Analysis Hawks 2022 Hypothetical trades (read the pinned post)

[Strapping Young Lad]

Firstly, the "No Kane Cornes

Kane Cornes

Age

42

Ht

183cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

11.0

5star

M

5.2

5star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

3star

" Rule is back

 

[Noel Gallagher]

yes I did, based on my gut feel before a morning dump. I suggest you don’t rely on my gut feel before a morning dump to get through your day. I certainly don’t and I enjoy my morning dump.

Using the house analogy - yes we sold three houses below their market value but its not like we sold them for free. We got something back and use that capital to rebuild the portfolio. At the end of the day we didn't have a lot of leverage - everyone knew we were desperate to unload Mitchell, were unlucky with JOM - pic 19 was ours till Freo came calling and Jack being a free agent took matters out of our hands

FWIW i'm very bullish on Meek and like the look of Stephens, we move on and look forward to the draft

 

[Coach Killer]

Anybody who thinks we did well over the past week is deluded.

We got f***ed over.

Yea Nah. We’re good with clearing the list cloggers and bringing in 2 gun mids and a ripper ruck whilst adding to our draft hand this year and next year.

 

[FB19]

And so your point?

Was a joke Coach Killer was bragging about taking a dump and then prophesising TOM and JOM were staying. Thanks for sucking the fun out!

 

[Hodgey 15]

MM saying they may look at using the F2 to move in to this year's draft period.

 

[Hawk1986]

A few interesting takeaways from this (1) clearly trying to bundle picks (2) could trade that future pick back into this draft

 

[Linda CRS]

The melts on here are entertaining and way off the mark.

Both Amon & Stephens are really good pick ups and best 22 next year and Meek provides ruck support. All ticks.

Don’t care whose gone out they’re all has beens and no longer at the club. We lost nothing.

Bring on 2023.

Not sure its way off the mark. The list manager and football manager stated at a zoom function I was on for our club to improve we desperately had to get 2 picks under 10, one pick between 5/8 (as it was then mid season) was not enough and in their words they needed to be courageous. Clearly stated not much currency in O’Meara or Mitchell, that proved correct. We have pick 6 and lost Gunston on top. Waverley would be an interesting place today.

 

[The hands of stone]

People complain that we win games and miss getting a real top end draft pick , then complain we go really young and might finish near the bottom .......getting a real top end draft pick .
Classic stuff .
People complain about Titch and JOM , then complain we trade them .

Lets see how draft night goes , even pre season , gee even maybe give it 6-8 games next season before we press the panic button.

Sam has said numerous times we are building a list to win flags , not end up in middle ground with quick fixes.
If its a step back, so be it .

 

[yeahmate]

Imagine being Karl Amon

10

Karl Amon

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

294.5

4star

D

21.0

5star

K

15.0

5star

HB

6.0

3star

M

6.0

5star

T

2.0

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

146.8

3star

today haha

 

[FB19]

Not sure its way off the mark. The list manager and football manager stated at a zoom function I was on for our club to improve we desperately had to get 2 picks under 10, one pick between 5/8 (as it was then mid season) was not enough and in their words they needed to be courageous. Clearly stated not much currency in O’Meara or Mitchell, that proved correct. We have pick 6 and lost Gunston on top. Waverley would be an interesting place today.

Yes I think that’s the right lens to view this trade period against their own stated objectives. It’s not a bad result but ordinary I think is the right word. it’s well below what we need to move through this rebuild quickly but ultimately the evaluation is against what was realistic. I think we could have got picks in the 20s for both TOM and JOM and meek and Stephens in the 40s so feels unders there but obviously just my opinion. I have posted several times this is all peripheral our asset is cap space and we didn’t use it and we will pay for that with a slower climb up the ladder. Hope the climb starts sharply in 2024 off the back of our new saviour Harley Reid!

 

[Jazzfan]

I'm not sure I follow.

If a bid comes on Davey at, say, 17, they need 820 points to match...

Straight away, that's their next pick, 22 gone, isn't it? I don't think they have the option to use later, dud picks while they have 22

If Davey is bid around there, we can offer them the equivalent points.

Either way, for them, pick 22 disappears. The only question is whether another team could offer more than us, or whether Essendon could be bothered helping us out. (If we had to, we could chuck in 41 instead of 48, or 65 as well, then the extra points would improve their next pick)

My take on it is mate that Essendon aren't going to hand 22 to a rival simply for points (they have more than us) and to maintain a late presence in a weak draft.

If we were to offer as you have suggested, I'd expect they would just use pick 22 (and their later picks) on Davey.

They'll without doubt be shopping 22 on draft night, and depending who is left on the board there could be multiple suitors.

I just can't see a scenario, looking at it fron Essendon's view also, where we could keep both of next year's seconds and get 22.

Interesting that Mark McKenzie said we might look at using one of our seconds to get into this year's draft. Ideally I'd hope we could do better than 22.

 

[Brishawk]

This presumably applies to all 17 clubs that didn't get Bowes and pick 7?

Do we want to emulate/beat the best in the league or follow the crowd?

Geelong have been landing very generous deals with gc since 2019. Beyond time for us to lift our game in this space.

 

[daniel23]

Imagine being Karl Amon today haha

How amateur do you think the club Is that he isn't told future plans when we are trying to win him over ?. I mean we tried the same Thing last year he would have had a fair indication anyway.

 

[QuietB]

Maybe because he didn't want to leave, we didn't want him to leave, and no other club wanted him to leave.

Apart from that, I can't think of any reason...

Overlooking the fact he never plays Wingard is easily the best of the JOM-TMitch-Wingard three.

 

[Brishawk]

My take on it is mate that Essendon aren't going to hand 22 to a rival simply for points and to maintain a late presence in a weak draft.

If we were to offer as you have suggested, I'd expect they would just use pick 22 on Davey.

They'll without doubt be shopping 22 on draft night, and depending who is left on the board there could be multiple suitors.

I just can't see a scenario, looking at it fron Essendon's view also, where we could keep both of next year's seconds and get 22.

Interesting that Mark McKenzie said we might look at using one of our seconds to get into this year's draft. Ideally I'd hope we could do better than 22.

Agreed, they will likely get a better deal than a bunch of late picks. We also need to be mindful that we will take four picks in this draft. is 3 inside 24 plus one at the back is better than two inside the top 24 and one about 37 and another early 40s? Probably is in this shallow drsft

Regarding Essendon, I wonder if they would consider a pick slide to 6 as part of a deal for 24. They could potentially match with 22 and then use 24 while we land a top 5 player, which could be wardlaw if he slides past north.

 

[Alite]

Was a joke Coach Killer was bragging about taking a dump and then prophesising TOM and JOM were staying. Thanks for sucking the fun out!

sorry

 

[Billyc]

Tom and Jom leaving isn't such a biggie for me, it's just the clusterf**K of nothing picks we've accumulated!! Maybe 41 isn't so bad as it may turn to 35 but it is a shallow draft so therefore, we're bit unlucky all the stars lined up, but in a criss-cross way!! Now, can we do something with 24&41 ? The top 12-15 draftees are quite good gets but then a drop off.

Yes, there is a lot of mental gymnastics involved in trying to justify the Mitchell trade as a good one. I didn't see anyone suggesting that was fair value before the trade went through and saw many now praising the deal scoffing at the (correct) media suggestions of third rounders being in play, with us paying salary. I supported trading Mitchell for a fair deal, but that's a bad deal, especially if we are paying substantial salary. I don't see much point in paying him to play elsewhere in exchange for junk picks.

The O'Meara one is ok, once you take out the opportunity cost of what the Giants were willing to offer. Unfortunately JOM screwed us there after Freo's late pitch. In isolation that trade sits comfortably. A 4 year deal for JOM is silly.

Gunston deal is what it is. We had no leverage. The failure there was failing to convince him to stay.

Otherwise we failed to leverage salary space to improve the draft at all, whether through the Bowes trade, another salary dump or by moving our players on and paying salary in exchange for good deals. For the second year in a row I agree with the strategy and what we set out to achieve, but the execution was poor. The aim was to finish with a strong draft hand. We didn't. We have a draft hand comparable to the premier who gave up no senior players.

Unfortunately there is an industry perception that Mckenzie is a soft negotiator who folds. This period has not dispelled that perception. Some clubs held strong and negotiated good deals, he didn't (again). I think McKenzie is a good talent spotter in the draft but a poor negotiator. That needs to be looked at.

 

[FB19]

sorry

I forgot dumps are no laughing matter!

 

[Flamin Joe]

Imagine being Karl Amon today haha

On good coin playing football for a successful club back in his home state and closer to family?

Yeah he must be pissed.

 

[Alite]

Was a joke Coach Killer was bragging about taking a dump and then prophesising TOM and JOM were staying. Thanks for sucking the fun out!

Sorry, I missed the joke… was it funny?

 

[Judd2Sewell]

I've got no issue with us trading Mitchell and JOM, my issue is with the return we received for them.

If we are able to trade up in this draft then it will be a huge positive.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I wonder what stage of grief we are at as a supporter base? Maybe we’re still in the denial stage, but not in that we’ve lost Tom and JOM but with the realization that they were probably never worth what we thought they were worth when we wanted late 1st rounders, which in itself is ironic because so many of us spent the best part of 3 years being frustrated by the fact that our midfield should perform a lot better than it ever has with those two leading it.

Fact is we lost two depreciating assets and brought in two much younger appreciating assets, while not losing our 1st or 2nd round pick, which is good business in most cases.

I can understand those who think we should’ve more easily grabbed another first rounder from somewhere but there simply wasn’t any to be had with what we had to offer.

Meek and Stephens have it all before them, get behind them.

 

[FB19]

Sorry, I missed the joke… was it funny?

It was for the intended audience.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Didn’t you say TOM and JOM were not going anywhere? Not sure your dumps match the cats…

I’m not sure his intestines can genuinely predict trade movement.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Yea Nah. We’re good with clearing the list cloggers and bringing in 2 gun mids and a ripper ruck whilst adding to our draft hand this year and next year.

Name the 2 gun mids we brought in.

Amon is good but he was a FA.

Agree we had to move Mitchell and JOM on at some point but we pretty much gave them away.

Meek was Freo’s 3rd choice ruck.

 

[2008wasoverDEW!]

We need to calm the farm and understand that we just cleared the league's worst midfield duo of the last 6 years. As a combo Jaeger & Tom never worked, we must accept that & move on. Yes it sucks that we weren't able to get earlier picks for them, but the reality is that their value is low as they aren't top-line midfielders. Holding onto either of them may have helped make us competitive, but they weren't going to improve us as a team moving forward.

At least Sam Mitchell has a clear direction he is taking us in, & it's a much more appealing path than the "top up with B & C graders" strategy that Clarko was running with to avoid bottoming out. This is the genuine reset we needed.