the ball inside front half.

Or counter attack.

If Richmond start rebounding off the back half and capitalising, we can still rely on their poor inside 50 efficiency to counter attack like 2022.

If we are efficient ourselves, we can score from the back half, and reset at a centre bounce, win the clearance and get it in the front half again. Turn the screws and keep the pressure on.

Adelaide (O’Brien had a field day in 3rd quarter) trapped Richmond inside their front half and dominated Richmond in 3rd quarter.

Unlike Richmond we’ve not been dominated in a quarter yet. I think history will repeat this week. There will be an opportunity to pile on goals and blow this game open.

That 3rd quarter vs Crows should have Richmond concerned coming up against a front half dominating side like Collingwood.

I don’t know if weather will have an influence, nor Cox being out on Collingwood output - or if Richmond change things up and modify game-plan.

I do know that Hopper will be missed as he leads Richmond inside 50 count, and is top 4 in stoppage and tackles for them. Martin and short out obviously hurt too.

All things being equal. Based on the scoring chains data, Collingwood’s efficiency in getting scoring shots and Richmond’s lack of it, Collingwood should win this game.

Based on Richmond’s worst quarter allowing 5.8 to 1.1 last week vs crows - in a quarter the crows retained the ball in its front half - as well as the Tigers tendency to score less later in quarters, reliance on defence half scoring shots and turnovers Collingwood will get the scoring opportunities to win by plus 4 goals.


If everything goes as the stats and data suggest, I expect a plus 30 point win.

All the stats and coaching in the world won’t help us if the players don’t execute Flys brilliant game-plan and/or we succumb to a lot of injuries and/or Richmond turn it on and play a blinder.


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Great analysis mate

 

[Quicky]

For those stat freaks that may be interested. Completed my analysis of scoring chains of Richmond and Collingwood for first 2 rounds.

Overall, total scoring shots across 4 quarters split into 5 min increments.

20mins 15mins. 10mins 5min
Tigers 11 13 12. 12
Magpies 17 16 17 19

Just based on these totals you can see Collingwood score more across the whole quarter, but their strength is the last 10 mins and red time of each quarter.

Richmond’s strength doesn’t appear to be in second half of quarters.

Where chains commence

Front half Defensive half
Tigers 18 21
Magpies 31 23

Collingwood is no longer relying on counter attack football. As we now hold our own in Contested possession and clearance we are now more of a forward half side (only 33.5 rebound 50s a game) that relies on fwd 50 efficiency (ranked 2) and repeat entries (13 scoring shots a game) to score.

Richmond are still a defensive half side. They rely on counter attack with only (8 repeat entry scoring shots a game), averaging 38.5 rebound 50s a game and their inside 50 efficiency is woeful (ranked 15).

Total shots from stoppage:

Centre bounce Stoppage
Tigers 9 (+4) 8 (+2)
Magpies 14 (+6) 19 (+8)

Collingwood have more scoring shots from stoppage. Speaks for itself. But to be fair to Richmond - they concede less scoring shots from stoppage. Either way, the -/+ differential is in both their favours with Collingwood ahead in centre bounce and hugely ahead at stoppages around the ground.

Total shots from turnover and intercept mark:

Tigers 24
Magpies 29

Total scoring shots from distance

30m or less 31m or more
Tigers 28 20
Magpies 45 22

Angle of total scoring shots

Middle Wide Boundary
Tigers 24 16 8
Magpies 36 23 8

Collingwood are scoring from inside 30 and from the middle. Simply put Richmond aren’t getting as many goals from that area.

Stats from AFL that appear to be a key point of difference between the two:

- Turnovers - Tigers ranked 3rd (more turnovers) Magpies 17th (less turnovers)

- Centre bounce clearance - Tigers ranked 13th Magpies ranked 7th

- Goal accuracy - Tigers ranked 8th Magpies ranked 1st

- Shot efficiency - Tigers 15th Magpies 3rd

- Goal efficiency - Tigers 13th Magpies 1st

- Disposal efficiency - Tigers 12th Magpies 5th

- Marks inside 50 - Tigers 9th Magpies 4th

What’s it all mean?

Collingwood, as stated previously, can win this two ways. Win Contested ball and clearance and trap the ball inside front half.

Or counter attack.

If Richmond start rebounding off the back half and capitalising, we can still rely on their poor inside 50 efficiency to counter attack like 2022.

If we are efficient ourselves, we can score from the back half, and reset at a centre bounce, win the clearance and get it in the front half again. Turn the screws and keep the pressure on.

Adelaide (O’Brien had a field day in 3rd quarter) trapped Richmond inside their front half and dominated Richmond in 3rd quarter.

Unlike Richmond we’ve not been dominated in a quarter yet. I think history will repeat this week. There will be an opportunity to pile on goals and blow this game open.

That 3rd quarter vs Crows should have Richmond concerned coming up against a front half dominating side like Collingwood.

I don’t know if weather will have an influence, nor Cox being out on Collingwood output - or if Richmond change things up and modify game-plan.

I do know that Hopper will be missed as he leads Richmond inside 50 count, and is top 4 in stoppage and tackles for them. Martin and short out obviously hurt too.

All things being equal. Based on the scoring chains data, Collingwood’s efficiency in getting scoring shots and Richmond’s lack of it, Collingwood should win this game.

Based on Richmond’s worst quarter allowing 5.8 to 1.1 last week vs crows - in a quarter the crows retained the ball in its front half - as well as the Tigers tendency to score less later in quarters, reliance on defence half scoring shots and turnovers Collingwood will get the scoring opportunities to win by plus 4 goals.


If everything goes as the stats and data suggest, I expect a plus 30 point win.

All the stats and coaching in the world won’t help us if the players don’t execute Flys brilliant game-plan and/or we succumb to a lot of injuries and/or Richmond turn it on and play a blinder.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Awesome analysis. The clearance stats are interesting and no surprise with Mitchells form + combo with Adams. I still can't believe we got him and can't believe how many opposed it.

 

[legendstatus]

I’d be very disappointed if we don’t win this by 40+


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[noideaatall]

It is a wonderful game, a moment when both teams have significant outs and can test the future. After two wins we have a scent that this team is the real deal but now we can get into the meat of this year which is to blood and develop the players that will replace our talented aged and to test whether how reliant our system is on key elements. Do we really have depth? I believe we do. For those who backed the one ruckman approach, here is the opportunity to view it. Personally I think Cox is the biggest out but expect us to surprise in a close match. Hurrah, last week was as boring as bat shit after half time.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

It is a wonderful game, a moment when both teams have significant outs and can test the future. After two wins we have a scent that this team is the real deal but now we can get into the meat of this year which is to blood and develop the players that will replace our talented aged and to test whether how reliant our system is on key elements. Do we really have depth? I believe we do. For those who backed the one ruckman approach, here is the opportunity to view it. Personally I think Cox is the biggest out but expect us to surprise in a close match. Hurrah, last week was as boring as bat s**t after half time.

I prefer 'boring as batshit' games if it means we win by a large margin, and we aren't on the edge of our seats all night watching the lead swing from one team to another. Close games are what I like other teams to experience to enhance my enjoyment of their games.

 

[Markfs]

gee whiz, the people complimenting the heater's analysis have probably hurt wipey's feelings....why are people so cruel?

 

[Markfs]

I have to say that the coach's assessment of Johnson's performance was a little higher than what I thought. Coburg was embarassing and Johnson was pretty selective about what he wanted to do during the game. He is certainly above VFL level but I wonder how he will go with his relaxed attitude....

 

[cityslick1]

Am really looking forward to this. & On current form, I’ll also be majorly shitted off if we lose. Tigers have a few out, but will come hard with pressure and rough tactics for our scalp. It’s dimmas way

Pies by 32

The same number of touches Nick will get

 

[76woodenspooners]

I prefer 'boring as batshit' games if it means we win by a large margin, and we aren't on the edge of our seats all night watching the lead swing from one team to another. Close games are what I like other teams to experience to enhance my enjoyment of their games.

Which season do you remember with greater fondness, 2011 or 2022?

Which lovers do you feel more sentimental about? ‘boring as batshit’? Or ‘batshit crazy’?

Life is for living

 

[Go Pies!!!!!]

Reckon mihocek will be late change but we don’t have any injuries pies to cruise to 33pt win

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

Which lovers do you feel more sentimental about? ‘boring as batshit’? Or ‘batshit crazy’?

Life is for living

Unexpected twist ‘76

This topic deserves its own thread

 

[unplugged]

I'm (so far) reluctant to subscribe to the theory that we're now a good contested ball team and our problems are fixed, but only because the sample size isn't big enough yet. Because we were able to beat up on Port, our figures have us as what, the second best contested footy side in the comp?

Not saying we won't be, just find it funny when On The Couch, AFL360 etc say we were x best last year and now we are 2nd best. Give it a month or two I would've thought.

 

[Pie eyed]

I’d be very disappointed if we don’t win this by 40+


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Happy just to win.
A 3-0 start is a springboard to a great year.
I would not underestimate Richmond.
Older but still a scalp to be got.

 

[Pistol Night]

Had a quick look at the Richmond thread about the game and oh my god... They are a bunch of ****n weirdos. Even their mods are condoning Mansell belting us behind play. Every second comment has the word campaigners. They are seriously unhinged. Or very,very afraid..

 

[RobJD]

Awesome analysis. The clearance stats are interesting and no surprise with Mitchells form + combo with Adams. I still can't believe we got him and can't believe how many opposed it.

Agree, Tayz seems to be thriving and really enjoying the partnership with Titch - reckon he's benefitted the most from having Titch around - he's no longer trying to carry the whole team on his back and able to deliver a more concentrated and effective effort with less toll on his body - if Tayz and Titch (T'nT) can stay fit all year then we're a chance to go deep in September. Interesting too that Tayz's kicking efficiency seems to have improved (haven't looked at the stats, so I could be wrong) - might be an indicator that his poor kicking in the past was due to injury and not mechanics.

 

[jathanas]

Had a quick look at the Richmond thread about the game and oh my god... They are a bunch of *n weirdos. Even their mods are condoning Mansell belting us behind play. Every second comment has the word campaigners. They are seriously unhinged. Or very,very afraid..

I once considered Richmond a 2nd favorite side.

10 years of relative success has seen much of their supporter base carry on like they have always been awesome (they haven't).

Reading some of the posts in that thread, my feelings towards them have become Carlton-like.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Which season do you remember with greater fondness, 2011 or 2022?

Which lovers do you feel more sentimental about? ‘boring as batshit’? Or ‘batshit crazy’?

Life is for living

Malcolm Fraser once said 'Life wasn't meant to be easy', to which could easily be replied 'But it wasn't meant to be hellishly hard either'. I apply the same retort to winning in football.

For several reasons, 2022 is the obvious answer to your question, but there are elements added to the close games that made it more memorable. New coaches, new game style and importantly, more recent, within living memory. My strong recalls from 2011 are the rag dolling by Hawkins of Reid, Malthouse's ungracious exit in the grand final and Dawe's trampoline hands.

But 'fondness' is what you were seeking. 2022 definitely, but ask me again when 2022 is a 10 year memory. If we win the premiership or even make the grand final this year, 2023 will no doubt be the year I remember more fondly than 22.

In any case, we are sure to have more than our share of the close games. The year is but young. For now, I am happy with us seemingly being better than anybody else.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

I once considered Richmond a 2nd favorite side.

10 years of relative success has seen much of their supporter base carry on like they have always been awesome (they haven't).

Reading some of the posts in that thread, my feelings towards them have become Carlton-like.

Agree, that thread is really vile. I fully expect the dirty, sniping Tigers to be on full display tonight. And their feral arrogant supporters.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

What's this news about Darcy Moore

30

Darcy Moore

Age

28

Ht

203cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

169.1

3star

D

13.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

0.7

1star

MG

182.0

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

87.4

2star

may be out??

 

[MJC23]

What's this news about Darcy Moore may be out??

I just had a mate send me a message about this as well. Hopefully all BS

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

What's this news about Darcy Moore may be out??

I swear I feel like these rumours materialise out of thin air

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

I just had a mate send me a message about this as well. Hopefully all BS

If Darcy is out, we certainly won't be watching a runaway win by the Pies.

 

[cityslick1]

Agree, Tayz seems to be thriving and really enjoying the partnership with Titch - reckon he's benefitted the most from having Titch around - he's no longer trying to carry the whole team on his back and able to deliver a more concentrated and effective effort with less toll on his body - if Tayz and Titch (T'nT) can stay fit all year then we're a chance to go deep in September. Interesting too that Tayz's kicking efficiency seems to have improved (haven't looked at the stats, so I could be wrong) - might be an indicator that his poor kicking in the past was due to injury and not mechanics.

This, though I think Tay's disposal improvement is also due to our smart coaches, who have finally made sure that Tay kicks only in situations where he is least vulnerable - not the backline! - and uses his hands instead of feet in pressure situations. Bucks was too stubborn to enforce this, even though it was clear as day. He's also pushing forward more, as he makes a great small forward... where his kicking efficiency becomes a lot better. His pressure and clearance work is also back to AA best, which i think youre right, is due to his health and Mitch sharing the load... along with his hunger to dominate being at an all time high. Harder to find a more determined and emotionally charged footballer than Tay.

 

[Harry O]

I swear I feel like these rumours materialise out of thin air

Fly is playing with the Tigers minds. Even Mihocek was never in doubt

 

[sideswipe]

I just had a mate send me a message about this as well. Hopefully all BS

Time to find a new mate.


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