List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2021 offseason edition

[Keys]

So the 2021 season is officially done and dusted.

It’s time now to fully turn our attention to the off season and what we can do through the trade period/draft to chase down Melbourne in 2022.

List and personnel changes have already been made and I’ll update this OP as and when any further changes are made.

As it stands these are our official list changes :

Out -
• Venables (R) - retired
• Vardy - retired
• Hutchings (R) - delisted
• Ah Chee (R) - delisted
• Ainsworth - delisted
• Johnson - delisted
• Collins (R) - delisted
• Brander - cluster****
• Cameron - retired/delisted not that it was officially acknowledged by the club
• Sheppard - retired

Inactive listed -
• Cole
• Chesser

In -
• Petrevski-Seton - traded for pick 52
• Chesser - Pick 14
• Hough - Pick 31
• Bazzo - Pick 37
• Williams (Jack) - Pick 57
• Clark - Pick 62
• Dixon - SSP
• Joyce - SSP
• Strnadica - SSP
• Naish - SSP

Players on main list - 37 (Including 2 inactive)
Players on rookie list - 7

Future trade picks :
In - Port Adelaide future 2nd
Out - Future 4th

Assistant Coaches :
• Out - Graham, Hickmott
• In - Schofield (Strategy and Stoppage), Knights (Midfield), Wiley (WAFL coach), Brennan (development)

Link to contract status of all players -

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R) Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Current contract status (Updated 18/10/24) : Total 39 Players -...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[hudson2006]

I'm home sick, so as you do, I thought why not try do a list analysis.


Approach
The approach I used was to:
- give all our players a rating
- use an age/performance curve to forecast how player's ratings will change in the next couple of years
- feed the info into charts to show how we look in the next couple of years

No doubt no one will have the same view on ratings, or on the curve I used. But that probably isn't the point. More just to see what we need on our list in a couple of years.


Summary of what I think we need
We have 8 spare spots. Assuming that we fill 7 of them this off-season, my take from the charts is that we need:
- 1 young tall defender
- 1 young tall forward
- 1 mature-age ruck
- 1 young small/medium defender
- 3 mids


Charts

Notes:
- the dots on each players line is their age and rating in July of 2022, 2023 and 2024.
- the shaded red bit is just to try and show the likelihood that players will drop off or retire
- I've probably made mistakes like forgetting someone or having someone twice or something. I'll try to edit if needed.

Tall defenders
View attachment 1267361

Small/medium defenders
View attachment 1267362

Mids
View attachment 1267363

Rucks
View attachment 1267364

Small/medium forwards
View attachment 1267365

Tall forwards
View attachment 1267366

Aside from the midfield the list is looking ok, some good young talent on an upward trajectory with most lines due for an injection of fresh 18-20y/olds.

That midfield though… huge cliff approaching with question marks over all of the younger players ability to reach an elite tier. Good way of visualizing the concerns.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Good visualisation. The massive issue is that besides maybe Allen, we don’t have any A Grade youngsters. This isn’t unsurprising given the lack of top 10 picks over the last decade.

really need to hit in this draft. If not we’ll have a downswing at some stage, happens to every team.

At least we got a flag out of this group.

 

[Off Tap]

Great work Suma Magic and highlights the struggles our list is about to go through.

It's concerning as to who is going to hold our KP's up with the inevitable drop off of Kennedy, Darling and McGovern.

Both Darling and McGovern have limped into the backends of the last 2 years because of injury and concerns must be held of this happening again this year.

7 AA's and a Norm Smith about to finish up in the next 2 - 3 years with very little quality to replace them. Allen looks like the only guy who might be of an AA level.

 

[Off Tap]

Aside from the midfield the list is looking ok, some good young talent on an upward trajectory with most lines due for an injection of fresh 18-20y/olds.

That midfield though… huge cliff approaching with question marks over all of the younger players ability to reach an elite tier. Good way of visualizing the concerns.

Have to disagree with you hudson2006. Our KP players are shot with only Allen and HEdwards coming through. Considering it takes up to 5 years and 80 games for players to find their feet, we're in serious trouble with our big blokes.

 

[dajesmac]

The more I look into Josh Sinn the more it seems he’s got to be a favourite of WC. Damaging ball use, kicks it with good velocity and takes those riskier high reward options. That leg speed as well would really standout in our side.

Apparently very mature for his age, slipped down the rankings a bit due to injuries. I know there is a lot of talk around here around the WA kids, especially if they are mids, but Sinn seems like such an obvious WC pick I’ll be surprised if we overlook him at 12.

 

[dajesmac]

Semi fun fact; in the last 20 years, we've only taken West Australians in the first round 5 times, and not once since 2013.

2001: Sampi
2007: Masten
2008: Naitanui
2009: Sheppard
2013: Sheed

 

[THE A5]

The more I look into Josh Sinn the more it seems he’s got to be a favourite of WC. Damaging ball use, kicks it with good velocity and takes those riskier high reward options. That leg speed as well would really standout in our side.

Apparently very mature for his age, slipped down the rankings a bit due to injuries. I know there is a lot of talk around here around the WA kids, especially if they are mids, but Sinn seems like such an obvious WC pick I’ll be surprised if we overlook him at 12.

Would be a cardinal Sinn to overlook a midfielder, especially someone like Matt Johnson

 

[shooshka]

The more I look into Josh Sinn the more it seems he’s got to be a favourite of WC. Damaging ball use, kicks it with good velocity and takes those riskier high reward options. That leg speed as well would really standout in our side.

Apparently very mature for his age, slipped down the rankings a bit due to injuries. I know there is a lot of talk around here around the WA kids, especially if they are mids, but Sinn seems like such an obvious WC pick I’ll be surprised if we overlook him at 12.

I think (without knowing anything about any of the draftees!) it would be a massive mistake.

The cost to trade in an elite hbf, with run and carry and/or elite kicking tends to max out at about pick 6. But they can be a lot cheaper.

The cost for an elite mid (if their teams will let them go) is 2 x 1st rounders (plus, plus depending on who you are dealing with). Same with talls.


We could probably get a developed HBF with run and carry at around the same price in a trade if/when we need one.

That said, if he projects as a mid - we'll pick him

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

No issue with us bottoming out, it's the nature of the AFL structure.
But when that happens, we need to embrace it. Not piss fart around mid-table for years because "something something winning culture".

 

[dajesmac]

Would be a cardinal Sinn to overlook a midfielder, especially someone like Matt Johnson

I'd be happy with either of Sinn or Johnson but my gut feel is we don't reach for the WA kid if we rate the Vic kid higher. ROB also suggested that we're happy with our young mids in Edwards, West and Winder and suggested the midfield isn't a focus. That's not something I agree with, but if we take that at face value I think we'll have no issue picking a non mid with the first pick.

I think there's a little bit of a natural WA bias when it comes to the draft for WC & Freo fans. Gut feel is Johnson just isn't a WC style pick - I'll be genuinely surprised if we take him.

 

[dajesmac]

I think (without knowing anything about any of the draftees!) it would be a massive mistake.

The cost to trade in an elite hbf, with run and carry and/or elite kicking tends to max out at about pick 6. But they can be a lot cheaper.

The cost for an elite mid (if their teams will let them go) is 2 x 1st rounders (plus, plus depending on who you are dealing with). Same with talls.


We could probably get a developed HBF with run and carry at around the same price in a trade if/when we need one.

That said, if he projects as a mid - we'll pick him

That's actually a very good point, although you could slip that and say there is a chance of us trading in a Johnson back from over east in 2-4 years, whilst this is our only chance of recruiting Josh Sinn (in this narrow hypothetical).

I think we're very overdue to take a mid with a first round pick - it's been 8 years in fact (unless you include Venables). But I think we go with who we deem as best available rather than discriminating on mid vs non-mid.

 

[shooshka]

That's actually a very good point, although you could slip that and say there is a chance of us trading in a Johnson back from over east in 2-4 years, whilst this is our only chance of recruiting Josh Sinn (in this narrow hypothetical).

I think we're very overdue to take a mid with a first round pick - it's been 8 years in fact (unless you include Venables). But I think we go with who we deem as best available rather than discriminating on mid vs non-mid.

Yep, relatively happy to go best available - but think we should avoid 3 player types:

KPD
HBF
Outside mid (unless they have elite speed and skills - but generally those guys will go before 10-12)

Plenty of serviceable role players in these positions available later in drafts.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Johnson seems to be the prototype modern midfielder. Tall, athletic, good skills, reads play well, makes smart decisions. Pendlebury MkII
Yet to read what weaknesses he has. Why is he slipping to our pick or beyond?

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

No issue with us bottoming out, it's the nature of the AFL structure.
But when that happens, we need to embrace it. Not piss fart around mid-table for years because "something something winning culture".

Pissfarting about midtable worked for Ninthmond

 

[ArdentEagle]

Great work Suma Magic and highlights the struggles our list is about to go through.

It's concerning as to who is going to hold our KP's up with the inevitable drop off of Kennedy, Darling and McGovern.

Both Darling and McGovern have limped into the backends of the last 2 years because of injury and concerns must be held of this happening again this year.

7 AA's and a Norm Smith about to finish up in the next 2 - 3 years with very little quality to replace them. Allen looks like the only guy who might be of an AA level.

I really like HEdwards too. Potential AA there as well imo

 

[bzparkes]

Johnson seems to be the prototype modern midfielder. Tall, athletic, good skills, reads play well, makes smart decisions. Pendlebury MkII
Yet to read what weaknesses he has. Why is he slipping to our pick or beyond?

Same reason Sam Mitchell fell back so far in his draft - pace. Recruiters are obsessed with it.

 

[Monocle]

The more I look into Josh Sinn the more it seems he’s got to be a favourite of WC. Damaging ball use, kicks it with good velocity and takes those riskier high reward options. That leg speed as well would really standout in our side.

Apparently very mature for his age, slipped down the rankings a bit due to injuries. I know there is a lot of talk around here around the WA kids, especially if they are mids, but Sinn seems like such an obvious WC pick I’ll be surprised if we overlook him at 12.

That IMO would be a very brave draft selection.
There was nothing in Sinn’s game this year, that would have me take him over MJ.

MJ’s two matches against SA ( in particular) were heads and shoulders above Sinn.

Even forgetting the ethnocentric of WA bias and just going best player available, I would take Goater Vic Metro, Knevitt Vic Country and Draper SA ahead of Sinn.

Good player is Sinn, so I am not intending to dish him, but I think there will be better players available to us with our first pick.

 

[Lazzas]

I'd be happy with either of Sinn or Johnson but my gut feel is we don't reach for the WA kid if we rate the Vic kid higher. ROB also suggested that we're happy with our young mids in Edwards, West and Winder and suggested the midfield isn't a focus. That's not something I agree with, but if we take that at face value I think we'll have no issue picking a non mid with the first pick.

I think there's a little bit of a natural WA bias when it comes to the draft for WC & Freo fans. Gut feel is Johnson just isn't a WC style pick - I'll be genuinely surprised if we take him.

Some of the Eastern State mids may be hard to access this year due to lack of exposure to footy. Will find some bargains late that will come good once they are in an AFL list.

 

[THE A5]

I'd be happy with either of Sinn or Johnson but my gut feel is we don't reach for the WA kid if we rate the Vic kid higher. ROB also suggested that we're happy with our young mids in Edwards, West and Winder and suggested the midfield isn't a focus. That's not something I agree with, but if we take that at face value I think we'll have no issue picking a non mid with the first pick.

I think there's a little bit of a natural WA bias when it comes to the draft for WC & Freo fans. Gut feel is Johnson just isn't a WC style pick - I'll be genuinely surprised if we take him.

I’d cry if we pick a half back flanker with our first pick. Like SPS isn’t even a good example of addressing our midfield need as he is more of a fwd/mid than a genuine mid

 

[mattyc75]

Some of the Eastern State mids may be hard to access this year due to lack of exposure to footy. Will find some bargains late that will come good once they are in an AFL list.

And apparently ward has said he wants to stay in Victoria too

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[shooshka]

I’d cry if we pick a half back flanker with our first pick. Like SPS isn’t even a good example of addressing our midfield need as he is more of a fwd/mid than a genuine mid

SPS addresses a need. We need inside, outside and balanced mid depth.

SPS allows us to get a more inside focussed mid (or balanced) as he is balanced outside-leaning (Ledwards looks that way too).



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[Happy Mastenator]

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

Well he was part of their academy. They could have at least thrown us a late pick duing trade period considering we paid a 3rd rounder for langdon the year before

I think from now on we should be telling fringe players not to nominate us and we just pick them as delisted free agents .

Both langdon and SPS should have been taken this way considering the brander situation

 

[Truckosaurus]

It's not like GWS to play silly buggers. Either they made a late offer to him that turned out better than the other offers he had or he didn't have any other offers, I feel.

 

[ghostbat12]

SPS addresses a need. We need inside, outside and balanced mid depth.

SPS allows us to get a more inside focussed mid (or balanced) as he is balanced outside-leaning (Ledwards looks that way too).



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Our need is current players to play with maximum intensity.

Up there you are placing a lot of hope on a player that was a borderline delisting.