Hypothetical Draft Pick Trade Thread

[FuzwaldQO]

Following on from my other post here, I've now thought of some trades we could do to strengthen our hand aside from just trading with the Lions.

Right at the start of the draft
So to start from the previous post, we can't trade 48 to the Lions as they traded it to us. So to fix that we give the Blues a free one pick upgrade:
Hawks give 48
Blues give 49
Then we trade with the Lions to get higher picks and give them more points (I believe they will trade 34 to North for 40 and 43, hence 36 and 38):
Hawks give 41, 49, 50, 52
Lions give 36, 38

I honestly believe that those trades above will happen. Either first up on the night or as soon as a bid for Ashcroft comes. At this point, we would have the following picks: 6, 24, 36, 38, 65.

Which once the bid for Ashcroft is paid by for by the Lions become:
6, 24, 35, 37, 62.

Now trades will become situational dependent.

Trading pick 6
I'll start off with the disclaimer right at the top...
I do not believe that the Hawks will trade up from pick 6. To do so would cost either our future 1st, or both our future seconds, or 24, or a combination of any of them. And in a rebuild, I don't think we can give those picks away for minimal return. Even if we traded up to pick 3 (we aren't going to get 1 or 2), that only guarantees us Tsatas. Who we could get at 6 anyway if he slides which some experts think he might. If we were to trade up, I would want Sheezel. And by all accounts North will take him with their first pick. So we would waste all our resources trying to get someone that we can't get anyway in Sheezel, or someone that we have a good shot at getting anyway in Tsatas. It's not worth it. And the return vs expenditure gets worse as you come down to 4 and 5. So no. I don't think we will trade up.

However I do believe there is a good chance that we might slide back to either 9 from the Saints, or 10 from the Blues. It will all depend on who is available when it comes to our pick. Eg. If Tsatas is still on the board, I believe that we would just take him. But the main thing will be if there are enough players that we want to get with our pick that we can still get one of them at pick 9 or 10. Eg. If it comes to our pick and Clark, MacKenzie, Humphrey, and Phillipou are still on the board and we don't mind which of them we get... then a slide to pick 9 makes sense. We still get a player that we want, and we get extra draft resources along with it. Also we can obviously only do one or the other, trade with the Saints or the Blues. Anyway, enough explaining... onto the trades!

Saints trade:
Hawks give pick 6, future 4th (Lions)
Saints give pick 9, future 1st
They don't have a future 4th round pick, so we would have to trade our future 4th for them to be able to trade their 1st. But it's probably overs from them, and I really doubt they would do it. That would be my starting point of negotiation though. More realistically, the trade would get negotiated to something like:
Hawks give pick 6, future 4th (Lions)
Saints give pick 9, 32, future 2nd
Which I would still be happy with.
or
Blues trade:
Hawks give pick 6, future 3rd
Blues give pick 10, future 1st, future 4th (Ess).
Again, the Blues need us to trade our 3rd to them for them to be able to trade their 1st. But I think that's too much their way, so I have their future 4th tied to Bombers coming back our way. Pick 10 is pushing the range of acceptable slides from pick 6 and still getting who we want. Hence why I am putting more value into the trade from their end (wanting their first).
I wouldn't do it for their 2nd this year (28) and future 2nd. Well maybe I would. But I think it would have to be a better deal. We wouldn't have to give our future third either. Hmmm.
Hawks give pick 6, future 4th (Lions)
Blues give pick 10, 28, future 2nd, future 4th (Ess)
I might do that.

Hypothetical's
Further into the draft, we could look at a trade with the Bombers for 22, when there is a bid for Alwyn Davey

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

Jnr. From what I have heard though, they don't want to trade down for later picks. They either want to trade up, or trade for a future pick. So I think if we wanted to try to get 22, we would be looking at something like:

Hawks give future 2nd (Dogs)
Bombers give pick 22
Then there would be posturing with other picks I guess. Honestly though, I don't like it and would rather do the next trade.

GWS have a stack of 1sts and the first 2nd... they wouldn't miss one, right?
The easiest one to get obviously would be 19. The only way to get it is to offer at least one future 2nd. That's what they want. They don't want more lower picks this year, they want to move their collateral into next year. Id say something like:

Hawks give future 2nd (dogs hopefully, but likely ours)
GWS give pick 19
Posturing ensues from us, even more if we convince them to take the Dogs 2nd.

Or if there were more players this year we wanted to target, we could look at a bigger trade:

Hawks give future 2nd (Hawks), future 2nd (Dogs)
GWS give pick 19, pick 31
Which is actually not that far from even.

Or lastly, if we wanted to aim higher we could try for pick 15:

Hawks give future 2nd (Hawks), future 2nd (Dogs)
GWS give pick 15
Which again, I don't think is far off the mark.

Final thoughts
The last thing I will say is that unless we get a really good deal... I wouldn't like to see us losing the two future 2nds that we have. Basically because, the Suns have a LOT of highly rated academy players next year that they need points for. And GWS also have a lot of high picks for next year. Among other teams as well. So I think there is a good chance that those two future 2nds could be turned into a 1st round pick next year. And I really like the thought of having two 1st round picks then picking up McCabe.

Apologies for the very long post! Hope you made it through!

 

[FuzwaldQO]

For this years draft I want either Tsatas, Humphrey or trade back in this years draft and improve next years hand.
I think Tsatas goes to bombers and Humphrey to suns.

Saints rumoured to want Mackenzie: I think hawks would take him at 6, reason for the trade
Hawks:6, 41, future 2nd (dogs)
Saints:9, 32, future 1st

Hawks: 48, 50, 52
Lions: 34

2022 Draft : 9, 24, 32, 34, 65
2023 Draft: first rounder (ours and saints), 2nd rounder (ours), 3rd rounder (ours) and 4th rounder (lions)

9. Hollands/Phillipou
24. Brayden George (please slide to us)
32. Isaac Keeler
34. Adam D'Aloia

i like your thinking, but there's two things wrong.

Saint's can't trade their future 1st without getting a future 4th because they don't have one. We would have to include our future 4th (Lions) to get it done. But I like upgrading the Dogs future 2nd to the Saints future 1st!
Also we can't trade 48 to the Lions because they traded it to us. So the Lions trade needs work.

Edit:
Now I’ve had a chance to think about it… melding the two issues of Since 2001’s post, I think they can still work. Basically swapping the picks in the 40’s over, adding the future 3rd from the Lions because of the higher pick and adding the future 4th to get the Saints done. The main problem will be that the Lions will want to do their trade well before the Saints trade comes about. So we would have to execute the Lions trade with the Saints trade in mind, even if it doesn’t happen.

Hawks give 41, 50, 52
Lions give 34, F3rd (Demons)

Hawks give 6, 48, F2nd (Dogs), F4th (Lions)
Saints give 9, 32, F1st (Saints)

I think that works out pretty well. Whether all the teams would agree… who knows lol.

 

[Alite]

Cats have 7, 58, 64, and only have their future 1st. They have no other future picks. And because they have no other future picks, they can't trade their 1st. The only way for there to be a trade with the Cats would be:

They trade pick 7 and their future 1st, for the future 2nd we have that's tied to the Dogs, along with our future 3rd, and the future 4th tied to the Lions (so they have a F2, F3, and F4). That's actually making my head hurt trying to work out who win's that trade. We would be giving up a future 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, for a future 1st at the end of the 1st round. Not a great deal. Unless they throw in their crappy picks after pick 7 this year as well.

We would slide a spot in the 1st round this year, and give a future middle 2nd round, early 3rd round, and late 4th round.
We would gain 58, 64, and a late future 1st.

And that is still a crap deal. I think a Hawks trade with the Saints or the Blues are much more likely.

I think the Swans trade is unlikely. There's a fair drop in talent from where our 1st pick is now vs 14. Pick 9 I can see working, 10 would be pushing it. 14 is too far for me. Dons want to either trade up with 22, or move it to next year. I can't see them trading 22 for a bunch of lower picks. Rules state that we can't trade 48 to the Lions, as they traded it to us. I like your thinking, but there's a fair bit that won't work in those trades.

Consider? Sure. Do it? Unlikely. I'd want a better deal than that. As much as the thought of 2x 1sts next year appeals, it also means 22 would be our starting pick this year. Ouch. No 1st round pick when we are in the process of a rebuild? No thanks. And it means that Essendon have picks 4 and 6 in this draft which speeds their rebuild and slows ours. Hell no lol.

I can't see Sydney giving us three 1sts for pick 6. Carlton might do the 2nd trade though. But that doesn't help if Sydney don't do the first lol.
Sydney might do their future 1st if we gave the Dogs future 2nd back? Try and get their future 3rd as well to help with McCabe points. Dunno. It all seems a bit convoluted to me. I'm just not seeing why the Swans would give up that much for pick 6. If the Blues would do that deal, why not talk to the Swans direct and do a trade with them. I can't see us being involved.

Agreed, there is no obvious way the Hawks give pick 6(7) to the Cats.

 

[FB19]

Agreed, there is no obvious way the Hawks give pick 6(7) to the Cats.

Not unless we throw in a player as well to make the deal more balanced…

 

[FB19]

I don't think it's particularly odd. A similar thing happened the other year when we took Bramble late, we'll probably have a couple of people train with us in the pre-season if we can't get what we want through the draft.

We have 8 spots with 1 committed to Seamus as a cat A rookie. A lot depends on 2 key things
1. Live trading
2. Our assessment of vickery and lawrence
We usually would hold an open spot for SSP so that would leave 4 if taking both. In that scenario and assuming my out of the box idea to trade our 2 x f2 picks to suns for pick 5 and many of their late 2023 picks so they don’t need so many open list spots. would like those 4 picks to be something like 6,22,24,35 with 62,65 for vickery. Live trading to achieve it:
Lions give 35,36 for 41,48,50,52
Dons give 22,62 for f2 dogs and 36
Based on what I’ve read tsatas weddle jones are 3 we are interested in around those picks then for me lemmey worth a punt but would be happy with several players at that pick.

 

[hawkinoz]

We have 8 spots with 1 committed to Seamus as a cat A rookie. A lot depends on 2 key things
1. Live trading
2. Our assessment of vickery and lawrence
We usually would hold an open spot for SSP so that would leave 4 if taking both. In that scenario and assuming my out of the box idea to trade our 2 x f2 picks to suns for pick 5 and many of their late 2023 picks so they don’t need so many open list spots. would like those 4 picks to be something like 6,22,24,35 with 62,65 for vickery. Live trading to achieve it:
Lions give 35,36 for 41,48,50,52
Dons give 22,62 for f2 dogs and 36
Based on what I’ve read tsatas weddle jones are 3 we are interested in around those picks then for me lemmey worth a punt but would be happy with several players at that pick.

Lions lose points in this deal, so not gonna happen. Better to target 36 & 38. Also we can't trade 48 back to Lions as we got it from them. hence my earlier point of trading 48 to GWS for 57 & 61 & use one of them in lions trade.
As 1st step trade for 36,73(511pts) <-> 50, 52, 65 (609pts)

Will give us
6, 24, 36, 41, 48, 73

then swap 48 for 57 & 61 and bundle 41 +61(547 pts) for 38( 465 pts)
6, 24, 36, 38, 57, 73

this pick 38 will end up as pick 40 after 4 FS bids & 34 & 35 getting used up. Can be used in exchange for Dons 22.

When Davey is bid on, trade 22 for our F2(WB) & pick 57 with dons giving us 68 ( these picks would have moved up 4-5 spots by then). They need the pick 57( likely to be 52 or 53) to ensure they don't go into points deficit.

6, 22, 24, 36, 38, 68, 73.

I am happy to call it a day at this point & look to trade the 68 or 73 for F4's but they may want 38 back.

After Davey trade they can trade for pick 38 by swapping F2 or F3's ( prefer F2's)

 

[FB19]

Lions lose points in this deal, so not gonna happen. Better to target 36 & 38. Also we can't trade 48 back to Lions as we got it from them. hence my earlier point of trading 48 to GWS for 57 & 61 & use one of them in lions trade.
As 1st step trade for 36,73(511pts) <-> 50, 52, 65 (609pts)

Will give us
6, 24, 36, 41, 48, 73

then swap 48 for 57 & 61 and bundle 41 +61(547 pts) for 38( 465 pts)
6, 24, 36, 38, 57, 73

this pick 38 will end up as pick 40 after 4 FS bids & 34 & 35 getting used up. Can be used in exchange for Dons 22.

When Davey is bid on, trade 22 for our F2(WB) & pick 57 with dons giving us 68 ( these picks would have moved up 4-5 spots by then). They need the pick 57( likely to be 52 or 53) to ensure they don't go into points deficit.

6, 22, 24, 36, 38, 68, 73.

I am happy to call it a day at this point & look to trade the 68 or 73 for F4's but they may want 38 back.

After Davey trade they can trade for pick 38 by swapping F2 or F3's ( prefer F2's)

Your point re pick 48 is valid but even if we swap it with Carlton for 49 it’s 1024 points from lions for 1218 points from us so unsure of how you calculated they lose. Under my scenario we have 6,24,35,36,65 then we do the Davey trade for f2 dogs and 65 which is all dons should need and finish with 6,22,24,35,36 and if needed like you say we could wangle a late pick there are many that clubs won’t use.

 

[FuzwaldQO]

Not unless we throw in a player as well to make the deal more balanced…

Player trading has ended for this year. Can only trade picks now.


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[hawkinoz]

I got my calculation wrong there and yes, if we can swap with blues for 49, that would be good as well. Loss of only 15 points & would prefer that to get 35 & 36.

Would be happy to finish with 6,22,24,35,36 which after 3 FS trades should be
7,25,27,37,38( after Davey+Fletcher bid around 20).
After Adelaide FS bid the 30's pick move one step down.

We should be gunning for GWS pick 18 or 19 & 31 as well. In that case we can ignore dons pick.

 

[FB19]

I got my calculation wrong there and yes, if we can swap with blues for 49, that would be good as well. Loss of only 15 points & would prefer that to get 35 & 36.

Would be happy to finish with 6,22,24,35,36 which after 3 FS trades should be
7,25,27,37,38( after Davey+Fletcher bid around 20).
After Adelaide FS bid the 30's pick move one step down.

I think we are aligned good work. Now go wake up Mark and let him know!

 

[Braidz]

Player trading has ended for this year. Can only trade picks now.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

That clearly went straight over your head

 

[Scrads]

Dogs F2 + 41 + 48 for Don's 22 + 54

50 + 52 + 54 + 65 (829 points) for Lions 36 (502 points). (Just pips North's 40 + 43 (807 points) in case they are keen too).

6, 22, 24, 36

Only issue is we'd need to do both deals simultaneously when Ashcroft gets a bid but Don's might want to wait and see on where it happens for Davey first.

 

[FB19]

Dogs F2 + 41 + 48 for Don's 22 + 54

50 + 52 + 54 + 65 (829 points) for Lions 36 (502 points). (Just pips North's 40 + 43 (807 points) in case they are keen too).

6, 22, 24, 36

Only issue is we'd need to do both deals simultaneously when Ashcroft gets a bid but Don's might want to wait and see on where it happens for Davey first.

I am becoming more inclined to want to keep our f2 from dogs. We can get 35,36 from lions for 41,49,50,52 (swap 48 for 49 from blues to avoid issue with giving lions their own pick back). Take 6,24,35,36,65 to the draft this year. If dons want to move 22 live trade we have leverage to do a better deal. I’d be more inclined to offer 35,65 and f3 which gives them most of the Davey points a late pick for Davey 2 and more next year. Would be happy with 6,22,24,36 this year adding vickery or Lawrence or both as rookies with a newk upgrade to primary list, rookie seamus and leave a spot or 2 for SSP train on and MSD.

 

[FuzwaldQO]

That clearly went straight over your head

Yeah I was pretty tired when I saw it. Oh well, win some and lose some!

 

[Jazzfan]

Imo we should consider moving up to 4 with the dons this year. If they want phillipou we could offer

6 + our two future 2nds and some late picks for Davey matching.

For 4 and 22 this year and a future 3.

I don't love moving out of the second round next year but I think locking in tsatas could be worth it.

Who are you moving upto pick 4 (5) for? Tsastas?

Every chance if Bombers pass on Tsastas he slides to us anyway. I think Gold Coast see him as a risk to return home.

Bombers are tossing up between Tsastas and Humphrey.

 

[TylerDurden]

Who are you moving upto pick 4 (5) for? Tsastas?

Every chance if Bombers pass on Tsastas he slides to us anyway. I think Gold Coast see him as a risk to return home.

Bombers are tossing up between Tsastas and Humphrey.

I'm hearing they want Phillipou.

Agree on Tsatas sliding to us.

 

[FB19]

I'm hearing they want Phillipou.

Agree on Tsatas sliding to us.

We shouldn’t be trading up unless it’s to 3 we should be thinking about trading back to blues pick we will still get one of our 5 at that pick especially as blues will trade up for busslinger in front of eagles

 

[BIGHAWK23]

We shouldnt be trading up if Phillipou goes Dons

We get Tsatas

 

[TylerDurden]

We shouldn’t be trading up unless it’s to 3 we should be thinking about trading back to blues pick we will still get one of our 5 at that pick especially as blues will trade up for busslinger in front of eagles

I'm not trading that pick at all.

Sit on pick 6 and take Tsatas. No need to complicate things.

 

[Books]

Following on from my other post here, I've now thought of some trades we could do to strengthen our hand aside from just trading with the Lions.

Right at the start of the draft
So to start from the previous post, we can't trade 48 to the Lions as they traded it to us. So to fix that we give the Blues a free one pick upgrade:
Hawks give 48
Blues give 49
Then we trade with the Lions to get higher picks and give them more points (I believe they will trade 34 to North for 40 and 43, hence 36 and 38):
Hawks give 41, 49, 50, 52
Lions give 36, 38

I honestly believe that those trades above will happen. Either first up on the night or as soon as a bid for Ashcroft comes. At this point, we would have the following picks: 6, 24, 36, 38, 65.

This was as far as I read, because I do not think this can happen.

The AFL should not allow 48 for 49 as a straight swap. Carlton would need to give us an F5 or something nominal just to make it look fair.

We cannot give the Lions extra picks before the Ashcroft bid, as they can only have as many picks as they have list spots.
After the Ashcroft bid, 36 and 38 will be gone.
So your suggestion is impossible.

The trade we might do after the bid for Ashcroft, is two of our 3rd rounders for two of their F3's.
They get points for Fletcher. We get a stronger hand next year, with points for McCabe.

 

[FB19]

This was as far as I read, because I do not think this can happen.

The AFL should not allow 48 for 49 as a straight swap. Carlton would need to give us an F5 or something nominal just to make it look fair.

We cannot give the Lions extra picks before the Ashcroft bid, as they can only have as many picks as they have list spots.
After the Ashcroft bid, 36 and 38 will be gone.
So your suggestion is impossible.

The trade we might do after the bid for Ashcroft, is two of our 3rd rounders for two of their F3's.
They get points for Fletcher. We get a stronger hand next year, with points for McCabe.

He’s just quoting various posts from myself and hawkinoz in several threads (probably other people too).
My understanding of the rules is different for 2 reasons:
1. the list spots to picks only applies until the draft begins then it’s open slather
2. Lions don’t logically lose any picks until they officially decide to match a bid.
I did read somewhere their first pick maybe unable to be traded should they decide to match, but like a lot with the clandestine make it up as you go along AFL, I find it incredibly difficult to find clarity on these rules. That said there’s also a lot of talk about dons trading 22 if a bid comes so maybe that’s wrong not even sure the afl know. So All these trades are possible.
Also sorry but the 48/49 take doesn’t make any sense. it’s clear why it’s happening and it’s a much lower points disparity than all other trades. Your belief post the bowes trade that the afl can even spell governance is misplaced at best

 

[Steven Tyler]

We shouldn’t be trading up unless it’s to 3 we should be thinking about trading back to blues pick we will still get one of our 5 at that pick especially as blues will trade up for busslinger in front of eagles

You’d want to be 100% certain of the Blues plans before trading down, and there is a huge chance they change their mind when getting a higher pick from us

Not sure we would like to get option 5 when we trade down, when we could get option 1 by keeping our pick

 

[mac11]

Also sorry but the 48/49 take doesn’t make any sense. it’s clear why it’s happening and it’s a much lower points disparity than all other trades.

Disagree. AFL would not allow this. It may only be a small points difference between 48 & 49 but it is a difference nonetheless. This is an unequal trade whichever way you look at it.

There would have to be a later pick from this year’s draft included with the 49, or a pick/pick swap from next year’s draft.

 

[David C]

This was as far as I read, because I do not think this can happen.

The AFL should not allow 48 for 49 as a straight swap. Carlton would need to give us an F5 or something nominal just to make it look fair.

We cannot give the Lions extra picks before the Ashcroft bid, as they can only have as many picks as they have list spots.
After the Ashcroft bid, 36 and 38 will be gone.
So your suggestion is impossible.

The trade we might do after the bid for Ashcroft, is two of our 3rd rounders for two of their F3's.
They get points for Fletcher. We get a stronger hand next year, with points for McCabe.

I think you will find Brissy can only take as many picks as they have list spots to the draft as you stated. But after the draft starts they can trade for additional picks and keep them all. I fully expect a trade between Hawthorn and Brisbane to occur early on trade night. They also have 3 future 3rd's, they can trade 2 of them back into this draft for more points.

edit - draft night, not trade night.

 

[FB19]

Disagree. AFL would not allow this. It may only be a small points difference between 48 & 49 but it is a difference nonetheless. This is an unequal trade whichever way you look at it.

There would have to be a later pick from this year’s draft included with the 49, or a pick/pick swap from next year’s draft.

Every single trade is unequal in points, that’s the point (pardon the pun). So why is a trade where Carlton benefit by 15 points (hence a reason for Carlton to do it) not allowed but us trading with lions for them to gain 200 points is perfectly fine? If the AFL did this it would be the single funniest thing I have ever seen but they make things up as they go along so maybe, will make for an interesting draft night.