Delistings - the unlucky 4

[CharlieCrow]

Now that the trades are done and we know exactly what we have to work with, let's ask the question again, Who are the unlucky four or should it be five or six ?

I think it is important to participate in this draft using three picks, or perhaps four or even five given that next year the draft will be compromised.

If it is four, then for me it's goodye Nick Gill, Greg Gallman, Aaron Kite and Jarrhan Jacky.

Robert Shirley could also be considered but he is still our best tagger, especially if you ask Gary Ablett and Chris Judd. Given his age, however, it may be time to move him along and train up one of our new chaps, eg Rory Sloane. He could then become number 5 giving us four picks. I can't see a sixth, although there hasbeen some chatter about Tom Lee on Big Footy.

In the background of this is the rookie draft, which we must also use to bolster up our youth. I believe we might be able to afford to choose more 'project' style players given that we have many excellent youngsters already and waiting their turn on our list.

Whatever happens, we must act wisely because we may have many retirements at the end of next year. Several, if not all, of McLeod, Goodwin, Edwards, Burton, Shirley, Doughty and even Hentschell will be considering their futures.

 

[WALL-e]

Jacky received a contract extension.

 

[SpiderHibs]

The Crows are normally pretty quick to announce the delistings after the trade period finishes. Sometimes within an hour or two. I don't think we'll have long to wait.

 

[King Elvis]

Didn't Jacky just get a new contract?

Shirley will probably go under the Torney/Hart rule; not because he deserves to.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Now that the trades are done and we know exactly what we have to work with, let's ask the question again, Who are the unlucky four or should it be five or six ?

I think it is important to participate in this draft using three picks, or perhaps four or even five given that next year the draft will be compromised.

If it is four, then for me it's goodye Nick Gill, Greg Gallman, Aaron Kite and Jarrhan Jacky.

Robert Shirley could also be considered but he is still our best tagger, especially if you ask Gary Ablett and Chris Judd. Given his age, however, it may be time to move him along and train up one of our new chaps, eg Rory Sloane. He could then become number 5 giving us four picks. I can't see a sixth, although there hasbeen some chatter about Tom Lee on Big Footy.

In the background of this is the rookie draft, which we must also use to bolster up our youth. I believe we might be able to afford to choose more 'project' style players given that we have many excellent youngsters already and waiting their turn on our list.

Whatever happens, we must act wisely because we may have many retirements at the end of next year. Several, if not all, of McLeod, Goodwin, Edwards, Burton, Shirley, Doughty and even Hentschell will be considering their futures.

Dude this draft IS compromised!

The GCFC has already signed up the best 17 year olds in the country and the eligibility age has increased which means all the bottom aged players are not not eligible for the draft. This has ensured that the draft this year is basically made up of some players that were not good enough to get drafted last year and a few that just snuck in under the current eligibility criteria.

Because of these restrictions this draft is NOT deep on talent and we have seen how much teams rate this draft pool during this week. Some teams couldn't give away their draft picks quick enough!

 

[amer]

Dude this draft IS compromised!

The GCFC has already signed up the best 17 year olds in the country and the eligibility age has increased which means all the bottom aged players are not not eligible for the draft. This has ensured that the draft this year is basically made up of some players that were not good enough to get drafted last year and a few that just snuck in under the current eligibility criteria.

Because of these restrictions this draft is NOT deep on talent and we have seen how much teams rate this draft pool during this week. Some teams couldn't give away their draft picks quick enough!

Doesn't change the fact that Rendell will pick up a triple Brownlow medal winning quad premiership player. His name will be Philtrick Daverfield and his living in a secluded shack not far from the site of Ned Kelly's death, playing a tagging role in games against the local bush animals will ensure that he slides to pick 13

 

[craig crowing]

Dude this draft IS compromised!

The GCFC has already signed up the best 17 year olds in the country and the eligibility age has increased which means all the bottom aged players are not not eligible for the draft. This has ensured that the draft this year is basically made up of some players that were not good enough to get drafted last year and a few that just snuck in under the current eligibility criteria.

Because of these restrictions this draft is NOT deep on talent and we have seen how much teams rate this draft pool during this week. Some teams couldn't give away their draft picks quick enough!

Yes but doesnt get any easier over next 2-3 years especially next year although talent might have more depth GC take big chunk along with at least 2 of our fab 30+ probably going to retire and some with contracts yet to totally impress the Crows need to make at least 4 delists to avoid too many needing to be cut next year.
Shirley Gallman Gill are certainities and Kite almost for sure but has any first year draftee ever done worse than Lee this year.
Without knowing properly think there might be more in this draft than think. Possibly look at a mature recruit ie 20 -24 age .
I wonder what posters thoughts of Stansbury of Centrals ex Nth Melb as a gamble low draft pick . Played well against Sturt in both Finals and good finisher

 

[slippery crow]

actually I've never been a fan of the PSD however this year I wouldn't mind the crows having a pick up their sleeve, I have a feeling there may be a player or two worth taking a punt on

 

[Mismatched]

Macca

Just adding to your note, this years draftees tested on average higher than any other group for endurance, the average beep test was in the high 14's

Yeah, but this is just as likely to be because there is a genuine lack of footballing talent and hence to fill up the 70 odd spots at the camp, the clubs are having to look at the pure athletes, more so than those with genuine talent, who could potentially be turned into good footballers(ie the Moran's/Kite's of this world).

I agree with you, as I said in a earlier post I am yet to find a club that hasnt taken 4 picks either 3 in the draft and 1 in the PSD or 4 at the draft.

We have upgraded Martin and as a consequence for keeping many of our top end players we will have to move more of the lower tier players on. I do think that we could delist four and trade Griff for a second rounder which would give us 4 picks in the first three rounds.

Hawthorn won the flag in 08 and had five picks, Geelong had four after winning 07. If we only had two picks in the draft I think it would be terrible list management we need to keep turning our list over like every other club does.

Haven't looked very hard then, Sydney and the Bulldogs only had 3 each last year, with none in the PSD. The year before Collingwood and Hawthorn both had 3 picks. Plenty of cases, Hawthorn in fact went on to win the premiership, following theirs.

actually I've never been a fan of the PSD however this year I wouldn't mind the crows having a pick up their sleeve, I have a feeling there may be a player or two worth taking a punt on

Chances are the same players will be available in the ND, as will be in the PSD, so might as well take them a month early so they can get some decent training done pre-christmas.

FWIW, I think we'll go into the draft with 3 picks, meaning that Gill, Gallman, Shirley and Kite get the chop. Hopefully, as has happened in previous years, someone from Rendells top 25-30 will survive through till our 3rd pick.

One thing I think might happen, considering we'll have a few vacancies open up next year, is that if McKernan, Davis and Walker come on as we all hope, we might trade one or both of Hentschel/Stevens to the GC/other clubs, for multiple late first/second round picks, so that we won't be having to use too many late picks. As if these three young ones do come on, I think the likes of Stevens and Hentschel might struggle to get a game, but could bring some quite valuable experience to a GC side who will be stacked with blokes under the age of 20.

 

[relapse]

Yeah, but this is just as likely to be because there is a genuine lack of footballing talent and hence to fill up the 70 odd spots at the camp, the clubs are having to look at the pure athletes, more so than those with genuine talent, who could potentially be turned into good footballers(ie the Moran's/Kite's of this world).



Haven't looked very hard then, Sydney and the Bulldogs only had 3 each last year, with none in the PSD. The year before Collingwood and Hawthorn both had 3 picks. Plenty of cases, Hawthorn in fact went on to win the premiership, following theirs.



Chances are the same players will be available in the ND, as will be in the PSD, so might as well take them a month early so they can get some decent training done pre-christmas.

FWIW, I think we'll go into the draft with 3 picks, meaning that Gill, Gallman, Shirley and Kite get the chop. Hopefully, as has happened in previous years, someone from Rendells top 25-30 will survive through till our 3rd pick.

One thing I think might happen, considering we'll have a few vacancies open up next year, is that if McKernan, Davis and Walker come on as we all hope, we might trade one or both of Hentschel/Stevens to the GC/other clubs, for multiple late first/second round picks, so that we won't be having to use too many late picks. As if these three young ones do come on, I think the likes of Stevens and Hentschel might struggle to get a game, but could bring some quite valuable experience to a GC side who will be stacked with blokes under the age of 20.

okay there are a some rare instances BUT 2 of them were clubs that traded one of their picks for a player. The fact is that it is a rare occurance.

 

[Mismatched]

okay there are a some rare instances BUT 2 of them were clubs that traded one of their picks for a player. The fact is that it is a rare occurance.

Okay, lets go back further, Fremantle did it in the 06 draft, although that was billed as the Superdraft to end all Superdrafts, lots of clubs took in heaps of picks that year. The year before in 05, Sydney, Fremantle and West Coast all took in only 3 picks. Melbourne, Geelong and Sydney did it the year before, should I go any further back?(In 03 there was 2 clubs, 02 also had 2 clubs, even in the Superdraft of 01, 1 club still chose to only go in with 3 picks)

So on average, between 2 and 3 clubs have take only 3 picks into the National Draft a year, that hardly counts as a rare occurance. The fact is, this is hardly a rare occurance at all, not even in years where we've supposedly had "superdrafts" (01, 06 and 08) there's been at least 1 club going in with only three. This year will probably set a precedance in terms of the number of clubs taking 3(or even 2) draft picks, as evidenced by how active most were in trade week, this just isn't a draft clubs are particularly keen to be a part of.

The last 3-5 years have been the years to stock up on young talent through the draft, which we have done and IMO have done quite well. This year is nothing more than a year to top up your list with a couple of solid youngsters, that can hopefully get you through the GC17/WS18 period. If you can get away with it, its the year to take as few picks into the draft as possible.

 

[CharlieCrow]

Hmmmmmmmm. I would not assume to predict the value in any given draft. Sure, some have been better than others but in every draft there are gems and there are duds.

The following were picked late (late = not in the top twenty where you would expect the good ones to come from) Sloane at pick 44, McKernan at 28, Cook at 30, Armstrong at 58, Tippet at 32, MacKay at 48 (even Gill at 64), Vince at 32, Maric at 40 and Knights at 56, Hudson at 58, Shirley at 56 and Johncock at 67.

Have faith in Matthew Rendell - give him four picks - and I reckon we might just do OK.

 

[NTRabbit]

At the moment, with Brodie Martin elevated, I'm not expecting us to use pick 45

Expecting Gill + Gallman + 1 to go, and that's all (since they've already done all the rookie movements). Late money suggests Kite might be number three.

 

[macca23]

At the moment, with Brodie Martin elevated, I'm not expecting us to use pick 45

Expecting Gill + Gallman + 1 to go, and that's all (since they've already done all the rookie movements). Late money suggests Kite might be number three.

If Griffin had been traded for a pick in the 20's then I think Shirley might have survived.

I think we will take 3 picks - 13,29, and 45 which means that 4 players have to be delisted, and sadly for Shirley that means he and Kite will join Gill and Gallman in the ex-AFL footballers ranks.

Shirley probably deserves another year but to be able to play young-uns like Sloane, Cook, Armstrong, Petrenko etc we have to create opportunity.

I might be wrong, but I think we will take 3 picks for this reason.

 

[relapse]

Okay, lets go back further, Fremantle did it in the 06 draft, although that was billed as the Superdraft to end all Superdrafts, lots of clubs took in heaps of picks that year. The year before in 05, Sydney, Fremantle and West Coast all took in only 3 picks. Melbourne, Geelong and Sydney did it the year before, should I go any further back?(In 03 there was 2 clubs, 02 also had 2 clubs, even in the Superdraft of 01, 1 club still chose to only go in with 3 picks)

So on average, between 2 and 3 clubs have take only 3 picks into the National Draft a year, that hardly counts as a rare occurance. The fact is, this is hardly a rare occurance at all, not even in years where we've supposedly had "superdrafts" (01, 06 and 08) there's been at least 1 club going in with only three. This year will probably set a precedance in terms of the number of clubs taking 3(or even 2) draft picks, as evidenced by how active most were in trade week, this just isn't a draft clubs are particularly keen to be a part of.

The last 3-5 years have been the years to stock up on young talent through the draft, which we have done and IMO have done quite well. This year is nothing more than a year to top up your list with a couple of solid youngsters, that can hopefully get you through the GC17/WS18 period. If you can get away with it, its the year to take as few picks into the draft as possible.

There are less clubs than you are stating, as you are overlooking the ones that traded draft picks for players ie Freo in 2006 where they traded draft picks for Tarrant and Solomon so while they only drafted 3 players they used 5 picks because they traded 2 on them on.

I still maintain that we will delist 5 players, though I guess it could be four, but wont be any less than that. Griff not being traded has meant we will have to cut one more player than we would have planned to.

 

[relapse]

If Griffin had been traded for a pick in the 20's then I think Shirley might have survived.

I think we will take 3 picks - 13,29, and 45 which means that 4 players have to be delisted, and sadly for Shirley that means he and Kite will join Gill and Gallman in the ex-AFL footballers ranks.

Shirley probably deserves another year but to be able to play young-uns like Sloane, Cook, Armstrong, Petrenko etc we have to create opportunity.

I might be wrong, but I think we will take 3 picks for this reason.

Definately three picks as a minimum, if we only delist three players and take 2 draft picks we wouldnt be turning over our list enough and I think due to our situation we need to continue to turn our list over given that we will have to replace anywhere from 3-5 positions in 2011.

It all seems to point to Shirley being the one the take the bullet because of all the seniors playing on next year and Dogga having a two year deal. I think we should have moved at least 2 of them on, but the club seems to be at least moving one on which is the correct move.

Given the midfield zones, players who are primary shut down type players are almost a thing of the past

 

[Macjoe]

If Griffin had been traded for a pick in the 20's then I think Shirley might have survived.

I think we will take 3 picks - 13,29, and 45 which means that 4 players have to be delisted, and sadly for Shirley that means he and Kite will join Gill and Gallman in the ex-AFL footballers ranks.

Shirley probably deserves another year but to be able to play young-uns like Sloane, Cook, Armstrong, Petrenko etc we have to create opportunity.

I might be wrong, but I think we will take 3 picks for this reason.

Yes. Sad but true, I fear.

 

[Vader]

I still maintain that we will delist 5 players, though I guess it could be four, but wont be any less than that. Griff not being traded has meant we will have to cut one more player than we would have planned to.

We will either be delisting 3 or 4, leaving us with 2 or 3 selections in the ND. The draft is so weak that there's just no point in going for a 4th selection - we're better off holding onto the player we already have on our list.

 

[Mismatched]

Hmmmmmmmm. I would not assume to predict the value in any given draft. Sure, some have been better than others but in every draft there are gems and there are duds.

The following were picked late (late = not in the top twenty where you would expect the good ones to come from) Sloane at pick 44, McKernan at 28, Cook at 30, Armstrong at 58, Tippet at 32, MacKay at 48 (even Gill at 64), Vince at 32, Maric at 40 and Knights at 56, Hudson at 58, Shirley at 56 and Johncock at 67.

Have faith in Matthew Rendell - give him four picks - and I reckon we might just do OK.

But this draft is not like any other draft, when compared to previous drafts it has only 2/3's of the talent pool. Whilst there's nothing to say it couldn't be the best draft ever still, its just extremely unlikely

There are less clubs than you are stating, as you are overlooking the ones that traded draft picks for players ie Freo in 2006 where they traded draft picks for Tarrant and Solomon so while they only drafted 3 players they used 5 picks because they traded 2 on them on.

I still maintain that we will delist 5 players, though I guess it could be four, but wont be any less than that. Griff not being traded has meant we will have to cut one more player than we would have planned to.

Stop clasping at straws there relapse, it is not unusual for clubs to make the bare minimum changes to their list. There is absolutely no reason to make changes, just for the sake of making changes. You claimed that clubs never go into drafts with only 3 picks, and yet the last draft without a club to make 3 picks was 1997.

I also fail to see how club trading picks predraft has much relevance. What's to say that, given the choice, Fremantle wouldn't have prefered to just make 3 changes(2 trades and 1 draft pick) to their list, absolutely nothing, unless of course you were in the Fremantle inner sanctum. Following making those trades, they were forced to make 3 more changes as they had to have 3 picks. I'm sure there are clubs out there in the past 10 years, who given the choice, would have made less than 3 changes. Yes they made 5 changes, but there's nothing to say that they actually wanted to make those 5 changes, they may have just thought acquiring Tarrant and Solomon was worth having to make those extra changes.

If a club is confident in their list and doesn't believe that they can improve it through making a trade or using more than the required picks, then I see absolutely no reason why they should make these extra picks just to "turn over the list". I know its boring to go through trade week without a trade and for us to only go into the draft with 2 or 3 picks, just as its boring to play all the old faces and not debut a new player every week. But this is a business, whose aim it is to win a premiership, not keep fans "excited" with intricate trades and 12 new draftees each year. (Sorry, I feel a rant coming on and this isn't necessarily to do with you relapse)

Our goal is to maximise the quality of our list and if our honest, well thought out and analysed assessment is that the best way to do this it to make the bare minimum changes, then that is the way to go, no matter what everyone else does, or what the public think we should do. Would you have prefered Rendell to have picked up Ebert, just because everyone else rated him higher than Dangerfield and thought we should pick him up?

I think we will make 4 changes, 3 picks and the Martin upgrade. But then I'm not going to act like the bloody sky is falling down if they decide to only go in with two picks, as quite frankly, those at the Adelaide footy club are in a far better position to make this decision than I am, or anyone else. Far too many of us here and in the public, seem to act like the AFC have absolutely no idea what they are doing, that we are run by a bunch of 2nd rate ammatuers and that our opinions are worth more than those whose job it is to manage our list. We are supporters of our club, sure we should question what we are doing, but don't act like the club doesn't know what its doing, trust that it does. If you don't like the direction the club is going in and all you can do is criticise, maybe its time for a new club.

End Rant.

 

[NTRabbit]

We will either be delisting 3 or 4, leaving us with 2 or 3 selections in the ND. The draft is so weak that there's just no point in going for a 4th selection - we're better off holding onto the player we already have on our list.

Which is why it looks highly unlikely that Shirley will be delisted, unless all the rumblings about Kite are false.

Better off with Shirley than a 3rd rounder with a high chance of being a spud - Shirley is better as a starter, better as depth, and unlike a new draftee can be cut after one season, instead of two.

 

[Mego Red]

Which is why it looks highly unlikely that Shirley will be delisted, unless all the rumblings about Kite are false.

Better off with Shirley than a 3rd rounder with a high chance of being a spud - Shirley is better as a starter, better as depth, and unlike a new draftee can be cut after one season, instead of two.

Shirley HAS to go this year, unless we want to add him to the eight to ten players that need to be delisted in the next two years for age reasons. Delisted for a third rounder now, or a sixth rounder in a year or twos time.

 

[Crow-mo]

Doesn't change the fact that Rendell will pick up a triple Brownlow medal winning quad premiership player. His name will be Philtrick Daverfield and his living in a secluded shack not far from the site of Ned Kelly's death, playing a tagging role in games against the local bush animals will ensure that he slides to pick 13

lol

 

[Crow-mo]

Okay, lets go back further, Fremantle did it in the 06 draft, although that was billed as the Superdraft to end all Superdrafts, lots of clubs took in heaps of picks that year. The year before in 05, Sydney, Fremantle and West Coast all took in only 3 picks. Melbourne, Geelong and Sydney did it the year before, should I go any further back?(In 03 there was 2 clubs, 02 also had 2 clubs, even in the Superdraft of 01, 1 club still chose to only go in with 3 picks)

So on average, between 2 and 3 clubs have take only 3 picks into the National Draft a year, that hardly counts as a rare occurance. The fact is, this is hardly a rare occurance at all, not even in years where we've supposedly had "superdrafts" (01, 06 and 08) there's been at least 1 club going in with only three. This year will probably set a precedance in terms of the number of clubs taking 3(or even 2) draft picks, as evidenced by how active most were in trade week, this just isn't a draft clubs are particularly keen to be a part of.

The last 3-5 years have been the years to stock up on young talent through the draft, which we have done and IMO have done quite well. This year is nothing more than a year to top up your list with a couple of solid youngsters, that can hopefully get you through the GC17/WS18 period. If you can get away with it, its the year to take as few picks into the draft as possible.

good post

 

[Crow-mo]

Shirley HAS to go this year, unless we want to add him to the eight to ten players that need to be delisted in the next two years for age reasons. Delisted for a third rounder now, or a sixth rounder in a year or twos time.

why does he have to go?

he's still performing, and doesn't have an obvious replacement (yet) who is anything other than todger tackling speculation.

yeah, maybe we will say time is up. but I don't see any reason, why he has to go. as if there is only one logical outcome.

 

[amer]

James_37 - your point regarding the role of this year's draft to clubs entering an extended period of gimped selection opportunities is a fine one.

Whenever someone makes mention of draft concessions I can't help but think about how impeccable our timing has been, and what dire trouble so many other clubs are about to find themselves in when they begin going to the well for list replenishment now, rather than a few years ago. Sydney, Port Adelaide, and I include Geelong in this. Clubs that claim the next few drafts are crucial to their fortunes.

If your club is looking to stock up on talent for a rebuild between now and when the concessions are relaxed, it's the brown stuff they'll find themselves sitting in. Geelong is up now, but when they fall it'll be hard and fast, and the way back will be a path as winding as you'll see.