Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists... Part II

[Two Planks]

I honestly believe these picks are being overvalued. I don’t know if this is due to media or BF or is actually what clubs internally believe them to be worth. If WB essentially want 34 + F2 (likely to be around 30) for 23, good luck to whoever does that deal. Remember that WB are trying to offload this pick to avoid it being swallowed up in the Darcy bid. Whilst they want the best possible deal, I don’t think any right minded club would give up such a premium. I honestly believe a future R2 on its own should be enough and they should take it, or risk being too greedy and getting nothing for it (ie. swallowed up in Darcy bid).

The club would be thinking (or hoping ) our f2 would more likely be mid 30s. So they would be saying its 25 for 36 and 36

 

[Shadow89]

The proposed trade was the other way though, we get their future 2022 pick and trade out our 2021 pick 32.

I'm confused - that's exactly what PO said?? If there are bids coming for the Davey twins, then them trading out their Future 2nd for a current 2nd of ours makes sense for them? It's not the other way, or am I missing something?

 

[BORIS332]

I honestly believe these picks are being overvalued. I don’t know if this is due to media or BF or is actually what clubs internally believe them to be worth. If WB essentially want 34 + F2 (likely to be around 30) for 23, good luck to whoever does that deal. Remember that WB are trying to offload this pick to avoid it being swallowed up in the Darcy bid. Whilst they want the best possible deal, I don’t think any right minded club would give up such a premium. I honestly believe a future R2 on its own should be enough and they should take it, or risk being too greedy and getting nothing for it (ie. swallowed up in Darcy bid).

Why would the Dogs trade out of this year's draft if they need extra points this year to match the Darcy bid? As it stands, if a bid came at pick 3, their picks 23, 43 and 44 would get swallowed up, and their pick 45 would slide down, then come back in. So they'd essentially be left with Darcy and pick 45.

Even if they add further points by trading pick 23 for two of our 30s picks, those 30s picks will still get swallowed up in the Darcy bid and all they'll be left with is an extra pick in the 40s. Not sure it really makes that much difference to them.

 

[BORIS332]

I'm confused - that's exactly what PO said?? If there are bids coming for the Davey twins, then them trading out their Future 2nd for a current 2nd of ours makes sense for them? It's not the other way, or am I missing something?

Sorry, I misread. I suppose that makes sense. But then are Essendon going to need to acquire picks next year to match bids?

 

[year of the cat]

Why would the Dogs trade out of this year's draft if they need extra points this year to match the Darcy bid? As it stands, if a bid came at pick 3, their picks 23, 43 and 44 would get swallowed up, and their pick 45 would slide down, then come back in. So they'd essentially be left with Darcy and pick 45.

Even if they add further points by trading pick 23 for two of our 30s picks, those 30s picks will still get swallowed up in the Darcy bid and all they'll be left with is an extra pick in the 40s. Not sure it really makes that much difference to them.

I assume that if the Bulldogs trade their pick 23 for one of our 30’s picks plus a future second, they get the benefit of a pick (next years second) that they otherwise wouldn’t have and yet still have the points to match the Darcy bid.

 

[petrolium]

Why would the Dogs trade out of this year's draft if they need extra points this year to match the Darcy bid? As it stands, if a bid came at pick 3, their picks 23, 43 and 44 would get swallowed up, and their pick 45 would slide down, then come back in. So they'd essentially be left with Darcy and pick 45.

Even if they add further points by trading pick 23 for two of our 30s picks, those 30s picks will still get swallowed up in the Darcy bid and all they'll be left with is an extra pick in the 40s. Not sure it really makes that much difference to them.

Dogs don’t need extra points for Darcy. They have enough but as you pointed out, they won’t have much left over. You’re right and I agree with you, it won’t make much difference to them, which is why they will/should trade it for the best future pick they can get.

 

[petrolium]

I assume that if the Bulldogs trade their pick 23 for one of our 30’s picks plus a future second, they get the benefit of a pick (next years second) that they otherwise wouldn’t have and yet still have the points to match the Darcy bid.

But we would be stupid to do such a deal.

 

[Shadow89]

Sorry, I misread. I suppose that makes sense. But then are Essendon going to need to acquire picks next year to match bids?

Probably not IMO, as it'll take just a bunch of nothing picks near the end of the draft to match players in the second round. Would make a lot of sense for them if they do want to get rid of it

 

[Footy Smarts]

Brendon Gale in the Herald on the lack of games for kids in the draft due to Covid, saying "We traded our first-rounder to Geelong thinking we will know more about the kids in 2021 and it didn't work out the way we expected."

I wonder where Holmes would go if he was in this draft considering what we've seen. I'd say top 10 for sure, maybe top 5. Considering he was apparently the one Richmond were thinking of taking until we offered our future first I reckon they would be absolutely kicking themselves.

 

[Tackle_happy]

Paywalled, but the West Australian saying Schlensog likely to land here. Have been pretty confident of this one all along, so not surprised in the least if it does happen. If we somehow managed to get a commitment from him pre-draft without DFA (to ward other clubs off), then we could conceivably get him as a rookie - which would be incredible - and give us 5 live picks.

Probably won't happen, but damn would that be a good outcome

If he were to come then I would doubt that he would want to come over as a Rookie - he has been here as a CAT B already - he would be deserving of a proper list spot.

 

[Turbocat]

Brendon Gale in the Herald on the lack of games for kids in the draft due to Covid, saying "We traded our first-rounder to Geelong thinking we will know more about the kids in 2021 and it didn't work out the way we expected."

Bull... they traded it knowing that P20 would at worst be P20 in 2021 but probably P15...and maybe even better.

 

[BORIS332]

I wonder where Holmes would go if he was in this draft considering what we've seen. I'd say top 10 for sure, maybe top 5. Considering he was apparently the one Richmond were thinking of taking until we offered our future first I reckon they would be absolutely kicking themselves.

Holmes' DOB is 29/08/2002, so he's only three months off being in this draft. If you look at the projected top 20 from the phantoms, not many would have been able to replicate his 2021 season. I think you're right with your top 10 estimate.

 

[BORIS332]

The AFL's Road to the Draft podcast did their Phantom today, here's what they had:

1. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (matched bid)
3. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (matched bid)
4. GWS Giants - Josh Gibcus
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Ben Hobbs
9. Richmond - Neil Erasmus
10. Fremantle - Jye Amiss
11. St Kilda - Mac Andrew
12. West Coast - Nasiah Wanganeen Milera
13. Essendon - Matt Johnson
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Sinn
15. GWS Giants - Josh Goater
16. Brisbane - Darcy Wilmot
17. Richmond - Jacob van Rooyen
18. GWS Giants - Josh Fahey (matched bid)
19. Sydney - Tom Brown
20. Melbourne - Blake Howes
21. Brisbane - Campbell Chesser

With three bids inside the first round, it means our pick 22 ends up being pick 25. Players of note still on the board: Arlo Draper, Tyler Sonsie, Matt Roberts, Mitch Knevitt, Zac Taylor, Leek Alleer, Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

, Mitch Owens, Brady Hough.

Edit: Sheahan said he'd take Corey Warner with Fremantle's first pick of the 2nd round, Twomey said Freo might pick Jesse Motlop, he'd choose Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

.

 

[year of the cat]

The AFL's Road to the Draft podcast did their Phantom today, here's what they had:

1. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (matched bid)
3. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (matched bid)
4. GWS Giants - Josh Gibcus
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Ben Hobbs
9. Richmond - Neil Erasmus
10. Fremantle - Jye Amiss
11. St Kilda - Mac Andrew
12. West Coast - Nasiah Wanganeen Milera
13. Essendon - Matt Johnson
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Sinn
15. GWS Giants - Josh Goater
16. Brisbane - Darcy Wilmot
17. Richmond - Jacob van Rooyen
18. GWS Giants - Josh Fahey (matched bid)
19. Sydney - Tom Brown
20. Melbourne - Blake Howes
21. Brisbane - Campbell Chesser

With three bids inside the first round, it means our pick 22 ends up being pick 25. Players of note still on the board: Arlo Draper, Tyler Sonsie, Matt Roberts, Mitch Knevitt, Zac Taylor, Leek Alleer, Sam Butler, Mitch Owens, Brady Hough.

Edit: Sheahan said he'd take Corey Warner with Fremantle's first pick of the 2nd round, Twomey said Freo might pick Jesse Motlop, he'd choose Sam Butler.

I’d say we are almost certain to trade up to grab the Bulldogs first. Deal probably agreed to but the AFL want it to be done on draft night for a bit of drama. Have two bites of that group or something similar to it.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Great news for mine. I know some people may be keener on getting a kid in the draft, but I think we could do with both if possible. Plus, we have no idea where kids in the draft will land and the KPDs we rate may be gone by the pick we intend to use on one.

Do we know if he's already nominated for the draft? My only worry is someone else picks him up that way. I'd be fine picking him up as a DFA and trying to either package two picks to move up or shift one into next year with someone keen on a late second knowing we'll have to hit the draft hard again then too.

He can wait until the draft and let us rookie him but i suspect he wants security and rightly so so we would take him dfa and trade one of our picks up or into next year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The proposed trade was the other way though, we get their future 2022 pick and trade out our 2021 pick 32.

Oh ok yeah they wont do that it will be a future 2nd for one of our current 2nds.

 

[year of the cat]

Am I the only one who’d skip on Schlensog?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I honestly believe these picks are being overvalued. I don’t know if this is due to media or BF or is actually what clubs internally believe them to be worth. If WB essentially want 34 + F2 (likely to be around 30) for 23, good luck to whoever does that deal. Remember that WB are trying to offload this pick to avoid it being swallowed up in the Darcy bid. Whilst they want the best possible deal, I don’t think any right minded club would give up such a premium. I honestly believe a future R2 on its own should be enough and they should take it, or risk being too greedy and getting nothing for it (ie. swallowed up in Darcy bid).

20s is the sweet spot in terms of a quality slider for the right team id be prepared to trade up at the right price.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The AFL's Road to the Draft podcast did their Phantom today, here's what they had:

1. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (matched bid)
3. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (matched bid)
4. GWS Giants - Josh Gibcus
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Ben Hobbs
9. Richmond - Neil Erasmus
10. Fremantle - Jye Amiss
11. St Kilda - Mac Andrew
12. West Coast - Nasiah Wanganeen Milera
13. Essendon - Matt Johnson
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Sinn
15. GWS Giants - Josh Goater
16. Brisbane - Darcy Wilmot
17. Richmond - Jacob van Rooyen
18. GWS Giants - Josh Fahey (matched bid)
19. Sydney - Tom Brown
20. Melbourne - Blake Howes
21. Brisbane - Campbell Chesser

With three bids inside the first round, it means our pick 22 ends up being pick 25. Players of note still on the board: Arlo Draper, Tyler Sonsie, Matt Roberts, Mitch Knevitt, Zac Taylor, Leek Alleer, Sam Butler, Mitch Owens, Brady Hough.

Edit: Sheahan said he'd take Corey Warner with Fremantle's first pick of the 2nd round, Twomey said Freo might pick Jesse Motlop, he'd choose Sam Butler.

If that happened on the night and sonsie and taylor in particular were still there i couldnt trade up fast enough but id love brown to slide to us.

 

[year of the cat]

If that happened on the night and sonsie and taylor in particular were still there i couldnt trade up fast enough but id love brown to slide to us.

Same. Even Draper would appeal at that stage of the draft.

 

[goyoucatters]

Am I the only one who’d skip on Schlensog?

Apparently not. If it's going the way some are suggesting here, it looks like 17 AFL clubs might also be thinking 'meh' regarding his future prospects.

 

[year of the cat]

Apparently not. If it's going the way some are suggesting here, it looks like 17 AFL clubs might also be thinking 'meh' regarding his future prospects.

As a rookie I could cop it, but not on the main list. Prefer others.

 

[Cameron_Jezza]

Oh ok yeah they wont do that it will be a future 2nd for one of our current 2nds.

I said earlier how I think we do it.
Before bids made, trade
23 to us, send Geelong 2022r2,r3 to bulldogs .

After the bid on Darcy, trade
32 to bulldogs for their 2022r2.
Overall, (ignoring the swapping of 2022r2)
23 for 32,geelong2022r3.

About 23 for 32,48 ( we gain 815 points lose 886)..

 

[goyoucatters]

As a rookie I could cop it, but not on the main list. Prefer others.

Would love to see Blake go on and do well. Even if it is with someone else. Like you, though, just not sure I'm all that keen to go back there in preference to starting from scratch with another youngster.

Could be quite a marginal decision either way. But I do find the lack of clamouring for his signature by other clubs to be a reasonable indication that he's not likely to be some incredible pick-up in the short to medium term, anyway. And Skinner being picked up by Port recently indicates that Blake isn't front of mind for every club when they're considering KPP's who've been in the system in the past, either.

 

[BORIS332]

I said earlier how I think we do it.
Before bids made, trade
23 to us, send Geelong 2022r2,r3 to bulldogs .

After the bid on Darcy, trade
32 to bulldogs for their 2022r2.
Overall, (ignoring the swapping of 2022r2)
23 for 32,geelong2022r3.

About 23 for 32,48 ( we gain 815 points lose 886)..

Hasn’t this been outlawed? There was a bit of commotion about it a year or two ago.