Prediction Finals watch

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I still think given how up and down both the Bulldogs and Richmond have been (even Sydney for that matter) that a top 6 finish and a home final is on the cards.

Bulldogs haven't been up and down at all. Quite consistent and always competitive actually. Richmond, yes.

We'd need to snag 4 from 4 to get a home final.
 

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Has West Coast had many injuries in the midfield? This is the area they've dominated but they don't have great depth. They've surprisingly been able to cover their two key defenders going down, but they could still be exposed in the midfield if they don't have all of their stars in there during the finals
 
I've got a bad feeling about this Essendon game personally. Our form away from home this season has been absolutely putrid (pretty much other than the first 3 quarters against Collingwood in Rd 2) and I can just see us coming out like our shit doesn't stink and blowing it. Should we still win despite the inevitable slow start and lower intensity at the contest than the Tigers game? Yes. Will we? Can't be sure. 65% chance of victory.

The Brisbane game - that's quite simply a win. By a minimum of 40 points. 40 is if we play like shit.

The Eagles are a well drilled machine. They had a bad night and still only just got pipped by the Hawks in the last 10 mins, and their season has been a model of discipline and consistency. We'd need one out of the box to beat them. I rate us a 30% chance. Not confident at all.

As for the Cats game in Rd 23, I just don't see any way we win that. Winning in Geelong is just bordering on inpossible for us - it's a weird venue, with weird breezes and we tend to look like absolute crap there. If the game was being played at any other venue in Victoria I'd rate us a solid chance (45%) of knocking them off, but at Simonds? I don't see it. 30% chance of victory.

I reckon we go 2-2 in the final 4 games and the only way we make the 8 is if a) the cats also go 2-2 (lose to Hawks, and also lose to one of the Pies or Saints), and b) our percentage ends up marginally better than theirs (would help if we could annihilate Brisbane and/or Essendon).

Gut feeling: 9th
 
I've got a bad feeling about this Essendon game personally. Our form away from home this season has been absolutely putrid (pretty much other than the first 3 quarters against Collingwood in Rd 2) and I can just see us coming out like our shit doesn't stink and blowing it. Should we still win despite the inevitable slow start and lower intensity at the contest than the Tigers game? Yes. Will we? Can't be sure. 65% chance of victory.

The Brisbane game - that's quite simply a win. By a minimum of 40 points. 40 is if we play like shit.

The Eagles are a well drilled machine. They had a bad night and still only just got pipped by the Hawks in the last 10 mins, and their season has been a model of discipline and consistency. We'd need one out of the box to beat them. I rate us a 30% chance. Not confident at all.

As for the Cats game in Rd 23, I just don't see any way we win that. Winning in Geelong is just bordering on inpossible for us - it's a weird venue, with weird breezes and we tend to look like absolute crap there. If the game was being played at any other venue in Victoria I'd rate us a solid chance (45%) of knocking them off, but at Simonds? I don't see it. 30% chance of victory.

I reckon we go 2-2 in the final 4 games and the only way we make the 8 is if a) the cats also go 2-2 (lose to Hawks, and also lose to one of the Pies or Saints), and b) our percentage ends up marginally better than theirs (would help if we could annihilate Brisbane and/or Essendon).

Gut feeling: 9th

Geelong will get trounced by Hawks and may well lose to the Pies although will start faves Id expect.
 
I think North Melb drop out

North Melbourne
  • Melb - win
  • St Kilda -win
  • freo - loss
  • western Bulldogs - loss
  • richmond - loss
Adelaide
  • Essendon - win
  • brisbane - win
  • west coast - win
  • Geelong - loss
Geelong
  • Hawks - loss
  • St Kilda - win
  • Collingwood - win
  • Adelaide - win
Richmond

  • Gold Coast - win
  • Collingwood - win
  • Essendon - win
  • North Melbourne - win
My top 8

Fremantle
Hawks
West coast
Western Bulldogs
Sydney
Richmond
Geelong
Adelaide

round 1 -

Freo vs western bulldogs (Perth)
Hawks vs west coast (MCG)
Sydney vs Adelaide (Sydney)
Richmond vs Geelong (MCG)
 
I've got a bad feeling about this Essendon game personally. Our form away from home this season has been absolutely putrid (pretty much other than the first 3 quarters against Collingwood in Rd 2) and I can just see us coming out like our shit doesn't stink and blowing it. Should we still win despite the inevitable slow start and lower intensity at the contest than the Tigers game? Yes. Will we? Can't be sure. 65% chance of victory.

The Brisbane game - that's quite simply a win. By a minimum of 40 points. 40 is if we play like shit.

The Eagles are a well drilled machine. They had a bad night and still only just got pipped by the Hawks in the last 10 mins, and their season has been a model of discipline and consistency. We'd need one out of the box to beat them. I rate us a 30% chance. Not confident at all.

As for the Cats game in Rd 23, I just don't see any way we win that. Winning in Geelong is just bordering on inpossible for us - it's a weird venue, with weird breezes and we tend to look like absolute crap there. If the game was being played at any other venue in Victoria I'd rate us a solid chance (45%) of knocking them off, but at Simonds? I don't see it. 30% chance of victory.

I reckon we go 2-2 in the final 4 games and the only way we make the 8 is if a) the cats also go 2-2 (lose to Hawks, and also lose to one of the Pies or Saints), and b) our percentage ends up marginally better than theirs (would help if we could annihilate Brisbane and/or Essendon).

Gut feeling: 9th
Essendon are pathetic at the moment!

If we can't beat essendon then we don't deserve to make the finals.

Reckon we will win easily.
 

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Essendon are pathetic at the moment!

If we can't beat essendon then we don't deserve to make the finals.

Reckon we will win easily.

This!!!

Essendon are in tank mode. We need to be switched on and bring the same intensity as Friday night and we should win easy.

If we beat Essendon and Brisbane, we will have confidence and without McGovern I think we can roll the West Coat and then finals are a certainty.
 
Eagles beat Richmond in Melb. Eagles are a much tougher side. Don't get too carried away with our win Friday night.
Not sure about that one....Richmond have really pushed those top teams. Beat Freo in Freo (nearly did it again at home), beat hawthorn etc. They are a tough team. Not saying beating Richmond equates to beating Eagles, just saying it is too early to call and we have two must win games to worry about before we even think about that game. Last thing we need is the crows to get ambushed by underestimating the next couple of games!
 
Essendon are pathetic at the moment!

If we can't beat essendon then we don't deserve to make the finals.

Reckon we will win easily.

I agree that they are pathetic.

Our away form is equally pathetic. We did all we could to lose to Carlton away. And Brisbane.

Like I said, we should still win but I'm expecting us to trail at half time. It's who we are.
 
I think North will finish 9th. If the dons beat GWS here the top 9 are the only challenging really. North wont beat Freo or Richmond. It will come down to whether they can beat the Dogs and Dogs would have to start favourites now.
We have to beat Essendon and Brisbane. Do that and the above happens we could lose our last two and still make it regardless of what Geelong do.
 
They might be pathetic but the Giants are pretty awful so far
 
We don't deserve to.play finals I we lose to Essendon especially considering 8 vs 6 day break

IMO we will.win out next 3 and have a finals spot in the bank before the last round
I agree, the next two should easily be wins if we're serious. Gives us a free swing at the Eagles at home the following weeks. Danger and Thommo have dominated at home for a while now which would make it tough for them.
 
We'll beat Geelong. Its all in the shorts.

Geelong at Simonds Stadium in 2015:

v Frem - White shorts - Loss
v GCS - Navy shorts - Win
v NM - White - Loss
v Melb - White - Loss
v WB - Navy - Win
v BL - Navy - Win
v Syd - Navy - Win
v Adel - White - ???

So thats 4-0 when Geelong wear navy shorts, and 0-3 when they wear white. Unless the AFL change their uniform policy for the final round, they will wear the white shorts against us in full home strip. Win guaranteed!
 

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