I for one have absolutely no idea when it comes to phantom drafts and the potential draftees, though one thing I’ve taken from the last few days and am still struggling to believe, is that this draft must be so bare if Collingwood is willing to throw away pick 27, which must be seen to hold less promise of gathering a decent player than the likes of what Collingwood (with its massive scout recruitment department) could feel confident of gaining, compared to the last few years drafting where they’ve found absolute gems still there at picks 60-70+
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Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft
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I for one have absolutely no idea when it comes to phantom drafts and the potential draftees, though one thing I’ve taken from the last few days and am still struggling to believe, is that this draft must be so bare if Collingwood is willing to throw away pick 27, which must be seen to hold less promise of gathering a decent player than the likes of what Collingwood (with its massive scout recruitment department) could feel confident of gaining, compared to the last few years drafting where they’ve found absolute gems still there at picks 60-70+
manny100
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Hi KM, are the Dees a chance to pick up Freeman at pick 9. Who else would be in the frame around this pick given the Dees needs?
BracedMantis05
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how will the recent trading and expected trading of picks effect the top end of the draft with gws now having pick 2, melbourne having pick 9 and the pies looking likely having pick 6 and west coast having pick 11?
Zach Package
Prespakis2Tsatas
IMO Billings is right in the mix for pick 2 now, he's something GWS don't really have.
Definitely looks more interesting than before, when it was basically a given that GWS would take boyd and Melbourne would take Aish.
HereIam86
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Callum Twomey reckons the Giants are big fans of Bontempelli http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-10-18/who-will-land-josh-kelly
Knightmare
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It's not going to make a major difference with the picks.
The first round is so even I couldn't care less if I came into the first round at pick 2 or pick 16. I'd rather have the quantity of picks in that range this year with the evenness of the group.
No clubs in the top 10 have been rumoured as particularly keen on Sheed, and if he's not there Acres almost certainly will be so West Coast would do fine with either selection.
Knightmare
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It is a very shallow draft. The top end would be interesting if Jack Martin and Jesse Hogan were in it then Luke McDonald wasn't a F/S selection but it's not a year you would want to be taking too many guys outside the top 20, maybe 25.
There will still be guys picked in the 30s and 40s with the ability to make it and probably a couple do but it will take clever scouting to find those guys.
Stay with us for the first two rounds of the draft but after that feel free to head off to the races.
It will be interesting to see who GWS take at 2. I'm not yet certain who will be their selection. Bontempelli has been rumoured recently and seems to be the flavour of the day. Josh Kelly, Jack Billings and James Aish are the relatively conservative selections who also likely receive strong consideration at that pick. Scharenberg probably not.
GWS just seem to like their Victorians looking at their drafting history and seeing their scouts at TAC.
Melbourne at 9 I'm guessing Nathan Freeman if available as the player most heavily linked to Melbourne. They need pace and more midfield help so while he may not be an immediate player he's probably their guy.
I like Matt Sully.
Joel Tippett is a big body, very tall for a key defender and an extrodinary athlete for a guy at that size but Sully is the footballer and the guy who I think has an opportunity to make the grade and become more than just a good state leaguer.
I think Freeman likely will be the eventual pick at 9.
Melbourne need more outside pace and more midfielders (inside and outside).
Bontempelli and Salem are others I'd expect Melbourne look at.
GWS could do something different at pick 2 so that may change the dynamic of the top 5/6 slightly.
Melbourne at 9 probably take Freeman based on rumours.
Collingwood I'm not expecting to do anything too out of the ordinary. Bontempelli is being linked to Collingwood. Lennon is another possible consideration. If someone from that expected top 5 slides then they may be the eventual selection. Taylor and Salem are others I've heard connected to Collingwood of late. But then again if anyone wants to elevate their draft stocks they connect themselves to Collingwood so I wouldn't read too much into that.
I'll hopefully get an update up some time Saturday/Sunday so I'll put further thought into how the movement in picks will change things.
manny100
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Hi KM,
AFL recruiters seem to develop strong mind sets and exclude those outside those parameters. For example after Lions won 3 everyone wanted strong mids - The Dees went for McLean and Sylvia - both ok but not champs. Look for rookie rucks because of development time - Grundy slips as a result. This year its big strong mids - no doubt a gun smaller mid(s) will slip as a result.
AFL recruiters seem to develop strong mind sets and exclude those outside those parameters. For example after Lions won 3 everyone wanted strong mids - The Dees went for McLean and Sylvia - both ok but not champs. Look for rookie rucks because of development time - Grundy slips as a result. This year its big strong mids - no doubt a gun smaller mid(s) will slip as a result.
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Who is our resident GWS list manager you go to Knightmare? Keen to hear if Max King may potentially be pre listed by the club and on traded next week..
Knightmare
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Don't sleep on the strong bodied mids. Looking back at that terrible 2003 draft Sylvia (3) and McLean (5) relatively were strong selections that year at their draft positions. They certainly did better than Farren Ray (4), Kepler Bradley (6), Kane Tenace (7), Raphael Clarke (8), David Trotter (9) and Ryley Dunn (10) as those next selections in the draft.
But in saying that your point is valid and something I strongly agree with. There are trends in the draft where clubs sometimes go too far in one direction, and when that's the case you can often capitalise as Collingwood did last year with Grundy.
It's an interesting comment on the smalls perhaps going too low. A Lewis Taylor may go lower than he perhaps could but otherwise I think AFL clubs rate the sub 175cm types roughly as they should if not slightly overrate them, particular when guys like Billy Hartung are being discussed as first rounders and Jay Kennedy-Harris and Jarman Impey are discussed as second rounders. The smalls while they are more ready to go rarely have that same improvement left in their games whereas those taller types can develop into their 20s.
My pick at the moment of the "type" being undervalued is the vanilla midfielder. Matt Crouch, Dominic Sheed, Luke Dunstan. There will be some excellent midfielders who may not have the flash of some of the others but they'll have better careers than most. Clubs continue to go for those guys with x-factors and overlook the sure thing midfielder who will continue to exceed exceptions as Oliver Wines and Nick Vlastuin did last year after being given similar tags.
Max King may well be traded on. It probably won't be for more than a late 2nd/ 3rd rounder but it may get done. GWS don't have room to accomodate him on that list I wouldn't have thought with all those talls they have so he'll be on the market you'd think.
KM,
I'd like to know your thoughts on Melbourne's trading to date (Michie, Vince & Tyson)?
Especially on the Tyson & associated picks for #2 deal?
I checked your 2011 phantom draft & observed you had Tyson at #2 in your power rankings.
Thanks in advance
I'd like to know your thoughts on Melbourne's trading to date (Michie, Vince & Tyson)?
Especially on the Tyson & associated picks for #2 deal?
I checked your 2011 phantom draft & observed you had Tyson at #2 in your power rankings.
Thanks in advance
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Hey Knightmare, what are your thoughts on drafting Dunstan at 11? He does fit a need at WC, seems capable of playing straight away, how does he compare to someone like Wines taken last year?
clipboardbinocs
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Dom Sheed can kick the football, vanilla footballers are one paced and average kicks.
Kids say the darndest things.
Kids say the darndest things.
Knightmare
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I like what Melbourne are doing adding more midfielders but more importantly I like the players Melbourne are making moves for.
Michie is an excellent get and for pick 54 is a bargain. He needs to stay healthy first which is the issue and he won't make it until then but he's AFL ready and can step into the Melbourne midfield and front half as a rotational mid and make you better as a clear best 22 player.
Bernie Vince isn't necessarily a guy I'd want leading my club but he's got talent and will again make the Melbourne midfield better and much better being the classy talent he is. He'll make the key forwards better while he's at it. He's a guy Paul Roos I'd back in to control.
More picks in a shallow draft aren't going to help Melbourne move up the ladder but adding better midfielders will help the youth develop by exposing them to higher level talents and more experience which Melbourne have badly missed in past seasons.
Dom Tyson also I like and I wouldn't lose sleep over losing pick 2. You may get someone better with pick 9. Tyson like Michie has had his injury issues but he's ready to go and is an exceptionally high production midfielder who has mostly lacked opportunities playing too often as a sub for GWS. If he gets healthy he'll really be a factor and be someone who can help make Melbourne better.
In short. Good moves Melbourne. More experience and more midfielders who can play needed to join Melbourne and that's happened which is a positive step forward in the right direction after 1000s of games delisted in the recent seasons past which is never a good formula.
Knightmare
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Wines is the better of the two and I'd say Wines probably compares favourably to everyone in this draft at this stage given what Wines has already achieved at senior level and few sure things this year.
Pick 11 is around the pick I'd be prepaired to pay for Dunstan. I'd take Crouch/Sheed first if they are there but I would certainly from that point start strongly considering Dunstan even if he probably doesn't go that high on draft day.
Dunstan is a high character inside guy who will distribute by hand and get his hands dirty. He's a type every good team could do with.
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You drunk Pav?
clipboardbinocs
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Has anyone ever told you, you are one strange unit.
clipboardbinocs
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What in your opinion differentiates Crouch from Dunstan?
Knightmare
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Crouch is the higher production guy and has put up some incredible numbers at all levels.
I feel his edge comes from what he does inside the contest. His ability to win the ball inside is the best in the draft because he has the unique ability of getting to the contest first every time by reading the play before it unfolds better than anyone else and reacting first and getting to the best positions inside the contest. It's just natural for him and puts him in my view a class above all the other draftees. It's a talent which will translate to the next level and allow him to continue accumulating and winning the ball inside the contest at will as Sam Mitchell does.
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Thanks heaps.
I think this is a real point of weakness in the current WC side. Not so much the ability to win clearances or contested ball, but moreso mids who are able to a) have the strength to maintain possession under pressure at stoppages and b) distribute it effectively.
We definitely need some outside class, but the need for a strong or big bodied dynamic clearance player by hand, pace or foot, trumps this.
Operating under the premise that Sheed, who I acknowledge doesn't fit this exact criteria is magically gone by 11, would Crouch be your preference, or is there a player with different qualities whose class you believes trumps our need for talent around the stoppages?
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