List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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[ArdentEagle]

BOND 007
How do you rate this years draft compared to last year's in terms of quality, depth and tiers?

 

[eaglespremiers]

I fear for the club who trades for Naughton and forks out big dollars on a long contract.

Its how he plays. He does kamakazi marking attempts every quarter and lands hard. He plays an intense bash and crash game style. Something will break at some point.

He and McGovern would probably end up causing each other season ending injuries due to an intense training bout.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

So we are nearing end of season and contemplating our pick and who we might take. Could a Norf upset return us pick 1? Might we get pick 2 become pick 4 with Norf getting compensation and Walter as a NGA before us? Lots of machinations.

I have gone back 10 years to look at the recent drafts but excluded the last 3 years as the talent is not able to be assessed yet (especially for talls). The last 3 also have an NGA or F/S that blur the analysis.



The best player in the draft I have in yellow. I know this will be subjective and opinions will be divided on who is the best player, but in no draft from 2013 to 2019 inclusive did the player I judge the best go at pick 1!

There are arguments that Walsh might still be number 1 but that is about the only case where it is close.

So will Harley Reid be the generational number 1 when we look back in 5 or so years time?

I preface it by saying Rowell, Walsh, Weitering and Boyd were all touted as absolutely must go at number 1 by a clear margin.

 

[Obeanie1]

norf are celebrating so hard and laughing at us, we are so naive. Well done boys great win

Lol.

Im a great beleiver in fate.

If the footy Gods have spoken and we get Curtin instead or McKercher. So be it.

It will be interesting how Reid goes and if he stays.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

So we are nearing end of season and contemplating our pick and who we might take. Could a Norf upset return us pick 1? Might we get pick 2 become pick 4 with Norf getting compensation and Walter as a NGA before us? Lots of machinations.

I have gone back 10 years to look at the recent drafts but excluded the last 3 years as the talent is not able to be assessed yet (especially for talls). The last 3 also have an NGA or F/S that blur the analysis.

View attachment 1781189

The best player in the draft I have in yellow. I know this will be subjective and opinions will be divided on who is the best player, but in no draft from 2013 to 2019 inclusive did the player I judge the best go at pick 1!

There are arguments that Walsh might still be number 1 but that is about the only case where it is close.

So will Harley Reid be the generational number 1 when we look back in 5 or so years time?

I preface it by saying Rowell, Walsh, Weitering and Boyd were all touted as absolutely must go at number 1 by a clear margin.

Don't take a talls at pick 1.

 

[Deepthroat]

Scenario - North don't get band one.

Trade 2, 40 & 54 to Suns for 4, F1 and Sharp.

We still get our man (Curtin).



We might then be able to swap Bulldogs 10,17 for Suns F1 and our 35.


OUT - 2, 35, 40 & 54

IN - 4, 10, 17 & Sharp

 

[Keys]

https://x.com/codeaflau/status/1693475348753846619?s=46&t=hh1CaG3mgh6blUQ6zDAalg

It’s not really worth reading the article but this bit was of interest

Under the AFL’s formula every player 25 and over has their salaries listed by the AFL, with a contract in the top 5 per cent earning first-round compensation for a free agency move.

No idea if this is correct but it’s the first time I’ve seen it spelt out like this

To give you an idea per the AFL’s player payment summary

Million-dollar dozen: Stars cash in, player pay hits new high

A record 12 players were paid at least $1 million for the 2022 season

www.afl.com.au

a total of 51 players earned over $800k with another 32 earning over $700k. You’d expect those numbers to be higher for 2023 and again for 2024 with the salary cap increasing so even $800k for McKay could fall short of what’s needed for Band 1

More likely band 2 (end of first round) which bizarrely is the first pick of night 2 (see 2018 and our Lycett pick) meaning finishing 17th will not have cost us the first pick on night two and the potential trade offers that brings

 

[dinnaz]

Ohh, I've been reliably informed that Chesser is going to be great and certainly much better than Matt Johnson though

Johnson > Chesser for sure. But Johnson isn't as good as everyone reckons.

Dear God, why?

Nothing against Cadman but key forward wasn’t exactly the top of our priorities list.

I wanted him at #2 as the outstanding CHF talent when compared to where everyone else sat in comparison. This year would be 5-10 I think.
Last years top end was pretty weak not to mention they had all had injury interrupted years which may have hurt stocks.

 

[Simon Whitlock]

I do look forward to all the talk of how West Coast should trade pick 1 for more picks because they need more talent in the doors to disappear now North have pick 1 and Harley Reid once again becomes the best thing since sliced bread.

Scenario - North don't get band one.

Trade 2, 40 & 54 to Suns for 4, F1 and Sharp.

We still get our man (Curtin).



We might then be able to swap Bulldogs 10,17 for Suns F1 and our 35.


OUT - 2, 35, 40 & 54

IN - 4, 10, 17 & Sharp

Scenario - North don't get band one.

Trade 2, 40 & 54 to Suns for 4, F1 and Sharp.

We still get our man (Curtin).



We might then be able to swap Bulldogs 10,17 for Suns F1 and our 35.


OUT - 2, 35, 40 & 54

IN - 4, 10, 17 & Sharp

Big risk for the Suns that North don't bid on Jed, precisely the reasons they're trying to offload their top picks.

If they knew that wasn't going to happen, however, could be a massive result for them - the #2 pick, then their 3 academy players shortly after. May need to go into deficit for next year, but still, 4 picks in the top 15 and out....

 

[DanWCE]

Just listened to Duff and I got the impression he was linking Duursma to us purely based on Twomeys latest rankings with him at 3.

 

[Deepthroat]

Initially thought Sun

Big risk for the Suns that North don't bid on Jed, precisely the reasons they're trying to offload their top picks.

If they knew that wasn't going to happen, however, could be a massive result for them - the #2 pick, then their 3 academy players shortly after. May need to go into deficit for next year, but still, 4 picks in the top 15 and out....

North would be the only club to absolutely blow the PR opportunity of taking Reid at 2 following a Jed bid.

A real possibility.

 

[FKASC]

https://x.com/codeaflau/status/1693475348753846619?s=46&t=hh1CaG3mgh6blUQ6zDAalg

It’s not really worth reading the article but this bit was of interest



No idea if this is correct but it’s the first time I’ve seen it spelt out like this

To give you an idea per the AFL’s player payment summary

Million-dollar dozen: Stars cash in, player pay hits new high

A record 12 players were paid at least $1 million for the 2022 season

www.afl.com.au

a total of 51 players earned over $800k with another 32 earning over $700k. You’d expect those numbers to be higher for 2023 and again for 2024 with the salary cap increasing so even $800k for McKay could fall short of what’s needed for Band 1

More likely band 2 (end of first round) which bizarrely is the first pick of night 2 (see 2018 and our Lycett pick) meaning finishing 17th will not have cost us the first pick on night two and the potential trade offers that brings

Good work

 

[BOND 007]

BOND 007
How do you rate this years draft compared to last year's in terms of quality, depth and tiers?

Similarity in terms of high end. Probably the high end doesnt last as long this year and the middle teir also.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Similarity in terms of high end. Probably the high end doesnt last as long this year and the middle teir also.

Thanks mate. Does it look at though there could still be some Long type bargains deeper? Players with some flags but have elite talent in certain areas?

 

[Keys]

Thanks mate. Does it look at though there could still be some Long type bargains deeper? Players with some flags but have elite talent in certain areas?

Probably a hard one to answer as I think most people weren’t expecting Long to still be available at our last pick

Suspect there’s more than one club kicking themselves for not taking him earlier

 

[BOND 007]

Thanks mate. Does it look at though there could still be some Long type bargains deeper? Players with some flags but have elite talent in certain areas?

He's a good one isn't he.

There's always kids like this in every draft - you just have to be able to see what they can do rather than focussing on what they can't.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

He's a good one isn't he.

There's always kids like this in every draft - you just have to be able to see what they can do rather than focussing on what they can't.

I was ken on Burgiel at the Barnett pick so delighted when we got him at our next pick. Shocking year for him - are you seeing in him what you expected?

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

He's a good one isn't he.

There's always kids like this in every draft - you just have to be able to see what they can do rather than focussing on what they can't.

Ah, I see you've been reading ill-informed Nic Nat comments too.

 

[BOND 007]

Ah, I see you've been reading ill-informed Nic Nat comments too.

Nope - if you'd like to trawl through my posts (ICBF) you will see it's a saying I have been preaching for some time & well before the NN article. Maybe I should claim some type of rights/patent on this

 

[BOND 007]

I was ken on Burgiel at the Barnett pick so delighted when we got him at our next pick. Shocking year for him - are you seeing in him what you expected?

Hasn't gone as planned. Played a good game on the weekend I believe.
Young kid - injured- not a lot expected has a good attitude but.

 

[Matera92]

He's a good one isn't he.

There's always kids like this in every draft - you just have to be able to see what they can do rather than focussing on what they can't.

Just quietly you guys absolutely knocked it out of the park last year with the draft, well done.

Excited to see how you go this time round, feeling pretty bullish regardless of what pick we end up with.

Good luck with the silly season!

 

[donpyke92]

this aged well

Yeh, had the BSD hat on after a few whiskies.
Still reckon he's a lock if we finish last, though.

 

[BOND 007]

Just quietly you guys absolutely knocked it out of the park last year with the draft, well done.

Excited to see how you go this time round, feeling pretty bullish regardless of what pick we end up with.

Good luck with the silly season!

Thanks

 

[CountryLad]

Hasn't gone as planned. Played a good game on the weekend I believe.
Young kid - injured- not a lot expected has a good attitude but.

Who did he play for?

 

[Elite Pete]

4 year offer in front of Dev from the Eagles. Surely he is coming home….

Personally love if we can get it done. Hope the $$ isn’t overs though