Rumour GFC 2020 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists

[Turbocat]

Brander was rated the best kid in the country at 17 and has been in decline ever since. Doubt he ends up being anymore than another Kolo or Henry.

Its possible... the question is .. has he had oppitunity in his rightful spot?.. and what would the cost be to give him a go. Im not convinced that he is super athletic , and yes maybe Kolo is a reasonable comparison the way he has been used. At least in the highlights I have seen ..he actually seems comfortable kicking a setshot goal

 

[MacStradbroke]

There are always exceptions ..but I have screamed about not single figure picks..no recruitment at draft of young KPP players... and watching Max King play my guess is the club have looked on and wished they had gone harder.

Well there certainly looks like a couple of likely candidates to become gun talls in the future so this year might be the year to do it as at least we have some sort of hand to play with. Might not be as good as the King boys but they do look promising. I especially like the look of Thilthorpe, reminds me of Goldstein a bit.

 

[Turbocat]

pick 1 or 2 should be a great player and Hooper is a crap example because clubs had not worked the draft out at that time

Pick 1 or 2 or 3 or whatever is only a result of who is available adn who a club picks. Its a rare thing that P1 is the best player in that draft.. it all gets down to who you like . If we like someone enough to do a trade like this ..fine. One lives and dies by the choices.

Hooper was 1990 so yes ... a looooong time ago ... but that would be the last time we traded like this example

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Pick 1 or 2 or 3 or whatever is only a result of who is available adn who a club picks. Its a rare thing that P1 is the best player in that draft.. it all gets down to who you like . If we like someone enough to do a trade like this ..fine. One lives and dies by the choices.

Hooper was 1990 so yes ... a looooong time ago ... but that would be the last time we traded like this example

We got pick 1 due to compensation for losing players to Brisbane didn't we?

 

[Turbocat]

Well there certainly looks like a couple of likely candidates to become gun talls in the future so this year might be the year to do it as at least we have some sort of hand to play with. Might not be as good as the King boys but they do look promising. I especially like the look of Thilthorpe, reminds me of Goldstein a bit.

I mention Max King as I remember us being linked to him somehow .. I have not seen enough of either McDonald kicking goals as he has is not just a junior player he is doing against bigger bodies. I'll put this into ...a nice dream .. till we hear something a little more solid

 

[Turbocat]

We got pick 1 due to compensation for losing players to Brisbane didn't we?

Cameron and Hamilton went to Brisbane yes ... was it comp? Im not sure. Certainly the picks we got for the players were lost to Freo were ..which landed us King

 

[Turbocat]

What did Adelaide

No .. I mean North . We are talking kids. Carey was aligned to Sydney and Miller did a deal to get him

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Brander is more of a utility right? A Westhoff kind of player?

He's either a CHF or CHB (played both as a junior). The eagles played him out of position on a wing as they are stacked with talls.

 

[Turbocat]

I agree. Especially with the amount of times top 10 picks don't work out.

Imagine in 2013 you traded away Patrick Cripps and Dom Sheed for one of Matthew Sharenberg, Kade Kolo or James Aish

Everything is unknown. But more chances to pick a gun player in the top 20 the better I think.

imo.. Probably need to have someone like catempire do stats on it ... but games played for top10 compared to 11 to 20 probably are different ... yes there are plenty of example of kids kids slipping thru ... and this year probably will have someone like that. My guess would be the last ten years that the top 5 , top10 reap players that are more reliably right than than later picks ... yes KK was p5 ... but so was Franklin in his year ... a lot depends on assessing the draft talent. Looking back ..most clubs should have gone harder to get into the top 10 in 2018

..the crux of your assertion is ... one pick in the top 5 compared to lets say 3 picks 18,19,20 .... it would be an interesting study.

 

[Turbocat]

He's either a CHF or CHB (played both as a junior). The eagles played him out of position on a wing as they are stacked with talls.

Im not convinced on him...but if the cost is right ..etc. Im not sure he is athletic enough to play forward ..he looks a Brown type lead and mark ... but as I ahve said with others .. let him play and find which role he is best suited for... if it doesnt work out .. I doubt we are too far out of pocket..


and those Weagles supporters who have him under their eye closer than us like him .. so he must have something to offer.

Question ... just what would one say our relationship is like with WC .. reasonable ..good.. bad.. At least a deal got done ..which is an advance on Swans and Dons

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Im not convinced on him...but if the cost is right ..etc. Im not sure he is athletic enough to play forward ..he looks a Brown type lead and mark ... but as I ahve said with others .. let him play and find which role he is best suited for... if it doesnt work out .. I doubt we are too far out of pocket..


and those Weagles supporters who have him under their eye closer than us like him .. so he must have something to offer.

Question ... just what would one say our relationship is like with WC .. reasonable ..good.. bad.. At least a deal got done ..which is an advance on Swans and Dons

I think our relationship with them is ok.

Look I wouldn't overpay for him but I rate him ahead of a lot of the talls likely to be in the later rounds this year and we need tall options who can play immediately and he can so at an appropriate price I'd look at it.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I want a Wayne Carey for this or no thanks

Carey works for Channel 7 and is a little old... but i guess he'd play if you pay him enough. No need for draft pick swaps. lol

 

[Turbocat]

Take this for what you will but a bloke at work claiming to have good sources was telling me today that the reason Daniher was taking so long to announce his intentions was that he was keen to come to Geelong but we were waiting on a decision from Cameron first. Geelong apparently then told him later that Cameron was almost a certainty to come to Geelong so Daniher decided to go to Brisbane instead.

Reading the article I posted ... Brisbane base payment will not get Ess Band1 comp... If Cameron is just using us to get more dollars , he may sign with GWS and we have then got neither. I wonder if it would be possible for us to come back with a latish deal... I remember we thought we had Frawley and the Hawks swooped late.

I cant see how we get Cameron without GWS demanding a trade.


In that article Daniher mentions he wants to play more ruck... it would seem a better fit for us than Brisbane to be honest.

 

[catempire]

imo.. Probably need to have someone like catempire do stats on it ... but games played for top10 compared to 11 to 20 probably are different ... yes there are plenty of example of kids kids slipping thru ... and this year probably will have someone like that. My guess would be the last ten years that the top 5 , top10 reap players that are more reliably right than than later picks ... yes KK was p5 ... but so was Franklin in his year ... a lot depends on assessing the draft talent. Looking back ..most clubs should have gone harder to get into the top 10 in 2018

..the crux of your assertion is ... one pick in the top 5 compared to lets say 3 picks 18,19,20 .... it would be an interesting study.

It would depend how you look at it.

Pick 1 averages 156 games
Pick 12 averages 85 games
Pick 17 averages 71 games

Yet I don’t think anyone would equate 12 + 17 to 1. The chance that you get a star with pick 1 is such a big allure.

However there is some value in “two bites of the cherry”. It’s very hard to quantify. There are some combinations of two picks that you’d prefer over a single higher pick. You’d prefer 2 and 3 over 1 in most drafts but probably not 7 and 8 over 1. You’d certainly prefer 51 and 52 over 50 and probably also 57 and 58 over 50. So the gap probably closes as the picks get earlier in the draft - you need more to compensate for the loss of a very nice pick.

 

[Kyuss]

imo.. Probably need to have someone like catempire do stats on it ... but games played for top10 compared to 11 to 20 probably are different ... yes there are plenty of example of kids kids slipping thru ... and this year probably will have someone like that. My guess would be the last ten years that the top 5 , top10 reap players that are more reliably right than than later picks ... yes KK was p5 ... but so was Franklin in his year ... a lot depends on assessing the draft talent. Looking back ..most clubs should have gone harder to get into the top 10 in 2018

..the crux of your assertion is ... one pick in the top 5 compared to lets say 3 picks 18,19,20 .... it would be an interesting study.

Yeah for sure. You can find examples of it working and plenty where it might have backfired badly. Franklin was top 5 but so was Tambling.
Live trading makes things interesting because you can see if players you may want are actually gettable.
But it would be extremely rare for a side to trade away a top 5 pick for multiple later picks if the talent is as highly rated in the top 5 as you say.
At the end of the day it is still a massive gamble. For every Max King there is a Josh Schache.
And we are still talking top 20 here. Not late picks. Draft picks are like a lottery in some ways. The more you have the more likely you will pick up a good player. Even multiple good players. Look at 2001. You can build a team if you get multiple picks right.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but would you give up Bartel Kelly and Johnson for Luke Hodge? We all wouldve been happy if we had Hodge... but would we have been as good a team? Not so sure.

 

[Tristan34]

If we get Cameron i would prefer to trade up and get DGB. Also wouldn't mind taking a punt on Isiah Winder.. . If we don't get Cameron keep our picks, or trade up for a forward...

 

[Turbocat]

Yeah for sure. You can find examples of it working and plenty where it might have backfired badly. Franklin was top 5 but so was Tambling.
Live trading makes things interesting because you can see if players you may want are actually gettable.
But it would be extremely rare for a side to trade away a top 5 pick for multiple later picks if the talent is as highly rated in the top 5 as you say.
At the end of the day it is still a massive gamble. For every Max King there is a Josh Schache.
And we are still talking top 20 here. Not late picks. Draft picks are like a lottery in some ways. The more you have the more likely you will pick up a good player. Even multiple good players. Look at 2001. You can build a team if you get multiple picks right.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but would you give up Bartel Kelly and Johnson for Luke Hodge? We all wouldve been happy if we had Hodge... but would we have been as good a team? Not so sure.

I think that is the point ... and its factor that is hard to quantify ... but its becoming clearer that some players who succeed at lower level or juniors do not transfer. Id put Schache in Watts and Mitch Brown types ... Is that Jack Lukosius ? Its more talent id and the gumprion to go your own way and not go with the heard. Imo .... if we had P1 in 2018 we take Max King. ..even though we really liked Walsh.

..and there is always more to a selection than just talent. The Haw approach to the Franklin draft was clever .. they knew Rich would take Roughead not Franklin etc.

On. the Hindsight thing .. 2001 was one out of the box ..but fair enough would I trade Bartel, Kelly and Johnson for Hodge . No. .. but would we have traded

Ben Reid, Dan O Keffee and Brent Renouf for a Tom Hawkins ... who bar Father Son would be in and around the pick we are talking about. No doubt.


Its a theoretical discussion ..till it happens ..and then if it happens ..these type of comparision will happen for years to follow

 

[Kyuss]

I think that is the point ... and its factor that is hard to quantify ... but its becoming clearer that some players who succeed at lower level or juniors do not transfer. Id put Schache in Watts and Mitch Brown types ... Is that Jack Lukosius ? Its more talent id and the gumprion to go your own way and not go with the heard. Imo .... if we had P1 in 2018 we take Max King. ..even though we really liked Walsh.

..and there is always more to a selection than just talent. The Haw approach to the Franklin draft was clever .. they knew Rich would take Roughead not Franklin etc.

On. the Hindsight thing .. 2001 was one out of the box ..but fair enough would I trade Bartel, Kelly and Johnson for Hodge . No. .. but would we have traded

Ben Reid, Dan O Keffee and Brent Renouf for a Tom Hawkins ... who bar Father Son would be in and around the pick we are talking about. No doubt.


Its a theoretical discussion ..till it happens ..and then if it happens ..these type of comparision will happen for years to follow

Thats the thing.. you won't know for many years. If we can find a club willing to trade a 1-3 pick for multiple 13-18 then sure. It's worth a look.
But I would be very surprised if that happens if the players in the 1-3 Tom Hawkins / Matt Rowell quality

Whats more likely is trading multiple round 1's just to get into the 6-10 range. And to me that just isn't worth the risk.

 

[Lana]

imo.. Probably need to have someone like catempire do stats on it ... but games played for top10 compared to 11 to 20 probably are different ... yes there are plenty of example of kids kids slipping thru ... and this year probably will have someone like that. My guess would be the last ten years that the top 5 , top10 reap players that are more reliably right than than later picks ... yes KK was p5 ... but so was Franklin in his year ... a lot depends on assessing the draft talent. Looking back ..most clubs should have gone harder to get into the top 10 in 2018

..the crux of your assertion is ... one pick in the top 5 compared to lets say 3 picks 18,19,20 .... it would be an interesting study.

The number of early picks traded by GWS this decade is going to skew the hell out of it next. And while teams talent identifying and the U18 systems is more professional players are more willing to leave clubs for opportunity. I expect the value of draft picks to plummet.

But historically there is a big difference between picks 1 and 5
Using players drafted between 1997 and 2007
8 out 11 player drafted with pick 1 played at least 200 games for the clubs that drafted them, median being 219
4 out 11 player drafted with pick 5 played at least 200 games for the clubs that drafted them, median being 105

5 out of 33 players drafted with picks between 18 to 20 played at least 200 games for the clubs that drafted them, median being 60

Having three shots between 18 to 20 is around 39% chance to get a least one player to 200 games which is slightly better than close to have one shot with pick 5. But this isn't taken into consideration the small chance that multiple players beat this mark

[TD valign="bottom"]

Number of players playing more than 200 games​

[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]

Probability​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

0​

[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]

0.61085​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

1​

[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]

0.32724​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

2​

[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]

0.05844​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

3​

[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]

0.00348​

[/TD]

Also that it isn't pick 5 v 18,19 and 20 but rather pick 5,65,66 v 18,19,20. which might bridge the 3% gap and multiple gab.

 

[foxdog50]

Home – Triple M

www.triplem.com.au

Damo explains how Geelong can afford Shaun Higgins and Jeremy Cameron - Triple M Footy AFL - Omny.fm

omny.fm

 

[Johnny Cattery]

Brander would be an unreal get.

On paper, yes, but watching him in games (only on tele), I would actually prefer Narkle, who has some creativity and dash.

 

[BigCat1]

Tom Browne who seems to be giving 12 hourly updates said the Cameron has told people close to him that he wants to stay at the Giants.

Says it’s unlikely the Cats will get their man.

 

[Turbocat]

Home – Triple M

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Damo explains how Geelong can afford Shaun Higgins and Jeremy Cameron - Triple M Footy AFL - Omny.fm

omny.fm

I doubt anyone on this board has concerns about how he fits in the cap... its what do GWS do. If we pay him 850 ... and GWS have been paying him 1M pa ... it would take a lot of future planning ton say ..let him go ..we will take the pick. Id say the almost certainly threaten to match... in that case the outcome are for us to offer something that means they take the comp , just trade for him or take him in a the draft I doubt anyone will have that type of cap space come draft time. or perhaps withdraw and look at our options.

 

[Turbocat]

Tom Browne who seems to be giving 12 hourly updates said the Cameron has told people close to him that he wants to stay at the Giants.

Says it’s unlikely the Cats will get their man.

If thats the case then fine... lets not mess around

 

[ibuprofen]

Tom Browne who seems to be giving 12 hourly updates said the Cameron has told people close to him that he wants to stay at the Giants.

Says it’s unlikely the Cats will get their man.

Which will silence the media for the next week. Exactly want Cameron would want no matter what he is doing. Media got too intense lately.

He needs to silence the media like Crouch has. Maybe another 20 days.