List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2021 offseason edition

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So the 2021 season is officially done and dusted.

It’s time now to fully turn our attention to the off season and what we can do through the trade period/draft to chase down Melbourne in 2022.

List and personnel changes have already been made and I’ll update this OP as and when any further changes are made.

As it stands these are our official list changes :

Out -
• Venables (R) - retired
• Vardy - retired
• Hutchings (R) - delisted
• Ah Chee (R) - delisted
• Ainsworth - delisted
• Johnson - delisted
• Collins (R) - delisted
• Brander - cluster****
• Cameron - retired/delisted not that it was officially acknowledged by the club
• Sheppard - retired

Inactive listed -
• Cole
• Chesser

In -
• Petrevski-Seton - traded for pick 52
• Chesser - Pick 14
• Hough - Pick 31
• Bazzo - Pick 37
• Williams (Jack) - Pick 57
• Clark - Pick 62
• Dixon - SSP
• Joyce - SSP
• Strnadica - SSP
• Naish - SSP

Players on main list - 37 (Including 2 inactive)
Players on rookie list - 7

Future trade picks :
In - Port Adelaide future 2nd
Out - Future 4th

Assistant Coaches :
• Out - Graham, Hickmott
• In - Schofield (Strategy and Stoppage), Knights (Midfield), Wiley (WAFL coach), Brennan (development)

Link to contract status of all players -

 
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Let's just run the numbers here. How often is pick 1 traded since the game became truly professional in 2000? Once.

Pick 1 would still get you a pick between 3-5 and another first rounder. If we ended up down that path I would trade pick 1. Teams are scared of drafting more pure rucks early on in the draft too. Particularly if you can get them saying how much they love WA. Pick 1 could potentially turn into 4 and 10. I see at least 4 potential superstar mids in this draft pool as well as 6 potential superstar talls at this stage. West Coast could very likely if they wanted to get their first choice WA mid and Ruck. I don't see this as a super deep draft pool but our second particularly if finishing last plus ports second would also likely get us a pick in that 10-15 range. That first pick of day 2 of the draft is hugely over valued.

Just look at the crows trying to Upgrade this year for Callaghan and you see how hard it is to trade up into the top 5. One down year and it could really reshape the entire list. The way our fixture is lined up as well it was looking like an easy run to start the year but gets difficult later in the year. So with all our injuries the club could very well drop games with a full list we would be highly expected to win and then even with returning stars with a tougher run in the back half of the season bottom 2 in particular is a very distinct possibility. I also expect a very low % from the club, so even if we were to snag 6 wins I would likely see the club finishing 17th.
 
A month ago our needs were:
  • back up ruck
  • Darling replacement
And the thinking was Strnadica + Keitel

Now are needs are
  • back up ruck
  • Darling replacement
  • ready to play midfielder

With the Dixon signing, it looks like the club has picked a player who can meet the first two so there's room for a midfielder.

60% ruck 60% forward 100%midfielder is better coverage than
100% ruck 100% forward 0% midfielder or 100% ruck 0% forward 100% midfielder, etc.

I'd prefer we go 200% half back flanker
 

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Let's just run the numbers here. How often is pick 1 traded since the game became truly professional in 2000? Once.

Pick 1 would still get you a pick between 3-5 and another first rounder. If we ended up down that path I would trade pick 1. Teams are scared of drafting more pure rucks early on in the draft too. Particularly if you can get them saying how much they love WA. Pick 1 could potentially turn into 4 and 10. I see at least 4 potential superstar mids in this draft pool as well as 6 potential superstar talls at this stage. West Coast could very likely if they wanted to get their first choice WA mid and Ruck. I don't see this as a super deep draft pool but our second particularly if finishing last plus ports second would also likely get us a pick in that 10-15 range. That first pick of day 2 of the draft is hugely over valued.

Just look at the crows trying to Upgrade this year for Callaghan and you see how hard it is to trade up into the top 5. One down year and it could really reshape the entire list. The way our fixture is lined up as well it was looking like an easy run to start the year but gets difficult later in the year. So with all our injuries the club could very well drop games with a full list we would be highly expected to win and then even with returning stars with a tougher run in the back half of the season bottom 2 in particular is a very distinct possibility. I also expect a very low % from the club, so even if we were to snag 6 wins I would likely see the club finishing 17th.

Didn't crows offer the world to try and get number 1 pick for Horne-Francis? or were they keen on Callaghan?

I like where your head is at, if we could still land Hewett with the pushed back first send the later first rounder to Sydney for McDonald and try and move up with our two seconds to secure Jackson Broadbent and then target a pacey HBFer in the later rounds. That would be a very big silver lining on the year.
 
So let’s use 2022 as a year with a purpose. Hit the draft and start making cap space.

I expect a top 5 draft pick that will get us Hewitt.

We then look at what Brisbane want for their R1 pick as Ashcroft is a pure points play. That will get us a pick in the mid to late teens. We have 2 second rounders that should easily cover it.

I’d go again and with a bottom 6 likely, sell off the 2023 R1. Melbourne, Doggies, Norf, Sydney, etc (all for different reasons) could be takers.

So 3 first rounders and then we look at cap space. I’ve posted recently that there are 8 seniors that may not make it to 2023. That was about $3 mln.Possibly keep our powder dry in FA this season end and have a 2 year rebound. Forward pay salary in 2023 and we can take 5% forward.

Bang - we are back contending in 2024 with a few veterans like Sheed and Barrass and 2 solid years into Oscar, Foley, HEdwards, LEdwards, Williams, Chesser, etc

We would then have 3 to 4 guns from the 2921 and 2022 draft ready to go.

While we are at it, Trevor uses this time to transition, Gibbs admits he might be a good board member but a crap culture leader and Vozzo gets well or goes home.

By then we might have a women’s team that is competitive and a vision of what we do with our Beagles. Meanwhile we bank another $10 mln a year into the coffers
 
No mate we just weren’t good enough the clubs culture disintegrated by the whole Cousins saga.
we lost cousins and Judd and the kerr midway through the season. Braun, Fletcher and Stenglien were all on their last legs too at the time. I think this year or next year will really feel like freo 2016/17 with an old list and not many great young talent there.
 

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(comment on 2008 tanking, or not)
No mate we just weren’t good enough the clubs culture disintegrated by the whole Cousins saga.
Agree. Going back to 2007, we should have at least made the GF. But in a sign of things to come, injuries, Cousins and disharmony, combined with an old list meant we faded badly from being way on top of the ladder mid season, to barely competitive at season end.
2008 was just the fruition and realisation of the last half of 2007. Midfield gone or getting old and slow, no forward line and an aging backline. Basically the team just carried through its late 2007 form to 2008.

The danger is that we could be on the cusp of a repeat. If we take the last 8 weeks of 2021 and put that on the paddock from round 1 2022, it's going to be a long year. A very long year.
 
This SSP situation.
Couple of months ago many here (myself included) were moist about getting Dittmar with our sole pick. Then Shep died.

2 picks; F@#$ we can get another, badly needed, back up Ruck/FWD in Strinadica. Trains well, then is injured.

Then the JD fiasco = maybe we can get another mid to back up our dire lack of young midfield depth? Joyce impresses in the intraclub, is released for the Freo scratchie before Yeo, Chesser & Sheed all get hurt & is called back 🤣
Kietel trains well, does FA in half a quarter and he's off to Freo; fine. Dixon kills it; suddenly he's a Monty for the list spot......

With the (out till mid season) injuries to Chesser and Sheed, assuming we make JD inactive, my question is......

HOW MANY OF THE F@#$ERS DO WE TAKE NOW? 4? 5?

Who do we take now & in what order of importance?

Dixon, Strinadica, Joyce & Dittmar (no noise around this, are we still keen?) If it is 5, pinch Bailey Rogers from Freo FFS.

Boom, get it done Nissy Ya old Kent.
 
Seem to have cooled on Dittmar, looks like we'll be taking Strnadica and Dixon, which likely means no extra mids. Just have to make do.

Joyce being invited back suggests he’s well and truly in the mix.
 
I think we need to avoid getting too many WAFL toilers hence why we've probably cooled on Dittmar. We already have West. Not sure if Clark comes under that category as well.
 
Seem to have cooled on Dittmar, looks like we'll be taking Strnadica and Dixon, which likely means no extra mids. Just have to make do.
The problems with Dittmar are;
1. he's not a tall and we need more talls, and
2. he's a mid and we are so overstocked on quality mids that it's ridiculous. Coming out of the woodwork they are. Don't know what to do with them all we don't.
 
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