How long should a rebuild take?

[The King!]

Sorry just point me to the bit where I complained about it. I just said it is a flawed view to compare a rebuild to the Swans. They were able to start their rebuild with young talent rated in the top 3 while still making top four. Therefore their ability to regenerate quickly is different to other clubs due to the academies. Maybe a touch hard to comprehend as a Freo supporter given you've never actually seen a successful build at all.

2014 - Made a Grand Final and got Heeney who was rated number 1
2015 - They finished fourth on the ladder and got Mills who was rated in the top 3

We can't all just raid the Suns to get premiership windows open

 

[Meteoric Rise]

More than luck it's player coaching and development.

Good coaching will forgive poor talent ID but good talent ID won't forgive bad coaching.

That's where the advantage of a team like Geelong where we retain a lot of older players. Those older players coach younger players and take the load off the actual coaching staff.

They also have a lot fewer players dependent on coaching from the actual coaching group and so the development coaches might spend their time on 20 names instead of 30. Having 30% more time to spend on individual players is a huge advantage.

Geelong also does it in cohorts on a rolling basis. The theory is that you can be competitive with one on field weakness. Example 2018 Geelong lost basically it's entire multiple AA backline and replaced them with whoever they had on hand. Geelong's strong midfield at the time slowed up the play to prevent turnovers burning an extremely inexperienced defence. Cats took the worst backline in the comp on paper and made it concede the fewest scores against.

Did that for years while the backline developed, while at the same time started recruiting basically entirely forward pressure players. Not all worked out but those forwards coming in were the basis of the 2020 tilt, then we got Jez at point where we were between rebuilds and snagged one.

Importantly within days of winning the premiership the Cats started adding mids. Now we're turning over the midfield and it's not always pretty but we have had multiple games where 62% of our total CBAs were players under 22. We've had to have the forwards and defenders play with very few rotations to the bench to allow our midfield to have 60-70% TOG% to keep them fresh. We've robbed some of the best defenders and forwards we have from the arcs to support the mids and cover the emergent weakness. But we've done all that.

Long winded, but overall I think that to rebuild into being a good side, you need to start by being a good side

That bit about your defence after 2018 just didn't ring true to me.

Your 2019 Preliminary Final defence was:

32yo Harry Taylor 250 odd games
29yo Zach Touhy 190 odd games
26yo Tom Stewart 60 odd games
25yo Jed Bews 70 odd games
23yo Jake Kolodjashnij 90 odd games
22yo Mark O'Connor 30 odd games
20yo Jack Henry 40 odd games

Also in the team were these players who would and could have played in defence during the season:

29yo Lachie Henderson 180 odd games
28yo Mark Blicavs 150 odd games

Your defence in the preliminary final had an average age of around 26 years and and average games played around 105. And you often had either Henderson and Blicavs playing there throughout the season. That does not qualify as extremely inexperienced in AFL terms. That games played average is above the median games played for an AFL team, comfortably. And it clearly wasn't the worst backline in the AFL, every one of those players played in a Premiership at some point.

Your 2019 PF backline was barely less experienced or younger than the 2017 Richmond Premiership backline, if at all.

Strange addition to your post, which otherwise mainly makes sense.

 

[Freomaniac]

Sorry just point me to the bit where I complained about it. I just said it is a flawed view to compare a rebuild to the Swans. They were able to start their rebuild with young talent rated in the top 3 while still making top four. Therefore their ability to regenerate quickly is different to other clubs due to the academies. Maybe a touch hard to comprehend as a Freo supporter given you've never actually seen a successful build at all.

2014 - Made a Grand Final and got Heeney who was rated number 1
2015 - They finished fourth on the ladder and got Mills who was rated in the top 3

I have been a dockers fan since late 2001 or early 2002.

I have seen a successful rebuild. It was 2007-9. Dont get me wrong... there were some dire moments there. I went to that infamous freo vs crows game at footy park in round 15 of 2009. That was a cold wet saturday night. Freo kicked 1 behind at half time and 1.7.13 at the end of the game.

Triva sake... Ryan Murphy was our sole goal kicker and he was dropped. lol

Freo still lost next week vs Brisbane on a west night at Subiaco 7.5.47 to 9.8.62.

Half of those blokes that played in that infamous game vs the crows in 2009 played in the 2013 grand final.

 

[Freomaniac]

That bit about your defence after 2018 just didn't ring true to me.

Your 2019 Preliminary Final defence was:

32yo Harry Taylor 250 odd games
29yo Zach Touhy 190 odd games
26yo Tom Stewart 60 odd games
25yo Jed Bews 70 odd games
23yo Jake Kolodjashnij 90 odd games
22yo Mark O'Connor 30 odd games
20yo Jack Henry 40 odd games

Also in the team were these players who would and could have played in defence during the season:

29yo Lachie Henderson 180 odd games
28yo Mark Blicavs 150 odd games

Your defence in the preliminary final had an average age of around 26 years and and average games played around 105. And you often had either Henderson and Blicavs playing there throughout the season. That does not qualify as extremely inexperienced in AFL terms. That games played average is above the median games played for an AFL team, comfortably. And it clearly wasn't the worst backline in the AFL, every one of those players played in a Premiership at some point.

Your 2019 PF backline was barely less experienced or younger than the 2017 Richmond Premiership backline, if at all.

Strange addition to your post, which otherwise mainly makes sense.

I assumed all those defenders you listed played in the 2020 grand final vs the tigers?

Harry Taylor was 34 years old and 134 days when he played in that 2020 grand final. He was 21 years old and 292 days when he had his debut game.

He was a classic case of starting late and finishing late. No shame in his 13 year career.

 

[Linda Lovelace]

A rebuild should take as long as club marketing teams need to convince members that they in one - and not just sh*t - so that they still buy tickets to games.

I've heard Essendon fans refer to their current team as the 'new Baby Bombers' despite fielding the 5th oldest team this year and basically being the same age as the 3rd oldest. And older than Sydney.

To your rube supporters, you're either Premiers or rebuilding.

 

[Freomaniac]

The Richmond build started with drafting Reiwoldt and Shane Edwards in 06, added Cotch, Rance, Dusty while bottoming out, Vlas, Astbury, Rioli etc. over following years, all the while adding strong rookies with Grimes, Lambert, Baker, Castagna etc., and trading in guys like Houli, Grigg, Caddy, Prestia to fill the gaps.
It took 11 years to fully build before the first premiership while not making too many mistakes, on top of this develop the players well and have the right coach to lead them...

Well I am curious on how Richmonds current Rebuild will go.

They are gonna have a good 4 or 5 seasons in a row of no finals. But I dont see that as a bad thing. Its about Nailing your picks in your rebuild years that matters.

Richmond as you said drafted a lot of kids in 2006 to 2009. I would say 2008 was the weak year richmond drafted out of those 4 years. Tyrone Vickery was on your teams list from 2009-16 but Richmond didnt get any solid servants in that 2008 draft or 2009 rookie draft.

The point was, Richmond got a lot of kids before the 2010 draft when Gold coast came into the comp in 2011. The 2 notable blokes Richmond got in that 2010 draft was Reece Conca at pick 6, Jake Batchelor at pick 30 and Bachar Houli in the Pre season draft.

Essendon wanted a 2nd round pick for Houli, Richmond offered pick 46. Houli goes to the Pre season draft and plays 200 games for richmond and got 3 premiership medals. Crazy that Houli was Richmonds best player recuited in he 2010 draft.


But you look at Richmonds current situation, They have lots of picks. I know Liam Baker is in a dilemma on choosing to where he will spend his next 5 years. Choosing to stay at richmond or head back to WA to play for Freo or eagles.

Richmond will use 5 or 6 or 7 picks in this 2024 draft. Those 18-21 year olds they will get in the National and Rookie draft will be 21-26 year olds 5 years later.

 

[TigerTime88]

We can't all just raid the Suns to get premiership windows open

Tassie next time!

 

[TigerTime88]

Well I am curious on how Richmonds current Rebuild will go.

They are gonna have a good 4 or 5 seasons in a row of no finals. But I dont see that as a bad thing. Its about Nailing your picks in your rebuild years that matters.

Richmond as you said drafted a lot of kids in 2006 to 2009. I would say 2008 was the weak year richmond drafted out of those 4 years. Tyrone Vickery was on your teams list from 2009-16 but Richmond didnt get any solid servants in that 2008 draft or 2009 rookie draft.

The point was, Richmond got a lot of kids before the 2010 draft when Gold coast came into the comp in 2011. The 2 notable blokes Richmond got in that 2010 draft was Reece Conca at pick 6, Jake Batchelor at pick 30 and Bachar Houli in the Pre season draft.

Essendon wanted a 2nd round pick for Houli, Richmond offered pick 46. Houli goes to the Pre season draft and plays 200 games for richmond and got 3 premiership medals. Crazy that Houli was Richmonds best player recuited in he 2010 draft.


But you look at Richmonds current situation, They have lots of picks. I know Liam Baker is in a dilemma on choosing to where he will spend his next 5 years. Choosing to stay at richmond or head back to WA to play for Freo or eagles.

Richmond will use 5 or 6 or 7 picks in this 2024 draft. Those 18-21 year olds they will get in the National and Rookie draft will be 21-26 year olds 5 years later.

I would think nailing or getting more winners than losers in 3-4 drafts sets up a core you can then recruit around. Then it's how long they take to develop. I'm all for trading Baker, Rioli and even Bolton albeit less keen on Bolton due to age and ability. If you're going to suck then really suck in my opinion. Teams caught halfway trying to compete like the Crows and Saints never seem to get anywhere. Essendon a long term example of this.

 

[Freomaniac]

I would think nailing or getting more winners than losers in 3-4 drafts sets up a core you can then recruit around. Then it's how long they take to develop. I'm all for trading Baker, Rioli and even Bolton albeit less keen on Bolton due to age and ability. If you're going to suck then really suck in my opinion. Teams caught halfway trying to compete like the Crows and Saints never seem to get anywhere. Essendon a long term example of this.

Well I am curious on How Shai Bolton is feeling now? He is contracted until 2028. Again... Like Liam baker, how does his career pans out 4 or 5 or 6 years down the track?


Dockers Spent 2016-21 rebuilding. Not one final was played. Freo were bottom 6 in 2016-18. But Saying that, Fyfe, Mundy, Walters and Taberner all were players that Stuck through that rebuild of 2016-21. I will always savour that 2022 elim final because Mundy and Walters played in that 2022 elim final, they were also in that same squad on freos previous finals win which was the 2015 qualifying final vs the swans.


But back to Shai Bolton and Liam Baker as an example. Its 2024 now. So lets look at the 2024 draft. And Lets just say Liam baker signs on until 2028.

As a richmond fan, can you tolerate finishing in the bottom 6 in 2024, 2025, 2026 and even 2027 If that means in 2028, Richmond finishes in 5th to 8th and makes and possibly wins a final?

 

[TigerTime88]

Well I am curious on How Shai Bolton is feeling now? He is contracted until 2028. Again... Like Liam baker, how does his career pans out 4 or 5 or 6 years down the track?


Dockers Spent 2016-21 rebuilding. Not one final was played. Freo were bottom 6 in 2016-18. But Saying that, Fyfe, Mundy, Walters and Taberner all were players that Stuck through that rebuild of 2016-21. I will always savour that 2022 elim final because Mundy and Walters played in that 2022 elim final, they were also in that same squad on freos previous finals win which was the 2015 qualifying final vs the swans.


But back to Shai Bolton and Liam Baker as an example. Its 2024 now. So lets look at the 2024 draft. And Lets just say Liam baker signs on until 2028.

As a richmond fan, can you tolerate finishing in the bottom 6 in 2024, 2025, 2026 and even 2027 If that means in 2028, Richmond finishes in 5th to 8th and makes and possibly wins a final?

Bolton manager has come out and said he wants to stay and rumours are rubbish but until the season is over I'm not convinced.

Could still be a part of another Richmond push to a flag but you would suspect it won't be until he is in his 30s. Does seem like the type who could play well into his 30s.

 

[go_the_dockers]

How long a rebuild takes depends on many factors. List management and the development of the players being the main factors.

If the club gets everything right and a bit of luck then the club should be in the bottom 4 for 2 or 3 years at most. If the club takes more than 5 years then some really poor decisions must have been made at some point.

I don't see the Eagles being out of the bottom 4 in the next 5 years, and they have already had 2 or 3 poor years.

I think if everything goes right, a rebuild can be 4 years but gee a lot needs to go right including late picks becoming stars.

Hawks were 15th in 2020
14th
13th
16th
13th 2023 and rising.

So 4 years in the bottom 6 is probably the best you can do during a rebuild.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don't see the Eagles being out of the bottom 4 in the next 5 years, and they have already had 2 or 3 poor years.

I think if everything goes right, a rebuild can be 4 years but gee a lot needs to go right including late picks becoming stars.

Hawks were 15th in 2020
14th
13th
16th
13th 2023 and rising.

So 4 years in the bottom 6 is probably the best you can do during a rebuild.

There is a big difference between a club finding itself without much valuable player currency like the Hawks post say 2020, and a cub that has valuable players with currency like say Hawks in 2001 who shifted Croad and McPharlin to good effect when they saw a strong draft and brought in Hodge, and Mitchell with the resultant picks plus Campball Brown with another pick.

2002 they picked up Sewell and Osborne with rookie picks but missed with their ND picks after trading Chick out for pick 8, but they trded Peter Everitt in to give them a viable ruckman.

2003 they did poorly again both draft. But they traded Croad back in for pick 10.

2004 they aced the draft with Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Murphy, Young and Taylor, after trading out Thompson.

2005 they traded out Hay and Lonie for good picks but drafted Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Gilham amongst some bad misses.

2006 Released Everitt for a pick in the 30's but only got Suckling of their flag players in the draft.

2007 Draft Cyril and Dew.

2008 FLAG.

2011-16 top 4 finishes including 3 flags + another GF + narrow PF loss.


So a club like Richmond if they started trading out valuable players like Hawks did back then, and had a decent run at the draft, without needing to ace every high pick, would be hoping for something along those lines. And there is of course free agency now, and a lot more trades happening, which can speed everything up.

The trouble with Hawks from 2019 onwards is they quickly found themselves without valuable players to trade to get them a high volume of prime draft picks. North were in a similar situation. Blues too in 2015. Richmond are currently in a very different situation to this.

 

[go_the_dockers]

There is a big difference between a club finding itself without much valuable player currency like the Hawks post say 2020, and a cub that has valuable players with currency like say Hawks in 2001 who shifted Croad and McPharlin to good effect when they saw a strong draft and brought in Hodge, and Mitchell with the resultant picks plus Campball Brown with another pick.

2002 they picked up Sewell and Osborne with rookie picks but missed with their ND picks after trading Chick out for pick 8, but they trded Peter Everitt in to give them a viable ruckman.

2003 they did poorly again both draft. But they traded Croad back in for pick 10.

2004 they aced the draft with Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Murphy, Young and Taylor, after trading out Thompson.

2005 they traded out Hay and Lonie for good picks but drafted Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Gilham amongst some bad misses.

2006 Released Everitt for a pick in the 30's but only got Suckling of their flag players in the draft.

2007 Draft Cyril and Dew.

2008 FLAG.

2011-16 top 4 finishes including 3 flags + another GF + narrow PF loss.


So a club like Richmond if they started trading out valuable players like Hawks did back then, and had a decent run at the draft, without needing to ace every high pick, would be hoping for something along those lines. And there is of course free agency now, and a lot more trades happening, which can speed everything up.

The trouble with Hawks from 2019 onwards is they quickly found themselves without valuable players to trade to get them a high volume of prime draft picks. North were in a similar situation. Blues too in 2015. Richmond are currently in a very different situation to this.

No priority picks either.

So no double top 5 picks in a rebuild.

Hawks have done very well this rebuild.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No priority picks either.

So no double top 5 picks in a rebuild.

Hawks have done very well this rebuild.

Roughead was a priority pick. Ellis was a priority pick. Or were those picks priority picks handed to other clubs and traded to hawks like the Hodge pick?

So they rorted that which obviously helped. But still they traded out 4-5 players with currency

 

[go_the_dockers]

Roughead was a priority pick. Ellis was a priority pick. Or were those picks priority picks handed to other clubs and traded to hawks like the Hodge pick?

So they rorted that which obviously helped. But still they traded out 4-5 players with currency

I was talking about this rebuild, not the previous one.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I was talking about this rebuild, not the previous one.

Long, long way to go before we can properly judge the Hawks current rebuild. Certainly showing some promise under Mitchell though.

 

[Freomaniac]

Looking at the hawks... No finals from 2019-2023. 5 or 6 years of no finals is reasonable.

 

[janty]

Bout tree fiddy.

 

[Mr.X]

Two seasons

Rebuilds taking longer than 3 years often fail

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

Two seasons

Rebuilds taking longer than 3 years often fail

You mean Montagna’s 10 years is wrong

 

[TP86]

Rebuilds are defined by the prime years of top-end talent and stars that can decide games. Players perceived to be list cloggers can become role players overnight when the high draft picks take the leap to game-changing star.

In Round 18, 2006, Hawthorn lost to Fremantle to cap a 50 game stretch where they had won just 13 and lost 37. 53 games later they were premiers (38-15). 16 of the 22 that played in Round 18, 2006 would go on to be Premiership players. I imagine most assessing Hawthorn's list at the time would've considered them a lot further away than 6 players.

 

[Wojcinski]

usually takes us a season to get competative again. ie. 07-14 finals every year, 3 flags. 2015 rebuild year, 16-22 finals every year, 1 flag 2023 rebuild year, 2024-29 5-peat

 

[Freomaniac]

Again.... I say 5 years is reasonable.

That 1st year is important. Those 18-20 year olds in that 1st year of the rebuild are 23-25 year olds 5 years later. You then bring in on average 1 or 2 or even 3 players from other clubs each season to fill the list.

They will come in as free agents or you trade a pick for them or get them once they are delisted

 

[Freomaniac]

Which is why rebuilds now take longer, poor sides are more likely to lose good talent, extending their rebuild times.

good point.

But saying that, If you cant make solid improvement after 5 full seasons, then there is some thing wrong at the club.

The 1st season of the rebuild is the most important. Its about drafting some good 18 to 20 year olds. 5 years later thats a bunch of 23 to 25 year olds with development, endurance and a fair amount of games under the belt.

Hell, I expect some results after 4 seasons with those 18 to 20 year olds being 22 to 24 year olds, even if they are fringe or rotation players that are playing every 2nd AFL game. that is still 40 AFL games played at a bare minimum