Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists... Part II

[BORIS332]

Lol my scenario makes way more sense, as we just end up in the same position we were in without North. Like why involve them at all if we're giving up 32 and 34 ourselves - which is more than enough to match their bid and have points left over.

Even if the Roos get one of the 30's picks and the Dogs get one, then it still gets eaten anyway.

Only way I can see this working, is by doing what another main board poster suggested, and involving the Roos Future 3rd. Dogs get the Roos picks for points and the Roos Future 3rd and Roos get 32 and 34. Which makes no sense for the Dogs IMO, as 34 will be around 36-38 and their pick will be at least that if not closer to the 40's, rather than our pick which would be closer to the 30's. Not to mention the fact that the Roos have said they only want to take 3 picks in this draft.

If that is what happens, then I reckon that's Wells not wanting to trade out of next year's draft, and sacrificing the more speculative picks to pick up who we want.

I swear to god though...if we're doing all this for Conway, I will lose it tomorrow night and call for Wells' head

I think the scenario I posted earlier answers most of your questions (I've updated to use 32 & 34 rather than my original 30 & 32):

Dogs
Out: 23
In: 34, 42, Roos' F3

Cats
Out: 32, 34
In: 23, 47

Roos
Out: 42, 47, F3 (likely to be around 37)
In: 32

To answer your first question, the Roos' future 3rd is involved, that's why they need to be included and where the value for the Dogs lies.

I don't understand your bolded statement. The Roos' future 3rd will be mid-late 30s. Dogs are getting that for nothing in this trade since they're only giving up pick 23 which would've been absorbed in the matched bid anyway. They still keep their own picks in next year's draft so I don't understand the confusion here.

I still think my scenario isn't a great deal for North, though. Maybe 47 isn't included.

Edit: to add a bit of extra info, this gives the Dogs an extra 150 points and leaves each club with:

Cats: 22, 23, 30, 47 (?), 50
Dogs: 34, 42, 43, 44, 45, 52
Roos: 1, 20, 32, 72

 

[year of the cat]

Exactly it just makes no sense. Bizarrely Fox said that if the Cats don’t draft Conway he would most likely slide to the second half of the draft. We’d be bidding against ourselves.

It’s absolutely crazy. I can only assume that the journalist assumes because Conway is a Falcon and we have been ruck deficient in recent years that he’d be sort after by us. Or that someone in our recruiting dept is throwing a curve ball.

 

[BORIS332]

It’s absolutely crazy. I can only assume that the journalist assumes because Conway is a Falcon and we have been ruck deficient in recent years that he’d be sort after by us. Or that someone in our recruiting dept is throwing a curve ball.

This morning Twomey said a lot of clubs bluff and conduct 'dummy interviews' to fuel rumours they're into a certain player when they're not, just to create a diversion. I hope that's the case here.

 

[BigCat1]

It’s absolutely crazy. I can only assume that the journalist assumes because Conway is a Falcon and we have been ruck deficient in recent years that he’d be sort after by us. Or that someone in our recruiting dept is throwing a curve ball.

I mean Rich have 4 200cm ruckman. Haw also have heaps as do Carl. WC have young Williams behind NicNat. North have more than any club.

Maybe Sydney and or even Melb in the mid 30s would be his best bet but it’s not like we didn’t have that neighbourhood cornered.

Would certainly be bizarre trading

 

[bombersboy]

Seems like it's probably:

Dogs
Out: 23
In: 32, 42, Roos' F3

Cats
Out: 30, 32
In: 23, 47

Roos
Out: 42, 47, F3 (likely to be around 37)
In: 30

This gives the Dogs a 298 points surplus plus a future pick. Roos get their pick in the 30s. We move up the order to 23.

I think we are paying overs

 

[Shadow89]

Keep you shirt on it was one word and since deleted. However 32 and 30 next year for 23 isn’t far off shocking none the less. Maybe without the ‘absolutely’

It was your comment about it 'being not too far off the Cameron deal' and 'being absolutely shocking' - when you read it wrong, that pissed me off.

I didn't have a go at someone, you did. Don't act like I'm overreacting when you decided to throw out barbs first. Was no need for it.

 

[Tristan34]

I think we are paying overs

Something else has to be going on there.. Why wouldn't we just offer the roos 30 and 32 for 20, plus a ater future pick if needed.to get it over the line.. We wouldn't need the dogs...

 

[Shadow89]

I think the scenario I posted earlier answers most of your questions (I've updated to use 32 & 34 rather than my original 30 & 32):



To answer your first question, the Roos' future 3rd is involved, that's why they need to be included and where the value for the Dogs lies.

I don't understand your bolded statement. The Roos' future 3rd will be mid-late 30s. Dogs are getting that for nothing in this trade since they're only giving up pick 23 which would've been absorbed in the matched bid anyway. They still keep their own picks in next year's draft so I don't understand the confusion here.

I still think my scenario isn't a great deal for North, though. Maybe 47 isn't included.

Edit: to add a bit of extra info, this gives the Dogs an extra 150 points and leaves each club with:

Cats: 22, 23, 30, 47 (?), 50
Dogs: 34, 42, 43, 44, 45, 52
Roos: 1, 20, 32, 72

Sorry, I should have been clearer. What I was saying, was that if they have a choice between getting our Future 2nd for nothing, or getting North's Future 3rd for nothing, why wouldn't they want the former?

Seems strange to involve the Roos and give up two 30's picks from this draft - when we can just satisfy the Dogs with our Future 2nd and just use the Roos for points for the Dogs/so they can get higher up the order.

Only reason I see it involving a future and not a current pick, is because we don't want to trade out of next year's draft. Works out much better for us and about the same for the Roos, but worse for the Dogs

 

[Cursed Cat]

Just read about the potential pick-swap and Geelong's alleged interest in drafting a Falcons ruckman.

Count me in - couldn't care less if we're ''paying overs'', I've felt we need to draft and develop a decent young ruckman with strong potential for quite some time, if Toby Conway fits that description then let's pull the trigger.

 

[Shadow89]

Just read about the potential pick-swap and Geelong's alleged interest in drafting a Falcons ruckman.

Count me in - couldn't care less if we're ''paying overs'', I've felt we need to draft and develop a decent young ruckman with strong potential for quite some time, if Toby Conway fits that description then let's pull the trigger.

Thing is, he doesn't. He's average at best, has been compared to Oscar McInerney from Brisbane (who is a nothing ruckman), and only has size ala Mumford, which he uses for his ruck craft. No speed, no leap, no agility, ability to play as an extra mid, play as a forward etc.

Do not want one bit. Theres a reason he's touted to go anywhere from 25-40 and not Top 10 - despite being basically the only pure ruckman in the draft.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If we wanted to replace Hawkins or Stanley we should've drafted their replacement 4-5 years ago, not next year. Hawkins' replacement is JC/Esava, Stanley's is Ceglar/Neale/Tsap.

I mean i would argue those younger guys may well not make it plus JC is nearly 30 and ceglar is 30. Regardless the point was with key talls over 30 we need to draft talls and next years R1 will be as good a talls crop as ive seen in 5-10 years i wouldnt trade that pick.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Thing is, he doesn't. He's average at best, has been compared to Oscar McInerney from Brisbane (who is a nothing ruckman), and only has size ala Mumford, which he uses for his ruck craft. No speed, no leap, no agility, ability to play as an extra mid, play as a forward etc.

Do not want one bit. Theres a reason he's touted to go anywhere from 25-40 and not Top 10 - despite being basically the only pure ruckman in the draft.

I mean bar the ability to play forward darcy had all those weaknesses in his draft year and hes become a gun. Im not saying conway will be that good but i wouldnt write him off due to rough edges.

 

[BORIS332]

Sorry, I should have been clearer. What I was saying, was that if they have a choice between getting our Future 2nd for nothing, or getting North's Future 3rd for nothing, why wouldn't they want the former?

Seems strange to involve the Roos and give up two 30's picks from this draft - when we can just satisfy the Dogs with our Future 2nd and just use the Roos for points for the Dogs/so they can get higher up the order.

Only reason I see it involving a future and not a current pick, is because we don't want to trade out of next year's draft. Works out much better for us and about the same for the Roos, but worse for the Dogs

It's because the Dogs need 2,014 points to match the Darcy bid. They currently have 1,718 points but if they trade out 23 (652) they'll only have 1,066 points and need to trade in 948 points.

They would need 2x our 30s picks to have enough points to match, but then they wouldn't get the value of a future pick because we wouldn't give up 32, 34 and a future pick just for 23.

So we need to include the Roos to give the Dogs 42 to cover points and either our future pick or the Roos to give the Dogs value out of the trade.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I mean Rich have 4 200cm ruckman. Haw also have heaps as do Carl. WC have young Williams behind NicNat. North have more than any club.

Maybe Sydney and or even Melb in the mid 30s would be his best bet but it’s not like we didn’t have that neighbourhood cornered.

Would certainly be bizarre trading

Williams is a fwd/ruck not a no1 ruck so wce might take conway at 29 as they have no ruck depth. I agree rich wont take him.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Do we have a pick tonight?

Not at this stage.

 

[Shadow89]

I mean bar the ability to play forward darcy had all those weaknesses in his draft year and hes become a gun. Im not saying conway will be that good but i wouldnt write him off due to rough edges.

Agreed. But to be fair, you yourself have said you wouldn't take him at our 20's picks either. I've said the only way we should take him, is if we know Neale is going home, and and it's with our Pick 30 or above.

Under no circumstances should we be trading up in order to get a so so ruck - when there are so many gun mids in that range.

Not to mention, that barely anyone actually wants a ruck in this draft (WC is the only club I can think of), so it'd be silly to pick him that early, when competition for his services is so scarce (as others have said)

 

[dazbroncos]

Do we have a pick tonight?

no.. Rd 1 only Wed night.... and then Rd2- finish next night.... WTF over....

GO Catters

 

[Drunkcat]

Conway he is a good tap Ruckman i will give that and he is a ruckman that can take a Mark,...I have had my fun now over to the club i don't care who we get just hope they can become a good player for the club

 

[BigCat1]

Williams is a fwd/ruck not a no1 ruck so wce might take conway at 29 as they have no ruck depth. I agree rich wont take him.

Agreed but they have more holes in their list than we do. After the Kelly debacle their supporters would go nuclear if they used their 2nd decent pick in 3 drafts on a long term Ruck. With 4 picks after 30 in our original hand if we really wanted Conway we’d have been a 99% chance.

We aren’t stupid so I’d say it’s almost no chance. If you threw up #23 as a trade you’d get your pick of the leagues 2nd rucks.

 

[Shadow89]

It's because the Dogs need 2,014 points to match the Darcy bid. They currently have 1,718 points but if they trade out 23 (652) they'll only have 1,066 points and need to trade in 948 points.

They would need 2x our 30s picks to have enough points to match, but then they wouldn't get the value of a future pick because we wouldn't give up 32, 34 and a future pick just for 23.

So we need to include the Roos to give the Dogs 42 to cover points and either our future pick or the Roos to give the Dogs value out of the trade.

Nope, they've got Pick 52 too, which is worth 246 points - so 1333 after they trade out 23 by my calcs.

They only need picks 42 and 47 (711) points to cover the deficit between 1333 and the points to match Darcy after discount applied (2013).

That's why it made more sense in my head, to just cut out the middle man and not involve the Roos' Future 3rd (37-40ish)- as it's basically a like for like swap with our Pick 34 (37ish) this year.

In my scenario we either give the Dogs our Future 2nd and they get 42 and 47 from the Roos - and then give the Roos 32, to get 23

OR

We go with Ryan's purported scenario and give up 32 and 34 to the Roos, 42, Future 3rd and 47 going to the Dogs, and 23 coming to us.

Mine is much less legwork lol, but like I said, I can see it happening if we want Roos to hand over the future, so we can keep ours.

 

[strauchnyy]

Frustrating the last 5 or 6 yrs the AFL website has had a whole lot of highlight videos for pretty much every player who nominated for the draft.

Nothing this year except some interviews and about 30 odd “generation next” clips.

I hope they release highlights of all players drafted as the draft occurs…

 

[foxdog50]

only explanation is they are confident of someone they like with those two b2b picks and are not overly confident of finding who they like with their 30's picks.

not much rationality comes into my head beyond that.

I just think we're giving to far much away just to move up 8 or so spots n they get more points for this... silly I think...

 

[foxdog50]

Sorry yes, we should be getting the 47. I'll update the post.

So we are getting 23 n 47 if we swap the 2 picks in the 30s?

 

[Sire of Claude]

I've given up on trying to follow the pick swapping machinations.

I continue to question the value of the deal if it's just to get Conway and/or Knevitt. How many thousands of hours do we waste in ranging over the whole draft pool if instead we could just send the spotters down the road to check out the Falcons.

Our immediate need for mids and run etc. is desperate. This is not to say Conway won't make it in time - he might - but remember Neale was highly rated in his draft year and we went to the trouble to get Zorba, who is looking very strong.

 

[foxdog50]

If thats the deal its better than I thought we would get

That would be a fair deal for all clubs... better than other reports