List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2022 superstar edition

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players -

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[swingdog]

Your arguement can be used both ways.

Pick 1 is no certainty. Could end up a flop or even injury gods are unkind. You admit Braun has form and looks like an A grader.

So by downgrading 3 or 4 spots we get an A grade mid, ready to go round 1 PLUS a second highly rated mid around pick 5 to 7. And who knows how good he ends up.

Or we put all our chips on number 2 and spin the roulette wheel.

We spent too many picks trading in Kelly. We need more than one kid at pick 2 to turn this list around. Its a no brainer for mine as there seems like very little standout super elite talent compared to previous drafts.

I think everyone would like 2 for the price of 1.

Isn't the issue that nobody is likely to trade down from the top 5 where all the best talent is?

 

[Chump Change]

Your arguement can be used both ways.

Pick 1 is no certainty. Could end up a flop or even injury gods are unkind. You admit Braun has form and looks like an A grader.

So by downgrading 3 or 4 spots we get an A grade mid, ready to go round 1 PLUS a second highly rated mid around pick 5 to 7. And who knows how good he ends up.

Or we put all our chips on number 2 and spin the roulette wheel.

We spent too many picks trading in Kelly. We need more than one kid at pick 2 to turn this list around. Its a no brainer for mine as there seems like very little standout super elite talent compared to previous drafts.

It's not really about whether it can be used both ways. I can find you examples when splitting a pick does work and when it doesn't work. Just because there's an example in existence of one thing, doesn't mean it's the best idea.

To put it simply, we don't have a crystal ball. You can pick up A+ graders at back end of the first round... but here's a fact:

The further you go back, the less chance you have of "guessing right".

We also know the chances of winning a flag without some A+ graders is slim. And we also know these players are more often than not recruited from the pointy end of the draft.

Furthermore, there will be other avenues to players like Bruhn and Robertson. You can get them with a pick in the teens or 20s. We have these picks every year and these players usually become available every year or two. What we want get year in year out is access to the best few players in the draft. There's a reason why North kept hold of their number 1 pick last year.

It doesn't matter if it is Warlord or Sheezle or Phillipou - whichever of these players ends rated higher, we should take. The only exception would be if our recruitment team felt the best player would still be there a couple of picks later. Pretty hard to do in the top 5.

 

[kane249]

Looking at the SA talent, I am hearing a strong pool this year so Adelaide may well be a willing seller to slide back from 4/5. They may also be willing buyers of an additional first rounder in exchange for a future and I note Sydney have 2 picks (theirs and Melbourne). Of course all that will change if Horn-Francis remains on his initial contract. Brisbane are likely sellers but with their pick likely to be 17 to 20, there will be less interest (but maybe ok for us if we rate Broadbent and Hewett and they are still there). So the interest in trades in this year's first round should be strong IMHO.

Way too early to be too specific but we should be considering the sorts of offers that might come our way if we are holding pick 2 or 3:-

• Georgiades not getting games and reportedly homesick (these tend to go hand in hand) - would we drop back 5 or so places and swap with Port?
• Bruhn open to a return to Perth wanting to get decent $ with GWS having a tight cap - would we drop back 3 or 4 places and swap with GWS and gain a ready made mid?
• Sydney would love a Busslinger at CHB on the SCG so would we go for their 2 first rounders (currently 12 and 17 combined valued at around pick 3) and go back outside the top 10?
• Suns have 3 x R2 and 2 R3 selections so what would that look? I would think Busslinger is of interest but would they do something for Sheezel to add to their bulging talent bank? They will not be able to take their current number of picks to the draft as they will have less positions than picks? Would we go back 6 positions and also gain picks 26 and 29 (which we could easily on-sell to Lions for their R1)
• Norf will be thinking about this as they have already shown that they cannot be trusted with a pointy end pick and they may well just accept 2 x R1 a bit further back

So I will be spending time analysing the shape of the draft and the depth. Interesting as more football is being played, I am hearing less people saying it is a shallow draft. I actually think there is something of everything in the first 30 picks and decent tall options to choose from.

If Phillipou continues to shine, I would be tempted to stay put and take him. We will need to be creative to bring in multiple high end quality players. There are 7 tall prospects in this top 15 which is interesting. I would probably say that unless we can be assured of a very good mid, I would not drop back. I have in recent years thought less about the top 10 order as I knew it meant little for where we would be picking. Different story in 2022 (and likely 2023).

Is your mail on Bruhn accurate that he's open to a move back to Perth or just a hypothetical scenario?

 

[shooshka]

I think everyone would like 2 for the price of 1.

Isn't the issue that nobody is likely to trade down from the top 5 where all the best talent is?

It's probably a question of whether GWS/Hawks (likely picks 5 & 6 - order unknown) or Adelaide/Essendon (picks 3/4 - again not sure who gets which at this stage) are that keen on a player that they are willing to offer something outrageous.

The absolute best result for us is if 6/7/8 or more players break out later in the season and look to be elite. Turn it into a 'super draft'. Teams may be trying to jump others to specific players, and we could potentially get another Chesser type trade (move down but get the player we want).

That said, if it stays as it is (but we get pick #2, rather than #1 - which looks more likely now) then we should just take it to the draft if there are only 2/3/4 highly rated prospects.

 

[Obeanie1]

It's not really about whether it can be used both ways. I can find you examples when splitting a pick does work and when it doesn't work. Just because there's an example in existence of one thing, doesn't mean it's the best idea.

To put it simply, we don't have a crystal ball. You can pick up A+ graders at back end of the first round... but here's a fact:

The further you go back, the less chance you have of "guessing right".

We also know the chances of winning a flag without some A+ graders is slim. And we also know these players are more often than not recruited from the pointy end of the draft.

Furthermore, there will be other avenues to players like Bruhn and Robertson. You can get them with a pick in the teens or 20s. We have these picks every year and these players usually become available every year or two. What we want get year in year out is access to the best few players in the draft. There's a reason why North kept hold of their number 1 pick last year.

It doesn't matter if it is Warlord or Sheezle or Phillipou - whichever of these players ends rated higher, we should take. The only exception would be if our recruitment team felt the best player would still be there a couple of picks later. Pretty hard to do in the top 5.

Its only half a crystal ball when you split a pick for a single pick and a player with exposed form.

Thats the point. You are de-risking the use of a single pick.

When you split one pick for other picks alone. That is crystao balling.

Split the pick. Get in a young, rising, semi proven A grader. Take the crystal ball approach with pick 5.

Less risk. But potentially greater reward. Massively less risk in ending up with nothing.

 

[random260]

Its only half a crystal ball when you split a pick for a single pick and a player with exposed form.

Thats the point. You are de-risking the use of a single pick.

When you split one pick for other picks alone. That is crystao balling.

Split the pick. Get in a young, rising, semi proven A grader. Take the crystal ball approach with pick 5.

Less risk. But potentially greater reward. Massively less risk in ending up with nothing.

Again what's the hard on for pick >12 we are likely to be paired with in pick 5. Heads up teams get pick >12 every single year. The likelihood of getting a pick in bottom 3 is rare since you need to finish wooden spooners.

I mean we got pick 14 in 2021.

We have alot of stupid people thinking we will give up pick one
for 2x < 10 draft picks

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Is your mail on Bruhn accurate that he's open to a move back to Perth or just a hypothetical scenario?

Only hypothetical.

I believe there are noises from Georgiades though

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Take the package deal every day.

Wardlow may even still be there at 5ish. If not a bloody good mid still will be.

Would love Sheezle to bolt into top 2 and other clubs scramble and bid to beat Essendon to him.

Yeah agree.
A couple weeks ago it was Wardlow and Ashcroft. So it was either pick 1 or bust.

Now there seems to be several top kids. Wardlow, Ashcroft, Sheezel, Phillipou & Busslinger look like being the top 5, and as per Miguel Sanchez post, pick 1 doesn't guarantee the best kid.

That said, I'd be reluctant to trade out of the top 5 (e.g. for Sydneys picks 12 & 17), and I'm not convinced other clubs would offer us the world for a 3-4 spot upgrade if they also view the top 5 as fairly even.

 

[ArdentEagle]

1.89CM

Same height as me...Perfect
Now if he was my weight too, he'd either be a Mr Universe or 20Kgs too heavy

 

[Chump Change]

Its only half a crystal ball when you split a pick for a single pick and a player with exposed form.

Thats the point. You are de-risking the use of a single pick.

When you split one pick for other picks alone. That is crystao balling.

Split the pick. Get in a young, rising, semi proven A grader. Take the crystal ball approach with pick 5.

Less risk. But potentially greater reward. Massively less risk in ending up with nothing.

This is a pretty much a given: you need 2x A+ graders to win a flag. The rest of the player are findable. Those A+ players predominantly come from the top of the draft. You want to downgrade to get another player that we will eventually find somewhere else?

Seems crazy. The hardest thing about winning a flag is finding those superstars. It is numero uno priority and you think it's a good idea to weaken your hand?

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

The problem is you are using the names of unknowns. You're throwing up scenarios using names that we don't know where they rank immediately prior to the draft.

I like Bruhn. I think he can be a A-grader. Do I think he'll be an A+? No.

So let's remove the names and call it pick 2. We don't know if Warlord is the best player yet. Could be someone else.

What is almost certain is you have to have a couple of A+ players to win a flag, and at least one has to be a midfielder. The best chance of finding such a player is with a top two pick. We're only going to have a limited amount of top 2 picks, where as the opportunity for a Bruhn happens every year. We got Yeo with a second rounder.

If you have a top 2 pick and there is a stand out, you have to take them.

So what we are hearing (and this may well change) is that there is NO standout. Unlike last year with Horny Francis and Daicos, there are none this year. Still some very good talent in the top 10 but not a load of difference from what you get at 1 or 2 and what you can get at 4, 5, 6.

What I found strange from your reaction was a blanket NO WAY WOULD WE TRADE A TOP 2 PICK.

We have no idea how the board will start to be filled in.
We have no idea what deals will come our way
We have no idea who will start to rise quickly (remember Andy Brayshaw was seen as a late 1st/early 2nd two months before the draft and Oliver was not even considered for the carnival)

Yet you categorically discounted my scenarios with a closed mind set. When considering options, I was raising possibilities.

Where did you sit with Norf and their rejection of the Adelaide offer for pick 1 in 2021? I was on record saying that I would have taken that deal. But Rachele was taken with pick 6 and this was the range I was prepared to say might be worthy of a slide back.

You use the term "we don't know where player X ranks". We never do. If you follow Twomey and his power rankings, Cal spend most of his time networking and picking the brains of the recruiters. He also has access to the visitation requests that clubs must lodge with the AFL in order to visit the prospects at home. He has never coached junior football, he has never been a recruiter and he has very little insights of his own as to who be the right prospects. His phantom is celebrated when he predicts who will take what player. I like to get inputs from varying sources and not just rely on Cal. Clubs normally keep tight lipped and I suspect in 2022 based on limited football in prior years, the clubs will be more reluctant to share.

So boards and lists are very subjective beyond the bleeding obvious. I guess you missed the fact that I was asking questions as to what we might look at with offers. If you want to say no without hearing the offer, good luck to you. Personally I call that being narrow minded.

 

[joeyavalanche]

He's still incredibly slow, terrible man on man, loses his player and isn't great man on man. I just don't see how he competes as a midfielder, even almost exclusively outside particularly with 6,6,6 and the stand rule. Without those rule changes he could well make it.

To me he is a depth player at best and more likely just a great state league player who doesn't have the weapons to step it up a level at AFL with his severe deficiencies.

In his first batch of games he did play that Bunga/Jetts role in being more aggressive and using his kicks to open up the play, so he has it in him.

But like Roth he appeared to be stifled by the constraints of our defensive system which has turned into just nervous sideways kicks.

Doesn’t help the fact that isn’t a great defender or tackler and just doesn’t have any mongrel about him.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Chump Change]

So what we are hearing (and this may well change) is that there is NO standout. Unlike last year with Horny Francis and Daicos, there are none this year. Still some very good talent in the top 10 but not a load of difference from what you get at 1 or 2 and what you can get at 4, 5, 6.

What I found strange from your reaction was a blanket NO WAY WOULD WE TRADE A TOP 2 PICK.

We have no idea how the board will start to be filled in.
We have no idea what deals will come our way
We have no idea who will start to rise quickly (remember Andy Brayshaw was seen as a late 1st/early 2nd two months before the draft and Oliver was not even considered for the carnival)

Yet you categorically discounted my scenarios with a closed mind set. When considering options, I was raising possibilities.

Where did you sit with Norf and their rejection of the Adelaide offer for pick 1 in 2021? I was on record saying that I would have taken that deal. But Rachele was taken with pick 6 and this was the range I was prepared to say might be worthy of a slide back.

You use the term "we don't know where player X ranks". We never do. If you follow Twomey and his power rankings, Cal spend most of his time networking and picking the brains of the recruiters. He also has access to the visitation requests that clubs must lodge with the AFL in order to visit the prospects at home. He has never coached junior football, he has never been a recruiter and he has very little insights of his own as to who be the right prospects. His phantom is celebrated when he predicts who will take what player. I like to get inputs from varying sources and not just rely on Cal. Clubs normally keep tight lipped and I suspect in 2022 based on limited football in prior years, the clubs will be more reluctant to share.

So boards and lists are very subjective beyond the bleeding obvious. I guess you missed the fact that I was asking questions as to what we might look at with offers. If you want to say no without hearing the offer, good luck to you. Personally I call that being narrow minded.

Actually, we're hearing different things and you're only hearing what you want to hear. There are people who are saying the top end is good and then drops away. There's other who say the first round is good and then drops away.

I simply don't know how strong the draft is. I don't know when it drops off etc.

What I do know is;

Every year 80 kids get drafted. Only a small percentage play 50 games, a minute percentage 200 games, and an even smaller amount end up A+ superstars. But the vast majority of superstars are taken with those top picks.

Think about it..... A true superstar who is one of the best few players in the AFL is also likely to be one of the best in his own age group through the years leading up to the draft. Some players are just the best (or thereabouts) no matter what pool they are in. Those players live at the very pointy end of the draft.

Forget all this "could be/couldn't be a strong draft" and just play the percentages. We have to find those A+ graders and the best chance is a top 2 draft pick.

On Twomey: everyone knows this. Not sure why you are telling me?

On narrow mindedness:

Here's what was offered to North last year:

AFL.com.au can reveal the Tigers offered North Melbourne picks No.7, 15, 26 and Callum Coleman-Jones for North's No.1 pick during discussions over the Coleman-Jones trade.

Gibcus
Leek Aleer
Connor MacDonald
Callum Coleman Jones

Who knows how it pans out? I think Gibcus is a 200 gamer. The other guys - could end up A-graders.

But collectively they aren't worth a guy who has potential to be an A+.


I'm not being narrow minded, just playing the percentages (given we have no crystal ball).

 

[eagles rule]

The U18 carnival has be begun so in perhaps a month or so the clear Top 5-10 candidates will emerge ..


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[shooshka]

Actually, we're hearing different things and you're only hearing what you want to hear. There are people who are saying the top end is good and then drops away. There's other who say the first round is good and then drops away.

I simply don't know how strong the draft is. I don't know when it drops off etc.

What I do know is;

Every year 80 kids get drafted. Only a small percentage play 50 games, a minute percentage 200 games, and an even smaller amount end up A+ superstars. But the vast majority of superstars are taken with those top picks.

Think about it..... A true superstar who is one of the best few players in the AFL is also likely to be one of the best in his own age group through the years leading up to the draft. Some players are just the best (or thereabouts) no matter what pool they are in. Those players live at the very pointy end of the draft.

Forget all this "could be/couldn't be a strong draft" and just play the percentages. We have to find those A+ graders and the best chance is a top 2 draft pick.

On Twomey: everyone knows this. Not sure why you are telling me?

On narrow mindedness:

Here's what was offered to North last year:

AFL.com.au can reveal the Tigers offered North Melbourne picks No.7, 15, 26 and Callum Coleman-Jones for North's No.1 pick during discussions over the Coleman-Jones trade.

Gibcus
Leek Aleer
Connor MacDonald
Callum Coleman Jones

Who knows how it pans out? I think Gibcus is a 200 gamer. The other guys - could end up A-graders.

But collectively they aren't worth a guy who has potential to be an A+.


I'm not being narrow minded, just playing the percentages (given we have no crystal ball).

What about the Adelaide offer? Because by excluding that you are being narrow minded (as much as, ironically, you decide to hear what you want to hear).

The point being made isn't that we SHOULD trade our early pick, only that we should be open to offers and see what that looks like.

A couple of hypotheticals, assuming we finish 17th:

Wardlaw, Ashcroft and Sheezel become clear top 3 players. North making noises they will take Wardlaw, Ashcroft nominates for Brisbane and Sheezel has huge go-home factor. Do we not even consider offers from Essendon, Adelaide, GWS or Hawthorn to slide back a couple of positions (and, if the go-home factor is of concern, likely get the same player)

Wardlaw, Ashcroft and Busslinger become clear top picks, Wardlaw and Ashcroft as above (Nth/Bris). Do we need another intercept defender? Gov - let's ignore as he will be on the way out as Busslinger is ready, but we still have Barrass, Edwards and Bazzo. Surely again we at least entertain offers.


Back to last years draft - Adelaide offered pick 4 (6 after bids), 2022 1st (looking like 4/5/6), plus the demons 2022 1st (16/17/18 likely). No doubt there would have been a 2022 or 2021 2nd go back to them (so really that Demons pick is only a very minor upgrade). But pick 4, plus a future pick 6 is a pretty attractive offer.

 

[WCE_phil]

Yeah agree.
A couple weeks ago it was Wardlow and Ashcroft. So it was either pick 1 or bust.

Now there seems to be several top kids. Wardlow, Ashcroft, Sheezel, Phillipou & Busslinger look like being the top 5, and as per Miguel Sanchez post, pick 1 doesn't guarantee the best kid.

That said, I'd be reluctant to trade out of the top 5 (e.g. for Sydneys picks 12 & 17), and I'm not convinced other clubs would offer us the world for a 3-4 spot upgrade if they also view the top 5 as fairly even.

I don't have Phillipou there yet. If he plays some significant more on ball minutes for SA in the champs and produces he could get there. Tsatas is probably still widely considered the other top 5 pick at the moment.

Even assuming he's best available I don't want the club spending a super high draft pick on Busslinger when we already have Barrass and Bazzo. We have later in the draft as well as next year. I do agree we should be taking 1 tall this draft though.

GC desperately need a top shelf young key defender on their list.
So do north, but pulling the trigger at pick 1 when he's not an out and out definitive top pick is akin to them selecting Powell over Mcdonald. Then Carlton took Weitering he was seen as a daylight pick 1 even if he is a Key defender.

The only way I see any team getting 2 nominal top 10 picks is if Degoey destroys the back end of the season and takes a big offer on FA. Would North or Essendon be willing to put a big offer to him, maybe. It would also require Collingwood to fall away and finish say 10th which I mentioned in another thread. They then have pick 9&10. For Essendon it would allow them to rotate one of Stringer and De goey through the middle and forward line at the same time. For north they might then be happy with taking Busslinger if they got De Goey in.

There are always teams trying to climb the list for a specific player, particularly now with live trading during the draft and history says it is not unreasonable for a team to offer pick 9&10 for pick 2. Port desperately wanted pick 3 in Martin's draft year and offered pick 8,9 and something else as well from memory and were turned down.

There's also the possibility of whilst this may look overs for Sydney but they would still need a pick in this draft but next years first + 38 this year for their 2 first rounders.

GC seem highly like to get Brisbanes first rounder this year. Brissie need the points and GC have the second and third round picks to get it. GC aren't going to finish higher than they are now due to injuries and look likely to drop below port.
Would you trade pick 2 & 38 for 7, 17 and their future second?

GWS are always looking to move up the order as well unless they prioritise a player they are almost certain will be there. 6, 24 and Bruhn.

We have good trading relationships with most clubs and are widely considered amongst other clubs as being very trustworthy and willing to work towards mutually beneficial trades.

I would be floating the idea of our future first + 38 for Sydney's 2 firsts this year.
You then Keep pick 2 and see what offers are presented.
Yes you are putting all your eggs in one basket in the aim to develop a group of players together but we have the dead wood to use 6 ND picks this year even if we do bring in a player.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

We absolutely have to find an A+ grader and the best chance is with a top two pick.

Even if there’s a potential A+ grader we rate highly that’s likely to be available later.

Even if the players generally rated in the top two or three are father-sons, or massive flight risks.

Even if there’s a godfather offer on the table for our top two pick.

We just have to play the historic percentages and use the pick. Whether or not it makes sense.

 

[paran]

So this supports not tanking as well as us being prepared to look at offers and a slide back

Like Hobbs sliding to 11?

 

[Chump Change]

What about the Adelaide offer? Because by excluding that you are being narrow minded (as much as, ironically, you decide to hear what you want to hear).

The point being made isn't that we SHOULD trade our early pick, only that we should be open to offers and see what that looks like.

A couple of hypotheticals, assuming we finish 17th:

Wardlaw, Ashcroft and Sheezel become clear top 3 players. North making noises they will take Wardlaw, Ashcroft nominates for Brisbane and Sheezel has huge go-home factor. Do we not even consider offers from Essendon, Adelaide, GWS or Hawthorn to slide back a couple of positions (and, if the go-home factor is of concern, likely get the same player)

Wardlaw, Ashcroft and Busslinger become clear top picks, Wardlaw and Ashcroft as above (Nth/Bris). Do we need another intercept defender? Gov - let's ignore as he will be on the way out as Busslinger is ready, but we still have Barrass, Edwards and Bazzo. Surely again we at least entertain offers.


Back to last years draft - Adelaide offered pick 4 (6 after bids), 2022 1st (looking like 4/5/6), plus the demons 2022 1st (16/17/18 likely). No doubt there would have been a 2022 or 2021 2nd go back to them (so really that Demons pick is only a very minor upgrade). But pick 4, plus a future pick 6 is a pretty attractive offer.

I just google what the offer was and that was what came up. I didn't purposely omit it.

Rachelle, pick 4/5/6 this year, plus 16/17/18. I'd still go JHF.

Let's say we finish 17th. Ashcroft and Wardlaw go 1 and 2. It's a big if that Busslinger is universally rate 3. But let's assume he is and we think we have to take the next best mid. We then need the 4th pcik to say, "hey we want Bussy, let's swap pick and we'll give you our second". That relies on Essendon or whoever it is to divulge they want Bussy (and stick to it).

We're sort of moving into the territory of unlikely outcomes....

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

That’s the mindset that sees teams avoid kicks into the corridor, because they might get picked off. Better kick down the boundary to a contest, chances are it’ll get spoiled over the boundary, we’ll have a ruck contest. Play the percentages.

Sometimes you’ve just got to back yourself to take a risk.

 

[Chump Change]

That’s the mindset that sees teams avoid kicks into the corridor, because they might get picked off. Better kick down the boundary to a contest, chances are it’ll get spoiled over the boundary, we’ll have a ruck contest. Play the percentages.

Sometimes you’ve just got to back yourself to take a risk.

It's the mindset of giving the best chance of building a flag side. 1x A+ grader is more valuable that 2x A-graders.

 

[bh90210fan]

It's the mindset of giving the best chance of building a flag side. 1x A+ grader is more valuable that 2x A-graders.

If the only A+ graders available to us are either excess to list needs or massive flight risks it’s a better option to milk the pick for all you can

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

It's the mindset of giving the best chance of building a flag side. 1x A+ grader is more valuable that 2x A-graders.

Not every draft is the same. Just because pick 1 and pick 2 might produce a A+ grader (to bow to your obsession with assigning subjective grades to players) more often than pick ~8 doesn’t mean that’s true of the 2021 draft class.

Pick 2 may or may not end up an A+ grader. He might be an A grader, or a bust.

The players taken with the other picks might also end up as A+ graders, or A graders, or busts. Drafting is an inexact science. We see that all the time.

Based on your moneyball approach, in 2013 we don’t trade away pick 6 because a top ten pick is more likely to be a star than pick 11. Then we probably take Sheed with pick 6 anyway, because we rated him higher than the other guys around that range, that’s why we did the trade in the first place. Is Sheed somehow a better player because he’s taken at pick 6? No, he’s the exact same Dom Sheed.

So hypothetically this year, we get pick 2, if we don’t particularly rate Wardlaw, we know Ashcroft has nominated Brisbane, we feel Sheezel will be unhappy, unsettled and ask for a trade as soon as he can, but we rate (say) Philippou as this year’s Bontempelli equivalent and we think other clubs have underrated him…

On your moneyball approach we either take Philippou with pick 2, or we take one of the guys we’re not as wrapt with because the general consensus says we should. And whoever we take is more likely to become a star simply by virtue of the fact he was drafted at pick 2.

On a more balanced approach we trade down, hope that Philippou gets through, take him if he does, and take another quality kid to boot. We get the kid we rated at pick 2, and a bonus.

 

[bh90210fan]

Not every draft is the same. Just because pick 1 and pick 2 might produce a A+ grader (to bow to your obsession with assigning subjective grades to players) more often than pick ~8 doesn’t mean that’s true of the 2021 draft class.

Pick 2 may or may not end up an A+ grader. He might be an A grader, or a bust.

The players taken with the other picks might also end up as A+ graders, or A graders, or busts. Drafting is an inexact science. We see that all the time.

Based on your moneyball approach, in 2013 we don’t trade away pick 6 because a top ten pick is more likely to be a star than pick 11. Then we probably take Sheed with pick 6 anyway, because we rated him higher than the other guys around that range, that’s why we did the trade in the first place. Is Sheed somehow a better player because he’s taken at pick 6? No, he’s the exact same Dom Sheed.

So hypothetically this year, we get pick 2, if we don’t particularly rate Wardlaw, we know Ashcroft has nominated Brisbane, we feel Sheezel will be unhappy, unsettled and ask for a trade as soon as he can, but we rate (say) Philippou as this year’s Bontempelli equivalent and we think other clubs have underrated him…

On your moneyball approach we either take Philippou with pick 2, or we take one of the guys we’re not as wrapt with because the general consensus says we should. And whoever we take is more likely to become a star simply by virtue of the fact he was drafted at pick 2.

On a more balanced approach we trade down, hope that Philippou gets through, take him if he does, and take another quality kid to boot. We get the kid we rated at pick 2, and a bonus.

Not sure I agree with all of this. If we rate Phillipou as A+ talent, we don’t take any chances and just grab him.

Id only trade down in a scenario which the A+ talent doesn’t work for us for whatever reason and only trade down so far as we can’t miss out on the next best crop. So if we rated Hewett, Phillipou and Clark roughly the same, be willing to trade with whoever gives us the best deal from the bottom 6/7 clubs so we still end up with atleast one of them.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Not sure I agree with all of this. If we rate Phillipou as A+ talent, we don’t take any chances and just grab him.

Fair point. Your hypothetical - where there’s a bunch of players who we rate fairly equally - is a better example of why we might look to trade down.