Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Is Bailey Smith a done deal?

You're in the wrong place if you want a 100% yes or no answer to that question.

Put it this way, it's more likely than unlikely right now.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

You're in the wrong place if you want a 100% yes or no answer to that question.

Put it this way, it's more likely than unlikely right now.

So to put it another way, everyone is guessing and nobody has a clue right now.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Is Bailey Smith a done deal?

Trade period hasn’t started yet…. So no.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Trade period hasn’t started yet…. So no.

FootyLad0 can we get a countdown check please

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Nash signing on for Hawthorn a bit of a blow. I expect that had we got him we would send Blitz back to KPD and ruck SDK going forward which solves a ruck issue while adding a much needed bigger body through the middle. You'd basically add three new positions to your b22 for the price of a contract

 

[Jumping Jack]

The Riley O'Brien chatter has certainly increased from contacts I've spoken to in the last few weeks.

If he's gettable, I'd say he fits the bill extremely well as a replacement for Stanley. 28 years of age - has a year to run on a contract at Adelaide. Ranked as "elite" for hitouts in the AFL, and hitouts to advantage. Not sure if he'd look at a move back to Victoria but he would be a great pick up. I'm not sure Conway has a full season of bang and crash in him for a few years yet.

A 3-4 year deal for O'Brien would be perfect - but probably wishful thinking. All I know is that Geelong have asked the question via his manager on a few occasions this year. If nothing else, it shows that we are at least focused on bringing in a decent ruck as insurance while Conway develops and gets his body right.

 

[D BRIDGE]

The Riley O'Brien chatter has certainly increased from contacts I've spoken to in the last few weeks.

If he's gettable, I'd say he fits the bill extremely well as a replacement for Stanley. 28 years of age - has a year to run on a contract at Adelaide. Ranked as "elite" for hitouts in the AFL, and hitouts to advantage. Not sure if he'd look at a move back to Victoria but he would be a great pick up. I'm not sure Conway has a full season of bang and crash in him for a few years yet.

A 3-4 year deal for O'Brien would be perfect - but probably wishful thinking. All I know is that Geelong have asked the question via his manager on a few occasions this year. If nothing else, it shows that we are at least focused on bringing in a decent ruck as insurance while Conway develops and gets his body right.

I have never understood why ROB is so unliked.

He flogs Stanley something shocking every time they meet and gets plenty of taps.

He is a very strong bodied ruck.

I think getting him on the cheap (if possible) would be a good fit to upgrade our current ruck setup + hold space for a couple of year until Conway is ready.

Without looking at stats I’d assume ROB and Pittonet would be very similar style rucks.

 

[Lana]

I have never understood why ROB is so unliked.

He flogs Stanley something shocking every time they meet and gets plenty of taps.

He is a very strong bodied ruck.

I think getting him on the cheap (if possible) would be a good fit to upgrade our current ruck setup + hold space for a couple of year until Conway is ready.

Without looking at stats I’d assume ROB and Pittonet would be very similar style rucks.

He is in the bottom 33% by position in a lot of non hitout related stats

 

[D BRIDGE]

He is in the bottom 33% by position in a lot of non hitout related stats

He is far from the perfect player but baths Stanley every time I see them compete.

Ruck stats: Elite
Possession stats: Below average

If he was cheap enough, I'd be keen.

Not sure there are a bunch of great options out there, but we need something.

 

[Jumping Jack]

He is in the bottom 33% by position in a lot of non hitout related stats

Was Stanley in the bottom 5% ?

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Nash=Missed Opportunity.
Bugger!
Would've been a handy get IMO.

 

[Lana]

He is far from the perfect player but baths Stanley every time I see them compete.

Ruck stats: Elite
Possession stats: Below average

If he was cheap enough, I'd be keen.

Not sure there are a bunch of great options out there, but we need something.

It's funny that the last few pages featured a discussion on the lack of correlation between wins and hitouts

Ruck stats are near proportional the number of ruck contests attended more than any reflection of efficiency or effectiveness. Which are really hard to gauge. Top 10% for spoils by position, which means his defensive positioning can't be that bad, but we'd prefer the guy that goes for the mark. Other than that gives little around the ground. Low for marks, low for goals.

For the right price it wouldn't hurt to have him on our list. We don't really have someone capable of holding down the traditional workload of the ruck role for a season. He just isn't the typical type of ruck Scott seems to favour. Sets a floor rather than adding absolute value.

 

[Jumping Jack]

It's funny that the last few pages featured a discussion on the lack of correlation between wins and hitouts

Ruck stats are near proportional the number of ruck contests attended more than any reflection of efficiency or effectiveness. Which are really hard to gauge. Top 10% for spoils by position, which means his defensive positioning can't be that bad, but we'd prefer the guy that goes for the mark. Other than that gives little around the ground. Low for marks, low for goals.

For the right price it wouldn't hurt to have him on our list. We don't really have someone capable of holding down the traditional workload of the ruck role for a season. He just isn't the typical type of ruck Scott seems to favour. Sets a floor rather than adding absolute value.

Yeah agree and that's my point. At the right price and a reasonable contract overall, I think a player at O'Brien's level would be a good fit.

I think Scott will hold a view that we don't need to give away too much and try to land a star, but a good serviceable (and reliable) ruck would go a long way to having us well placed for a few years as Conway develops. It will be an interesting watch - Stanley is 100% retiring so we need a replacement on the list whilst others develop.

Can't go into 2025 with another plan to simply wallpaper over the gaping ruck hole. If Conway's cardboard joints are an ongoing challenge then we need more than a plan b back up in that position.

 

[And_ROOS]

It's funny that the last few pages featured a discussion on the lack of correlation between wins and hitouts

Ruck stats are near proportional the number of ruck contests attended more than any reflection of efficiency or effectiveness. Which are really hard to gauge. Top 10% for spoils by position, which means his defensive positioning can't be that bad, but we'd prefer the guy that goes for the mark. Other than that gives little around the ground. Low for marks, low for goals.

For the right price it wouldn't hurt to have him on our list. We don't really have someone capable of holding down the traditional workload of the ruck role for a season. He just isn't the typical type of ruck Scott seems to favour. Sets a floor rather than adding absolute value.

In terms of output around the field he is fairly on par with Blicavs, Blicavs this year averages slightly more disposals but then O'Brien smashes Blicavs in average hit outs, would be interesting to see how they compare for hitouts to advantage.

If O'Brien was cheap enough and came in to allow Blicavs to go back to being either 2nd ruck or a defender I would be happy with that. At the very least O'Brien stops other teams getting easy hit outs that allow cheap clearances.

 

[STPer18]

For anyone who enjoys the secret herbs and spices of player ratings, Geelong have the 2nd most u23's performing above expected performance (featuring big Conway).

 

[dont stop me meow]

Another FA off the list

Reckon it might be worth us having a crack at this Dangerfield bloke

 

[Jeff76]

Wanted to update you lot. Obviously the strong word is Smith to Geelong is a lock.

I got an update today and have the inside scoop on this all. Geelong links are strong and genuine. Baz is 100% leaving bulldogs.

BUT Baz preference is Hawthorn STILL. At this stage he prefers a move there, the Hawks have pitched to him he will be the main man in the midfield. He also grew up a Hawks fan. Geelong are pushing for him hard still but right now Hawthorn are likelier.

Barrass to the Hawks is 100% not happening, their main targets are Battle and Bazlenka.

I reckon the Hawks have Smith in the bag, I’m tipping Baz and Battle will be in poo and wee colours next year.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Cataholic]

I reckon the Hawks have Smith in the bag, I’m tipping Baz and Battle will be in poo and wee colours next year.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

You might want to keep reading past the post you quoted .....

 

[D BRIDGE]

I reckon the Hawks have Smith in the bag, I’m tipping Baz and Battle will be in poo and wee colours next year.

Some people say Hawks, more would say us.

Time will tell.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Cal Twomey still saying the same as last week, that Cats are still in the box seat for Smith and would be a big u turn for him to change his mind and go to Hawks.

There's not really much in it, but he did mention Macrae as a potential target for us if we wanted to further boost our midfield.

Also a nothing bit of info but thought I'd post it anyway. Tom Morris still thinks Oliver is available and Cats would be leading the race for him should he and Melbourne agree to part ways. However Sam Edmund thinks nothing will happen in that space.

 

[Hinkley29]

I feel like you jinxed him with this comment.

Haha, maybe I did.

He is still my favourite current Geelong player though. Who hasn’t ended up in hospital after a big night?

Boys will be boys

 

[Hinkley29]

If you want an explanation of the exchange, he wanted to get into a pointless back and forth about one detail of your post to try and ridicule you, and is now back tracking to say he did not want to engage in a pointless exchange. He knows what you meant, everyone knows what you meant, but he wants his "gotcha" moment anyway.

Wow, it is almost like you are living in my brain.

 

[Hinkley29]

He is far from the perfect player but baths Stanley every time I see them compete.

Ruck stats: Elite
Possession stats: Below average

If he was cheap enough, I'd be keen.

Not sure there are a bunch of great options out there, but we need something.

How does he go against ruckmen not called Rhys Stanley?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

He is far from the perfect player but baths Stanley every time I see them compete.

Ruck stats: Elite
Possession stats: Below average

If he was cheap enough, I'd be keen.

Not sure there are a bunch of great options out there, but we need something.

I remember once earlier in ROBs career that happened but I don't think it's been as clear cut since.

 

[DanA]

In reference to hitouts being useless as per the stat that winning hitouts only results in a win 51% of the time. It has one of the lowest win percentages of any stat available

I really think this is where statistics can be misinterpreted. Hitouts are basically an individual stat, 1 out of 44 players on the field can increase you chances of winning by 1.6%. Maybe as a team that’s not a lot but if 5-6 players improve your chances of winning by 1.6% it starts to add up. And that’s only part of a rucks contribution, they are often influential in terms of clearances, presenting as a marking target, and dropping back and contesting in the air.

In addition, the stat is kind of useless IMO without margin. What’s the win rate if you win hitouts by 1 vs 10%, 30%, 50%. Geelong had 70% less hitouts than North Melbourne, we won that specific game but I do wonder if you ever hit a tipping point where hitouts stats to influence things more.