Europe German Federal Election, 23/02/25 - Everybody Hates Olaf

[Johnny Bananas]

The German governing coalition collapsed after the SPD (analogous to our ALP) and the Greens fell out with the libertarian FDP. The Chancellor (analogous to Prime Minister) Olaf Scholz has set things in motion for an election on February 23. Problem is, everybody hates him. He has the lowest approval rating of any Chancellor in history and the SPD has slid to third in the polls behind the CDU (Angela Merkel's old party, like the moderate wing of our Liberals) and AFD (racist Islamophobic climate deniers, basically a more competent One Nation).

So now his own party are trying to Joe Biden him.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-faces-calls-his-party-abandon-re-election-bid-2024-11-15/

While that didn't work out in the US, his mooted replacement, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, is much more popular than Kamala Harris ever was. So there's a chance for the SPD, if Scholz will do the right thing and leave.

But will he? And in a world where the similarly Islamophobic and Western chauvinist Trump is US leader once again, will the AFD become more palatable as a coalition partner for the CDU, who have previously refused to have anything to do with them?

I ppredict a CDU victory, and every other party being happy to support them in a confidence vote simply to keep the AFD out of government.

 

[Baldur]

Hell, even I hate Olaf.

 

[spinynorman]

Damn, he’s about to go away? And I only just remembered his name!

He never really rose to the dominance of Merkel, with Macron kind of filling that space on a geopolitical stage.

Hopefully the AfD don’t do as well as predicted, but there really aren’t many good options there. Die Linke is in a rut, BSW have some qualities but also some major negatives, and the Greens are a joke (the No Other Land controversy, where an Israeli-Palestinian documentary won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival and the Green Arts Minister apologised for applauding, saying she was clapping the Israeli director but not the Palestinian one, shows the patheticness of that party - the movie comes out in Australia this week though!).

If the UK, USA and France gave the hope of an equal radical left riding to match the newly aggressive right, then Germany has a shocking vacuum on this front (electorally, at least).

 

[Hank Scorpion]

He needed to embrace the eyepatch



CDU-SPD Großkoalition incoming

 

[Andre]

Hopefully he's replaced by a CDU Chancellor who isn't afraid of the dark, who gives Ukraine Taurus missiles. Not a blatant Putin appeaser like Merkel, but Olaf is a coward. Always had to wait for multiple other countries to provide any weapons system firstly and still one's like Taurus he won't allow.

 

[barreness]

Hopefully he's replaced by a CDU Chancellor who isn't afraid of the dark, who gives Ukraine Taurus missiles. Not a blatant Putin appeaser like Merkel, but Olaf is a coward. Always had to wait for multiple other countries to provide any weapons system firstly and still one's like Taurus he won't allow.

You're only considering foreign policy, which isn't how elections are won largely

German industry is suffering without cheap(er) Russian energy; this reflects in jobs, prices, and general public opinion. It's why he's done the phone call to Putin the other day, AfD and others policy is to stop aiding Ukraine and resume trade with Russia, an attempt by him to win back votes

I kinda like Sahra Wagenknecht but I doubt she'll win more than a few seats. A socially conservative(ish) party with a wide ranging 'far' left economic policy is the only chance I see of keeping fascism in check as the world descends into more chaotic conditions

 

[barreness]

Damn, he’s about to go away? And I only just remembered his name!

He never really rose to the dominance of Merkel, with Macron kind of filling that space on a geopolitical stage.

And Macron is very much on the edge with the questions about the French election and coalition forming. With Europe rather rudderless with constant changes of leadership, America swinging between some interesting characters but remaining under(different) corporate control. Multipolarity baby

Hopefully the AfD don’t do as well as predicted, but there really aren’t many good options there. Die Linke is in a rut, BSW have some qualities but also some major negatives, and the Greens are a joke (the No Other Land controversy, where an Israeli-Palestinian documentary won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival and the Green Arts Minister apologised for applauding, saying she was clapping the Israeli director but not the Palestinian one, shows the patheticness of that party - the movie comes out in Australia this week though!).

If the UK, USA and France gave the hope of an equal radical left riding to match the newly aggressive right, then Germany has a shocking vacuum on this front (electorally, at least).

I mean the French kinda with Melechon, who was cucked. Idk where the radical left was in the US or UK? Bernie and Corban were both done in by internal policies, and they were pretty moderate

 

[Johnny Bananas]

 

[Johnny Bananas]

So last week, Pistorius ruled himself out of challenging for the leadership, leaving Scholz as the SPD Chancellor candidate by default (the two sweetest words in the English language!)

Scholz to lead SPD into snap German election after Pistorius withdraws

Chancellor’s popular rival says he is unavailable to stand, leaving Scholz as the default candidate

www.theguardian.com

What's surprising since then is, Scholz's popularity seems to have gone up significantly, albeit from a low base. He's now only losing preferred Chancellor by 35-33.

Scholz gains momentum in chancellor ratings amid SPD campaign launch

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has seen a notable rise in his approval ratings, Azernews reports.

www.azernews.az

Maybe there's life in the old dog yet, though I still think the CDU will win the election.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Elon Musk pens German newspaper opinion piece supporting far-right AfD party

Billionaire Trump adviser said his ‘significant investments’ in the country justified his wading into German politics

www.theguardian.com

Elonbot 3000 weighs in to support the party of xenophobes.

 

[schneebly111]

The German governing coalition collapsed after the SPD (analogous to our ALP) and the Greens fell out with the libertarian FDP. The Chancellor (analogous to Prime Minister) Olaf Scholz has set things in motion for an election on February 23. Problem is, everybody hates him. He has the lowest approval rating of any Chancellor in history and the SPD has slid to third in the polls behind the CDU (Angela Merkel's old party, like the moderate wing of our Liberals) and AFD (racist Islamophobic climate deniers, basically a more competent One Nation).

From what I understand is that unlike Australia, where One Nation will give confidence to the Coalition and the Greens will give confidence to Labor (even if they publicly hate each other) pretty much every party in Germany, SPD, CDU, Greens, whatever will form a Coalition with each other to prevent the AfD getting anywhere near power? So in order for the AfD to have any power they would need complete control and therefore 51% of seats in the Bundestag?

How are they polling now? It seems as if they are getting about 20%, SPD about 18%, CDU about 30%, so they could form a grand coalition (yes, a virtual ALP and moderate Liberals coalition) or a combination of other groups like the BSW.

The only option for the CDU would be a coalition with the AfD, Merz has ruled this out categorically, but will he keep his word? Is a SPD/CDU/others coalition workable over CDU/AfD?

This video from the West shows at least some parts of Germany are very vocally against the AfD despite support rising.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

From what I understand is that unlike Australia, where One Nation will give confidence to the Coalition and the Greens will give confidence to Labor (even if they publicly hate each other) pretty much every party in Germany, SPD, CDU, Greens, whatever will form a Coalition with each other to prevent the AfD getting anywhere near power?

Yes, this is correct. There is a cordon sanitaire against the AfD.

So in order for the AfD to have any power they would need complete control and therefore 51% of seats in the Bundestag?

Yes, unless another party breaks the cordon sanitaire and forms a coalition with them.

The Sweden Democrats, also an anti-immigration and anti-Islam party, used to be in a similar position, but at the last Swedish election the other conservative parties broke the cordon sanitaire and used the SD to help them form government (though they didn't give them any ministries).

There are important differences though. The SD may still want a monocultural society, but they purged a lot of their openly white supremacist and fascist elements, wanting to be seen as a legitimate nationalist conservative party. The AfD haven't cleaned house on that level. And Sweden doesn't have the same historical issues with the far right as Germany, so there was less shame around working with the SD than there would be with the AfD.

How are they polling now? It seems as if they are getting about 20%, SPD about 18%, CDU about 30%, so they could form a grand coalition (yes, a virtual ALP and moderate Liberals coalition) or a combination of other groups like the BSW.

The only option for the CDU would be a coalition with the AfD, Merz has ruled this out categorically, but will he keep his word? Is a SPD/CDU/others coalition workable over CDU/AfD?

Rivalry between the major parties seems less bitter in Germany. The CDU and SPD have formed coalitions numerous times, most recently under Merkel from 2013-2021. It'll be easy enough for them to do that again, perhaps with a third party involved. If Merz opens the can of worms and breaks the cordon sanitaire, he might face a revolt from the moderates in his party. It'd be a lot cleaner to just form a coalition with the SPD. But never say never.