No Oppo Supporters Double-Death-Riding Carlton 2019 Edition - Currently Pick 1 and 19

[Crow till I die]

I fully expect Carlton to be their own tier of garbage, and give Fremantle 1-21 season a really good shake. Gold Coast I could easily envision getting 4-5 wins this year.

After all, 2-20 is beyond the point it happens by accident, and Carlton haven't done anything to rectify that.

I'll be honest, i struggle to see GC winning a single game as they lost some seriously good players and have replaced them with offcasts, raw kids and state leaguers. I can see the better teams putting them to the sword in a big way. Carlton at least kept their young core together and have added some more forward firepower in mcgovern and fasolo. They have also added walsh, setterfield and stocker to their midfield mix without losing anyone. They are still well away from coming good but i see tgem being a class up on the suns who to be honest i could see norwood or north giving a stern test too

 

[1970crow]

Scully probably won't play much next year, it's why they got him so cheap.

I knew he wasn’t 100%, but didn’t realise it was that bad.

 

[Golumless]

I'll be honest, i struggle to see GC winning a single game as they lost some seriously good players and have replaced them with offcasts, raw kids and state leaguers. I can see the better teams putting them to the sword in a big way. Carlton at least kept their young core together and have added some more forward firepower in mcgovern and fasolo. They have also added walsh, setterfield and stocker to their midfield mix without losing anyone. They are still well away from coming good but i see tgem being a class up on the suns who to be honest i could see norwood or north giving a stern test too

I rate Dew as a coach (it's very much a vibe thing at this point of time), so I reckon you'll be pleasantly surprised by GC (unless of course, you dislike GC, though how would baffle me due to how harmless they've been since their inception). Structures, not players, win games after all and a poor on paper team can do some serious damage if they get it right structurally. The 2nd year is a good litmus test on a coach seeing you're out of the period that a side will "spike" due to something new, and also the year that any widespread structural changes should really begin to show (+ there is an extra year of tinkering). So all in all, they should improve this year, despite losing Lynch, if Dew has a long term future as a coach. Some of the better teams will put them to the sword, of course, but both clubs in question will cop a few hideous beatings as neither are even close to being in a position they could reliably compete with the top end of the competition.

The other issue is the assumption that time = development, which is a very flawed idea. Time = development is very situational, something you can bank on a club that's worked shit out, like Adelaide, but cannot be assumed for a club where they're poorly ran, like Cartlon. There is nothing there to be optimistic about Cartlon outside of the idea of "surely they can't be that bad again, right?" which of course, naturally they can be that bad again. A couple of nice prospects, but a very weak coach, backed by a weak coaching staff (Teague being an exception, though how much is hard to say), already lost a top line player in Doherty (though, it's early enough that a side can reliably plan around not having a player), and they've done the equivalent of putting their heads in the sand after one of the worst seasons period. They are in for a world of hurt this year.

 

[LC40]

I'm a lot more bullish about the Gold Coast list than most. Not saying they'll exit the bottom four but they have some real talent in that squad.
Their spine looks promising; Lukosius, Wright/King, Burgess and Thompson are tall mobile players.
Sure young blokes take time but I'm guessing they'll be thrown in the deep end sooner than later and may surprise in some games.
Ainsworth, Martin and Rankine looks quite potent and will add a lot of bite around the forward line. If Brodie, Bowes and Weller are given responsibility and play to their potential they have the ability to cause problems at stoppages.
Dew IMO has to make this a run and gun team and hold his nerve.
Every team thinks they'll improve so where will the GC wins come from?
Hard work, and quick ball movement. Young players can add a lot of enthusiasm. They'll wear down by seasons end but 3-4 wins is not an unrealistic goal if they play with effort.

 

[SaltPeter]

I’d be gobsmacked if they fell close to that far. Not sure who they lost outside of Burton, but Scully and Wingard will be handy additions.

The last I read about Scully (before Xmas) was that they didn't really know when he will be over his ankle injury and ready to come back

 

[FR0GGY]

What do Carlton have that everyone wants?

Their rd 1 pick.....oh wait a minute!

 

[Donkey Magoo]

The last I read about Scully (before Xmas) was that they didn't really know when he will be over his ankle injury and ready to come back

On the Hawk's board, they say that he's training without strapping but not with the main group yet.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Nah, too many terrible teams below and Mitchell isn't a crippling loss.

Will hurt Hawthorn though, and probably solidifies them as a 9-13 team.

You don't thinks so ?? .....who's Hawthorn's inside mid going to be ?? ......not O'Meara, or Wingard! ......Shiel? but who else

 

[Golumless]

You don't thinks so ?? .....who's Hawthorn's inside mid going to be ?? ......not O'Meara, or Wingard! ......Shiel? but who else

Dunno, though, I'd question how important a pure inside midfielder is to a setup as a whole seeing there has been plenty of times a side has had one dominate and it not translate to anything. After all, the best pure inside midfielder in the league plays for a side that went 2-20. All they'd need to do is find one who'd break even on the regular and you've counteracted a large chunk of the damage, and a lot of journeyman level inside players can do that. Or platoon two of them, if you can't break even on one, and try to break even on numbers though that naturally harms elsewhere.

It does a fair bit of damage to the chance of Hawks making finals, as Hawks have the feel of a over-performed mid table team before this injury. It won't cripple them and make them drop to the bottom 5 however seeing it's able to be worked around.

 

[Carmo]

Crows with a top 2/3 pick I am hoping grab Rankine end of 2019. Someone 'in the know' on the drafts board recently said he is not settling in well at Suns. Surely its only a matter of time before he returns home.

Crows supporter, neutral or Suns supporter?

 

[kulak]

I knew he wasn’t 100%, but didn’t realise it was that bad.

It’s also that his one elite afl talent is two way running. Half fit Tom Scully isn’t an elite player.

Play a handful of games late this year, full pre season, watch out 2020. They will give him time like they did O’Meara.

They took a gamble on their medicos and his professionalism. If he was going as a free agent and we had committed that salary offer then I would be concerned, although we aren’t known for elite medicos.

 

[kulak]

Dunno, though, I'd question how important a pure inside midfielder is to a setup as a whole seeing there has been plenty of times a side has had one dominate and it not translate to anything. After all, the best pure inside midfielder in the league plays for a side that went 2-20. All they'd need to do is find one who'd break even on the regular and you've counteracted a large chunk of the damage, and a lot of journeyman level inside players can do that. Or platoon two of them, if you can't break even on one, and try to break even on numbers though that naturally harms elsewhere.

It does a fair bit of damage to the chance of Hawks making finals, as Hawks have the feel of a over-performed mid table team before this injury. It won't cripple them and make them drop to the bottom 5 however seeing it's able to be worked around.

The loss of Mitchell will hurt but not as much as some think.

In my view high possession low hurt factor players are not as influential as their possession count makes it appear.

O’Meara steps up, Sicily plays a full year, Wingard returns to his AA quality half forward level, Shiels gets a bit more of the ball.

Clarko famously places little store in contested possessions. They are really going to struggle there.

Can they be the first team to routinely lose clearances by 20 and win anyway?

They will struggle against teams who can smash them in the clearances AND with the skill and system to take advantage. I had them as an outside chance of the flag but it’s hard to see that happening now.

 

[Sanders]

Pick 1 or 2...oops we now have that

Quite amazing that a potential wooden spoon team in rebuild mode doesn’t own either of their first or second round picks

Or that the same team, a contender, owns both of them.

How does that happen? Seriously

 

[Crow till I die]

Quite amazing that a potential wooden spoon team in rebuild mode doesn’t own either of their first or second round picks

Or that the same team, a contender, owns both of them.

How does that happen? Seriously

I posted on the stocker thread in the draft and trade section that SOS would have been better off trading 2018 pick 1 to us for 8 & 13. He could have taken caldwell who could be as good as walsh anyway and then got stocker at 13. That would mean their 2019 pick 1 or 2 coukd be used to try and trade for josh kelly who would be infinitly better for them than our 2019 1st that might be between 15 and 20 after academy / father son bids etc

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Eiffel 65]

I think that's a reasonable assessment. Carlton most likely down the bottom but do pass your mind as a team that could potentially develop and improve in 2019.

Not so sure about Freo being tucked over on the other side of the world though

 

[Pea Nut]

I think that's a reasonable assessment. Carlton most likely down the bottom but do pass your mind as a team that could potentially develop and improve in 2019.

Not so sure about Freo being tucked over on the other side of the world though

Carlton will play 22 games in 2019. Hard not to improve after only winning 2 games in 2018. Doesn't mean they won't be bottom 3.

 

[GROTTO]

I posted on the stocker thread in the draft and trade section that SOS would have been better off trading 2018 pick 1 to us for 8 & 13. He could have taken caldwell who could be as good as walsh anyway and then got stocker at 13. That would mean their 2019 pick 1 or 2 coukd be used to try and trade for josh kelly who would be infinitly better for them than our 2019 1st that might be between 15 and 20 after academy / father son bids etc

Hmmm amazing how for SOS in hindsight that fool should have traded Pick 1 of theirs for our picks 8 and 13 and as you mention keep their 1st and 2nd.

The stupidity is breathtaking by SOS. Son of Stupid.

 

[Cap]

I really like Del Santo on the radio.

Shame we won't get him here.

 

[Pea Nut]

I really like Del Santo on the radio.

Shame we won't get him here.

He was one of the only ones worth listening to during the trade period as well. Provides good insight and is balanced. Unlike Manure, Kornes and co.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

He was one of the only ones worth listening to during the trade period as well. Provides good insight and is balanced. Unlike Manure, Kornes and co.

When he started on radio /tv , he spoke too fast at a million miles an hour ...... you can hear from this snippet, he’s slowed down a lot (trained) and lowered his voice ...... improving all the time and as you’ve said provides good insight

 

[FR0GGY]

He was one of the only ones worth listening to during the trade period as well. Provides good insight and is balanced. Unlike Manure, Kornes and co.

Seemed to give it to McClure at any opportunity too.

 

[Shaz2012]

I posted on the stocker thread in the draft and trade section that SOS would have been better off trading 2018 pick 1 to us for 8 & 13. He could have taken caldwell who could be as good as walsh anyway and then got stocker at 13. That would mean their 2019 pick 1 or 2 coukd be used to try and trade for josh kelly who would be infinitly better for them than our 2019 1st that might be between 15 and 20 after academy / father son bids etc

I am not sure they didnt do better than that. For starters, I would be absolutely gob smacked if Kelly chose to go to Carlton. Especially after his high quality team mates have gone to much better clubs like Essendon and Hawthorn. So if they are trading for lessor players then our pick is probably closer to the mark in value. Then you look at the fact that they got Stocker at pick 19, rather than what would have been pick 16. Also, if it came down to them taking pick 1 to the draft this year versus next year, then absolutely doing it this year was the right call.

I like the trade from their point of view. They are almost certainly not going to win it if you judge it in isolation. But factoring in how long they have been down the bottom and what the positives of splitting a future top 3 pick gives them by spending part of it a year early. I just like the deal they did personally. It might make no difference to them, but it potentially galvanizes the whole club - fans, players and management - to basically look forward and forget about the benefits of finishing last. Throw everything they have at every game they play. I think a year of that mentality will help their players develop long term as well.

 

[fabs33]

He was one of the only ones worth listening to during the trade period as well. Provides good insight and is balanced. Unlike Manure, Kornes and co.

Can't see him surviving in the media for very long then.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

The loss of Mitchell will hurt but not as much as some think.

In my view high possession low hurt factor players are not as influential as their possession count makes it appear.

O’Meara steps up, Sicily plays a full year, Wingard returns to his AA quality half forward level, Shiels gets a bit more of the ball.

Clarko famously places little store in contested possessions. They are really going to struggle there.

Can they be the first team to routinely lose clearances by 20 and win anyway?

They will struggle against teams who can smash them in the clearances AND with the skill and system to take advantage. I had them as an outside chance of the flag but it’s hard to see that happening now.

The players that you mention are all good in their roles however none of those players can take the inside mid / clearance role that Mitchell provides and that is so vital in winning contested possession in order to ignite your offensive ball movement

IMO the loss of Mitchell is huge because the one gap on Hawthorn's list is natural inside mids that will then bring the likes of Smith, Shiels and Wingard into the game

I had Hawthorn missing the 8 even with a fit Mitchell, the loss of Mitchell now bookmarks Hawthorn missing the 8

A recent article had Hawthorn's midfield ranked at #15 in the league, now losing Mitchell the Hawks arguably have the worse midfield in the comp, a tough season ahead for the Hawks