Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Knightmare]

Thanks KM.

Does anyone know where I could find those 2-3 min draftee highlight vids?

In previous years they would be on YouTube, however I can't seem to locate any this year.

There are bits and pieces on youtube of some of the prospects.

AFL.com will at some point I'm sure put up some short clips and bios of many of the draft prospects. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

How the hell can you compare Acres to Embley?

Embley was an outside seagull who lived off a Norm Smith for 7 years, Acres wins his own ball.

Did you just look at his height, look at Embleys see that they both played through the middle and joined the dots?

Not a fan of a 250 gamer? I'd say he's had a pretty strong career. You have to do something right to hang around in the competition as long as Embley.

Not everyone has to be Chris Judd/Ben Cousins/Daniel Kerr. Embley was still a successful component of that winning team.

Acres is the more willing of the two to go inside and bang, you are correct. But as with Embley, Acres to this point has mostly played outside, is a relatively tall midfielder who can similarly hit the scoreboard when he wants to.

I'm just not so keen to compare every tall midfielder to Pendlebury or Fyfe because he's neither. It's not a fair comparison for any draft prospect with few projecting as that level of talent.

KM, is there a chance Freeman lasts to pick 15? And do you know if the Swans are interested in him if he is there?

Freeman most likely is gone by pick 15. It's plausible that he's available but I'd plan for him not to be there and pleasantly surprised if he is.

 

[Richo83]

Wasn't Fyfe more of a forward prospect when he was young though? The Embley comparison would only really work if Acres was almost entirely outside. Like you compare Bontempelli, who is fairly outside to Mundy, who is a full time inside midfielder.

 

[clipboardbinocs]

Where did Acres play his football for Wests?

 

[Kawalsky]

Where did Acres play his football for Wests?

Half back, midfield, then half forward for last games. Usually on a 3 way interchange via the bench for West Perth.
Comparison to Embley a bit off i think. Embley played in a mostly winning team.Acres has played 3 years in a team that if lucky won a game (had to find his own ball) and still performed and played mainly off the halfback.

 

[Richo83]

Half back, midfield, then half forward for last games. Usually on a 3 way interchange via the bench for West Perth

I suspect Pav's question was rhetorical. How inside was his play?

 

[Kawalsky]

I suspect Pav's question was rhetorical. How inside was his play?

I would say most of his clearance work - stoppage work was him getting first touch of the ball and his tackle count was very good, considering how hard it was to get a tackle registered against your name from the stats guys. Acres isn't a typically inside player like say Nick Robinson from WA (West Perth) who smashes his way into packs and is always at the bottom of them. Acres reads the play so well that he knows when to go in and when to stay outside. I think this is why he looks like he finds it so easy and has more time to get rid of the ball.

 

[Richo83]

I would say most of his clearance work - stoppage work was him getting first touch of the ball and his tackle count was very good, considering how hard it was to get a tackle registered against your name from the stats guys. Acres isn't a typically inside player like say Nick Robinson from WA (West Perth) who smashes his way into packs and is always at the bottom of them. Acres reads the play so well that he knows when to go in and when to stay outside. I think this is why he looks like he finds it so easy and has more time to get rid of the ball.

What do you think of the comparison to Embley?

 

[clipboardbinocs]

Half back, midfield, then half forward for last games. Usually on a 3 way interchange via the bench for West Perth.
Comparison to Embley a bit off i think. Embley played in a mostly winning team.Acres has played 3 years in a team that if lucky won a game (had to find his own ball) and still performed and played mainly off the halfback.

It was rhetorical, and this sums it up perfectly.

I just think Knightmare hasn't actually seen Acres in his natural environment had has just guessed.

Acres is clearance midfielder who makes it look easy and rarely gets caught.

Embley was a handball receive player and a forward runner, it just agitates me when tag is falsely assigned to a player by someone who clearly hasn't seen enough to make an informed judgement.

 

[fronkalicious]

Mitchell was picked in the 30s. Barlow is the most successful mature recruited midfielder we've seen. You can't get a Michael Barlow every year as a rookie.
I'd say the same about outside types every year.
Colquhoun was available in the PSD and Sumner could be had at 55.
The year before that Aaron Hall as a PSD selection has proven to be an excellent get at that stage and the year before that Jason Johannison was had as a rookie, Aaron Mullett was had as a rookie, Luke Dahlhaus was had as a rookie, Michael Hibberd and Bachar Houli in the PSD with Arryn Siposs and Paul Seedsman selected at 76/77 respectively.
Every year there are outside types who break through in a big way as rookies whereas early draft so few even make the grade and those that do are no better than those taken later in the draft.

Draft combine testing means little. I prefer watching what guys can do on the field, not what they can do in a gym. What they do in a gym doesn't tell you who the guy is on the field. Joel Wilkinson had the quickest ever recorded 20m sprint time at 2.75sec and yet he doesn't take on the game or break the lines. But then you look at Lewis Jetta who scored from memory a 2.95 or 2.96sec and he's the most dangerous linebreaker in the competition.
And then those who perform well in the kick tests are rarely the best kicks in the draft. James Tsitas won the kicking test this year but anyone who watches him would describe him as one of the least damaging kicks in this draft with his limited penetration and hurt factor whereas Luke Reynolds can score from memory what was a 22 and be the most damaging kick in this draft with the way he can swivel onto his left boot and lace out hit those inside 50 targets.
I could not care less who scores what in any test at the draft combine. Show me you can do it on the field.
Liber whether he is sub 3sec over 20m is of little relevance. Pace is not what makes him special. Neither are his footskills. What makes Liber special is his hardness at the footy, ability to win the clearances, win the contested ball and tackle. Crouch is no different. Neither is Andrew Swallow. Luke Ball, Brad Sewell, Scott Thompson, Michael Barlow, Toby Greene, Daniel Kerr, Joel Corey, Matthew Boyd, Daniel Cross, Shane Tuck, Brock McLean, James Magner all the same story. They're all quality and you'd love to have any of them on your team because they excel in the most vital aspects of the game.

Clubs can move away from pure contested ball winning midfielders all they want. There will always be someone who capitalises on that poor tendency by anyone who overlook these types.

Greene is exceptional. He's had his issues this year struggling with the tag after his ripping preseason. Some people have a short memory but before the new boys on the block this season Greene was putting up some historic numbers for his age (28.4 disposals per game) as a first year player just recruited from the juniors. He's an exceptional inside mid who is as hard as nails, wins all the contested ball and tackles like a machine. I'd want that on my team and would pay a premier to get that.
It's clear that we have different values as to what makes a winning midfield.

On Gardiner I wouldn't consider 192cm undersized. For a key forward it's shorter than you'd ideally like, key defender no problem. He's exceptionally strong bodied and is the same height as that Darren Glass guy who doesn't lose all that many 1v1 contests and has been the premier key defenders these past seasons. Sure some monster key forwards are coming along at 200cm+ but with Gardiner's growing strength if he can do as Glass has then it may not be an issue if he can as Glass does continue to outpoint his direct opponent.

I'd be more than happy to take McCarthy and Gardiner in the first round with both exceptional talents for their types and beyond Boyd those only other KPPs worth taking first round.



Salem has to be there to be picked which is no guarantee.

He's someone who even a year and a half out from the draft was heavily linked to Richmond so it's a possibility but not assured.

Love your stuff km but I cannot agree with liberatore being grouped with those players (except Kerr). Libba also has outstanding vision and spacial awareness. I honestly believe he is the most underrated player in the game. His foot skills are also outstanding.

That's a nice group of players you've listed, but Libba is in a tier above them (again, apart from Kerr in his prime) IMO.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Love your stuff km but I cannot agree with liberatore being grouped with those players (except Kerr). Libba also has outstanding vision and spacial awareness. I honestly believe he is the most underrated player in the game. His foot skills are also outstanding.

That's a nice group of players you've listed, but Libba is in a tier above them (again, apart from Kerr in his prime) IMO.

Libbas got a long way to go before he reaches the heights of Kerr in his prime

 

[Rodriguez Mendoza]

Hi Knightmare, why don't have Nick Favretto on your list anymore? I'd be very happy if Geelong used a rookie or late round selection on him.

 

[george2]

Hey Knightmare, if McCarthy and Marsh are gone by Freos first pick, who do you think would be a good fit for us? Do you think taking Gardiner as KPB would be a good option? Do you think hewill be a good KPB?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, why don't have Nick Favretto on your list anymore? I'd be very happy if Geelong used a rookie or late round selection on him.

Favretto is someone we haven't seen enough of against strong enough competition.

He's exceptionally outside despite his height/size but late draft/rookie could be a savy recruit as a potential role player.

Hey Knightmare, if McCarthy and Marsh are gone by Freos first pick, who do you think would be a good fit for us? Do you think taking Gardiner as KPB would be a good option? Do you think hewill be a good KPB?

Gardiner perhaps. He's a safe selection as a key defender.

Fremantle like the players who are relatively taller by position (Acres/Bontempelli) so they'd have to be the strong considerations if McCarthy is not available as players who can become midfielders but also have the versatility to play on flanks which to me is a good fit in Fremantle's situation.

 

[Chris25]

Favretto is someone we haven't seen enough of against strong enough competition.

Wait, what?

He spent the year in the SANFL Reserves, and even made his league debut. Using that argument, we haven't seen enough of anyone in the entire draft.

 

[raman]

KM, is there a chance Freeman lasts to pick 15?

Only if Bontempelli lasts to 14

 

[Baird]

Does anybody know where I can find some footage of draft prospects? There's been no videos from the AFL website

 

[Rummy]

Hi Knightmare, I’m just curious as to why you would think Collingwood wishes to swap picks 11 & 27 for West Coast’s pick 6?

Do you think they are hoping to get Sheed or even McCarthy given their need for a KPF, or even just perhaps hoping that a one of the favoured top 5 might unexpectedly slide as the draft order did last year?

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Hi Knightmare, I’m just curious as to why you would think Collingwood wishes to swap picks 11 & 27 for West Coast’s pick 6?

Do you think they are hoping to get Sheed or even McCarthy given their need for a KPF, or even just perhaps hoping that a one of the favoured top 5 might unexpectedly slide as the draft order did last year?

Really?

Kennedy
Resting Ruckman - Cox / Lycett
Darling
McGovern
McInness

We'll be going mids with our first 2 or 3 picks

I'd say we're hoping for Sheed and/or Acres to be available at 11 thus giving us a "free" pick

Would much rather do 6 + 24 + Player(?) for 10 and 11 though

 

[Scottabe_pendles]

Really?

Kennedy
Resting Ruckman - Cox / Lycett
Darling
McGovern
McInness

We'll be going mids with our first 2 or 3 picks

I'd say we're hoping for Sheed and/or Acres to be available at 11 thus giving us a "free" pick

Would much rather do 6 + 24 + Player(?) for 10 and 11 though

Think you got that the wrong way -- that was collingwood wanting a KPF in the question

 

[Rummy]

Think you got that the wrong way -- that was collingwood wanting a KPF in the question

Yes Scottable, I should have made it a bit clearer, but it was about Collingwood seeking a KPF.

Other than Cloke all we have is Paine who many hold question marks over and wonder if he’s ever going to make it at AFL level. Lynch would’ve been delisted if it wasn’t for the fact he had another year to run on his contract. Reid is a good forward but even better defender so will likely go back to defense.

I know we’re seeking White from Sydney but what if that was just before Collingwood saw a sudden opportunity to grab a KPF like McCarthy (who was thought to likely be selected before Collingwood’s first pick at 10). And by now being able to get McCarthy, that this would therefore negate our need for White at all. Or they are confident our third round pick would be enough to satisfy Sydney for White and they simply hope to get both him and McCarthy in case one of them doesn’t develop as hoped into a best 22 player.

 

[Lefthanded]

#1 GWS

Sorry if it's already been brought to your attention or it's something you can't fix but noticed that in your draft order (at least 1st 2 rounds but presumably all through) you have North ahead of Lions. Should be the other way around.

Otherwise great work!

 

[tigs2010]

Hi Knightmare, I’m just curious as to why you would think Collingwood wishes to swap picks 11 & 27 for West Coast’s pick 6?

Do you think they are hoping to get Sheed or even McCarthy given their need for a KPF, or even just perhaps hoping that a one of the favoured top 5 might unexpectedly slide as the draft order did last year?

Collingwood want Freeman I believe. So do Melbourne. I'm guessing if Melbourne downgrade to 9, that is why. And then Collingwood will try upgrade ahead of them.

 

[Knightmare]

Does anybody know where I can find some footage of draft prospects? There's been no videos from the AFL website

Some limited bits and pieces on youtube.

AFL.com I'm assuming over coming weeks catch up once the free agent/trade week action draws towards a close.

Hi Knightmare, I’m just curious as to why you would think Collingwood wishes to swap picks 11 & 27 for West Coast’s pick 6?

Do you think they are hoping to get Sheed or even McCarthy given their need for a KPF, or even just perhaps hoping that a one of the favoured top 5 might unexpectedly slide as the draft order did last year?

Collingwood may like someone at 6 who isn't expected to be available at 10 (perhaps a Lennon/Bontempelli/Sheed/McCarthy as some examples).

It may come down to Collingwood adding a lot of players through trade week and not needing pick 27.

I'm not expecting a slider from that top 5, but entirely plausible with Kolodjashnij testing well and Lennon someone else some clubs like.

We'll know more about who will be available and who teams like once trade month draws to a close.

 

[maverick001]

Conversely it would seem to me the Eagles think they can still get Sheed at 11, or are happy to take someone like Acres at 11. Personally I hope the trade is made so we still have pick 24, trade 27 for Yeo and take either one of the two West Aussies at 11. Although I think we should be asking for 10 not 11, although there could be a gentleman's agreement there.

 

[womble54]

Hi KM,

Have heard quite abit of comment that this draft looks very average after probably pick 30-40. As a clear avid draft specialist for many years now, is this the single shallowest draft you feel you've been actively involved in dissecting? Even the top 20 just feel very "meh" after pick 1. Dogs have pick 4 and I can't get tremendously excited even at that end...? Give me some hope or release me to focus on spring carnival would ya?

Cheers