Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[Freomaniac]

Stop tagging me weirdo.

I tagged you for a reason and I am happy to drag Spuddigger and his corpse into this....

Posters like you crapped on me back in 2016-18 about 5 year rebuilds or teams spending 5 years in a row not making finals.

The amount of Arrogance on that was Hilarious.

West coast are never down for long... This isnt 2000-01 rebuild where your team spend 2 years out of finals, Limped your way into finals in 2002 with 11 wins off the back of those 1990s stalwarts.

this isnt 2008-10 rebuild where they were bottom 4 or 6 for 3 seasons. Made finals in 2011 and 2012 off the back of those 2002-7 veterans too.

This eagles rebuild will take a while

 

[Freomaniac]

Not so sure about that.

North Melbourne targetted the drafts before expansion to get Ziebell, Cunnington etc so they were prepared for expansion. That's when Richmond were built too with Dusty, Cotchin, Riewoldt. And the Tigers picked great players out of Gold Coast like Prestia, Caddy (via Geel), Lynch.

Melbourne only really had Gawn left from pre expansion. As every draft pick around him from 2007-2009 went to ruin (or got old in the case of Jetta).

Melbourne's big guns came from 2012 -2015. Viney, Hogan (which in fairness came from Scully then became May) in 2012 tied up in mini drafts and so on. Then Salem, Petracca, Oliver post expansion.

The Dogs - Bont, Macrae, Stringer - came in the 2012-2013 just after expansion drafts. With some help from father sons in Libba and Hunter.

Wines 2012, although Port are more of a mixed bag of the old and new.

Brisbane's young talent have all best post expansion. Same with Freo.

There's an argument to be made that Hawthorn stayed too long at the top due to expansion. No other super team got the top up they needed around 2010-2011 that would've had them in better shape for 2013-2015. If that's the case then maybe Hawthorn will now stay longer at the bottom because they were artificially up too long. Although that's hard to really decipher because the Hawks went hard at trading to stay up.

Freo might've stayed too long at the top too and crashed hard on the way down because of a lack of talent added in 2010-2012. Although with Freo that happened because they picked the wrong guys and had terrible injury luck as much as the draft.

North maybe the same. They stayed up a long time under Brad Scott. Then crashed super hard because there was a gaping huge hole in the 24-27 year olds on their list.

Richmond got the best high end talent from 06-09 though. The Dogs from 10-13. The Demons from 12-15. Who comes next?

Brisbane with Hipwood, McCluggage, Rayner, Berry, Bailey etc still have a great claim. Freo had something going with Brayshaw, Cerra, Serong, Young but there might be a ceiling there and losing Cerra hurts. Carlton are still in consideration with Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Walsh and likely adding Cerra. North will add their names to this list in the next 24 months. Grabbing a bunch of elite players in a short form of time is still the best strategy.

Freo Stayed too long at the top in 2012-15? I Disagree... I will savour the dockers 2010-15 finals period.

2010, made finals with a very young list and plenty of blokes in that 2008 draft.

2011, was 9 wins and 6 losses. lost the last 7 games injuries. sacked Mark Harvey and Brought in Ross Lyon.

2012, made finals. 7th spot with 14 wins. won an elim final at the mcg lost the semi final.

2013, made top 4. beat the cats in Geelong in the qf. won the home prelim finalvs the swans. lost the grand final.

2014, made 4th, lost to swans in the QF, Lost to Port in the semi final.

2015, 9-0 after 9 games. finished top, but was faltering in the 2nd half of the season. Won the QF vs swans, lost to the hawks in the prelim final.

2016, Went 0-10 and crippled with injuries. 4 wins and 18 losses and 16th spot was posted. Still bitter about that season. I could of tolerated 16th spot. But with 6 or 7 wins and a win or 2 by round 6.

You said the dockers crashed down in 2016 due to not enough decent talent picked up in 2010-12. you are correct to a degree....

But Freos drafting in the 1st round from 2007-14 is Poor.

2007: Rhys Palmer. Solid 10 year career.

2008: Stephen Hill. a solid 13 year career at the dockers from 2009-21.

2009: Anthony Morabito. Awesome 2010 season. then didnt play a game in 2011, 2012 and 2013 due to multiple injuries.

2010: Jayden Pitt was a skinny tall flanker from Victoria. Jack Darling is the bloke we should of taken.

2011: Tom Sheridan at 16. Played 81 games for freo from 2012-18.

2012: Josh Simpson. Unbelievable talent could of been an elite Indigenous winger like Brad or Stephen hill. Impatience and attittude problems were the issues.

2013: Michael Apeness. Originally prayed that cam McCarthy went to us, he went to GWS at pick 12 or 13. Apeness is a 200 cm 100 kg kpf ruck. Made sense to get him at the time to help an aging Matthew Pavlich. Like Morabito, injuries stuffed him.

2014, Lachie weller. Had talent played 47 games for the dockers. went to the Gold coast suns.

 

[Lia]

Freo Stayed too long at the top in 2012-15? I Disagree... I will savour the dockers 2010-15 finals period.

2010, made finals with a very young list and plenty of blokes in that 2008 draft.

2011, was 9 wins and 6 losses. lost the last 7 games injuries. sacked Mark Harvey and Brought in Ross Lyon.

2012, made finals. 7th spot with 14 wins. won an elim final at the mcg lost the semi final.

2013, made top 4. beat the cats in Geelong in the qf. won the home prelim finalvs the swans. lost the grand final.

2014, made 4th, lost to swans in the QF, Lost to Port in the semi final.

2015, 9-0 after 9 games. finished top, but was faltering in the 2nd half of the season. Won the QF vs swans, lost to the hawks in the prelim final.

2016, Went 0-10 and crippled with injuries. 4 wins and 18 losses and 16th spot was posted. Still bitter about that season. I could of tolerated 16th spot. But with 6 or 7 wins and a win or 2 by round 6.

You said the dockers crashed down in 2016 due to not enough decent talent picked up in 2010-12. you are correct to a degree....

But Freos drafting in the 1st round from 2007-14 is Poor.

2007: Rhys Palmer. Solid 10 year career.

2008: Stephen Hill. a solid 13 year career at the dockers from 2009-21.

2009: Anthony Morabito. Awesome 2010 season. then didnt play a game in 2011, 2012 and 2013 due to multiple injuries.

2010: Jayden Pitt was a skinny tall flanker from Victoria. Jack Darling is the bloke we should of taken.

2011: Tom Sheridan at 16. Played 81 games for freo from 2012-18.

2012: Josh Simpson. Unbelievable talent could of been an elite Indigenous winger like Brad or Stephen hill. Impatience and attittude problems were the issues.

2013: Michael Apeness. Originally prayed that cam McCarthy went to us, he went to GWS at pick 12 or 13. Apeness is a 200 cm 100 kg kpf ruck. Made sense to get him at the time to help an aging Matthew Pavlich. Like Morabito, injuries stuffed him.

2014, Lachie weller. Had talent played 47 games for the dockers. went to the Gold coast suns.

Good to see that whether we are good or we are dire you will still be whinging about your 2016 season.

 

[Freomaniac]

If everything goes smoothly to plan you can turn over a list to return to finals in as little as 2-3 years. There are plenty examples of this (Hawks 04-07, Dogs 11-14, Freo 08-10, WCE 08-10). Or you could have the access to talent Sydney does and do it in 1 or 2.

Freo’s most recent build was drawn out to 6 years on the back of key players leaving, fluffing some trades (Hogan), transitioning to a new coach right in the middle of it, and injuries to developing players. But a heavy draft focus in recent years and finally having everyone pulling in the same direction in the last 2-3 years since Longmuir has brought them out of it.

Teams like WCE, Port/Giants or Geelong potentially embarking on a rebuild need to have a really strong direction coming from the top that sees them stay the course throughout the week to week media knee jerk that tries to sack everyone after a bad result. If the coach isn’t the right guy for the next 4-5 years get rid of them now because replacing them 2 years in on the back of a few bad results which is to be expected during a turnover period shows lack of leadership and just prolongs the rebuild.

Also ‘blowing it up’ and trading everyone like the media is trying to tell West Coast this week is dumb, you need senior players to see through the transition and set standards at training , and if the club can see them still performing in 3 years they will be a part of leading the new wave .

solid post mate

 

[speedy]

In this age you cannot rebuild with early draft picks alone, when the top (and/or popular) teams can replenish with free agency, cheap father sons, academy players and/or gift wrapped trades from the expansion teams.

 

[Freomaniac]

In this age you cannot rebuild with early draft picks alone, when the top (and/or popular) teams can replenish with free agency, cheap father sons, academy players and/or gift wrapped trades from the expansion teams.

Yeah well true.

It's like comparing the crows 2012 squad to the Carlton blues 2002 squad. Both were done by salary cap scandals. Yet one team quickly recovered compared to the other.

Carlton's 2002 squad had an ageing list. So being stripped of 1st round and 2nd round picks in 2002-04 hurt them. That denied them 6 decent kids.

Had Carlton drafted well in the 1997-99 drafts that is potentially 6-12 blokes aged 21 to 26 they could of had to trade. It took them until 2009 to make finals so from 2002-09, that's 8 years of no finals.

Crows got done for the Kurt Tippet fiasco. Denied 1st and 2nd rounders in 2012-3.

Yet..... They didn't spend 5-8 years down the gutter. They made finals in 2015-7.

How come the crows had a quick recovery? Nailing the 2007-9 drafts. They had guys like Dangerfield, Taylor Walker, Phil Davis, Rory Sloane, Daniel Talia and Jack Gunston as decent kids coming through. Some were traded or left by free agency.

 

[Freomaniac]

I am not really sure what the AFL system could do to facilitate a rebuild quicker. We have the draft system that clearly offers plenty of opportunities to get your list topped up with enough youth. At that point it really comes down to development from within clubs as one factor to promote their young players. You need a mix of 23-28 year olds who have been in the system for 5-10 years who have had exposure to the system and can make the bulk of your list you should rely on.

You’re then putting young developing players at one end and experienced vets at the other. Within the main group you need balance. Height, inside and outside players etc. There’s obviously more to it of course, and you need total buy in that the group wants to go somewhere etc. I think if WA and SA players are struggling to retain talent then they need to draft locally, for example we’ve lost Jackson and we may lose Pickett. That’s natural attrition but can hurt.

Many clubs have bought the negativity and flat periods on themselves. Melbourne and Carlton spring to mind. Tanking, poor governance etc. Also, good changes in coaching have buoyed clubs like St Kilda to start improving rapidly. Adelaide are a club that looks to have recruited well and developed well. Fogarty (local) Rankine (traded) are home grown products. Rachele is one they need to keep and you can’t do much if he wants out. Mind you, I think the go home to family is a bit pathetic.

Some clubs just continue to stay in contention, Geelong, Sydney. There’s clearly no concept of rebuilding there. It’s just topping up the list constantly. The development is also sensational. GC is a fair mess but I think that’s their own doing. Good to see Essendon showing more now. Again, it’s coaching. It sounds obvious but coaching is underrated; Lyon and Scott are making things happen and Nicks is seeing the benefit of a developing list and persistence with a style that’s taken a few years to get right.

What do you expect? A quick turnaround for the likes of North Melbourne and west coast eagles?

Look at the league?

There's 18 sides.

8 teams make finals. 10 sides don't make finals.

Less than 50 percent chance of making finals.

Then Tassie comes in to be team 19. Then 20th side comes in.

8 teams make finals , 12 teams miss out.

40 percent chance of making finals.

General Giant that's Steiner maths right there lol

 

[Colonial]

What do you expect? A quick turnaround for the likes of North Melbourne and west coast eagles?

Look at the league?

There's 18 sides.

8 teams make finals. 10 sides don't make finals.

Less than 50 percent chance of making finals.

Then Tassie comes in to be team 19. Then 20th side comes in.

8 teams make finals , 12 teams miss out.

40 percent chance of making finals.

General Giant that's Steiner maths right there lol

Surely a 10 team finals once we hit 20 clubs.

 

[Freomaniac]

Geelong also have the added advantage of their location, they have been really good at recruiting and maintaining players who are willing to accept less coin to have the lifestyle the club can provide.

Crows won back to back flags in 1997-8 with excellent local recruiting in the SANFL.

Eagles made grand finals in 1991, 1992 and 1994 due to excellent recruitment of locals in the WAFL.

1992 was significantly huge in the AFL. It was the year a non Vic side sent the premiership out of Victoria for the 1st time.

It's also the 1st time the TAC cup or Victorian country league was formed.

I have no doubt AFL have pumped millions of dollars into investment in grassroots Victorian footy.

Why won't the AFL invest 10 million a year to SA or WA in grassroots footy?

 

[Freomaniac]

Surely a 10 team finals once we hit 20 clubs.

So.... A play off round? 7 vs 10th on Friday night and 8th vs 9th on Saturday night?

 

[Colonial]

I have no doubt AFL have pumped millions of dollars into investment in grassroots Victorian footy.

Why won't the AFL invest 10 million a year to SA or WA in grassroots footy?

Think you answered you’re own question there.

Promotion and grassroots is even lacklustre in the supposed AFL dream that is Sydney.

 

[Colonial]

So.... A play off round? 7 vs 10th on Friday night and 8th vs 9th on Saturday night?

Something to keep it clubs in it.

 

[H00t]

Definitely takes a long time to rebuild completely from the ground up but there’s a lot of new ways to build especially with the MSD and free agency.

There’s so many ways to stay up now days the challenge for clubs is to not let it get so bad that they need to do a full rebuild.

As long as clubs keep developing players each year they shouldn’t drop too badly unless they sacrifice a lot for the current like the hawks or eagles did or fail to develop players like north.

 

[demondavey]

What do you expect? A quick turnaround for the likes of North Melbourne and west coast eagles?

Look at the league?

There's 18 sides.

8 teams make finals. 10 sides don't make finals.

Less than 50 percent chance of making finals.

Then Tassie comes in to be team 19. Then 20th side comes in.

8 teams make finals , 12 teams miss out.

40 percent chance of making finals.

General Giant that's Steiner maths right there lol

What the hell is your point?

 

[Freomaniac]

What the hell is your point?

I guess you didn't read my post.

My point is, less than 50 percent chance to make finals.

It's not like 1995-2010 when it's 8 finals spots and 8 teams miss out. Power house non Vic sides like the crows miss out on finals for 2 or 3 years then make finals again.

It will be common for sides to miss out on finals for 5-8 seasons in a row, sometimes 10.

 

[Freomaniac]

Definitely takes a long time to rebuild completely from the ground up but there’s a lot of new ways to build especially with the MSD and free agency.

There’s so many ways to stay up now days the challenge for clubs is to not let it get so bad that they need to do a full rebuild.

As long as clubs keep developing players each year they shouldn’t drop too badly unless they sacrifice a lot for the current like the hawks or eagles did or fail to develop players like north.

Hawks are a good example.

Hawks 2011-6 side made 4 grand finals for 3 flags. They nailed their times of contention.

On the other hand their last finals win was the 2015 grand final.

After that, it was 2 finals losses in 2016, bottom 6 in 2017 and 2 losses in 2018.

9th in 2019 then a full rebuild since 2020.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Hawks are a good example.

Hawks 2011-6 side made 4 grand finals for 3 flags. They nailed their times of contention.

On the other hand their last finals win was the 2015 grand final.

After that, it was 2 finals losses in 2016, bottom 6 in 2017 and 2 losses in 2018.

9th in 2019 then a full rebuild since 2020.

Rolled the dice big time on going for Mitchell, O’Meara and Wingard. All good players but torched their draft hand for a few years and right now the players they would have taken would be say 22-24. Would be much further advanced.

 

[Freomaniac]

Rolled the dice big time on going for Mitchell, O’Meara and Wingard. All good players but torched their draft hand for a few years and right now the players they would have taken would be say 22-24. Would be much further advanced.

You might as well say the same thing about the eagles and the Tim Kelly trade in the end of 2019.

Ironically Jager O Meara is at the dockers. But yeah that pick 6 in 2017 would-be handy for the hawks.

Chad Wingard trade.... Chad Wingard and 2019 3rd for Ryan Burton, pick 15, pick 35 and 2019 4th rounder. Pick 15 could of landed them a Xavier Duursma or a Sam Sturt.

Wonder what the hawks would of chosen at picks 15 and 35? At least 2 solid players with 5 years of development. Who knows?

 

[STRONGandBALD]

Depends what for. To win a flag or multiple, it takes a really long time. To just bounce back and make finals but make up the numbers, it doesn’t take long.

 

[LordLucifer]

I may have posted something along these lines earlier in the thread but I can't find my post so if I have, apologies.

The system is geared around equalisation which no-one should disagree with. However, there is a long period of time between being the wooden-spooner & a premier due to the current mechanisms. The other aspect that comes into play is the issue of the AFL handing out assistance via priority picks and other random schemes. Add in to that Free Agency and it is a bit of a sh1tshow overall.

Let's be clear about this, IMO, clubs should never be compensated for poor management, they created the mess they are in so they should be made to dig themselves out of it. As it stands, you make stupid decisions in list management, cry poor and the AFL rewards you for the unprofessional behaviours.

If I was in charge of the AFL, I'd be making some strategic changes to the way the draft & FA works that give clubs an opportunity to repair their lists though good management whilst removing the "welfare" angle as well. Here are the strategies I would implement :

1. Qualification for 'father-son' selection goes back down to the playing of one senior game, what a load of bollocks it is that they have had to have played 100-games. Under this current system, games 1-99 are not considered worthwhile or valid. Furthermore, if the father played for more than one club, then it is the club he played the most games for who gets first right of refusal.

2. Completely scrap the ability for ckubs to apply for assistance via priority picks and draft concesssions. If you got yourself into this mess then you have to get yourself out of it with some smart decision-making. For way too long, all the clubs with good management & shrewd administrators are penalised because of the current handout system, its time they were rewarded for their professionalism & business acumen.

3. Review & change the qualification for Free Agency because at present, we have players moving clubs reasonably quickly and far too often from a bottom half club to a top half club. Make it after 10-years of consecutive service at the one club, remove the 'restricted' part as well.

Scrap the compensation pick for losing a player via FA, not only is it a farce that it exists, the random 'secret herbs & spices' formula used to determine the compensation is unfair, inconsistent & makes all of the other clubs pay a penalty in the draft order.

4. Clubs can trade players to whoever they like whenever they like without the player's consent, the system is skewed way too much in the player's favour currently. However, this only applies to players in the top third of the salary allocation (or something like that), it would be grossly unfair to ship out a player on minimum wage to the other side of the country. The guys on the big bucks are not impacted by such a move. The rationale here is that should a club be faced with a unique deal that will help them recover lost ground (eg. trade one of their few gun senior players for three first rounders) then they should be able to do it without the player having a say in it.

5. NGA & all of those other weirdo trumped up schemes are not available to clubs outside of NSW & QLD. The clubs in the northern states require a leg-up to assist with the overall growth of the game especially as I believe there will be another 2-3 clubs relocated/created there. At present, we see southern clubs plucking some guy from Upper Cumbuckta West and claiming him as some special project player which is just a ****ing rort.

6. All clubs who DO NOT play finals (currently positions 9-18) receive an additional "equalisation" draft pick prior to the first round of the National Draft, it is allocated in reverse ladder order in the same way the ND works. It is their choice whether they want to use it or trade it for players etc. If the AFL competition grows to say ...........20 teams with 10 finalists, then the pre-draft equalisation round will apply to ladder positions 11-20.

By implementing this scheme, in affect, all non-finalists are given a 'priority pick' so there is no need to ask for one so there is complete transparency in the assistance/welfare system.

 

[Freomaniac]

Richmond's 2017 premiership 22 had 4 players aged under 23 years. In AFL terms most players are ready by that age having done 3-5 pre-seasons in the AFL system.

The Bulldogs had 9 in 2016, but this included Bontempelli, Stringer, Boyd and Macrae who are top end talents and performing to a high level early.

Hawthorn had one in 2015 and that was Brad Hill who was into his 3rd full season in a row, but they were at the end of a long run at the top with a very experienced team.

Whatever you do, to be contending you need a core of players that are physically ready. If you keep turning over players at a rapid rate you end up like GC/GWS hoping that a whole batch of kids come good at once.

lol Good luck with that.

Im curious with the young kids in Richmonds 2019-20 sides.

Cats 2022 squad was very old.

 

[juss]

I think getting the right coaching team in is 1000x more important than getting the right list together.

The list is important, but the way it's engaged with the gameplan and team and coached to play is far more important.

 

[Dr Tigris]

I think getting the right coaching team in is 1000x more important than getting the right list together.

The list is important, but the way it's engaged with the gameplan and team and coached to play is far more important.

You have to have the A grade core to win it all. But after that it is about having good AFL talent and using them well. Every contending team should have at least 25 AFL quality players, so then it is all about the coaching and team cohesion + tactics. But premierships are won by the best 'team' pretty much every year, not necessarily the most talented squad.

 

[Ambrosia]

You have to have the A grade core to win it all. But after that it is about having good AFL talent and using them well. Every contending team should have at least 25 AFL quality players, so then it is all about the coaching and team cohesion + tactics. But premierships are won by the best 'team' pretty much every year, not necessarily the most talented squad.

It’s all a bit blurred though. Things like coachability, ability to commit to a team first game plan, ability to understand your role are all part of being a talented footballer as well.

 

[Dr Tigris]

It’s all a bit blurred though. Things like coachability, ability to commit to a team first game plan, ability to understand your role are all part of being a talented footballer as well.

Completely agree.

You get in kids who mature - some more than others. Quite often young players are dills, who then mature into high quality adults. Quite often the dills stay as dills. That is a huge difference to the US system. They leave colleges at 22ish, and so you have a decent lead on how they will mature.And they still get it wrong.

Plus sometimes talent is just too much for the drafting team. Every team has talented players who flopped, and talented players who were flaky and worked out.

Lot of art to the science of drafting.

And of course the club culture and player leadership is important. For the tigers the change around 2016 from a arrogant to learning supporting culture was so important in winning 3 titles. If he club leaders bring he kids along and create a strong ethos then the team will be so much better. trying to draft those players is important.