Preview Elimination Final - Sydney Swans vs GWS, 3:20pm, Saturday August 29 @ UTAS, Launceston

[Nuggetz]

If Hickey didn't play, we'd be done for. He's so important. I'm choosing to believe he will absolutely play for my own sanity.

Against any other team yes but mumford is a fat slow campaigner who could break down at any moment. We could bring in sinclair just to match his physicality and it wouldn't impact the ruck too much.

Probably the only team where Hickey could miss and it wouldn't impact us too much. Obvs Hickey playing is preferred but we're still in with a good shot to win if he doesn't play.

 

[Glenn_]

Tipping JPK to get up , Mills to be out, Hickey to play.

 

[Nuggetz]

fu** a windy tassie ground

This is what worries me the most with playing in tassie.

 

[S120]

Against any other team yes but mumford is a fat slow campaigner who could break down at any moment. We could bring in sinclair just to match his physicality and it wouldn't impact the ruck too much.

Probably the only team where Hickey could miss and it wouldn't impact us too much. Obvs Hickey playing is preferred but we're still in with a good shot to win if he doesn't play.

I disagree, GWS just plays better when Mumford plays. And he always gets himself up for a game against us. I'd back Hickey to beat him (he was the better player in the first game this year until he had to go off the ground) but Mumford has a positive impact upon GWS' chances of knocking us off imo.

 

[Nuggetz]

I reckon they'll try to needle mills foot issue but with Achilles he can't do much about it. Brad Johnson

Brad Johnson

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19.7

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No current season stats available

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10.2

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0.6

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was saying he had a similar Achilles problem and the only thing to fix it was rest for a few weeks. The only way he managed to play through it was by making sure it had adequate blood flow through stretching the Achilles but yea, unfortunately Mills will need to play through it.

 

[Punts]

We don’t want it to become a contested slog otherwise we will get done comfortably

 

[Kirkswan]

indeed! ... every game now is a 'danger' game and no one expected us to be here, but it's surely as much a case now of no team wants to play us, let alone who we might be worried about ...
as the swans have shown all season, our best is good enough to beat anyone ... we stunned the near premiership favourite lions in round one, we were the first to really open up the defending premiers and expose them in round three (the start of the end for richmond), we gobsmacked geelong, we gave melbourne their hardest fight of the season (to that point) and later on we overran the dogs and sent their season into a spin ... and we're a better team now than then
the squad has been hardened by playing on the road for two months ... there is no team, no venue we need be intimidated by
we're entitled to enjoy this week, there were no expectations on us at the start of the season so everything now is a huge bonus, and whatever unfolds in the next four weeks, the future is very exciting
consistently across the season we have played the most entertaining, the highest-quality football, at our best we will match any team
let them fear us

Exactly!

 

[BloodySwan]

We can’t win without mills, jpk and hickey

No marital relations in January please

Parker and Hewett can cover Kennedy and Mills out but Hickey will be a loss we can't replace.

 

[caesar88]

I've lost count of how many sides are supposedly nightmare match ups for us this year. Our recent record against teams going into our most recent meetings with them:

Adelaide - Lost 2 of the last 3
Brisbane - Lost 2 of the last 3
Carlton - Lost 2 of the last 3
Collingwood - Lost 2 of the last 3
Essendon - Lost 2 of the last 3
Fremantle - Lost the last 3 straight
Geelong - Lost the last 3 straight
Gold Coast - Lost 2 of the last 3
GWS - Lost 2 of the last 3
Hawthorn - Won 2 of the last 3
Melbourne - Won the last 3 straight
North Melbourne - Won the last 3 straight
Port Adelaide - Lost the last 3 straight
Richmond - Lost the last 3 straight
St Kilda - Won 2 of the last 3
West Coast - Won 2 of the last 3
Western Bulldogs - Lost 2 of the last 3

Based on that, if our "form" against teams stacked up, we'd probably have something of a 4-6 win season. We have 15 wins because we have reversed concerning records against sides who previously troubled us.

GWS will be tough. They have a midfield of mountain men of the Stringer/Fyfe/Mundy/Wines/Steele mould who have troubled us this year. But if we weren't worrying about their bulls, we'd be worrying about Port's bulls, or the Bulldogs' ball use, or Geelong's talls, or Melbourne's midfield, or Brisbane's pressure, or the Bombers speed. Every team in the eight has something that can trouble every other team in the eight, but those other teams in the eight each have something of their own. There is a reason GWS scrapped their way to a win over Carlton to secure their finals spot while we had a cruisy 14 goal win when we were 5 games clear in the eight.

We're the better team.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Sydney finished 3.5 games clear of GWS , seems that some are forgetting the gulf between us and them.
If Sydney turn up mentally and well prepared, they should be comfortably through to Week 2.

Agreed.

GWS have scraped into the finals with 11 wins and a percentage of less than 100. They are lucky to have made it to be honest and if we are fair dinkum we should be winning this well.

 

[CheapCharlie]

It will be difficult to win without Kennedy and Mills. Mills shouldn't be played if he suffering like that. We have a poor history of choosing injured players for finals games.
Fingers crossed both are available and Warner is also fit and ready

I'd also like to see us stick with Hayden Mclean

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0.8

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10.0

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. Bringing back sam Reid

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Sam Reid

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12.0

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6.0

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6.0

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4.0

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0.0

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9.4

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gives us the option back and the experience in finals, but his marking up forward and shots at goal have been poor since he returned from injury.
Playing buddy away from goal will give Mclean more space and offer a target, given GWS will play a lesser defender on him. Mclean is also taking some clutch marks.

 

[Punts]

Play buddy high and McLean deep

Drag Taylor up the ground along with Haynes

 

[Ralphyboy]

We've shown ourselves to be the better team across the 22 weeks of the competition this year but the key is the form of the two sides right now and their injury lists. We're both riding great form and GWS have battle hardened bodies coming good at the right time of the year.

This is gonna be as intense a game as we've played this year. GWS vs Sydney is always that way. An incredible test for a lot of our young guys playing their first finals. If Kennedy is fit to play, he has to imo. We need as much experience as we can get from our good players. Bud, Parker, Kennedy, Rampe, Lloyd, Cunningham, Hickey, Papley, Heeney, Hewett, and Mills are gonna have to do some heavy lifting this week to guide our young guys and keep them steady and mentally ready to go.

I think we've opted for Rampe as the third tall with Melican/McCartin as the keys at a beneficial time. Rampe can now take the Greene match-up with McCartin/Melican taking Himmelberg and Hogan.

Hayward must take the Haynes match-up again, Bud is gonna have his hands full with a red-hot Sam Taylor

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Sam Taylor

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25

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198cm

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95kg

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10.0

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4.6

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2.1

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130.5

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8.0

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2.5

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5.5

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2.8

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2.5

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60.8

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8.6

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3.0

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5.6

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1.2

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2.8

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110.8

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to play on him, Papley could be primed for a big game because GWS don't have an excellent small defender as far as I see it.

I do think our bottom 6 is slightly more reliable than their bottom 6 which is a marker of our preparedness I think. You need an even spread in finals, it can't just be left to your best 8 players to do the heavy lifting. From each of our previous games, I'd say the bottom 6's from each starting 22 for each were:

GWS: Bruhn, Briggs, Lloyd, Kennedy, Stein, Sproule

Sydney: O'Riordan, Campbell, Wicks, Melican, McLean, Rowbottom (tough to pick the last one, came down to Rowbottom, Hayward, Florent)

Close run, but I'd take our bottom 6 over theirs by a slight martin. If we can get Mills and/or Kennedy into the side and they can contribute, I think we'll have enough to win it.

Great post. This will be a highly contested war of attrition. Mumford will be nasty. The swans will be preparing for a tough encounter. GWS bottom six is much worse than the swans in my view. Stein, Sproule and Briggs would not get a game for the swans.


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[Punts]

Would rather McLean deep one on one than Reid

 

[S120]

McLean I think has sewn up his spot for the first final. Had he played a shocker against Gold Coast he might be in trouble, but I think that he got picked for the final tune-up before finals ahead of Reid was indication enough that Horse was backing him. Plus his 2nd half was very good (albeit in an already won game), I think he's done enough.

 

[alex4445]

Depending on how happy the coaches are with COR and what happens with Mills and Kennedy I think it could be a good move to play Fox as a defensive forward replacing Campbell. He could help lock down the GWS rebound and put some work into their younger defenders to give Buddy and Heeney some clean air.

 

[Jewelsbon]

If Hickey didn't play, we'd be done for. He's so important. I'm choosing to believe he will absolutely play for my own sanity.

I truly believe they only beat us the first time this year because Hickey went off, we had them covered easily before then.

 

[Big Blood]

Even without Mills and JPK, we have the talent, the grit and the gamestyle to avenge the previous finals losses against the Giants. Despite or because of the endless roadtrip we have lifted when it matters. Pretty confident.

 

[the hypnotoad]

Even without Mills and JPK, we have the talent, the grit and the gamestyle to avenge the previous finals losses against the Giants. Despite or because of the endless roadtrip we have lifted when it matters. Pretty confident.

unless something yesterday has made it significantly worse, i think at the very least mills will start on the field ... if they've been managing him through some kind of problem all season, they'll get him to another week

 

[caesar88]

Am I being too hard on Horse here in thinking there is no way he won't play two of our leaders in JPK & Mills in a final?

 

[SSwans2011]

I really don't think Hickey would opt to miss this match, all things considered. Big man's been waiting forva decade to have a crack at finals, and if his desperation in the last two weeks is anything to go by, he wouldn't miss it for the world.

 

[SSwans2011]

Am I being too hard on Horse here in thinking there is no way he won't play two of our leaders in JPK & Mills in a final?

I don't think it's harsh on Horse, because 90% of coaches ever would be in the same boat. Clarkson played Rioli in the 2014 GF off a 2 month stint on the sidelines, and he was electric. Sheedy rushed Hird back for the 2001 GF on the other hand, and it wasn't a great call.

 

[cherub]

This is what worries me the most with playing in tassie.

Especially because we have a game which relies on precise kicking. The wind is so variable.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Blundstone here we come...

 

[Nuggetz]

Am I being too hard on Horse here in thinking there is no way he won't play two of our leaders in JPK & Mills in a final?

He'll give them every opportunity to play. I dont know if he'll play those two and warner in the same side, as both are under injury clouds and warner hasn't played a senior game in ages.