Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Knightmare]

So you've got Dean Towers going to us at Pick 28...

Good sized, mature aged midfielder with speed is what I can pick up. He also has a great name. You haven't written anything about him in your writeup yet - he must be pretty good to go so high in a supposedly deep draft as a mature ager.

Next updates I'll hopefully have all the writeups complete.

You are right with your comments. Has a game not unlike that of Isaac Smith - easy comparison since both have played for North Ballarat at VFL level but has much the same pace and like with Smith if you leave give him room to run he can do some damage.

Some interesting changes.

Dean Towers went from outside the previous 97, to 28 after this update? Paul Marschall and Patrick Wilson both shot up from nowhere to 51 and 53 respectively too. And it's good to see Jacob Ballard finally get a gig in your draft.

Still some things I disagree with, but it's good to see your draft falling in line with mine.

You've got a number of things right in your draft.

Over the past month or so I've caught up on my state league viewing and have a better feel for who will/won't go.

Wilson I've only really had the opportunity to watch some of his games and really up until recently wasn't super familiar with him.

Ballard should have been in my draft all along.

One player I'd be interested to hear your view on: Corey Chalmers. He has been excellent from a young age but only in this past month or so has really found his game. His recent form has really been something with his round 18 - 41 disposal game and his round 23 - 27 disposal, 3 goal game in the reserves.
Do you have any info on what's been happening with his game these past 12 months?
From a distance without having seen any of his recent games it's one I just can't put my finger on.

 

[Neeldy1]

Do you think Nathan Hrovat could slip to Melbourne's third round pick at #45?

 

[Knightmare]

KM great effort, just wondering from the Bulldogs' point of view, do you still think we'd take a ruckman/forward and a key defender first round? They are the only two positions we are actually set for and are desperate for outside midfielders and/or a medium forward.

Even if Grundy is available I'd be surprised if we took him TBH, and although we seem to have a few developing inside mids (noting we'll take Lachie Hunter this draft too) Wines sounds like the type B-Mac loves.

My view with talls is that when you can get a quality tall you take him unless the other talent is significantly better.

At the end of the day I expect a mid to be added with one of those early selections but just for this update I offered a slightly alternative view on how it could work out.

If a top 5 team end up with Jake Stringer...

Wouldn't slip past Carlton at 11/12 surely? If the Saints lose Goddard I would think they would be on him too.

Coming around to Shaw though. The more I see the more I like.

I'm thinking a Kavanagh type slide is entirely possible with Stringer. Quality talent but no certainty he goes top 10 on draft day.

Carlton certainly could be a destination for Stringer and I don't mind him as a fit for their situation.

 

[Knightmare]

love the work km.

i think 2 aspects that are really important to modern footy, and are particularly lacking in some bottom sides such as port adelaide are footskills and pace with the ball.

we all know about the gun kids with these attributes, but ild love to know your top 10ish players in footskills outside your projected 1st round,

and in pace with the ball, i think pace alone isnt worth half as much as those who can use it to get around a player or 2 before kicking or those that continually gain ground, again players outside your projected 1st round.

i just want to get an idea of some of the kids order in these abilities that will be available to any team not just the team with super picks.

Footskills outside the 1st round:
1. Sam Colquhoun
2. Brodie Murdoch
3. Dylan Clarke
4. Jackson Macrae
5. Ben Duscher
6. Shane Nelson
7. Matthew McDonough
8. Leigh Osborne
9. Cameron Banfield
10. Harley Montgomery

Pace outside the 1st round:
1. Shannon Taylor
2. Dean Towers
3. Laine Wilkins
4. Tim Sumner
5. Matthew Haynes
6. Jarrod Stokes
7. Jake Neade
8. Anthony Tipungwuti
9. Leigh Osborne
10. Emmanuel Irra

Do you think Nathan Hrovat could slip to Melbourne's third round pick at #45?

Entirely possible. Quality player but as a less fashionable type (small without only slightly above average pace) he could be available mid draft.

 

[paul scholes]

KM great effort, just wondering from the Bulldogs' point of view, do you still think we'd take a ruckman/forward and a key defender first round? They are the only two positions we are actually set for and are desperate for outside midfielders and/or a medium forward.

Even if Grundy is available I'd be surprised if we took him TBH, and although we seem to have a few developing inside mids (noting we'll take Lachie Hunter this draft too) Wines sounds like the type B-Mac loves.

Agree , can't see us not picking up a class mid with our first pick. Great job done on here by the phantom draft posters.

 

[Keystone agony]

Any footage of the draftees this year?

 

[BomberARMY]

Hey Knightmare, plz forgive me if it's common knowledge but I have a question regarding the FS nominations etc.. How many players can a team nominate to force a team to take a FS early? eg: If GWS or GC choose Viney to force Melb to take him at #3, can they also choose Daniher to force us to use our first pick? Obviously assuming none of Melb, Port, Bris or WB bid for Daniher either.. Just curious if it is at all possible Essendon could get away without using it's first pick on JD. Cheers

 

[Nickos66]

Not going to happen, every team between Melb & Essendon will nominate Daniher.

 

[Banana Boots]

Hey knightmare, sweet job once again, what do you think of jake neade, looks like quite a good player. Do you think he'll go as high as the 80's? What would be brisbane chances of picking him up at pick 49? Cheers

 

[Sin City]

Any footage of the draftees this year?

TradeDraft was good enough to upload this one of Oliver Wines last night

 

[Neeldy1]

do you think jackson coleman could get picked up after missing out last year? if so, where do you think he would go in the draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Any footage of the draftees this year?

I'm sure AFL.com will put some up as they do every year.

Hey Knightmare, plz forgive me if it's common knowledge but I have a question regarding the FS nominations etc.. How many players can a team nominate to force a team to take a FS early? eg: If GWS or GC choose Viney to force Melb to take him at #3, can they also choose Daniher to force us to use our first pick? Obviously assuming none of Melb, Port, Bris or WB bid for Daniher either.. Just curious if it is at all possible Essendon could get away without using it's first pick on JD. Cheers

Essendon won't be able to take Daniher in the 2nd round. He is a consensus top 5 selection and many have him top 3 on quality, so as such a high quality player Essendon will need to use that 1st round selection.

Hey knightmare, sweet job once again, what do you think of jake neade, looks like quite a good player. Do you think he'll go as high as the 80's? What would be brisbane chances of picking him up at pick 49? Cheers

Neade is quality but at 170cm he likely is a later/rookie selection. If keen a 3rd/4th round selection might do it but with the recent success smalls have had maybe clubs become more open to taking a Neade earlier.

do you think jackson coleman could get picked up after missing out last year? if so, where do you think he would go in the draft?

Possible rookie option.

 

[Bert Man]

Knightmare, If Jordan Bourke isn't pre selected where is he bound to be picked up?

 

[manny100]

Thjere is much talk that clubs try to pick up rock stocks through the rookie draft or late spec picks. Looking back to 2005 National draft it appears that any tall talented kids who can ruck and and a bit of KPP get snapped reasonably early.
2005 - pick 9 Clarke, pick 18 Bailey
2006 - pick 4 Leuenberger, pick 14 Sellar
2007 - pick 1 Kreuzer, pick 9 McEvoy
2008 - pick 2 Natanui, pick 9 Vickery, Pick 14 Cordy (F/S)
2009 - ZIP EARLY
2010 - Pick 11 Corringe
2011 - Longer
The above may not all be guns but they sure are snapped up if they have talent and are available.
I note the Lions featured 3 times since 2005 going for talls. I will not be surprised to see them go for Shaw if he is available at their pick as a possible Brown replacement.
Would not be surprised to see GWS really desparate to get Grundy. If they want both Whitfield and Grundy GC will be in a good bargaining position in relation to the mini draft. That is another reason GC will not risk burning their No. 2 pick on Viney before trade week actually kicks off. They will also want Melbournes number 3 pick. Picks 1,2 and 3 in this draft would probably be better than pick 1 plus 3 or 4 scattered picks in the first round in terms of probability of getting high probability long term results.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, If Jordan Bourke isn't pre selected where is he bound to be picked up?

Bourke can either be F/S by Geelong or zoned by Gold Coast.

He'd be more of a mid - late draft option if neither club are interested.

Thjere is much talk that clubs try to pick up rock stocks through the rookie draft or late spec picks. Looking back to 2005 National draft it appears that any tall talented kids who can ruck and and a bit of KPP get snapped reasonably early.
2005 - pick 9 Clarke, pick 18 Bailey
2006 - pick 4 Leuenberger, pick 14 Sellar
2007 - pick 1 Kreuzer, pick 9 McEvoy
2008 - pick 2 Natanui, pick 9 Vickery, Pick 14 Cordy (F/S)
2009 - ZIP EARLY
2010 - Pick 11 Corringe
2011 - Longer
The above may not all be guns but they sure are snapped up if they have talent and are available.
I note the Lions featured 3 times since 2005 going for talls. I will not be surprised to see them go for Shaw if he is available at their pick as a possible Brown replacement.
Would not be surprised to see GWS really desparate to get Grundy. If they want both Whitfield and Grundy GC will be in a good bargaining position in relation to the mini draft. That is another reason GC will not risk burning their No. 2 pick on Viney before trade week actually kicks off. They will also want Melbournes number 3 pick. Picks 1,2 and 3 in this draft would probably be better than pick 1 plus 3 or 4 scattered picks in the first round in terms of probability of getting high probability long term results.

I still consider ruckmen to be a real lottery and looking through many of these outside of Naitanui they are either injury prone, still a long way off or failed.

Of the more recent ruckmen I much prefer Zac Smith who was zoned by Gold Coast, Goldstein as a mid draft selection and Tom Bellchambers through the PSD, Giles who rookied by GWS, Shane Mumford who was rookied by Geelong and Sam Jacobs who was rookied by Carlton over all of these other than Naitanui.

It will be interesting to see where Grundy goes. He's a top 10 selection but where in the top 10 will be interesting.

 

[Nickos66]

Trying not to be pedantic (and failing miserably I might add) but Sam Jacobs was rookied by Carlton was he not?

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Trying not to be pedantic (and failing miserably I might add) but Sam Jacobs was rookied by Carlton was he not?

Correct and Josh Jenkins was rookied by Essendon

Goldstein was a 3rd round pick from memory.

 

[josh the gent]

Correct and Josh Jenkins was rookied by Essendon

Goldstein was a 3rd round pick from memory.

Mumford was a rookie pick too.

 

[BracedMantis05]

hey Knightmare really appreciate all the effort you put into these drafts i was just wondering if you could tell me what sort of player josh kelly and nathan freeman are, who they both compare to and where you would rate freeman in your 2014 prospects? thanks

 

[MR]

Hey Knightmare, what are the chances of Brodie Grundy slipping to 7? Considering how Whitefield and Toumpas are likely locked at 1 and 2, Melbourne committing to two midfielders and WBD having two young and exciting ruckmen in Cordy and Roughead.

 

[blueiris]

Gundy wont slip past the Bulldogs at 6 or tho players Cordy and Roughead will improve Gundy is a class above both of them and is ready to play afl tomorrow

 

[Knightmare]

hey Knightmare really appreciate all the effort you put into these drafts i was just wondering if you could tell me what sort of player josh kelly and nathan freeman are, who they both compare to and where you would rate freeman in your 2014 prospects? thanks

Freeman has been really excellent of late and is moving into my top 30 prospects for next year and close to my top 20.

Both play as midfielders.

Kelly is shaping by the day as the more likely no.2 minidraft selection. Classy user of the footy by foot and is that class above. Not a big build yet but has a Dal Santo type feel to his game.

Freeman has some Dangerfield to him. Can really do some damage through the midfield and when he pushes forward.

Hey Knightmare, what are the chances of Brodie Grundy slipping to 7? Considering how Whitefield and Toumpas are likely locked at 1 and 2, Melbourne committing to two midfielders and WBD having two young and exciting ruckmen in Cordy and Roughead.

It is a potential scenario. The odds at this stage are he is gone by pick 7, but if Melbourne and the Western Bull Dogs look to midfielders it is entirely possible that Grundy slides - even though he is such a high quality immediate ruckman who has improved as much as any over these past two seasons.

Gundy wont slip past the Bulldogs at 6 or tho players Cordy and Roughead will improve Gundy is a class above both of them and is ready to play afl tomorrow

Correct in your annalysis of Grundy but I'm not sure why Minson can't continue on his good form of this year and remain the no.1 ruckman. 639 hitouts is not a bad effort from the big fella and he has plenty more years left in him.

 

[Igloo]

We have 3 competent ruckmen on our list already, and will upgrade Campbell at the end of the year most likely. We will only go for midfielders.

 

[blueiris]

We have 3 competent ruckmen on our list already, and will upgrade Campbell at the end of the year most likely. We will only go for midfielders.

true but none of them are as good as grundy midfields are good but if you dont have a good ruckman there's no point i belive you should look at a key forward

 

[Igloo]

true but none of them are as good as grundy midfields are good but if you dont have a good ruckman there's no point i belive you should look at a key forward

True, none are as good as Grundy (as he will be, anyway) but we are in desperate need for midfielders. If Minson stays, we definitely wont look at him.
Key forwards, none are good enough for our picks. Could go for Hogan, but Melbourne can offer better.

We already have good, young inside midfielders, we'll go for pace and skill now.