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Speculation Jack Lukosius [RFA 2026]
- Thread starter MisterMarcus
- Start date
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- Oct 2, 2022
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Understandable if it was an Oliver level contract - but a couple of years at $750k?
Honestly, there's something suss about the relationship between GCS and Geelong ...
Maybe, I've probably followed his career closer than you though, definitely for longer.
Would be good to counter the argument if there was one as to his value being higher than a second.
- Dec 3, 2013
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Because if i had a second round pick, i would hope in 4 or 5 years, they turned out to be the servicable high half forward (or imo a good rebounding half back), but they could be a bust.. so for GC who have him contracted for 2 more years to trade him, there's no upside other than getting rid of 2 years of salary cap pain. Jack wants to stay so it's all risk, no reward for GC.
If Jack wants to stay there will be no deal, regardless of what is on offer.
It's true that a second round from an Adelaide team is not worth much to GC, who have a congo line of first round picks for years apparently, regardless of where you finish.
It's a strange one, but players are often worth more to stay given the investment made than to cut loose for not much.
It's debatably a sunk cost fallacy.
If I was GC I wouldn't trade him unless it was a cap issue.
- Dec 3, 2013
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I believe Jack would leave if a club offered a long term deal on good money but not for a pay cut, why would he, right? I genuinely believe he wants to stay with Rowell, Anderson, King and Ballard so after testing waters he'll find himself in a humbling position, if he doesnt smooth out his contract this off season we may end up doing this all over again next year
Some predictions needed here. Common, Crows fans.
Luko prefers to stay with his buddies. Suns pushing him out. Luko hanging on the doors.
Luko leaves.
Luko ends up with Port/Crows.
It's not salary dump.
Luko is not in Suns future plans due to influx of academy talls and not fitting into Dimma's system. Walter, Read, King, Andrew are future as forwards.
Suns will get late 1st round (possibly F1) with something coming back. Concession are gone, Suns will not let him go cheap as Suns already mentioned and Collingwood found out (if you believe media).
It does remind me a bit Chol situation last year. Chol was under contract and Suns told him they are happy if he wants to look around. Suns insisted on 2nd round and got it in the end (sent back 3rd round). BTW, Chol is much worse player, IMO.
Or Luko stays, works his butt off in the off-season and fights for his spot. He leaves in 2025.
Luko prefers to stay with his buddies. Suns pushing him out. Luko hanging on the doors.
Luko leaves.
Luko ends up with Port/Crows.
It's not salary dump.
Luko is not in Suns future plans due to influx of academy talls and not fitting into Dimma's system. Walter, Read, King, Andrew are future as forwards.
Suns will get late 1st round (possibly F1) with something coming back. Concession are gone, Suns will not let him go cheap as Suns already mentioned and Collingwood found out (if you believe media).
It does remind me a bit Chol situation last year. Chol was under contract and Suns told him they are happy if he wants to look around. Suns insisted on 2nd round and got it in the end (sent back 3rd round). BTW, Chol is much worse player, IMO.
Or Luko stays, works his butt off in the off-season and fights for his spot. He leaves in 2025.
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It's an exceptional record of "being slightly less shit at finals, than Port"
Hang that on the mantle place
- Sep 26, 2004
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We're not turning this thread into a Crows v Power shit fight.
Take it to the Bay, thanks.
Take it to the Bay, thanks.
Iva Bigun
Brownlow Medallist
It’s like a DV relationship, all one way, I’m sure Craig Cameron said thank you after the Bowes deal
- Dec 3, 2013
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Jesus Iva
People are under estimating what the trade value for Lukosius will be
When trade time comes both Port & Crows will be looking to get him into their clubs
The value of the trade will still be a pick inside 15 imo
When trade time comes both Port & Crows will be looking to get him into their clubs
The value of the trade will still be a pick inside 15 imo
Both clubs should walk away if GCS are asking for a pick inside 15 in this draft especially if paying a majority of his $950K for the next 2 years.
To be honest, there's no chance pick 4 is involved in Luko, he's not worth that in any world, which even you would have to admit. He also isn't not worth downgrading pick 4 for either.
I think, a fair price would be him and Rosas would be a future 1st. I think that is about right.
- Dec 3, 2013
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No, absolutely not worth pick 4. Would I split pick 4? No, not if I'm the crows. Personally I don't rate Luko, I think he's soft as butter and undependable. He's probably worth a pick in the low 20s because of his kick and his size and potential. But from GC point of view, unless we desperately need to clear cap space for this upcoming season (which we don't, as Mac's contracted for 2025) then pick 25 isn't really that interesting, I'd rather continue the auditions of King, Luko, Walter, Read, Andrew to work out our best mix and reassess next year.
The reason why he's been shopped around is to see if we can get something exceptional for him, and imo it's bait in a trap for the crows and port.
- Jul 6, 2017
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Imo, something not really being spoken about here is luko's role if he goes back to SA. If its the crows, he is not replacing thilthorpe or Fogarty at FF and CHF and its more of a between the arcs type role. At Port, they are crying out for reliable goalkicking forwards as outside Giorgiades, they are thin on the ground so Luko is very likely a key forward for them and from what i read, it sounds like that is his preferred position. So if the contract is not a problem for both clubs, then the obvious club for him is Port if he wants to be a key forward
- Dec 3, 2013
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Could play 3rd tall, an upgrade on himmelberg but the texan is still playing so not sure, he doesn't have the tank for a wing. But if your pitch has the words back lines in it, you can probably forget about it though.
Port have Giorgiadies like you say, Lord and Marshall probably on the same level as Luko, unless they really like him to replace one of them, you would think they would be looking at some other holes in their list such as medium defenders.
My_Username
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- Jun 23, 2022
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Partly.
More importantly however is that the Suns just have too many tall forwards.
After picking up Walter and Reid last year as academy picks, we're just too tall up front.
If you want to keep the local kids, that basically leaves a choice of King or Luko as being 'surplus', which isn't a tough choice.
I think the club would like Luko to stay for another year or two as those kids develop, but the honest call is that he doesn't have a long term future at the club, his trade value isn't likely to get much better (as he gets older, and superseded in his preferred role), and he's taking up a lot of salary cap for a player we don't intend to keep around long term.
So we let him know all this, and suggested he should check out his options.
I think like a few other deals this one is difficult this year. Not all drafts are equal.
Clubs seem to think it's a strong draft so some are hesitant to give up what they might have given up 12 months ago. For different reasons but both SA clubs would be hesitant to part with a future first round pick as well.
I think he is more likely Crows than Port this year as I think Port want to go to the draft if they get what they want for Houston. 12 months time it could be different.
Our guys are desperate, we'll blow our future first and get a future 3rd coming back.
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