List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...
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Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

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AsterixTheGaul said:
So we are nearing end of season and contemplating our pick and who we might take. Could a Norf upset return us pick 1? Might we get pick 2 become pick 4 with Norf getting compensation and Walter as a NGA before us? Lots of machinations.

I have gone back 10 years to look at the recent drafts but excluded the last 3 years as the talent is not able to be assessed yet (especially for talls). The last 3 also have an NGA or F/S that blur the analysis.

View attachment 1781189

The best player in the draft I have in yellow. I know this will be subjective and opinions will be divided on who is the best player, but in no draft from 2013 to 2019 inclusive did the player I judge the best go at pick 1!

There are arguments that Walsh might still be number 1 but that is about the only case where it is close.

So will Harley Reid be the generational number 1 when we look back in 5 or so years time?

I preface it by saying Rowell, Walsh, Weitering and Boyd were all touted as absolutely must go at number 1 by a clear margin.
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You’re still absolutely taking pretty much all of those pick 1s in your side though. That’s where the difference is. You’re basically locked in to get a top 5 player on your list (provided you’re not a basket case like North or Melbourne tanking era).

Sure you might still end up with the best player in the draft from a later pick but pick 1 is usually a sure thing. After the season we’ve just had I think I know which I’d prefer.
 
I was bored today so had a look at our list for next year.

Even with Hurn, Shuey and Naitanui's retirement, I can't work out who should be delisted. Especially if we are bringing in talent through trades. If I have made a mistake here please let me know because it is making my brain hurt.


With the retirements accounted for, at the moment our squad is:

Main List: 37/38
Rookies: 4/4
Cat B Rookies: 2/2

Of the rookies (West, Trew, Winder, Maric), all but Maric are out of contract and I believe cannot be re-rookied.

With no further de-listings, we would have 40 on the main list, 2 over the max.

So, here is the formula...

1 player in means 3 players out
2 players in means 4 players out
3 players in means 5 players out
4 players in means 6 players out
5 players in means 7 players out
6 players in means 8 players out
7 players in means 9 players out


These players are OOC: Waterman, SPS, Foley, O’Neill, Clark, Culley, Witherden, West, Winder, Trew, Category B: Dewar, Baker

I would have Waterman, Culley and Witherden as locks of re-signings.

In order of most likely to be delisted (in the main list) I would have them as:
1. West
2. O'Neill
3. Winder
4. Trew
5. Foley
6. Clark
7. SPS

I could see Clark, Foley or O'Neill being offered to be put on the rookie list... maybe SPS too.

It does look like we will be getting 1-2 players in through trades. Let's say two come in (Robertson and Brockman maybe). I would expect we would be looking at drafting at least 3 players as well. So that means we need another 7 players to be delisted.

So maybe all 7 of them, with 3 put on the rookie list?

Hopefully this all makes sense, it barely does to me.
 

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BeornJ said:
I was bored today so had a look at our list for next year.

Even with Hurn, Shuey and Naitanui's retirement, I can't work out who should be delisted. Especially if we are bringing in talent through trades. If I have made a mistake here please let me know because it is making my brain hurt.


With the retirements accounted for, at the moment our squad is:

Main List: 37/38
Rookies: 4/4
Cat B Rookies: 2/2

Of the rookies (West, Trew, Winder, Maric), all but Maric are out of contract and I believe cannot be re-rookied.

With no further de-listings, we would have 40 on the main list, 2 over the max.

So, here is the formula...

1 player in means 3 players out
2 players in means 4 players out
3 players in means 5 players out
4 players in means 6 players out
5 players in means 7 players out
6 players in means 8 players out
7 players in means 9 players out


These players are OOC: Waterman, SPS, Foley, O’Neill, Clark, Culley, Witherden, West, Winder, Trew, Category B: Dewar, Baker

I would have Waterman, Culley and Witherden as locks of re-signings.

In order of most likely to be delisted (in the main list) I would have them as:
1. West
2. O'Neill
3. Winder
4. Trew
5. Foley
6. Clark
7. SPS

I could see Clark, Foley or O'Neill being offered to be put on the rookie list... maybe SPS too.

It does look like we will be getting 1-2 players in through trades. Let's say two come in (Robertson and Brockman maybe). I would expect we would be looking at drafting at least 3 players as well. So that means we need another 7 players to be delisted.

So maybe all 7 of them, with 3 put on the rookie list?

Hopefully this all makes sense, it barely does to me.
Click to expand...
Rob said recently he felt the club would take 4 to 5 players in the draft.
 
CountryLad said:

Anyone able to open this up?
Click to expand...

Nothing really of interest except the latest order ​

​

FULL INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER AFTER ROUND 23​

Adelaide: 6, 19, 23, 80, 98
Brisbane Lions: 27, 46, 55, 61, 91
Carlton: 14, 65, 70, 88
Collingwood: 18, 33, 74, 92
Essendon: 9, 28, 47, 68, 83
Fremantle: 20, 39, 52, 57, 79, 97
Geelong: 8, 82, 100
Gold Coast: 4, 25, 30, 42, 44, 56, 60, 62, 69, 78, 96
GWS Giants: 7, 11, 49, 67, 73, 85
Hawthorn: 3, 29, 48, 77, 95
Melbourne: 5, 15, 24, 34, 89
North Melbourne: 1, 16, 38, 53, 59, 75, 93
Port Adelaide: 37, 43, 72, 90
Richmond: 26, 45, 63, 81, 99
St Kilda: 13, 32, 51, 87
Sydney: 12, 22, 31, 41, 50, 86
West Coast: 2, 21, 35, 40, 54, 58, 76, 94
Western Bulldogs: 10, 17, 36, 64, 66, 71, 84
 
AsterixTheGaul said:

Nothing really of interest except the latest order ​

​

FULL INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER AFTER ROUND 23​

Adelaide: 6, 19, 23, 80, 98
Brisbane Lions: 27, 46, 55, 61, 91
Carlton: 14, 65, 70, 88
Collingwood: 18, 33, 74, 92
Essendon: 9, 28, 47, 68, 83
Fremantle: 20, 39, 52, 57, 79, 97
Geelong: 8, 82, 100
Gold Coast: 4, 25, 30, 42, 44, 56, 60, 62, 69, 78, 96
GWS Giants: 7, 11, 49, 67, 73, 85
Hawthorn: 3, 29, 48, 77, 95
Melbourne: 5, 15, 24, 34, 89
North Melbourne: 1, 16, 38, 53, 59, 75, 93
Port Adelaide: 37, 43, 72, 90
Richmond: 26, 45, 63, 81, 99
St Kilda: 13, 32, 51, 87
Sydney: 12, 22, 31, 41, 50, 86
West Coast: 2, 21, 35, 40, 54, 58, 76, 94
Western Bulldogs: 10, 17, 36, 64, 66, 71, 84
Click to expand...

Go all in on the Suns pick 4, I think we can get both McKercher and Curtin IF North don’t get 2 for McKay.

I’d rather one of those guys over 2-3 2nd or 3rd round talents personally.
 
BeornJ

You’ve got this bit out of whack

Main List: 37/38
Rookies: 4/4
Cat B Rookies: 2/2

After the retirements we now have

35 on the main list (was 38)
5 on the rookie list (Culley is a rookie)
2 Cat B rookies

Overall we have 2 vacancies so we are able to bring in another 2 players without any more cuts

To bring in 6 new players through the draft and trades (4 draft/2 trades or 5/1) plus one RD pick meaning 7 players total we need to delist 5 players

I think O’Neill, Foley and Clark will be cut from the main list and West from the rookie list

That leaves at least one of Trew, Winder or SPS would need to be delisted to create the 7th list opening. More if we want to add 8 or 9 new players

The above also doesn’t take into account the possibility of someone asking to be traded out
 
daddy_4_eyes said:
In summary of whats been said to date:

Can play back, forward or midfield.
Best kick in the draft.
Can football (not just an athlete).
195cm tall.
Likened to Pavlich.
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More like Shannon Hurn or Glen Jackovich in his later days running off opponents. He is big, takes a very good defenders mark and kicks the ball like a defender. He's nothing like Pavlich. He not a leading commanding forward. Bunga could rack up Disposals too. Actually much like Ginbey or Duggan a defensive tall mid, If he ever moved into the midfield. I do not see Curtain with any forward craft. Very good behind the ball.

Gold Coast have never won down in Tasmania.
They are world beaters up in the Tropics thou.
This is North's best ground to play on. #ItAintOverFor1Yet.

Gold Coast won't want to win this game either. They too could send players for surgery early especially with the arrival of Dimma on a 6 yr deal. Pick 4 to GC if they lose or Pick 5 if they win
 
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MrKennedy17 said:
More like Shannon Hurn. He is big, takes a very good defenders mark and kicks the ball like a defender. He's nothing like Pavlich.
He is a defender, not a leading commanding forward. Bunga could rack up Disposals too.
Click to expand...

I don’t think Hurn is a good comparison, Hurn was much more physical and a genuine 1 on 1 defender who could lockdown most types of forwards.

Curtin is not a lockdown defender, he’s best as a spare defender.
 
CountryLad said:
Rob said recently he felt the club would take 4 to 5 players in the draft.
Click to expand...
I am expecting 1 trade, Culley upgraded to the main list and 5 draftees. on the senior list. To do that, we need 4 players off the list plus our 3 retirees.

Main list - in the spotlight are Foley, Clark, SPS and XON. I also think Rotham is a candidate to be downgraded to the rookie listed. No idea what is happening with Waterman and his illness.

Rookie List - I had been thinking all of West Winder and Trew are likely to go. Winder has had a really nice end to the year in WAFL so that might make it interesting. Trew has also come back late with a decent showing and was not out of place on the weekend v Dogs. I can see us saving one of these.

I would personally delist Clark, West and Foley - not candidates to be rookied.

With Winder, Trew, SPS and XON, I would delist and say they are possible pick ups depending on the draft.

With Rotham it is a delist and pick up as a rookie if he is not snaffled elsewhere. Alternatively shop him around but we won't get much

Waterman is the mystery.
 
Keys said:
BeornJ

You’ve got this bit out of whack

Main List: 37/38
Rookies: 4/4
Cat B Rookies: 2/2

After the retirements we now have

35 on the main list (was 38)
5 on the rookie list (Culley is a rookie)
2 Cat B rookies

Overall we have 2 vacancies so we are able to bring in another 2 players without any more cuts

To bring in 6 new players through the draft and trades (4 draft/2 trades or 5/1) plus one RD pick meaning 7 players total we need to delist 5 players

I think O’Neill, Foley and Clark will be cut from the main list and West from the rookie list

That leaves at least one of Trew, Winder or SPS would need to be delisted to create the 7th list opening. More if we want to add 8 or 9 new players

The above also doesn’t take into account the possibility of someone asking to be traded out
Click to expand...
Reckon it's one of the easiest years to make cuts... O'Neill, Foley and Clark gone from the main list, likely all of West, Trew and Winder gone from the rookie list, put any of Waterman, Rotham, SPS on the rookie list. Can still keep Winder if we think he has potential.
 

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TerryFilk said:
I don’t think Hurn is a good comparison, Hurn was much more physical and a genuine 1 on 1 defender who could lockdown most types of forwards.

Curtin is not a lockdown defender, he’s best as a spare defender.
Click to expand...

You’re under rating his 1v1 ability.

Looking at the WA v Allies game on YouTube, Walters took the points but Curtin was able to win some important one on one contests. No one else even came close to quelling Walter, except Curtin.
 
WTF would we offer a 4 year deal to Deven Robertson? I can't figure out the Bigfooty hard-on for this guy. He's maybe an upgrade on Xavier O'Neill... which really isn't saying much.
 
Dom sheed pocket said:
You’re under rating his 1v1 ability.

Looking at the WA v Allies game on YouTube, Walters took the points but Curtin was able to win some important one on one contests. No one else even came close to quelling Walter, except Curtin.
Click to expand...

I didn’t say he can’t defend 1 on 1, it’s just wasting his specialities if you ask him to do that, he’s also still not a lockdown defender so I don’t think the reward of asking him to go 1 on 1 with the best forward is bigger than the reward of him being allowed to roam.

The Walter match up was solid, but he still had 5 or 6 shots on goal, not all of them were on Curtin though. It was a good battle.
 
BOND 007 said:
Hey Mattman - thought about the best way to answer this. Either way I phrase it will not satisfy a section of the posters here.
First up - I like Reid - he's a talent. Yes I think he's number #1 and winning yesterday means he's unlikely to be there for WC's pick unless NM win this weekend (and that's certainly possible). Will we look back in 3 or 4 years time and say why - only time will tell. But what I do know is this.

1) Is Reid that far ahead of a couple of others that it's a train wreck - I don't believe so.
2) the pressure on the club has been sustained and enormous and is felt by everyone. It's human nature to start looking over our shoulders and second guessing themselves & so it's hard to do your job properly. Winning releases that pressure somewhat & you have can smile again which is such a relief. Look at the players reactions after the final siren incl Yeo who knew he was injured again & wasn't going to play last round for Shuey and Hurn.
3) continually losing has a bigger impact than destabilisation off field. It impacts the players greatly, their enjoyment of the game and the club. An unhappy workplace is not a great place to be. I know some have started to wonder whether WC is the right place to be & that is very unsettling. Ben McKay is likely exiting NM not for money (as he will be well paid wherever he ends up) but because he's sick of losing. A club cannot be successful and drag themselves out of the mire if players start to leave. GC has suffered a similar fate since their inception
4) we all know players want to win. But they're not stupid - they also know when coaches want to lose. After telling the players all year that you have confidence in them, that they have the ability to win any game, by 'tanking' you have effectively done a 180. Effectively you are saying "we need pick 1 because we need this player in our squad because you guys aren't good enough"
Not a great message.

It's a balancing act with no right or wrong.
Click to expand...

Is it likely we may lose a couple of these players who are wondering if WC is the right place to be? BOND 007
 
TerryFilk said:
Go all in on the Suns pick 4, I think we can get both McKercher and Curtin IF North don’t get 2 for McKay.

I’d rather one of those guys over 2-3 2nd or 3rd round talents personally.
Click to expand...
To get pick 4, we are likely to have to give up our pick 21, next year's R2 (I have assumed as 21) plus picks 40 and 54. It may be higher

That would have us with pick 2, 4 35 and 59 in the draft.

It is costly and it comes with risk that we have to accept one of Curtin or McKercher plus a Watson or Duursma.

1692603346515.png
 
AsterixTheGaul said:
To get pick 4, we are likely to have to give up our pick 21, next year's R2 (I have assumed as 21) plus picks 40 and 54. It may be higher

That would have us with pick 2, 4 35 and 59 in the draft.

It is costly and it comes with risk that we have to accept one of Curtin or McKercher plus a Watson or Duursma.

View attachment 1781306
Click to expand...

It would help if Walter was still on the board at 2 and we promised not to bid right? That would save them some points.

But yeah, I think it’d definitely require our future 2nd, I’d still do it personally.

We could wait until draft night to see who’s available at their pick as well, if McKercher or Curtin aren’t there, I probably wouldn’t do it, unless a team like GWS or the Dogs offered both the 1sts they have for it.
 
Tyberious Funk said:
WTF would we offer a 4 year deal to Deven Robertson? I can't figure out the Bigfooty hard-on for this guy. He's maybe an upgrade on Xavier O'Neill... which really isn't saying much.
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Upgrading your worst is a good way to improve the list. Especially in an area of need and an age bracket we’re deficient in. Not everyone is going to be a Brownlow favourite
 
Playing deep forward, Harley started this game very well taking marks and kicking goals. Unfortunately his game ended early when he seemed to pick up a knee injury early in the second quarter. Here's hoping its nothing serious.

 
Coasters7 said:
Upgrading your worst is a good way to improve the list. Especially in an area of need and an age bracket we’re deficient in. Not everyone is going to be a Brownlow favourite
Click to expand...

You give him a major role for a few years while the Kids mature then he becomes depth if he's pushed from the 22.
 
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