Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[BloodySwan]

I think Hawks list is better than they are performing. If Mitchell wasn't a club champion there would be a great focus on him

 

[My Tilly]

This. What Geelong have done to defy gravity is outstanding, but let’s stop pretending they’ve managed to purely draft their way out of their decline.

No doubt but we also make our own luck.
Kelly and Clark net us Conway and Cameron while Stephens brings in Henry. It's strategic recruitment with a little bit of 'go home factor' help along the way.

 

[RUNVS]

Been said before but Hawthorn's big mistake was misjudging where their list was and going after O'Meara and Mitchell to try and extend their premiership window.

They would have had picks 10 and 14 in the 2016 draft (assuming they still traded with St Kilda) and that would have given them access to any two of Florent, Simpkin, Berry, Powell-Pepper, Hayward or English.

Two of those players would have definitely helped.

 

[peetoo]

Been said before but Hawthorn's big mistake was misjudging where their list was and going after O'Meara and Mitchell to try and extend their premiership window.

They would have had picks 10 and 14 in the 2016 draft (assuming they still traded with St Kilda) and that would have given them access to any two of Florent, Simpkin, Berry, Powell-Pepper, Hayward or English.

Two of those players would have definitely helped.

They wouldn’t have traded with st kilda. Probably would have got a midfielder. Most pressing need.

However creative trading got Weddle, so who knows?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Hey Hawthorn, take a seat

View attachment 1973797

Harsh on WCE. They are off the couch for now.

 

[RUNVS]

They wouldn’t have traded with st kilda. Probably would have got a midfielder

Another benefit to not getting Mitchell and O'Meara though is that Hawthorn would not have done as well in 2017, 2018 and 2019, which on the surface makes no sense, but that would have meant Hawthorn as a club would have accepted their rebuild earlier, and begun earlier. It would also mean better draft picks to actually rebuild with in those years.

 

[peetoo]

Harsh on WCE. They are off the couch for now.

Adelaide North Hawks Eagles.

Only one of those teams deliberately tanked. Change the title

 

[RUNVS]

Adelaide North Hawks Eagles.

Only one of those teams deliberately tanked. Change the title

I think there is an interesting discussion to be had for the bottom 4 right now, when each of them realised a rebuild was necessary and how all 4 have gone about it in different ways.

 

[Crankyhawk]

This is pretty accurate. Other than North, every team we've played is in the 8 (3 in the top 4) or just outside (Pies and Suns). I can see us getting a string of wins when we play sides around us.

So Richmond and WCE only then (and that’s Richmond with injury list)

 

[peetoo]

Another benefit to not getting Mitchell and O'Meara though is that Hawthorn would not have done as well in 2017, 2018 and 2019, which on the surface makes no sense, but that would have meant Hawthorn as a club would have accepted their rebuild earlier, and begun earlier. It would also mean better draft picks to actually rebuild with in those years.

Certainly. In 2017 Burgoyne 34 hodge 32 smith 28 Shiels 25 Langford 24 hartung 22 orourke 23 Howe 21

Just 3 aged 24-29

Fruits of the threepeat also having damn good specialist small forwards, but they weren’t gun midfielders in the making e.g. Heeney

 

[RUNVS]

Certainly. In 2017 Burgoyne 34 hodge 32 smith 28 Shiels 25 Langford 24 hartung 22 orourke 23 Howe 21

Just 3 aged 24-29

I suspect Clarkson thought "bring in Mitchell and O'Meara for Burgoyne and Smith and everything will continue as normal" but the problem with that is it was forgetting the other aging stars in the Hawthorn team, and how you were about to lose some important Key Position players too.

Losing Roughead would have been quite a loss as he was a very underrated player by non-Hawks fans.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Opposition have worked him out, thats all.

Took them all of 2022 & 2023 for them to work him out….

Or, maybe he’s just down on form because Blanck’s ACL means he can’t get off his man and impact other contests.

 

[nelk boys]

Been said before but Hawthorn's big mistake was misjudging where their list was and going after O'Meara and Mitchell to try and extend their premiership window.

They would have had picks 10 and 14 in the 2016 draft (assuming they still traded with St Kilda) and that would have given them access to any two of Florent, Simpkin, Berry, Powell-Pepper, Hayward or English.

Two of those players would have definitely helped.

Why are we still talking about this? None of those mentioned players are going to move the needle.

Discussion should be on how we improve now.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Been said before but Hawthorn's big mistake was misjudging where their list was and going after O'Meara and Mitchell to try and extend their premiership window.

They would have had picks 10 and 14 in the 2016 draft (assuming they still traded with St Kilda) and that would have given them access to any two of Florent, Simpkin, Berry, Powell-Pepper, Hayward or English.

Two of those players would have definitely helped.

It was a big mistake in hindsight.

I wonder how things may have changed had Coniglio not got that "ambassador" money thrown at him in the 11th hour.

Regardless, Clarko had earned the right to make that kind of call. I know others at the club wanted to start the rebuild (take it to the bank), and this disagreement with the course direction of the club caused some friction between the coach and GW. At the end of the day it was Clarko's decision and he deserved a chance to make it work. It didn't, obviously, and now Mitchell is cleaning up the mess.

 

[RUNVS]

Why are we still talking about this? None of those mentioned players are going to move the needle.

Discussion should be on how we improve now.

They would have moved the needle as having another 2 experienced players in the Hawthorn team would be quite useful right now. Wouldn't make Hawthorn a top 8 side or anything, but would make them more competitive.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Opposition have worked him out, thats all.

Put a player on him to niggle and take his mind off the game and he reacts accordingly.

Sisily is getting beaten between the ears and that has affected his output. Not a great weakness to have being captain. The midfield getting smashed doesnt help either.

Everyone has known this weakness for years, no one has just worked him out this season.

He looks unmotivated and looks like he's hating life out there on the field. He shouldn't be asked to play as an undersized KPD in a terrible side, we are wasting his talents. I imagine he feels the same way.

 

[Red Bull]

Another benefit to not getting Mitchell and O'Meara though is that Hawthorn would not have done as well in 2017, 2018 and 2019, which on the surface makes no sense, but that would have meant Hawthorn as a club would have accepted their rebuild earlier, and begun earlier. It would also mean better draft picks to actually rebuild with in those years.

Clarkson was drowning in his own bath water at that stage and many of the faithful actually believed “because hawthorn” was a real thing.
An out of control Kennett at the helm was the icing on the cake.
And here we are now …

 

[peetoo]

I suspect Clarkson thought "bring in Mitchell and O'Meara for Burgoyne and Smith and everything will continue as normal" but the problem with that is it was forgetting the other aging stars in the Hawthorn team, and how you were about to lose some important Key Position players too.

Losing Roughead would have been quite a loss as he was a very underrated player by non-Hawks fans.

Cyril retiring early. Gillan sabotaging the coniglio move.

Vickery, Patton, Hartley opportunity cost though. Granted draftees were already 4th round but a gem may have been found

 

[nelk boys]

They would have moved the needle as having another 2 experienced players in the Hawthorn team would be quite useful right now. Wouldn't make Hawthorn a top 8 side or anything, but would make them more competitive.

Realistically we should have rebuilt after 2016. Targeted the 16, 17, 18, 19 drafts. 2018 in particular.

We just need better ball use and key position players. We beat you in inside 50s and in the contest yesterday. Just need more polish and options inside 50.

 

[Daka]

I think that says a lot more about the respective quality of the Hawthorn and Melbourne sides and less so on Sicily and Lever.

I mean seriously that is a bizarre take.

You don't have to agree with it, Melbourne as a team play awful sometimes & May, Lever & Gawn seem to always carry them.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

You don't have to agree with it, Melbourne as a team play awful sometimes & May, Lever & Gawn seem to always carry them.

If Sicily played in a better team that had legitimate KPD's, and a proper defensive structure, he would be incredible. Hell, he's been incredible at times even without those luxuries.

 

[SSSSSS]

You don't have to agree with it, Melbourne as a team play awful sometimes & May, Lever & Gawn seem to always carry them.

If only Sicily had the greatest ruckman of the 21st century, a 4x All Australian inside/outside midfielder in Petracca and 2x All Australian Fullback in his side.

I would think we would start to win a lot more games if we had those.

 

[Philhawk]

No doubt but we also make our own luck.
Kelly and Clark net us Conway and Cameron while Stephens brings in Henry. It's strategic recruitment with a little bit of 'go home factor' help along the way.

All true. But it all looks great until it doesn’t. I’ve been on this board long enough to remember in 2016, everyone lauded at how Hawthorn were able to “rebuild on the run”.

If you look at the weekend as a simple baseline, 5 of the top 8 performers were over 31. That’s nothing to scoff at, keeping quality older players is crucial during a rebuild and to be honest, it’s why we have fallen off so fast.

But it’s still pertinent. Father time eventually comes for us all.

 

[RUNVS]

Realistically we should have rebuilt after 2016. Targeted the 16, 17, 18, 19 drafts. 2018 in particular.

We just need better ball use and key position players. We beat you in inside 50s and in the contest yesterday. Just need more polish and options inside 50.

Well to be fair everyone beats the Swans at clearances and inside 50's. It is just an area we suck at

 

[smish]

Cyril retiring early. Gillan sabotaging the coniglio move.

Vickery, Patton, Hartley opportunity cost though. Granted draftees were already 4th round but a gem may have been found

Imagine we didn’t find Sicily, Moore, Worpel, Lewis, Morrison, Hardwick with later picks. Disaster. Plus Newcombe a couple years ago and we got lucky getting Scrimshaw for next to nothing.