Rumour GFC 2023 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt1

[cats_09]

As we are now getting into the season and we are starting to get a bit more serious with discussion, seems a suitable time to post the following as it's repeatedly shown itself to be a value reference tool in trade & draft discussion

And as per normal, thanks to Lore for putting this together - always a fantastic reference tool



And yes this post is now stickied - makes it easy to keep track of (can easily reverse this though if needed)

 

[catempire]

Its not bc gawn is 32 and they have to get another backup ruck and no one decent will come for 300k.

And as for the other bit i get your point but decent quality key forwards (not journeyman types) are the rarest type of player to get on the market. Honestly even if they had 500k (which they wont get by clearing grundy) name me which gettable decent get forward they are goimg to get for that? I dont see it which is why they are better off keeping him.

You’re mathing wrong.

 

[Warhorse]

Exactly.

It works both ways. They would only save 300k means they could trade one of their average fwd's on 300k a year and upgrade to something very good

 

[Gee Class Loco]

5% of the cap on a back up plan? Poor management

Not really.
Back Ups or insurance costs. Should and is part of good management.
Probably about 15% of your cap i'd say. About 2 million.
They include back up tall backs, tall forwards, a ruckman or two a mid or two... etc etc..
They can be both back ups(older/seasoned players) and bringing in youngsters if you get the mix and money right.
A ready made replacement like Grundy at 500k is a bargain IMO but not to some.
Getting a Flynn or Sweet might cost ya the average wage about $350-390k so they aren't far off.

 

[Turbocat]

I’m happy if they see it that way because it’s dumb list management.

well... we are talking about the team that recruited a ruckman on 650 while their captain and arguably the best ruckman in the afl is moved to the forwardline.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

I say we just take the "long blond hair and hairband" approach to list management.

Get Worpel and Horne-Francis in

Am dead against this - it would also mean taking Naughton, and every time I'm watching the Dogs I think I'm seeing Vitas Gerulitas.

 

[Turbocat]

Anyway ... love a good debate its why Im here..and I presume why most others contribute. The key to the Grundy situation to us is ...

would he be a good fit for us ... at 650 pa for the 24,25,26,27 seasons. 30 april 15. Would we want him more than a year or two ..if Conway is our future?

Would Melb trade him on the cheap ..so that we balance the contract against him almost being at no draft cost?

 

[bulletproof]

The way I would look at Grundy is that he is the only available option that could ‘possibly’ improve our midfield. Which is our biggest weakness in the short-term.

At his best, he ‘almost’ plays like an extra midfielder.

I don’t think it is perfect, but if cheap, maybe…

 

[calder_daddy]

It is interesting, because I highly doubt he leaves Victoria.

- Collingwood: No chance, exactly what they don't need

- Richmond: No chance, already did the equivalent with Taranto & Hopper last year

- Norf: I assume he wants success?

- St Kilda: See above, already have enough accumulators

- Carlton: Dont have the cap space, already have enough mids

- Western Bulldogs: See above

- Melbourne: Cap space, already have enough mids

- Hawthorn: Doesn't fit their list build age profile wise.

- Geelong: Fits perfectly age profile wise, have the cap space, and a gaping midfield hole that needs to be filled.

I did stalk his Instagram last night.
Loves golf

I think Golf in Geelong pays a lot more to someone’s thinking than we might think.
Just imagine him hearing Rohan had to leave early because he had an early game.
Would prick his ears up that’s for sure

 

[D BRIDGE]

I get your point but ..they are still getting a R1 pick because we are paying 900. I don't mind being congenial but not that congenial ... LOL

You wouldn't straight swap Sav for Parish?

 

[moond0g]

Been discussed over on the Bombers board that they'll happily trade for McKay.

They reckon their compo will be pick 8-10, and that's simply better than what we can offer them barring a disaster in these last 3 weeks.

North would want pick 3 as compo for McKay

 

[moond0g]

yep ..its certainly look like only Collingwood would be contributing to Grundys pay. Tick to you. Cross to the media that reported otehr wize.

Melb would not pay anything and therefore has no incentive to trade him cheap.

Melbourne may also pay some of his wage to incentivise the move, if they want his salary off the books.

So in the end both Collingwood and Melbourne would be chipping in. You might be able to get Grundy for $500-$550k a year

 

[Warhorse]

Buyer beware with Grundy. Played Collingwood and Adelaide to get a massive contract. Now at Melbourne not getting a game.

Now possibly 3rd club. I would pass.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Not really.
Back Ups or insurance costs. Should and is part of good management.
Probably about 15% of your cap i'd say. About 2 million.
They include back up tall backs, tall forwards, a ruckman or two a mid or two... etc etc..
They can be both back ups(older/seasoned players) and bringing in youngsters if you get the mix and money right.
A ready made replacement like Grundy at 500k is a bargain IMO but not to some.
Getting a Flynn or Sweet might cost ya the average wage about $350-390k so they aren't far off.

Ok so if you have one back up ruck on 5% of your cap and you say 15% on back up is good management then you have 10% leg for back ups in every other position right? 1.3m

If you spend that then you have enough back up for 3 average salary players on every other position.

I think it crossed the line between insurance and over capitalising on a position. Especially given Melbourne have a good enough midfield that they should be able to read oppo taps.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Dees traded pick 27 for Grundy and are paying him 650k a year.

They did it with the expectations that Gawn/Grundy would be the best ruck combo in the comp and Gawn would play forward more leaving Grundy to hold down the majority of the rucking minutes.

I doubt the Dees make that trade if they were told that Grundy would be out of the side and playing VFL in year one.

That doesn't mean that they won't keep him... But it's certainly not ideal or what they were planning.

Pick 27 and 650k x 4 years for a guy not in your best side, that's like Port coughing up for Sav and playing him in the SANFL

It's a terrible trade if things stay status quo.

Neither party would be loving it... Dees, Grundy, and even Gawn.

 

[Kitcat]

Dees traded pick 27 for Grundy and are paying him 650k a year.

They did it with the expectations that Gawn/Grundy would be the best ruck combo in the comp and Gawn would play forward more leaving Grundy to hold down the majority of the rucking minutes.

I doubt the Dees make that trade if they were told that Grundy would be out of the side and playing VFL in year one.

That doesn't mean that they won't keep him... But it's certainly not ideal or what they were planning.

Pick 27 and 650k x 4 years for a guy not in your best side, that's like Port coughing up for Sav and playing him in the SANFL

It's a terrible trade if things stay status quo.

Neither party would be loving it... Dees, Grundy, and even Gawn.

True. Also, if is not a good look for Melbourne to have a highly paid star player like Grundy in the VFL. Dissatisfaction on both sides. He would be the elephant in the changing room.

 

[CHAWKTS]

My fears on Jack look like they are real. Don’t think we will see him back this year and worry about impact on 2024. As I posted a few days ago, I reckon this injury will have a profound impact on Geelongs views in terms of SAV. Whether it changes SAV’s mind might depend on how much and how long Geelongs offer is

 

[moond0g]

I’m happy if they see it that way because it’s dumb list management.

tbf the dumb list management decision was probably recruiting Grundy in the first place. Now it's about making the best of a bad situation for the dees

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Ok so if you have one back up ruck on 5% of your cap and you say 15% on back up is good management then you have 10% leg for back ups in every other position right? 1.3m

If you spend that then you have enough back up for 3 average salary players on every other position.

I think it crossed the line between insurance and over capitalising on a position. Especially given Melbourne have a good enough midfield that they should be able to read oppo taps.

If it works out then you’re a genius if it doesn’t you’re Ned Guy.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If it works out then you’re a genius if it doesn’t you’re Ned Guy.

I just think they could do way better with those resources

 

[Kobe Gryant]

If it works out then you’re a genius if it doesn’t you’re Ned Guy.

Fast forward a few years and Ned Guy looks somewhat vindicated.

Treloar is a solid footballer, but nothing remarkable. Stephenson is a spud and Phillips is no longer on an AFL list.

What it speaks to for me is that players who play for Collingwood get remarkably overrated by the media.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I just think they could do way better with those resources

For me it’s either you pay $375k for Flynn or $600k for Grundy.
No brainer for the extra $225k

 

[iameviljez]

For me it’s either you pay $375k for Flynn or $600k for Grundy.
No brainer for the extra $225k

Yeah, exactly - the extra $225k goes toward improving the team that actually plays week-in, week-out. Do not overspend on backups that will spend most of the year mooching about in the VFL. This is especially true with a player as durable as Max Gawn. Spending extra is just pissing money away.

By the way, the average AFL salary is $375k and I doubt that a backup ruckman is getting anything like that much.

Don't underestimate the value of the backup ruckman being happy to play in the VFL most weeks, too. That was one of the really good things about guys like Fort, Abbott, Stephenson, Ceglar, Jenkins - they were happy to mentor young guys, play in the magoos most weeks, and put in an honest day's work in the AFL twice a year. Grundy will not be happy playing VFL and rightly so.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

For me it’s either you pay $375k for Flynn or $600k for Grundy.
No brainer for the extra $225k

I think there's some brain involved but it's not an invalid point.

I don't think Flynn would be on that either

 

[Hinkley29]

With the power of hindsight Cameron was cheap

Without wanting to be “that guy”, I said exactly that at the time of the trade.

It was an absolute steal. It was at the time.

 

[Warhorse]

For me it’s either you pay $375k for Flynn or $600k for Grundy.
No brainer for the extra $225k

That 225k is the difference in pay between Tom MCartin and Jeremy Cameron.