Preview Elimination Final - Sydney Swans vs GWS, 3:20pm, Saturday August 29 @ UTAS, Launceston

[Heeney2Franklin]

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Everytime someone posts this image i die a little inside unless we win it all 2021 will be remembered as what if.

 

[The King!]

Everytime someone posts this image i die a little inside unless we win it all 2021 will be remembered as what if.

Your glass is half empty then I see

 

[Banyo Bloods]

Can someone please defend Himmelberg, thats all I ask.

Ok - He is a good looking lad, takes a nice grab and is reliable shot for goal when kicking around the corner. Probably kind to animals.

 

[caesar88]

Great call. I would love to see our stats when he attends centre bounces, feel like our clearances go up.

Alright Bonz, best I can do is provide you the percentage of CBAs a player has that ends with a centre clearance for the individual.

Campbell - 25% (1 centre clearance from 4 CBAs)
Papley - 16.7% (7 from 42)
McInerney - 15.4% (4 from 26)
Heeney - 14.3% (2 from 14)
Kennedy - 13.8% (50 from 362)
Parker - 13.04% (57 from 437)
Gulden - 12.5% (3 from 24)
Hewett - 10.91% (15 from 139)
Warner - 10.57% (13 from 123)
Mills - 9.54% (31 from 325)
Florent - 8.87% (11 from 124)
Rowbottom - 8.84% (16 from 181)
Blakey - 5.26% (1 from 19)

However much time and effort as I spent put into this, I would almost disregard it the numbers are that dubious, as there are a lot more variables at play that kinda don't reflect the players' worth. For example Blakey was actually rucking in a fair few of his CBAs, so of course he'd have less clearances than the guys he's tapping it to.

Mills is often the guy getting first hands to it and distributing to another player, who then gets the centre clearance, so his involvement in that clearance isn't counted.

Rowbottom's obviously had injury issues all year so he's really just been used to pressure at the contest, which explains his high tackle numbers but low clearance numbers.

And naturally the lower-CBA, impact players, like Papley, McInerney, Campbell and Heeney, will have higher percentages because they are often going in sporadically to have exactly that: a short burst. Put them in there for an entire game like JPK, Parker, Mills etc and I suspect they would be significantly less effective.

But still, interesting to read nonetheless.

 

[RW]

I'm not afraid of Mumford. His time us up. We know his game & will play him against himself... Slow. No tank. Sniper.

We run him off his feet, try to block his run &/or knock him off balance where possible. His main threat is getting some steam up running a straight line. We can offset him. He's really not that big a threat at all IMO. In fact, a potential liability to GWS if they are going to put all their eggs in his basket. Go for it I say! Good luck relying on him.

The mighty bloods by 37.

I may regret saying this on this board, but Reid might be handy this week, to give Hickey a chop out in the ruck and to provide a contest generally. He was good against them at the SCG after Hickey went down with the knee. We need someone to play the role LRT did in 2012 to have a chance in the finals, I think.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I may regret saying this on this board, but Reid might be handy this week, to give Hickey a chop out in the ruck and to provide a contest generally. He was good against them at the SCG after Hickey went down with the knee. We need someone to play the role LRT did in 2012 to have a chance in the finals, I think.

NO just NO! We've finally got rid of him why on earth are we bringing the bloke back. We have much better options. Also these young blokes will learn so much playing finals. Win or lose that is important too.

 

[the hypnotoad]

Hmm. Some statsnerd may well shoot me down in flames, but I think what is "open" about this year's final 8 is that even the top teams have had a stumble or two.

So there's a touch of vulnerability about every team. Can't think of a single team that hasn't had at least one surprising loss.

agreed ... the openness is more a reflection on the vulnerability of the five sides who have been fighting for top four for two months (with us sitting in the very dangerous sixth spot, waiting to pounce) ... and then the form of three of the four 'bottom' sides in the finals
brisbane, melbourne and port would be delighted to go into finals off last weekend, geelong would be devastated, and now get port in adelaide
i think the two winners of the sudden-death games this weekend will fancy themselves more so than most years, and although the dogs are out of form they'd give themselves a big show next week if they can get past essendon
and whichever sydney team survives will be a huge headache for their opponent the following week ... in terms of consistency across the season, we're in as good a shape as anyone, particularly with that impressive stat against the other finals teams
and one of the big factors i don't think has been touched on is the role of key forwards ... franklin's form at the weekend would surely have every other coach and defence dreading running into him ... there's some great key forwards still there but he's the only true superstar forward (hawkins has never been even near the franklin class!)

 

[RW]

NO just NO! We've finally got rid of him why on earth are we bringing the bloke back. We have much better options. Also these young blokes will learn so much playing finals. Win or lose that is important too.

I think he offers us more than McLean in a final as he can go back if needed.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think he offers us more than McLean in a final as he can go back if needed.

On form? No he doesn't and he'd dead set miss from 20m out right in front.

 

[RW]

On form? No he doesn't and he'd dead set miss from 20m out right in front.

Not as a key forward, no, but as a utility who can play forward and back and who can ruck...

 

[The King!]

I think he offers us more than McLean in a final as he can go back if needed.

a scapegoat sure

 

[RW]

a scapegoat sure

Made me laugh, thanks!

 

[swanssince2002]

If Reid is in this week and we get beaten in a tight one by GWS, no doubt all the fingers will be pointed at him. No, just no.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Not as a key forward, no, but as a utility who can play forward and back and who can ruck...

We have Fox for that. In fact he's the perfect utility we have. Bloke can plug a hole everywhere.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If Reid is in this week and we get beaten in a tight one by GWS, no doubt all the fingers will be pointed at him. No, just no.

And rightly so. Doesn't deserve a recall anyway. What has he done to deserve being picked!

 

[SGBeach]

100% Rowbottom looks half fit still. Off season will do him the world of good.

Rowbum played over 80% game time last weekend. He's been increasing his performance each week over the last 6 weeks. It looks like the Swans have given him a minnie pre-season while still playing in the firsts. Horse said he had a couple of injures,, knee and ribs
Round 16 & 17 - no game time
Rds 18, 19, 20, 21 - approx 60% game time
Rd 22 - 82% game time.
Interestingly, his total disposals have increased with each game since round 18
Ill back Rowbum to be very close to 100%

 

[The King!]

reid in isnt like plucking lewis taylor

28

Lewis Taylor

Age

29

Ht

174cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.6

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

9.6

2star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.2

3star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.4

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

1.2

4star

its not that unlikely

 

[LukeParkerno1]

reid in isnt like plucking lewis taylor

its not that unlikely

Heck I'd back Taylor kicking at goal lol

 

[Jewelsbon]

Hate it sorry but I do. You are robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak...you win the clearance then what happens? Our best small forward isn't down there.

But on the other hand we have some great grabs in the forward line, so if Papley can get that initial burst from the centre, he can then get it forward quickly where there are the likes of Heeney, Hayward and that other bloke that's kicked a goal or two.

Everytime someone posts this image i die a little inside unless we win it all 2021 will be remembered as what if.

Not to me, it will still be remembered for what it has been - a great leap forward.

 

[scaryness]

If Reid is in this week and we get beaten in a tight one by GWS, no doubt all the fingers will be pointed at him. No, just no.

Preemptively blaming him for a loss that hasn't happened yet is peak BF Reid discussion.

 

[Bonz]

Alright Bonz, best I can do is provide you the percentage of CBAs a player has that ends with a centre clearance for the individual.

Campbell - 25% (1 centre clearance from 4 CBAs)
Papley - 16.7% (7 from 42)
McInerney - 15.4% (4 from 26)
Heeney - 14.3% (2 from 14)
Kennedy - 13.8% (50 from 362)
Parker - 13.04% (57 from 437)
Gulden - 12.5% (3 from 24)
Hewett - 10.91% (15 from 139)
Warner - 10.57% (13 from 123)
Mills - 9.54% (31 from 325)
Florent - 8.87% (11 from 124)
Rowbottom - 8.84% (16 from 181)
Blakey - 5.26% (1 from 19)

However much time and effort as I spent put into this, I would almost disregard it the numbers are that dubious, as there are a lot more variables at play that kinda don't reflect the players' worth. For example Blakey was actually rucking in a fair few of his CBAs, so of course he'd have less clearances than the guys he's tapping it to.

Mills is often the guy getting first hands to it and distributing to another player, who then gets the centre clearance, so his involvement in that clearance isn't counted.

Rowbottom's obviously had injury issues all year so he's really just been used to pressure at the contest, which explains his high tackle numbers but low clearance numbers.

And naturally the lower-CBA, impact players, like Papley, McInerney, Campbell and Heeney, will have higher percentages because they are often going in sporadically to have exactly that: a short burst. Put them in there for an entire game like JPK, Parker, Mills etc and I suspect they would be significantly less effective.

But still, interesting to read nonetheless.

This is fantastic, thank you for the hard work!

 

[Tedeski]

I think he offers us more than McLean in a final as he can go back if needed.

Most importantly he offers that extra experience we need that the coaches value so much alongside our younger stars.
I get that & I can see him come straight back in.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The Mitch Marsh of the Swans BF board lmao ala the whipping boy. Swords will def be out though if worst case happens.

Mitch Marsh is a perfect comparison bloke has got so many games on name alone.

 

[Bloods86]

Rowbum played over 80% game time last weekend. He's been increasing his performance each week over the last 6 weeks. It looks like the Swans have given him a minnie pre-season while still playing in the firsts. Horse said he had a couple of injures,, knee and ribs
Round 16 & 17 - no game time
Rds 18, 19, 20, 21 - approx 60% game time
Rd 22 - 82% game time.
Interestingly, his total disposals have increased with each game since round 18
Ill back Rowbum to be very close to 100%

Worth noting he played at least 130% in Round 18, as he'd played a full (likely 80%+) reserves game the day before he backed up with 50% vs. Giants. I wonder if that disrupted / took a bit out of him. In any case, he looked pretty good on the weekend and hopefully he can back up a 80%+ TOG.

 

[bhogi]

I think it would be worse to call up Sinclair than Reid.
Let’s hope Chloe is giving birth right now, mum & bubs are healthy, and Tom’s good to go!


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